出品｜虎嗅ESG组 作者｜陈玉立 头图｜视觉中国 本文是#ESG进步观察#系列第138篇文章 本次观察关键词：新能源产业 随着特朗普《大而美法案》的通过，美国联邦政府结束了长期以来对太阳能和风能的支持， "我不希望风力发电机摧毁我们的家园，"特朗普在6月29日接受福克斯新闻采访中说道："我也不希 望这些太阳能发电设施绵延数英里，甚至遮盖半座山，那丑陋至极。" 在特朗普的眼中，"大而美"法案的通过是"上任至今最大的胜利"，其原因不只是该法案囊括了特朗普 政府诸多极具争议性的经济政策，更是将拜登时代主推新能源的政治遗产进行了彻底清算。 取而代之的，是特朗普对于化石燃料的拥护。在六月末，特朗普表示美国将依靠石油、天然气、煤炭 和核能来满足日益增长的能源需求。 这份法案造成了更深层的分裂。就在上周，马斯克宣布成立"美国党"，声称要"还给人民自由"。而特 朗普反呛道："这是因为《大而美法案》取消了许多让特斯拉受益匪浅的补贴。" 马斯克与特朗普的隔空互怼仅是法案影响的一面，在硬币的另一面，这份法案对美国甚至全球新能源 产业的影响是巨大的。 另一方面，针对电动汽车领域，《大而美法案》决定自9月30日起终止7500美元的新车 ...

Core Points - The passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" marks a significant shift away from federal support for solar and wind energy, favoring fossil fuels instead [1][10] - The act is expected to have a profound impact on the U.S. and global renewable energy industries, leading to a decline in clean energy investments and potential job losses [2][9] Summary by Sections Impact on Renewable Energy - The "Big and Beautiful Act" tightens tax incentives for clean energy, particularly affecting investments in wind and solar power, which have historically relied on these tax credits [2] - The act stipulates that solar and wind projects operational after 2027 will no longer receive tax credits, indicating a potential decline in U.S. clean energy investments [2] - Consulting firm Rhodium Group estimates that the cancellation of clean energy tax incentives could reduce the construction of solar, wind, and storage projects by 57% to 72% by 2035 [8] Electric Vehicle Sector - The act terminates the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicle purchases and the $4,000 credit for used electric vehicles, likely leading to a decrease in electric vehicle penetration in the U.S. [2][3] - Experts suggest that the act will harm not only U.S. electric vehicle companies but also allies like South Korea and Japan, which have invested in U.S. manufacturing [3] Foreign Entity Restrictions - The act imposes strict restrictions on investments from "Prohibited Foreign Entities" (PFE), which includes companies from countries like China, Russia, and Iran, limiting their access to energy tax credits [4][5] - Companies must ensure that over 60% of their components are sourced outside of China to qualify for tax credits, a requirement that will increase to 85% by 2030 [4] Economic and Political Implications - The act is seen as a move towards protectionism, aiming to bolster domestic industries while weakening foreign competition, particularly from China [5] - The act's implementation may freeze project financing in the clean energy sector, as the time from project initiation to operation can span several years [5][8] Broader Consequences - The act is expected to increase electricity prices for consumers, with average household electricity costs projected to rise by 7.3% and business costs by 10.6% [8] - The shift away from clean energy initiatives may hinder global climate governance efforts, as the U.S. is a major carbon emitter [8][10]

特朗普曾多次表达对新能源的反感。他接受采访时说过："我不希望大风车毁了我们的家园，我不希望让太阳能板延伸好几公里，以一种极其丑陋 的方式覆盖半座山。"他还在演讲中称："风力发电机（的声音）会逼疯鲸鱼。" "我们相信，在终止'绿色新骗局'补贴方面，美国政府与我们立场一致。我们相信，未来90%以上的项目都将被终止。"据美国"政治新闻网"报道， 得克萨斯州共和党众议员奇普·罗伊在"大而美"法案通过后这样表示。罗伊来自众议院"自由核心小组"，该小组被认为是众议院内部的"强硬保守 派"。另一位来自该小组的众议员拉尔夫·诺曼则透露，他们最终被说服支持该法案，是因为特朗普承诺政府将采取行动，限制风能或太阳能项 目。 " 重拾化石能源、打击可再生能源 " "从政策取向上看，特朗普两届任期的能源政策目标清晰，都是以化石能源优先、放松监管和减少对可再生能源支持为特征。"复旦大学环境科学 与工程系教授、城市环境管理研究中心主任包存宽对《环球时报》记者分析称，特朗普第一任期的能源政策聚焦于撤销奥巴马的清洁能源政策， 第二任期则通过"大而美"法案深化这一方向，力度更大、更具系统性，例如取消《通胀削减法案》的清洁能源税收抵免、支持核能和 ...

行家说储能 特朗普对美国绿色能源重拳出击：当地时间7月7日，特朗普签署行政令，要求财政部根据 《One Big Beautiful Bill Act》 （ OBBB 法案） 的规定，逐步 取消风能和太阳能项目的联邦补贴，标志着美国能源政策向传统化石能源的全面回摆。 这一法案也是特朗普和马斯克的重要分歧点，将进一步重创美国可再生能源。该法案中 为何仍保留储能ITC补贴？新增的 FEOC条款限制，对于美国储能乃 至全球储能供应链有何影响？ 两大关键变化 ▋ 储能税收抵免延至2036年 OBBBA法案对《2022 年降低通胀法案》（简称"IRA"）中包含的许多清洁能源税收抵免措施进行了重大修改。其中，电池储能系统主要受法案中第48E和 45Y条的约束，这些设施的建设开始时间通常为2033年，并需遵守逐步淘汰的规定。 | 税收抵免和减免修改 具体变化类项 | | 具体内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第 45Y 条 (清洁电力 | 投入服务截止日期 (2027 | 电池不受此变更影响 | | 年 12月 31日） | | (财政部在法规中明确储能技术不能成为合格设施) | | 生产税收抵免） 第 ...

据环球时报报道，特朗普将通过新举措终止"绿色能源"补贴。与此同时，美国能源部警告美国能源体系 存在隐患，至2030年，停电次数或激增100倍。当地时间7月7日，特朗普签署行政令，计划逐步取消对 风能、太阳能发电场等绿色能源的联邦补贴，理由是可再生能源存在不可靠、成本高昂等问题。行政令 指出："长期以来，联邦政府一直迫使美国纳税人补贴风能、太阳能等成本高昂且不可靠的能源。这类 项目的激增，排挤了价格低廉、稳定可靠且可调度的国内能源，损害了电网稳定，还破坏了国家的自然 景观之美。" ...

政府对光伏等新能源产业的政策导向从防止无序扩张转向整治，旨在解 决供需矛盾，避免地方政府因企业亏损而加重债务负担，并维持整体经 济稳定，但避免"一刀切"措施。 光伏行业经历价格战和抢装潮后，受政策及需求变化影响，市场需求承 压，三季度面临高基数效应，需政策发力以避免对 GDP 形成拖累。市场 炒作流程时间跨度约一个季度。 政府在制定反内卷政策时需平衡多方利益，包括避免"一刀切"、处理 地方政府债务、应对通缩压力，并统筹规划全国统一大市场，确保产业 发展适宜性。 2026 年至 2030 年全社会用电量复合增速预期为 4%-6%，直接影响光 伏和风电装机目标。若增速达 5%以上，光伏装机有望达 200GW 以上， 风电为 110-120GW。 风能整机行业受益于防内卷策略，盈利能力提升，如明阳智能等公司盈 利兑现，股价弹性预计可达 30%以上。港股金风科技因起步估值较低受 市场青睐。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年的反内卷政策有哪些主要变化和实施情况？ 2024 年的反内卷政策从 5 月底开始，到 7 月份的政治局会议首次提出防止内 卷式竞争，随后在 12 月的中央经济工作会议上进一步强调整治内卷式竞争。 ...

据俄罗斯卫星通讯社消息，王毅外长访问欧洲期间，英国《金融时报》报道，美国威胁对欧盟农产品出口征收17% 关税，美欧贸易争端陡然升温。而此时，中方代表尚在欧洲，这一消息瞬间让局势变得更加微妙复杂。 马克龙（资料图） 面对美国的步步紧逼，法国总统马克龙在与王毅外长会见时，连提四个请求。其一，希望同中方加强国际经济、金 融、全球治理等方面政策协调。当下全球经济复苏乏力，金融市场波动剧烈，气候危机、公共卫生等全球性挑战层 出不穷。美国却在诸多问题上推行单边主义，退出多项国际协定。其二，强调中法作为联合国安理会常任理事国， 应承担更重要责任，期望与中方在应对霸权冲突和阵营对立方面合作。其三，呼吁中国加大对法国的投资，发展更 为平衡的经贸关系。 近年来，中法经贸合作虽有进展，但在一些领域仍存在不平衡。其四，明确表达希望择机访华。访华不仅能增进中 法两国高层的直接沟通，更能为两国在政治、经济、文化等多领域合作注入新动力，推动中法全面战略伙伴关系迈 向新高度。 然而，欧盟在处理与中美关系时，处境艰难。欧盟由众多国家组成，各成员国利益诉求不同，决策机制复杂。在应 对美国贸易威胁时，难以迅速形成统一、有效的应对策略。同时，在与中 ...

Group 1 - The new tax and spending bill signed by President Trump eliminates tax credits for wind and solar projects starting in 2027, which may "destroy" the clean energy industry in the U.S. [1] - A solar equipment company in North Carolina has warned its 190 employees that over 50 jobs may be lost due to the significant reduction in tax credits for the clean energy sector [3] - The Southern Energy Management CEO stated that the new law will create financial troubles and issues for customers as they face the deadline for tax credits [5] Group 2 - A think tank warned that up to 72% of planned wind and solar projects in the U.S. over the next decade could fail due to the new law, undermining the country's position in global renewable energy competition [5] - The director of Columbia University's Climate School emphasized that the U.S. will lose its competitive edge in various energy sectors, slowing down the energy transition and diminishing global competitiveness [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts and includes various provisions affecting multiple industries, while also raising concerns about long-term fiscal implications and increasing federal deficits [1][2]. Winners - **Chip Manufacturers**: The Act increases tax credits for chip manufacturers building new factories in the U.S. from 25% to 35%, incentivizing domestic production [3]. - **Energy Companies**: The Act reopens oil and gas leasing auctions and lowers royalty rates, benefiting oil and gas producers [5]. - **Airlines**: A $12.5 billion fund is allocated for modernizing air traffic control systems, which is supported by airline executives [6]. - **Real Estate Developers**: The Act expands tax incentives for commercial real estate investors, including a 12% increase in low-income housing tax credits [7]. - **Defense Contractors**: The Pentagon plans to invest approximately $150 billion over five years in defense projects, benefiting companies like Lockheed Martin [8]. - **Private Student Loan Institutions**: Changes in federal student loan limits may drive more students to private lenders like SoFi [9]. - **Manufacturers**: The Act provides tax deductions for manufacturing costs for factories that begin operations after January 19, 2025 [10]. Losers - **Electric Vehicle Manufacturers**: The Act terminates subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, posing challenges for companies like Tesla and Ford [12]. - **Solar and Wind Energy Companies**: The expiration of specific tax credits for renewable energy projects may lead to a decline in orders and customer retention [13]. - **AI Companies**: The removal of a provision to pause state-level AI regulations may hinder innovation in the sector [13]. - **Certain Colleges**: A new tiered tax rate on investment income for private colleges may negatively impact prestigious institutions like Harvard and Yale [14]. - **Food Companies**: Cuts to the SNAP program could lead to decreased sales for major food companies reliant on SNAP beneficiaries [15]. - **Logistics Companies**: The elimination of tax exemptions for small packages may reduce demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx and UPS [16].

金十数据7月4日讯，美国国会以微弱优势通过的"大而美法案"包括大幅削减《通胀削减法案》（IRA） 授予的绿色补贴，这将对美国的清洁能源产业造成沉重打击。特朗普倡导的法案预计将在7月4日美国独 立日之前签署成为法律。800多页的减税方案还包括其他有争议的政策，如大幅削减医疗补助计划，为 国防和驱逐移民提供新的资金。在新规定下，太阳能和风能行业将受到最严重的打击。投资和生产税收 抵免现在都将在2027年底开始逐步取消，而根据最初的IRA计划，这些措施最早将在2032年取消。 "大而美法案"即将签署 美国削减清洁能源补贴成定局 ...