戴尔科技公司 （ NYSE： DELL ）将于2025年8月28日盘后 公布 2026年第二季度业绩， 分析师预期 将接近指引区间的上限。 过去90天，分 析师已将每股收益上调13倍，下调3倍，这表明市场对戴尔业绩的预期很高。 | Dell Technologies q2'25 Estimates | Del Monte | Consensus | Guidance | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue | 29,199 | 29,192 | 29.000 | | Adjusted EPS | 2.30 તર | 2.29 | 2.25 | 鉴于市场对人工智能基础设施（尤其是企业采用）的乐观态度，分析师对戴尔股票给予买入评级，目标价为每股 153 美元，相当于 eFY28 EV/aEBITDA 的 9.36 倍。 2026年第二季度收益值得关注的是： 除了人工智能优化的基础设施增长外，随着客户整合和现代化数据中心，戴尔的传统服务器业务也实现了两位数增长。鉴于戴尔现有客户群中 有大量14代及更老的服务器，戴尔或将迎来其16代和17代服务器的强劲更新换代机会。 【如需和我们交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on Bill Miller's investment philosophy, particularly his long-term investment in Amazon, which showcases his unique approach to value investing and decision-making in the face of market skepticism [2][4][7]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Bill Miller's investment style is characterized as "non-typical" or "alternative" value investing, blending valuation, fundamentals, odds, and time into practical judgments [5][34]. - Miller emphasizes the importance of defining a business correctly, as the description influences perception and investment decisions [5][19]. - The ability to switch between value and growth investing is a key aspect of Miller's pragmatic investment approach, allowing him to identify mispriced opportunities [34][38]. Group 2: Decision-Making Process - Miller's decision to invest in Amazon was influenced by his understanding of its business model, which he likened to Dell's negative working capital structure, allowing for high capital returns [4][14]. - He believes that understanding the underlying cash flow and operational efficiency is crucial, as demonstrated by his analysis of Amazon's financials during its early years [25][27]. - The ability to filter out market noise and maintain a clear perspective is essential for successful investing, as highlighted by Miller's approach to learning and continuous improvement [3][20]. Group 3: Resilience and Adaptability - Miller's resilience during market downturns, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis, showcases his ability to adapt and learn from past mistakes [39][42]. - His approach to investing is informed by a blend of philosophical insights, including pragmatism and language philosophy, which help him navigate complex market dynamics [22][31]. - The importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and the psychological challenges of holding investments through volatility are emphasized as critical components of successful investing [71][75]. Group 4: Practical Insights - The discussion highlights the significance of recognizing "explosive upside opportunities" in investments, as demonstrated by Miller's bets on Amazon and Bitcoin [67][68]. - Miller's investment decisions are often based on a calculated risk approach, where he assesses the potential for significant returns against the likelihood of loss [65][66]. - The ability to remain calm and rational during market turmoil is a trait that distinguishes successful investors like Miller, allowing them to make informed decisions rather than emotional ones [51][57].

上周前几个交易日美股市场行情低迷，大型科技股遭到市场抛售，但周五美联储主席鲍威尔发表重磅讲话，暗示美联储 对降息持开放态度，市场对9月降息的预期升温，美股大幅反弹。从全周来看，道指涨1.53%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳 指跌0.58%。 上周国际油价显著上涨 本周，英伟达将公布最新财报，其业绩指引将成为市场关注焦点。此外，惠普、迈威尔科技、戴尔科技等科技企业也都 将在本周公布最新的财报。分析认为，这些公司的财报或将成为目前人工智能产业行情的重要观察窗口，或将对美股科 技板块行情造成影响。 贵金属期货方面，部分投资者在金价连续下跌后逢低买入，市场对美联储降息预期升温，美元走软支撑金价，上周国际 金价涨幅超1%。 本周市场重点关注美国7月PCE价格指数 本周五，美国将公布美联储关注的关键通胀指标——7月个人消费支出价格指数，也就是PCE价格指数。经济学家普遍预 计，美国7月核心PCE指数环比涨幅将保持在0.3%不变，同比涨幅小幅反弹至2.9%。分析认为，本周公布的这份通胀数据 可能不会成为美联储9月降息的阻碍，但高于预期的通胀数据将会打压9月之后的降息预期。花旗集团分析认为，关税政 策对美国消费价格的冲击比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities highlights Lenovo Group's strong market position and growth potential driven by digital transformation and the acceleration of AI PC penetration, leading to an "overweight" rating for the company [1] Group 1: Lenovo Group's Market Position and Growth - Lenovo Group is the largest PC manufacturer globally and is leveraging digital transformation for long-term growth, with a projected global market share increase to 24.8% by Q2 2025 according to IDC data [1] - The AI PC market is expected to grow rapidly, with 2024 being considered the market's inaugural year, and shipments projected to reach a global penetration rate of 85% by 2027, with sales increasing from 14.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 131.2 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The price of AI PCs is expected to remain stable or increase, enhancing performance and cost-effectiveness, which will further drive market penetration and upgrades [1] Group 2: SSG's Growth and Market Dynamics - SSG is benefiting from AI-enabled service solutions, with the overall IT service market in China projected to reach 377.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.8% year-on-year [2] - SSG has maintained the fastest revenue growth in the IT service market for eight consecutive years, driven by strategic initiatives and early AI adoption [2] - The integration of autonomous AI in enterprise software is expected to rise from less than 1% in 2024 to 33% by 2028, indicating a significant shift in decision-making processes [2] Group 3: ISG's Infrastructure Solutions and Revenue Growth - ISG has established comprehensive infrastructure solutions, with revenue from infrastructure solutions increasing by 36% year-on-year in Q1 FY25/26, driven by cloud investments and market expansion [3] - The AI server business has seen revenue growth of over 100% year-on-year, supported by strong product lines and advanced liquid cooling technology [3] - Revenue growth projections for ISG are 19.5%, 15%, and 15% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with profitability expected to improve as the business scales [3] Group 4: Financial Projections and Profitability - SSG is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, with projections of 16.1%, 13.0%, and 12.0% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, and operating profit margins of 22.2%, 22.4%, and 22.6% [4] - The company plans to increase marketing expenditures for AI PC promotion while managing to reduce administrative costs through organizational adjustments [4] - Adjusted net profit growth is projected at 12.9%, 16.8%, and 16.0% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, benefiting from a lower effective tax rate due to a one-time tax credit [5]

投资建议：鉴于龙头地位稳固，AIPC、AI 服务器加速渗透，我们预计公司2025-2027 年实现营业收入 773.81/836.82/912.25 亿美元，经调整归母净利润16.28/19.02/22.06 亿美元。对应PE 分别为10.7/9.2/7.9 倍，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 全球最大PC 厂商，根植于中国的真正全球化企业。据IDC 数据，2025年第二季度，公司是全球最大的 PC 厂商，全球市占率扩大至24.8%。公司当前在180 个国家和地区开展业务，全球约有80000 名员工， 18 个全球研发基地，30 多个生产制造基地，是一家真正全球化的公司，需要用全球化的视角去研究。 收入&经调整归母净利润均超彭博预期：2Q25 公司收入同比增长21.9%为188.3 亿美元（高于彭博预期 175.6 亿美元），三大业务集团收入均超彭博预期，其中ISG收入较彭博预期超出10%。公司归母净利润 同比增长108%至5.05 亿美元，与认股权证相关的衍生金融负债公允值收益为1.5 亿美元，经调整归母净 利润剔除了这部分的影响，同比增长22%至3.9 亿美元（高于彭博预期3.5 亿美元）。 风险提示：美国 ...

近日，中国长城旗下长城科技成功中标招商局集团2025年度办公电脑集中采购项目，成为唯一全面覆盖 ARM与C86全部标段的整机供应商。 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Photonic Organization Leadership Conference was held in Xining, Qinghai, focusing on "Haiguang Chip" technology and the construction of a domestic computing ecosystem [1] - Thunderobot Technology launched new terminal products, the Boyue G46 mobile workstation and Boyue LX12-H workstation, featuring the new generation Haiguang processor [1][2] - The conference emphasized the importance of a comprehensive technology optimization system covering "chips - complete machines - basic software - application software" [1] Group 2 - The Boyue G46 workstation is equipped with the Haiguang C86 processor, featuring an 8-core 16-thread architecture with a maximum boost frequency of 4.0GHz, and a custom graphics chip with a 14.51% frequency increase [2] - The Boyue LX12-H workstation features a 16-core 32-thread architecture with a maximum boost frequency of 3.0GHz and is paired with 64GB of high-speed memory [2] Group 3 - Both products are integrated into Thunderobot's AI ecosystem, supporting localized deployment and ensuring security, reliability, and cost-effectiveness for AI applications [4] - Thunderobot aims to deepen technical collaboration and ecosystem building with core partners like Haiguang, promoting a dual-driven strategy of "e-sports + information innovation" [4]

#系统资讯 Windows 11 24H2 版疑似出现重大问题，安装 KB5063878 号更新后连续写入大量数据可能会导致 SSD 掉盘且重启后也无法正常识别。测试显示多款使用群联 E12 主控芯 片的固态硬盘受影响，不过目前微软尚未确认此问题。查看全文：https://ourl.co/110256 测试发现在长时间写入数据后 Windows 11 首先会无法识别固态硬盘，在重启系统后固态硬盘包含的分区也会无法访问，网友还注意到使用群联主控芯片 PS5012-E12 的固态硬盘更容易受到该问题的影响。 需要强调的是目前这些测试均来自网友，微软官方和固态硬盘制造商都没有确认这个问题，所以暂时还不清楚问题发生的根本原因以及潜在的影响范围有多 大。 上周微软向 Windows 11 24H2 版推出 KB5063878 号例行累积更新，该更新的构建版本号为 Build 26100.4946，不过部分用户安装更新后发现该更新 可能会导致固态硬盘无法正常使用。 如果本身 Windows 11 就安装在固态硬盘上且这块固态硬盘掉盘会怎样呢？答案是黑屏死机 (BSOD)，因为系统检测不到硬盘或者无法读取分区数据所以 直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects Lenovo (00992) to benefit from the expansion of AI PC and server businesses, with investments in generative AI driving long-term growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price from HKD 12.48 to HKD 13.56 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% for Lenovo's revenue from 2025 to 2027, primarily driven by the rise of AI PC products and an increase in market share [1] - The non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards net profit estimates for 2026 to 2028 have been raised by 2%, 18%, and 18% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Lenovo's server business is continuously transitioning towards high-end products [1] - Global PC shipments increased by 15.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, outperforming the industry average growth of 6.5% [1] - Lenovo's market share rose from 23% to 24.8%, with AI PCs expected to help capture additional market share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia (NVDA.US) has become the first publicly traded company to exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion and is on its way to reach $5 trillion, reflecting the strong recovery of tech giants in the U.S. stock market after two major adjustments this year [3][4][5]. Market Performance - The U.S. tech giants, including Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft, have fully recovered from the declines caused by the "Deep Seek moment" and the "Liberation Day" policy announcements, with Nvidia's stock up by 32.68% year-to-date [6][7]. - In the Hong Kong market, Chinese core assets have also seen significant price increases since April, with Lenovo Group's stock rising over 60% and SMIC's stock up over 30% since the "Liberation Day" [4][10]. Lenovo Group's Performance - Lenovo Group reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth to 136.2 billion RMB for the first quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking a historical high for the same period [4][19]. - The AI PC penetration rate at Lenovo has accelerated, now accounting for over 30% of total PC shipments, with a 31% market share in the global Windows AI PC segment [19]. AI Ecosystem Potential - The potential of the AI ecosystem remains a core narrative driving market optimism, with significant investments and product deliveries from companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta [5][8]. - The AI sector is seen as a key theme in the capital market, with companies that have clear AI strategies and can deliver results being recognized by investors [13][16]. Comparative Analysis - The performance of Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft is attributed to their clear AI strategies and product deliveries, contrasting with Amazon and Google's more moderate stock price increases [7][8]. - The "Chinese Tech Seven" companies, including Xiaomi, Lenovo, and Alibaba, have mirrored the performance of their U.S. counterparts, indicating a broader recovery in the tech sector [9][10]. Future Outlook - Lenovo's management emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes and investing in AI infrastructure, with a commitment to continue executing its hybrid AI strategy [20]. - The overall valuation of Chinese tech assets remains relatively low compared to U.S. counterparts, suggesting potential for further market capitalization recovery for companies like Lenovo [20].