Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,468.78, up by 233.37 points or 0.92% [16] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.03% to 5,457.95 [16] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 228.29 points or 0.47% to 47,885.97 [16] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 418.14 points or 1.81% to 22,693.32 [16] Key Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper Company reported a revenue of approximately 396 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of about 1% year-on-year, with net profit reaching around 6 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of over 20% [21] - Trip.com Group's net operating income for Q3 2025 was approximately 18.3 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of about 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 24% [21] - China National Airlines saw a year-on-year growth of about 10.1% in passenger turnover for November 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [21] Industry Developments - Oracle plans to build a data center in Michigan with a power demand of 1 million kilowatts, primarily to serve OpenAI, but negotiations for a $10 billion investment from Blue Owl Capital have stalled [12][13] - Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) reported a strong recovery in its lithium business, achieving record lithium sales in Q3 2025, with global lithium demand expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year [23] - Lumentum Holdings Inc. announced Q1 2026 revenue of $534 million, a year-on-year increase of 58%, reflecting strong operational momentum [24]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,530 points, down 10 points or less than 0.1%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) fell 27 points or 0.7%, closing at 3,873 points[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was HKD 182.48 billion[1] Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China adjusted the RMB/USD central parity rate up by 67 pips to 7.0686[1] - A total of CNY 118.6 billion in seven-day reverse repos was conducted at a steady rate of 1.4%[1] - There was a net withdrawal of CNY 62.2 billion for the day due to CNY 180.8 billion in reverse repos maturing[1] Automotive Market Insights - The Chinese passenger car market is expected to see a vehicle replacement scale exceeding CNY 180 billion in 2025, with tax incentives for new energy vehicles at 10%[2] - In November, car exports reached 728,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 9.3% and a year-on-year increase of 48.5%[3] - The total number of car exports from China for the first eleven months of the year was 6.343 million units, reflecting an annual growth of 18.7%[3] Business Sentiment - 48.3% of surveyed Hong Kong businesses have a positive outlook for the next 12 months, a significant increase from 18.3% last year[3] - Only 15.3% of companies expressed a pessimistic view for 2026, down from 44.3% the previous year[3] - The Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce forecasts a real economic growth of 2.7% for 2026, with an overall inflation rate of 1.8%[3]

1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/12/2 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 2 • 市場避險情緒｜日本央行行長暗示本月加息，刺激環球債息攀升，加劇市場避險 • 道指周一瀉｜道指瀉超過400點，比特幣曾插水8.6%，低見83979美元 • 10年期債息｜日本10年期債息自2008年以來首次升破1厘，美國10年期債息曾抽高 7.13個基點，至4.0845厘 • 銀價刷新紀錄｜現貨銀價連續兩個交易日刷新紀錄，最多升4.32%，至每盎斯 58.8425美元 • 核心驅動因素｜短期內股市仍受「聯儲局轉向、日央轉鷹」的政策預期主導 • 多元化配置｜利用行業輪動從科技向周期轉變 • 風險管理｜動態調整久期與信用風險敞口 • 2026年展望｜ AI超級周期的 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find short-term support around the 100-day moving average at approximately 25,600 points due to uncertainties in U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4][6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut in October, lowering the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but future cuts remain uncertain as many officials believe further reductions may not be necessary [4][9] Company Performance - ZTO Express reported a 5% increase in net profit for Q3, but lowered its full-year business volume guidance, indicating challenges in the logistics sector [4][10] - Lenovo Group's interim profit rose by 41%, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, with AI revenue accounting for nearly 30% of total revenue [10] - Kuaishou's adjusted profit increased by 26% in Q3, with AI revenue exceeding 300 million RMB, reflecting growth in online marketing and live streaming services [10] - Kingsoft's Q3 profit fell by 48%, primarily due to a significant drop in revenue from online games, despite growth in office software and services [10] Industry Insights - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong investment returns in A-shares during Q3 [7] - The coal sector anticipates upward price momentum for thermal coal [7] - The lithium industry is optimistic about a recovery in lithium carbonate demand, with supply and demand expected to balance [7] - The Chinese toy retail market is projected to exceed 100 billion RMB this year, driven by the popularity of collectible toys [8] Economic Indicators - China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, aligning with market expectations [8] - The U.S. job market shows signs of slowing, with rising unemployment rates, although they remain relatively low [4][9]

Market Overview - China's gold bar consumption increased by 25% in the first three quarters[3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,649 points, up 407 points or 1.6% on the previous day, with a total turnover of HKD 214.788 billion, a daily increase of 2.5%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 381 points or 0.81%, closing at 47,368 points, driven by hopes of ending the U.S. government shutdown[6] Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index year-to-date performance is up 30.82%[5] - The Technology Index decreased by 1.80% on the previous day but has a year-to-date increase of 30.64%[5] - The Financial Index has a year-to-date increase of 19.27%[5] Commodity Prices - New York gold futures closed at USD 4,009.80, up 0.47% year-to-date increase of 52.28%[5] - Brent crude oil closed at USD 63.63, with a year-to-date decrease of 14.56%[5] Company Highlights - Alibaba (9988.HK) rose by 2.1%, Tencent (700.HK) by 2.4%, and Meituan (3690.HK) by 1.3%[6] - The company Tongda Group (698.HK) plans to invest RMB 10 million in various wealth management products, expecting annual returns between 1.95% and 3.09%[7] Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Index successfully broke through the October 30 high of 26,588 points, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend as long as it holds above 26,000 points[10]

Market Overview - The Nasdaq index rose by 1%, with Google shares increasing over 9%, reaching a historical high [8] - Spot gold surpassed $3,550, indicating a continued rise in safe-haven demand [8] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5% before retreating, while the 10-year yield was at 4.199% [8] - Southbound capital net purchased Hong Kong stocks worth $5.5 billion, with Alibaba seeing three consecutive days of increased holdings [8] - The Hong Kong PMI rose to 50.7 in August, indicating a significant improvement in the business environment [12] Company Focus - **Siengene (2096)**: Reported total revenue of RMB 3.585 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. Innovative drug revenue accounted for over 75%, growing by 26% [20] - **China Petroleum Engineering (2386)**: Achieved revenue of RMB 31.559 billion in the first half of 2025, a 10.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit reaching RMB 1.388 billion, up 4.8% [20] - **Longi Green Energy (6869)**: Revenue increased by 19.4% year-on-year, driven by strong overseas market demand, with overseas revenue growing by 52.8% [20] Economic Data - U.S. factory orders decreased by 1.3% month-on-month in July, with durable goods orders revised down by 2.8%, aligning with expectations [10] - The U.S. JOLTS job openings for July were reported at 7.181 million, lower than expected [10] - The U.S. trade balance for July showed a deficit of $77.9 billion [18] ETF and Stock Recommendations - **Gold ETFs**: Recommended for allocation due to strong safe-haven demand, with options like GLD or IAU [8] - **Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)**: The U.S. court ruling allowed Google to retain its Chrome browser, providing a short-term price increase opportunity [22][23] - **Adobe Inc. (ADBE)**: Actively integrating AI into core products, with over 35% of Photoshop subscribers using generative AI features, indicating a positive impact on user engagement [24][25]

Core Insights - The report highlights a 100% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [9] - U.S. consumer confidence has declined, with the University of Michigan's September index dropping to 55.4, below the previous month's 58.2 and the expected 58.0 [9][11] - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 182-day term [9] - Investment strategies favor sectors such as smart manufacturing, cloud computing, AI, and medical innovation, which are attracting foreign institutional interest [9] - Recommendations include incorporating new targets into the southbound trading scheme, adjusting weightings, and early positioning [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed the 26,000-point mark, closing at 26,388 points, marking a weekly increase of 970 points or 3.82% [13] - The market anticipates a likely interest rate cut in the U.S., with discussions around whether the cut will be 0.25% or 0.5% [13] - The Hong Kong government's issuance of silver bonds has begun, with a guaranteed interest rate of 3.85%, which remains attractive compared to local deposit rates [13] - China's credit data showed a modest recovery in August, with new loans of 590 billion yuan, reversing a decline from July [13] - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on cross-border RMB financing, aiming to enhance the offshore RMB market [13] Company Focus - Weili Zhibo (9887) is focused on the high-growth biopharmaceutical sector, with a narrowed mid-year loss of 166 million yuan, reflecting improved operational efficiency [20] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692) has successfully expanded its oncology product line in China and launched in the UK, indicating significant future potential [20] - Lenovo Group (992) reported a 22% year-on-year revenue growth to 18.83 billion USD, driven by AI strategy and strong cash returns [20] Global Market Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,388.16, up 301.84 points or 1.16% [15] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 273 points or 0.59%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 98.03 points or 0.44% [15] - The S&P 500 Index experienced a slight decline of 3.18 points or 0.05% [15] Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases include China's new housing prices for 70 major cities and industrial production figures for August [18] - The unemployment rate in China for August is reported at 5.2% [18] - The U.S. New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index for September is estimated at 4.3 [18]

Market Overview - The US stock market is experiencing consolidation at high levels, with the S&P 500 index reaching new historical highs for three consecutive days [9] - The Hang Seng Index has been on the rise, with attractive valuations continuing to draw investor interest [9] - Tencent's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with AI becoming a core driver for a new round of valuation reassessment [9] - There is a structural preference for high-dividend sectors such as energy, telecommunications, and banking, as well as hard technology sectors like semiconductors and AI [9] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market has reached new highs, with net inflows from the Stock Connect program amounting to HKD 820 billion in the first half of the year [9] Company Focus - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue increased by 35% year-on-year in Q2 2025, benefiting from the recovery of paid markets in Europe, the US, Japan, and South Korea [22] - JD.com reported a 22% revenue growth to RMB 356.7 billion, although its adjusted net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 2.1% [13] - Lenovo Group's Q1 profit attributable to shareholders was USD 505 million, a year-on-year increase of 108%, despite challenges from US tariff policies [13] Economic Data - In July, China's industrial production grew by 6.0% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 4.6% [20] - The unemployment rate in China for July was reported at 5.1% [20] - Hong Kong's GDP for Q2 showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [20] - Taiwan's GDP for Q2 grew by 8.0% year-on-year [20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on performance and maintaining a high proportion of AI and technology-related assets while also considering high-dividend stocks [9] - The recommendation includes buying IGG at $5.10 with a target price of $5.82 and a stop-loss at $4.87 [22] - For Eli Lilly and Company, Q2 revenue reached USD 15.56 billion, a 38% year-on-year increase, with net profit at USD 5.66 billion, up 91% [24]

Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the US stock market, with investors taking advantage of lower prices, leading to a recovery in major indices [9][11] - The focus of the market has shifted towards corporate earnings and trade agreements, indicating a potential for future growth [9][11] - The report notes a significant outflow of capital from Hong Kong stocks, with net outflows reaching HKD 18.09 billion, the highest since May 12 [9][11] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,733.45, up 225.64 points or 0.92%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.55% [15][17] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 585.06 points or 1.34%, recovering losses from previous weeks [11][15] - Notable stock performances included Tesla and Microsoft, both rising by 2.2%, while Amazon saw a decline of 1.4% [11][15] Economic Data - US factory orders decreased by 4.8% in June, marking the largest drop since 2020, aligning with expectations [11] - The report anticipates upcoming economic data releases, including the Purchasing Managers' Index for Hong Kong and China, and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone [21] Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of WuXi AppTec (2126), a leader in CAR-T cell therapy in China, with a target price of HKD 6.44 [22] - It also highlights The Southern Company (SO) for its stable cash flow and projected growth in electricity demand, making it a strong investment choice [24] - The Allstate Corporation (ALL) reported a revenue increase of 5.85% to USD 16.633 billion, with earnings per share rising significantly, indicating strong performance [25]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations [9] - The US GDP for Q2 grew by 3%, surpassing expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in net exports [11] - The A-share market shows strong revaluation momentum, with the CSI 300 index's historical PE and PB ratios at 12.3x and 1.24x, respectively, indicating a cheap valuation [9][11] Market Focus and Strategy - The A-share market is expected to have long-term value due to favorable policies, despite potential short-term adjustments [9] - Recommendations include gradually accumulating A-share ETFs due to valuation re-evaluation [9] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant drop, closing at 25,176 points, with analysts suggesting it may breach the 25,000 mark [13] Company Highlights - Meta Platforms Inc. reported a 36% year-on-year increase in net profit and a 22% rise in revenue for Q2, exceeding expectations [11] - HSBC has a pessimistic outlook on Hong Kong's commercial real estate, increasing provisions significantly [13] - The company Giant Bio (2367) is positioned as a leader in the collagen market, with a projected market size of 108.3 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Economic Data Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, with PCE inflation at 2.1% [11] - China's manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.7, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2, suggesting slight expansion [19] - Hong Kong's GDP growth for Q2 is reported at 2.8% year-on-year [19] Stock Recommendations - Buy recommendation for Giant Bio at $57.10, with a target price of $66.20 and a stop-loss at $54.72 [21] - Starbucks Corporation reported Q3 revenue of $9.456 billion, a 3.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23] - FTAI Aviation Ltd. saw a 52.4% year-on-year revenue increase to $676 million, indicating strong growth potential [24]