Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing a 5% year-on-year growth in business volume, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The report recommends SF Express for its valuation and operational resilience, while also being optimistic about ZTO Express due to its increasing market share in the low-price segment [2] - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remain stable, and the report recommends Haicheng Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3] - The aviation sector is seeing a significant increase in passenger flow, with over 200 million people traveling during the New Year holiday, and the report recommends China Southern Airlines and Air China due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand [4] - The shipping sector shows a slight increase in container shipping indices, with potential benefits from geopolitical events affecting oil transportation. The report notes a 42.5% year-on-year increase in the crude oil transportation index [5] - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with a slight decrease in truck traffic on highways but overall competitive dividend yields compared to government bonds [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1%, with the aviation sector showing the highest increase at +4.8% and logistics experiencing the largest decline at -3.4% [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - Container shipping is stabilizing, with a slight increase in freight rates supported by seasonal demand. The report anticipates pressure on rates in mid-January due to expected capacity growth [21] - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [22] Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in November, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [54] - The report highlights that major airlines are expected to see significant profit increases due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [54][75] Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 8.94% and freight volume of 1.16% in November, indicating a positive trend in transportation demand [78] - The road sector experienced a slight decline in passenger traffic but an increase in freight volume, with competitive dividend yields noted for major road operators [83]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding and Zhongtong Express as favorable investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 6% in the development scale index for November, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines based on profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. - The shipping sector sees a stable demand for container transport, with COSCO Shipping announcing new ship orders valued at 7.88 billion yuan [5]. - The road and rail sector shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in truck traffic but a stable outlook for coal transportation [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 1.5% during the week of December 6-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1118.07 points, a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The oil shipping index BDTI is at 1383.6 points, down 1.7% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year [40]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.99% and international flights up by 7.78% [4]. - In October 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [60]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in October 2025 was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [81]. - National road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [86]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume for the week of December 1-7 was approximately 3.979 billion pieces, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in express delivery and aviation [2][4][6]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see a 7% year-on-year growth in business volume for October, with revenue projected to increase by 5% [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with domestic airlines expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization leading to higher ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector shows growth in oil and dry bulk transportation indices, with a notable increase in crude oil transportation rates [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Index Review - The transportation index rose by 1.6% during the week of November 8-14, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.7% [1][13]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by 7% in October, with a revenue increase of 5% expected [2]. - The report recommends SF Holding due to its valuation and operational resilience [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index shows a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, while domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals have increased by 3.29% year-on-year [3]. - Haichen Co. is recommended for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight volume increased by 2.78% year-on-year, with international flights seeing a 12.55% increase [4]. - The report recommends China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit growth from ticket price increases [4]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 3.6% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.6% [5]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][40]. Road and Rail - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2.07% decrease week-on-week [6]. - The overall performance of major highway operators is considered cost-effective, with dividend yields exceeding the ten-year government bond yield [6][84].

Industry Overview - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1058.17 points, up 3.6% week-on-week but down 26.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stands at 1495.1 points, down 3.6% week-on-week and down 33.6% year-on-year [1][5] - The Domestic Container Freight Index (PDCI) is at 1216 points, up 3.0% week-on-week and up 0.6% year-on-year [1][5] Express Delivery - The postal express volume decreased by 6.2% week-on-week, totaling approximately 4.261 billion pieces, but increased by 3.1% year-on-year [2] - The delivery volume was about 4.305 billion pieces, down 2.18% week-on-week and up 3.9% year-on-year [2] - Due to price increases in several grain-producing areas, the average price per express delivery is expected to rise [2] Logistics - The Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is at 3828 points, down 12.5% year-on-year and down 1.1% week-on-week [2] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices remained stable at 161 RMB/ton, down 6.92% year-on-year [2] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 89.7%, 84.6%, and 69.5% respectively, with slight increases in week-on-week comparisons [2] Aviation and Airports - The average daily number of flights in China is 14,482, an increase of 3.71% year-on-year [3] - Domestic flights average 12,265 per day, up 2.18% year-on-year, while international flights average 2,217, up 13.12% year-on-year [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 15.8% year-on-year [3] Shipping - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1411.4 points, up 3.9% week-on-week and up 51.4% year-on-year [5] - The product oil transportation index (BCTI) is at 645 points, up 4.4% week-on-week and up 32.3% year-on-year [5] - The dry bulk index (BDI) is at 2014.6 points, up 2.4% week-on-week and up 40.8% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports is 280.497 million tons, up 11.6% year-on-year and up 15.7% week-on-week [6] - The container throughput is 6.72 million TEUs, up 16.2% year-on-year and up 13.8% week-on-week [6] - The total number of trucks on highways is 57.572 million, down 2.49% week-on-week but up 4.40% year-on-year [6]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) is at 3981 points, down 8.5% year-on-year and up 0.30% month-on-month [1] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices are at 159 RMB/ton, down 6.31% year-on-year and stable month-on-month [1][3] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 85.3%, 79.4%, and 70.9% respectively, with PX down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, methanol down 1.8 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and ethylene glycol down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [1][3] Express Delivery - In August, express delivery volume grew approximately 12% year-on-year, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The total express delivery volume for the week of September 8-14 was about 3.83 billion pieces, down 0.67% month-on-month and up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.2% year-on-year to 7.37 RMB [2] Logistics - The chemical shipping prices remained stable, and there is a recommendation for Haichen Co. due to improved demand [3] - The CCPI and liquid chemical shipping prices indicate a challenging environment for chemical logistics [3] Aviation - In August, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with Spring Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The average daily flight operations increased by 6.05% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 5.39% and international flights up 10.03% [4] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $66.68/barrel, down 0.46% month-on-month and down 9.5% year-on-year [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1120.23 points, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 31.6% year-on-year [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 5.1% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 2179 points, up 4.3% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.8% month-on-month and 9.2% year-on-year, with container throughput up 0.1% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 57.71 million, up 6.17% month-on-month but down 0.58% year-on-year [6] - The dividend yield of major road operators is higher than the current yield of China's ten-year government bonds [6]

Market Overview - The transportation index increased by 1.5% during the week of September 6-12, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.4%, resulting in a 0.2% lead over the broader market, ranking 16th out of 29 sectors [1][2] - Among the sub-sectors, the shipping sector saw the highest increase of 3.7%, while the road transport sector experienced the largest decline of 0.8% [1][2] Industry Insights Express Delivery - It is anticipated that the express delivery volume in August will grow by approximately 12% year-on-year, with revenue expected to increase by about 6% [3] - During the week of September 1-7, the total collection volume for postal express reached approximately 3.856 billion pieces, a 0.03% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [3] - The average daily business volume is expected to exceed 500 million pieces, driven by the harvest season of specialty agricultural products [3] Logistics - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) stood at 3973 points, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% [4] - The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals was 159 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.31% but remaining stable month-on-month [4] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol were reported at 85.9%, 83.7%, and 71.3% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 2.3%, 2.7%, and 17.3% [4] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight volume across the country reached 15,059 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [5] - Eastern Airlines launched a new long-haul route from Shanghai to Auckland to Buenos Aires, which reduces travel time by 4-5 hours [5] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.99 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.27% [5] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was reported at 1125.3 points, a month-on-month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.4% [6] - The oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 3.3% week-on-week, reaching 1084.2 points, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [6] - The dry bulk freight index (BDI) rose by 5.6% week-on-week, indicating a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [6] Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at ports decreased by 5.4% week-on-week, totaling 259.535 million tons, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [7] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 54.36 million, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.61% [7] - The dividend yield of major road operators exceeded the yield of China's ten-year government bonds, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [7]

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth rate of 34%, leading among all express companies [1][2] - During the week of August 11-17, the total collection volume of postal express was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [1][2] - The total delivery volume during the same week was about 3.511 billion pieces, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 15.11% [1][2] - By July 2025, the year-on-year business volume growth rates for SF Express, Yunda, YTO, and Shentong are projected to be 33.7%, 7.6%, 20.8%, and 11.9% respectively, with market shares of 8.4%, 13.2%, 15.8%, and 13.3% [1][2] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to price increases in several grain-producing areas, and with the peak season approaching, it is expected that the price per express delivery will rise [1][2] Group 2: Logistics Sector - The chemical product price index (CCPI) in China is currently at 4024 points, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [3] - The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [3] - The operational rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 84.6%, 80.7%, and 65.1% respectively, with varying year-on-year changes [3] - The establishment of the "Haimorning Artificial Intelligence Research Institute" and "Haimorning Robotics Research Institute" aims to focus on advanced technologies in logistics [3] - The airline sector is experiencing an increase in average daily flights, with a year-on-year growth of 4.18% [3] Group 3: Shipping Industry - The crude oil transportation index has increased, while the domestic shipping index continues to rise [4] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.5% [4] - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) is at 1091 points, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [4] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 1950 points, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - The oil transportation sector is expected to see a demand boost due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical factors [4] Group 4: Road, Rail, and Port Operations - The total cargo throughput at ports decreased by 2.8% week-on-week, but increased by 3.8% year-on-year [5] - The total container throughput was 6.75 million TEUs, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [5] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 54.93 million, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [5] - The dividend yield of major highway operators is currently higher than the yield of China's ten-year government bonds, indicating attractive investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding in the express delivery segment and Hecun Co., Ltd. in the smart logistics space [2][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 15% year-on-year increase in business volume in July, but the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3%. The report anticipates a potential increase in ticket prices due to seasonal demand and price adjustments in production areas [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a stabilization in hazardous chemical water transport prices, with a recommendation for Hecun Co., Ltd. as it focuses on smart logistics and benefits from improving demand [3]. - The aviation sector is responding to regulatory changes aimed at curbing unhealthy competition, with a noted increase in flight operations and a recommendation for major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines due to expected profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.5% from August 9 to August 15, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 2.4%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The report indicates that the shipping sector is under pressure, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1193.34 points, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1460.19 points, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 52.9% year-on-year [20]. - Domestic shipping is showing a slight improvement, with the Domestic Container Freight Index (PDCI) at 1068 points, up 1.7% week-on-week and up 7.9% year-on-year [28]. Aviation and Airports - The report notes a slight increase in domestic flight operations, with an average of 17,225 flights per day, up 2.76% year-on-year. The report also highlights the release of a self-regulatory charter by the China Air Transport Association to combat unhealthy competition [4][49]. - The domestic air passenger volume in June 2025 was 54.01 million, a 3% increase year-on-year, while international passenger volume increased by 17% [52]. Rail and Road - The report indicates a stable upward trend in road transport, with a 2.44% year-on-year increase in truck traffic on highways. The railway sector also shows positive signs, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in freight volume for the Daqin Railway in July [73][78].