Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry Core Views - The logistics sector is seeing price increases due to a reduction in low-cost deliveries, benefiting leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a stable demand with a potential increase in oil transportation due to Venezuelan oil exports, which may positively impact the oil shipping market [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply optimization and rising ticket prices, with recommendations for China Southern Airlines and Air China [3] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index remained flat during the week of January 3-9, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.8%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [1][12] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is stabilizing with a good supply-demand relationship, and oil shipping is expected to rise due to the potential for Venezuelan oil to shift from black market to compliant market [20] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1194.89 points, up 4.2% week-on-week but down 22.8% year-on-year [21] - The domestic trade container freight index (PDCI) was 1337 points, down 0.4% week-on-week and down 1.0% year-on-year [28] Aviation and Airports - In November 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with domestic routes up 5% and international routes up 19% [59] - The average daily flights in the week of January 3-9, 2026, were 14,725, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year [3] Rail and Road - In November 2025, national railway passenger volume was 331 million, up 8.94% year-on-year, while freight volume was 46 million tons, up 1.16% year-on-year [83] - The national highway freight volume was 3.876 billion tons, up 3.57% year-on-year, but the number of trucks on highways decreased by 14.86% week-on-week [89]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing a 5% year-on-year growth in business volume, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The report recommends SF Express for its valuation and operational resilience, while also being optimistic about ZTO Express due to its increasing market share in the low-price segment [2] - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remain stable, and the report recommends Haicheng Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3] - The aviation sector is seeing a significant increase in passenger flow, with over 200 million people traveling during the New Year holiday, and the report recommends China Southern Airlines and Air China due to expected profit growth from optimized supply and demand [4] - The shipping sector shows a slight increase in container shipping indices, with potential benefits from geopolitical events affecting oil transportation. The report notes a 42.5% year-on-year increase in the crude oil transportation index [5] - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with a slight decrease in truck traffic on highways but overall competitive dividend yields compared to government bonds [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 0.7% during the week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1%, with the aviation sector showing the highest increase at +4.8% and logistics experiencing the largest decline at -3.4% [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - Container shipping is stabilizing, with a slight increase in freight rates supported by seasonal demand. The report anticipates pressure on rates in mid-January due to expected capacity growth [21] - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [22] Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in November, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [54] - The report highlights that major airlines are expected to see significant profit increases due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [54][75] Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger volume of 8.94% and freight volume of 1.16% in November, indicating a positive trend in transportation demand [78] - The road sector experienced a slight decline in passenger traffic but an increase in freight volume, with competitive dividend yields noted for major road operators [83]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 5% in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached approximately 180.6 billion pieces, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [2]. - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remained stable, and the report recommends Haichen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,612 flights per day, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector indicates a mixed performance, with container shipping rates showing a slight increase, while dry bulk shipping rates have decreased. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil tanker operations [5]. - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with highway freight traffic increasing by 2.02% week-on-week, and the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume [6][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.3% during the week of December 20-26, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.9%. The logistics sector had the highest gain at 5.5%, while the aviation sector saw a decline of 0.7% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The report notes a slowdown in container shipping declines, with support from seasonal demand and long-term contracts. However, it warns of potential downward pressure on rates in January due to increased capacity [24]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1,146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [25]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a total passenger volume of 60.17 million in November, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [58]. - The report highlights that airlines are expected to see significant profit increases in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The report indicates that national railway passenger volume reached 331 million in November, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%, while freight volume was 460 million tons, up 1.16% [83]. - The highway freight traffic showed a slight increase, with a total of 55.44 million trucks passing through highways during the week of December 16-21 [89].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding and Zhongtong Express as favorable investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 6% in the development scale index for November, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines based on profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. - The shipping sector sees a stable demand for container transport, with COSCO Shipping announcing new ship orders valued at 7.88 billion yuan [5]. - The road and rail sector shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in truck traffic but a stable outlook for coal transportation [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 1.5% during the week of December 6-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1118.07 points, a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The oil shipping index BDTI is at 1383.6 points, down 1.7% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year [40]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.99% and international flights up by 7.78% [4]. - In October 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [60]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in October 2025 was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [81]. - National road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [86]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume for the week of December 1-7 was approximately 3.979 billion pieces, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for companies in the logistics and aviation sectors, specifically highlighting SF Holding and China Southern Airlines as key investment opportunities [2][3]. Core Insights - The logistics sector is benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a notable rise in express delivery volumes during the peak season [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery, with an increase in flight operations and passenger volumes, indicating a positive trend for airline profitability [3]. - The shipping industry shows signs of improvement, particularly in dry bulk transportation, driven by increased cargo demand and adverse weather conditions affecting vessel turnover [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.5% during the week of November 22-28, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.6% [12]. Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a total collection volume of approximately 4.126 billion packages, a week-on-week increase of 1.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.63% [2]. - The report recommends SF Holding due to its valuation, operational resilience, and improved shareholder returns [2]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased by 4.16% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.80% and international flights up by 12.41% [3]. - The report highlights the potential for profit growth in the aviation sector due to supply constraints from manufacturers and improved ticket pricing [3]. - Recommended stocks include China Southern Airlines and Air China [3]. Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to 2409 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.8% and a year-on-year increase of 62.9% [4]. - The report notes that the dry bulk market is experiencing a positive shift, with increased demand for coal and grain shipments [4]. Road and Rail - The report indicates a stable upward trend in the road transport sector, with a year-on-year increase in truck traffic on highways [5]. - The railway sector also shows positive growth, with passenger turnover increasing by 10.14% year-on-year [86].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding as a preferred investment choice due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector experienced an 8% year-on-year growth in business volume in October, with a total of approximately 44.19 billion parcels collected, reflecting a 4.72% increase from the previous week and an 11.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is encouraged to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector shows a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,777 flights per day, marking a 3.27% year-on-year growth [4]. - The shipping sector saw a rise in oil and dry bulk transportation indices, with the BDTI index increasing by 1.9% week-on-week and 58.2% year-on-year [5]. - The road and rail sector reported a decrease in truck traffic on highways, with a total of 57.83 million trucks passing through last week, reflecting a 2.57% increase week-on-week and a 5.30% increase year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index fell by 4.8% during the week of November 15-21, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 3.8% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping price index (CCFI) was 1,122.79 points, up 2.6% week-on-week but down 23.8% year-on-year [22]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) reached 1,445.4 points, reflecting a 1.9% increase week-on-week and a 58.2% increase year-on-year [34]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - In October 2025, the civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [54]. - The average daily flight operations increased by 3.27% year-on-year, with international flights showing an 11.81% increase [4]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The national railway passenger volume in October was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [75]. - The national highway freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, showing a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [80]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery business revenue in October reached 131.67 billion yuan, a 4.7% year-on-year increase [2].

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 3.79%, but trading volume remained above 20 billion, showing an increase from the previous 17 billion [8][19] - The market adjustment was a natural pullback after a previous policy-driven surge, with a focus on sectors like electricity, chemicals, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and energy storage, which performed well [8][9] - The themes of anti-involution and price increases are spreading, aligning with market demands for "high cuts and low" [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 89.33 times, with a median of 44.73 times, indicating a decrease in valuation [22][30] - The trading volume for the week was 4.922 billion shares, a decrease of 17.23% from the previous week, while the trading amount was 113.591 billion yuan, down 21.37% [26][19] - The margin financing balance increased to 7.951 billion yuan, up by 0.47 billion yuan from the previous week [28][19] Group 3 - Two new stocks were listed this week: Danna Biological and Zhongcheng Consulting, with significant first-day price increases of 497.08% and 170.08% respectively [32][33] - As of November 7, 2025, there are 282 companies listed on the North Exchange [32] - Next week, one company (Nante Technology) is scheduled for subscription, and two companies (Tongbao Optoelectronics, Agricultural University Technology) are set for review [37] Group 4 - Among the North Exchange stocks, 52 increased while 229 decreased, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.23 [40] - The top gainers included Caneng Electric (+31.13%) and Anda Technology (+20.38%) [41][40] - The top five stocks by turnover rate were Caneng Electric, Jinhua New Materials, and Deer Chemical, indicating high trading activity [46]

Core Insights - The surge in stock prices for CATL and other companies in the lithium battery sector indicates a strong market sentiment driven by increased production expectations and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [1][2] Group 1: Lithium Battery Production - Lithium battery production has exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in orders driven by explosive growth in overseas energy storage demand. Major battery manufacturers are nearing full capacity for 2026 orders, with Q3 production expected to rise by 15%-20% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The supply-demand dynamics in the lithium battery sector have shifted positively, leading to strong performance and low valuations, which presents a high-low switching logic for investors [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery market is advancing faster than anticipated, with current valuations still at historical lows. The technology has moved beyond the laboratory phase, and upcoming evaluations by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to provide further funding support for key players like CATL and BYD [2] - The mid-term review of a 6 billion yuan special fund is a short-term catalyst that could unlock additional subsidy applications for solid-state battery projects [2] Group 3: Price Recovery Expectations - The expectation of price recovery in the lithium battery supply chain is driven by anti-involution policies, with lithium salt prices and processing fees having reached a low point in mid-2025. The cost center for lithium carbonate is projected to rise, indicating a potential price increase cycle in 2026 [2] Group 4: ETF Overview - The New Energy Vehicle Leading ETF (159637) tracks the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index and includes 50 leading companies across the upstream and downstream of the new energy vehicle industry, ensuring no style drift in its investments [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shentong Express [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.025 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.02%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 453 million yuan, up 3.73% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter faced pressure from price wars, but the company managed to balance volume and profit, with a focus on maintaining stable growth in business volume [5] - The company is expected to benefit from price increases in core regions starting in August, which could enhance single-ticket revenue and profit margins [5] - Continuous improvement in core competitiveness and network expansion is noted, with significant investments in automation and capacity upgrades [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 1.383 billion, 1.685 billion, and 2.003 billion yuan respectively, indicating growth rates of 33.0%, 21.8%, and 18.9% [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025E is 57.483 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9% [4] - The expected net profit for 2025E is 1.383 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 20 [4] - The company aims for a gross margin of 5.6% in 2025E, with an ROE of 12.6% [4]