图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report is from Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on macroeconomic trends and major asset classes, particularly in the context of the U.S. economy and global markets [1][5][10]. Core Insights and Arguments Macroeconomic Trends - The report discusses the recent rebound of the U.S. dollar, attributing it to extreme overselling conditions and a divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and Europe [11][15]. - The narrative of "de-dollarization" is highlighted as a factor contributing to the dollar's weakness, but the report emphasizes the need for objective validation of this narrative in trading [15][25]. - The dollar index is expected to find support around the 96 level, with a potential rebound anticipated [15][42]. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The report notes that the U.S. bond market has remained relatively calm despite the discussions surrounding the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a lack of consensus on monetary policy direction [22][42]. - The liquidity conditions in the U.S. money market are described as tight, which does not support a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet [25][42]. - The report suggests that the Fed's potential shift towards a more conservative stance under Warsh could impact market expectations regarding future interest rate movements [21][42]. Commodity and Currency Performance - The report provides a weekly performance overview of major commodities, noting significant fluctuations in prices, particularly in precious metals and energy [121][123]. - The performance of various currencies against the U.S. dollar is analyzed, with the report indicating a generally bullish sentiment towards Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan [41][42]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the relationship between commodity prices and inflation expectations, particularly in the context of gold and silver [125][132]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report includes detailed data on U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a mixed performance across different maturities, with the 10-year yield at 4.24% and a slight increase of 1.03 basis points [46]. - It also discusses the implications of the current economic conditions on the credit market, noting that the high yield credit spread remains a critical indicator of market sentiment [66][70]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to remain cautious and to consider the broader economic context when making investment decisions, particularly in light of potential volatility in the equity markets during earnings season [30][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into macroeconomic trends, monetary policy implications, and market performance across various asset classes.