社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 11 月 16 日 社服与消费视角点评 10 月 国内宏观数据 社零稳步缓增长，文旅服务消费表现良好 国家统计局等部门公布了部分 2025 年 10 月国内宏观数据。其中，10 月社 零总额 4.6 万亿元，yoy+2.9%；10 月餐饮收入 5199 亿元，yoy+3.8%。10 月服务业 PMI 为 50.2%，高于 50%临界点，最新一期 9 月消费者信心指数 略有好转但仍处低位。我们维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 2025 年 10 月消费数据整体运行平稳，受节假日景气度因素影响文旅服 务消费表现良好。我们建议关注有望受旅游出行消费需求复苏而实现业 绩加速恢复的旅游综合服务标的岭南控股、同程旅行，受益于商务和会 展业复苏的米奥会展；受益于商旅出行恢复的演艺、景区、酒店标的如 天目湖、丽江股份、宋城演艺、中青旅、锦江酒店、君亭酒店、首旅酒 店等；本土餐饮消费代表同庆楼；演艺演出产业链优质标的锋尚文化、 大丰实业；会议会展领域主要标的米奥会展、兰生股份；受益于促就业 政策的北京人力、科锐国际；免税消费相关的中国中免和王府井。 评 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tourism announced the convening of its eighth board meeting via telecommunication to review the third quarter report for 2025, indicating ongoing corporate governance and financial oversight [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yunnan Tourism's revenue composition was as follows: 41.36% from the tourism comprehensive service sector, 39.1% from the cultural tourism complex operation sector, and 19.54% from the tourism cultural technology sector [1] - The current market capitalization of Yunnan Tourism is 5.6 billion yuan [1]

Company Overview - Yunnan Tourism (SZ 002059) announced on September 29 that the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to approximately 123 million yuan, which represents 8.66% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - The company and its subsidiaries have not experienced overdue guarantees, litigation-related guarantees, or losses due to judgments against guarantees [1] - The management is authorized to handle matters related to these external guarantees [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Yunnan Tourism is as follows: the tourism comprehensive service segment accounts for 41.36%, the cultural tourism complex operation segment accounts for 39.1%, and the tourism cultural technology segment accounts for 19.54% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report, Yunnan Tourism has a market capitalization of 6.2 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Gorges Tourism (002627), has shown significant growth in its tourism business, with a focus on expanding its cruise operations and enhancing governance structures. Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 286 million yuan in its tourism business, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.20% [2] - The cruise products received a total of 1.2525 million visitors, marking a 10.96% increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record for visitor numbers [2] - The company's main revenue for the first half of 2025 was 367 million yuan, up 7.47% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63.6214 million yuan, an increase of 17.74% [9] Group 2: Future Plans and Developments - The company plans to launch its first two provincial cruise ships in June and December 2026, with a second batch of two ships expected to be completed by June 2028 [4] - The pricing for the popular Yichang-Chongqing cruise route is set between 2,800 and 3,000 yuan per person, with a travel agency settlement price of 2,500 yuan per person [4] - The company has established a clear goal to transition towards the tourism industry and will prioritize asset injections from its controlling shareholder that meet relevant conditions [5] Group 3: Governance and Management Changes - The company made governance adjustments by abolishing the supervisory board and establishing a worker representative director, following legal requirements [3] - Hu Junhong resigned as director and vice chairman but will continue to serve as the board secretary, participating in strategic investment and corporate governance [3] Group 4: Sales and Market Response - As of September 21, 2025, the pre-sale situation for the company's cruise products during the "National Day" holiday was strong, with all tickets sold out for the period from October 2 to October 7 [6] Group 5: Share Buyback and Financial Management - Over the past three years, the company has completed two share buyback programs, with the first buyback of 18.9219 million shares aimed at employee incentive plans and the second buyback of 10.2476 million shares for maintaining company value and shareholder rights [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tourism reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the tourism sector and a need for strategic adjustments to adapt to market changes [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 117 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.22% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -96.92 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 110.85% [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -98.68 million yuan, down 95.40% compared to the previous year [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -32.19 million yuan, an improvement of 78.93% from the previous year [3]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both -0.0957 yuan, a decrease of 110.79% [3]. - The weighted average return on net assets was -7.06%, down 3.86% from the previous year [3]. - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately 3.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.20% from the end of the previous year [3]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders were approximately 1.32 billion yuan, down 6.79% from the previous year [3]. Business Strategy and Market Conditions - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a downturn in the "Tourism Culture Technology" segment, prompting the company to adjust its business structure to meet new market demands [4]. - The company is actively pursuing new growth points while maintaining its traditional strengths, although the signing of new orders requires time [4]. - The real estate market's macro conditions have led to cautious land acquisition by property companies, resulting in reduced investment willingness from local governments and platform companies for large-scale cultural tourism projects [5]. - The company is currently adjusting its product and business expansion models while focusing on equipment upgrades and cultural tourism business enhancements [5]. - Despite an increase in tourist numbers, the company faces significant seasonal fluctuations in tourism business [6]. - To address these challenges, the company is closely monitoring budget execution and utilizing rolling forecasts for revenue and cost management [6]. - The company has no short-term debt repayment pressure, with total external financing of 529 million yuan, all of which are long-term loans [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in overall revenue for the first half of 2023, primarily due to the absence of income from land development, while its tourism segment experienced explosive growth in revenue and profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 871 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.65% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.74 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1,111.56% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 54.05 million yuan, up 621.69% year-on-year [1]. Tourism Segment Growth - The tourism segment's revenue surged by 662.39% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the company's overall performance [1][2]. - The tourism comprehensive service segment generated 205 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 23.49% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 29.73% [2]. - Specific growth rates in tourism-related services included: - Transportation services: up 157.87% - Sightseeing cruise services: up 1,029.57% - Port services: up 398.44% - Travel agency services: up 908.63% - Scenic area services: up 110.72% [2]. Strategic Focus - The company is divesting non-core assets, including a 40% stake in a passenger transport company and a 40% stake in an automotive sales company, to concentrate on its tourism business [2]. - The company plans to sell 100% of the Tianyuan Supply Chain, which is less related to tourism, while retaining the passenger transport company due to its relevance to the tourism sector [2]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is enhancing its tourism product competitiveness by improving marketing, optimizing operations, and expanding product offerings [3]. - The core product, the sightseeing cruise service, achieved a gross margin of 54.52%, a year-on-year increase of 200.79% [3]. - The "Two Gorges and One Dam" tourism product received 954,400 visitors in the first half of 2023, an increase of 1,159% compared to the same period in 2022 [3]. Business Expansion - The company is pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its tourism business, including acquiring 100% of Changjiang Travel Development and 100% of the Xing Sheng Company [4]. - The company aims to become a leader in the tourism industry by expanding its service offerings and enhancing product efficiency [4]. - The company is also developing the world's largest pure electric cruise ship, which began operations in 2022, and plans to launch two hybrid-powered sightseeing cruise ships by the end of 2023 [4]. Market Recognition - The company's strategic focus on tourism has attracted attention from the market, with analysts recommending increased holdings in the stock [5]. - The completion of asset divestitures and acquisitions is expected to enhance profitability from the Three Gorges scenic area and improve the overall service matrix [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][36] Core Viewpoints - Economic performance is steadily recovering, but consumer confidence still needs further boosting. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The GDP for the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][3] - The overall economic operation in the first half of 2025 was stable, with consumption playing a significant supporting role. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries at 3.6%, 36.2%, and 60.2% respectively. The growth pace aligns with the annual target of 5% [3][4] - The retail sales of goods increased by 5.1%, while restaurant income grew by 4.3% in the first half of 2025. The service retail sales also saw a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3][4] Consumer Confidence - The average urban unemployment rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, showing stability, but consumer confidence has not significantly improved. The consumer confidence index was at 88.0 in May, indicating a low level of confidence [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include those in the business and exhibition sectors, as well as various hospitality and entertainment firms [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Xiyu Tourism (300859) is expected to achieve a net profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan in the first half of 2025, leveraging the booming tourism in Xinjiang and developing new projects like "Encounter Kashgar" and "Encounter Sailake" [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - The tourism industry in Xinjiang has shown significant growth, with 132.78 million visitors and a total expenditure of 142.56 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.15% and 11.59% respectively [1] Group 2: Business Development - Xiyu Tourism is focusing on enhancing its service offerings by providing comprehensive tourism services, including transportation, sightseeing boats, cable car tours, and RV camps [1] - The company is developing immersive performance brands under the "Encounter" series to create new growth avenues [1] - The "Encounter Kashgar" project has attracted over 13 million visitors in the first half of the year, showcasing the potential of new tourism formats like intangible cultural heritage workshops and aerial gardens [1] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Response - The decline in performance is attributed to the early-stage market cultivation of new tourism projects, which require further development of revenue and profitability [2] - The company plans to increase promotional efforts, adjust marketing strategies, and enhance service quality to capture a larger market share and ensure expected project returns [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment, plans to increase its stake in the company by acquiring between 1.085 million and 2.0925 million shares, representing 0.70% to 1.35% of the total share capital [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Xinjiang Cultural Tourism Investment has already increased its holdings by nearly 560,000 shares, raising its ownership from 28.79% to 29.00% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Tianmu Lake (603136.SH) has reported a continuous decline in revenue for five consecutive quarters, with a significant drop in both revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating a challenging development situation amidst a recovering domestic tourism market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Core Scenic Area Business - The core scenic area business, which accounts for over 50% of the company's revenue, experienced a significant decline, with revenue for 2024 reaching 282.4 million yuan, down 13.03% year-on-year, and main profit dropping by 32.5% [2][3][4]. - The main profit margin for the scenic area business decreased to 70.43%, a reduction of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The two major 5A scenic areas, Shanshui Garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea, both saw declines in revenue and main profit for 2024, with Shanshui Garden's revenue down 17.47% and Nanshan Bamboo Sea's down 7.58% [4][5]. Group 2: Hotel Business - The hotel business, which contributes nearly 30% to the company's revenue, also faced a sharp decline, with 2024 revenue falling to 159.4 million yuan, a decrease of 23.1%, and main profit down 27.86% [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for the hotel business dropped significantly from 29.88% to 21.4%, indicating substantial operational pressure [6][7]. - The performance of the hot spring and water world businesses, aimed at boosting off-peak season revenue, also saw significant declines, with the water world business revenue plummeting by 41.28% [7]. Group 3: Fundraising Projects - The company has two fundraising projects initiated in 2020 that have faced multiple delays, with the expected completion dates pushed back to December 2025 [8][10]. - The South Mountain Xiaozhai project and the Yushui Hot Spring renovation project have seen minimal progress, with only 8.14% of the projects completed as of the latest updates [10]. - The prolonged delays and changing market conditions raise uncertainties about the future performance of these projects, which were intended to enhance the company's competitiveness and profitability [10].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Sanxia Tourism experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to the divestiture of its automotive sales business and the underperformance of the Jiufeng Valley scenic area, which has become a financial burden for the company [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 741.32 million yuan, a decrease of 53.68% year-on-year [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.59 million yuan, down 9.29% compared to the previous year [5]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 96.29 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The core business segments, including sightseeing cruise services and travel agency operations, saw revenue growth of 17.73% and 14.04%, respectively [3]. - The total number of tourists served by cruise products in 2024 was 2.56 million, a slight increase of 1.93% year-on-year [3]. - The Jiufeng Valley scenic area, acquired by the company, reported revenue of only 2.5 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 48.38% [4]. Strategic Changes - The company divested 70% of its stake in the automotive sales business, which significantly impacted its revenue [2]. - The divestiture included selling 20% of the stake to the controlling shareholder and transferring all debts related to the automotive sales company [2]. - The company aims to extend its tourism service offerings by adding new scenic area operations, despite the challenges faced by Jiufeng Valley [4]. Legal and Compliance Issues - Jiufeng Valley has not demonstrated profitability since its acquisition, failing to meet profit commitments in 2021 and 2022, leading to a compensation obligation for the seller [6]. - The seller, Pei Daobing, has appealed a court ruling regarding the failure to fulfill performance compensation commitments, with the case still pending [6].