Jan 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to issue rulings on Friday on cases related to the legality of ​tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency ‌Economic Powers Act. The administration faces the possibility of having to refund nearly $150 billion paid in ‌tariffs to importers if the court declares that the sweeping duties Trump has imposed under the IEEPA are illegal. Major corporations such as Costco, Revlon, Ray-Ban eyeglass maker EssilorLuxottica, Bumble Be ...

Corn Market - The corn market showed a slight increase early Thursday, with the March contract (ZCH26) trading volume under 10,000 contracts and sitting 1.25 cents lower [1] - The National Corn Index ($CNCI) was reported at $4.10, with the national average basis at 36.75 cents under March futures, a slight improvement from 37.25 cents under March the previous Friday [1] - Export demand for US corn remains strong, but projections indicate a decrease in shipment pace [1] Soybean Market - The soybean market opened lower, with the March contract (ZSH26) down 3.5 cents after a drop of 5.5 cents, with 16,000 contracts traded [3] - Concerns over Brazilian weather may be influencing market sentiment, as Brazil is a major producer of both soybeans and coffee [3] - The March-May soybean futures spread covered 42.5% of the full commercial carry, indicating a stable outlook for Brazil's 2026 production potential [3] Wheat Market - The wheat sub-sector displayed mixed results, with HRW showing a small loss, HRS a small gain, and SRW mostly unchanged on light trading volume [4] - The March HRW contract was down 1.0 cent, while HRS was up 3.75 cents, indicating low trading activity [4] - National Cash Indexes for winter wheat have gained approximately 10.0 cents but remain below the previous five-year low prices, suggesting bearish market fundamentals [4] Global Trade and Defense Spending - The US president proposed a 50% increase in defense spending to $1.5 trillion, which may lead to a government shutdown [2] - International trade is expected to continue growing, but the US is becoming a slower-growing trade hub, with uncertain impacts on GDP [2] - The US Supreme Court may rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed by the president, but no immediate changes in trade policy are anticipated [2]

Corn: The corn market was quietly mixed pre-dawn as global trade focuses on the bigger issue of war mongering. As of this writing both the March and May issues were sitting unchanged on light trade volume while deferred issues were showing fractional losses. Fundamentally, the National Corn Index ($CNCI) was calculated near $4.0775 Monday night putting national average basis at 36.75 cents under March futures as compared to last Friday’s final figure of 37.25 cents under and the previous 5-year low weekly c ...

Market Overview - US stocks experienced fluctuations as Wall Street concluded a volatile trading year with significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all losing around 0.1% in early trading [1][6] - The S&P 500 is up over 17% for the year, marking its sixth year of 15%-plus gains in the last seven years, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen over 20% and the Dow is up over 13% [2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 fell to 199,000 from a revised 215,000, surprising economists who had predicted an increase to 218,000 [7][8] - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.86 million from 1.91 million, contrary to expectations of a smaller decline to 1.90 million [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy remains a focal point, with 85% of bets indicating that rates will remain steady in January [5][10] - The central bank's decision-making process is influenced by labor market conditions rather than inflation data, as indicated by the close call in the December meeting [10] Commodity Market - Sugar prices are on track for their largest annual decline since 2017, dropping approximately 21% due to oversupply [12] - Other agricultural commodities like cocoa and rice have also seen significant price drops, with futures contracts falling by 48% and 32% respectively [14] Currency Performance - The US dollar is set to finish its weakest year since 2017, declining over 9% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns and a dovish Federal Reserve [15] - In contrast, the euro and pound have gained 13% and 7% respectively, marking their largest yearly gains in eight years [16]

By Karl Plume CHICAGO, Dec 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of ​Agriculture left its U.S. soybean ‌export forecast unchanged in a monthly report ‌on Tuesday as sales to China have resumed after the top importer shunned purchases for months amid ⁠a bruising ‌trade war with Washington. But the agency raised its U.S. ‍corn export forecast as sales of the grain have been stronger than ​anticipated. The USDA pegged soybean exports ‌in the 2025/26 season that ends on August 31 at 1.635 billion bushels. Endin ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural markets are expected to be influenced by three main themes in 2026: robust supply, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][8] - The resolution of the US-China trade dispute is crucial for US-origin demand, particularly for soybeans, as a trade deal could significantly increase Chinese purchases [1][2] - The ongoing Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially with recent attacks on Russian oil facilities impacting grain exports [1][2] Market Dynamics - **Soy Oil**: The market for soybean oil is projected to be bullish due to strong demand and constrained supply, with prices expected to average 58 cents per pound in 2026, up from 51 cents currently [3][6][114] - **Wheat and Soymeal**: A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soymeal, with prices expected to hover around $5 per bushel in 2026 due to strong supply and flat import demand from major buyers [3][6][24][28] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to strong US exports and potential USDA downgrades to US yields, but a reversal towards $4 per bushel could occur in the second half of 2026 [3][6][63] Geopolitical and Weather Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations and the Ukraine conflict, continues to add uncertainty to agricultural markets [1][2][8] - Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly La Niña effects, are being closely monitored, with early signs of dryness in Argentina and Brazil [2][19] Price Forecasts - **Wheat**: Expected to finish strong with a 30 million ton increase year-over-year across the top seven export nations, but prices are projected to remain depressed [6][24] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to stabilize around $4.5 per bushel in the next six months, with a potential drop to $4 per bushel in the latter half of 2026 [6][63] - **Soybeans**: Prices are anticipated to trade within the $11-$11.5 per bushel range into Q1 2026, driven primarily by Chinese demand [6][91] Additional Insights - The sugar market is expected to recover, moving from a 4 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to a 1.9 million ton surplus in 2025/26, with prices stabilizing around $15-$15.5 cents per pound [6][120] - The soybean meal market appears oversupplied, with prices expected to average $280 per ton in 2026, down from current forward prices of $331 per ton [6][120] - The biofuel industry is anticipated to compete intensely for soybean oil, potentially diverting it from food use, which could lead to higher prices [114][119][120] Conclusion - The agricultural sector is facing a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors that will shape market dynamics in 2026. The bullish outlook for soybean oil contrasts with bearish trends in wheat and soymeal, while corn prices remain contingent on export performance and weather conditions.

Summary of J.P. Morgan 2026/27 Agri Markets Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the agricultural commodities market, highlighting the expected volatility in 2026 as global agricultural availability continues to decline [1][9] - The document discusses the implications of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural commodity prices and availability [4][9] Key Points and Arguments U.S.-China Trade Relations - Optimism is growing regarding a potential U.S.-China trade deal in 2026, with expectations for China to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million tonnes in 2026, 2027, and 2028 [4][9] - The report expresses skepticism about the feasibility of significant U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2025/26 but anticipates improved commitments in 2026 [4][9] Price Movements and Forecasts - Price targets for CBOT grain and oilseeds have been revised upward following the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products by China [4][9] - The average price forecast for ICE 11 Sugar has decreased by 9% to 16.1 USc/lb, while the forecast for CBOT Soybeans has increased by 14% to approximately 1,083 USc/bu [41][43] Agricultural Availability and Stock Projections - Despite a narrative shift towards perceived abundance in agricultural commodities, the report indicates that global agricultural availability is declining, with stocks-to-use ratios projected to remain near multi-year lows in 2026/27 and 2027/28 [6][23] - The report highlights that low producer margins and adverse weather conditions could exacerbate supply-side disruptions, leading to increased price volatility [4][24] Weather and Climate Risks - The La Niña pattern is expected to influence agricultural weather conditions, with potential impacts on soybean and product production in regions like Argentina and Brazil [15][24] - The report notes that while weather risks have been benign in 2025, any adverse conditions could significantly affect production [15][24] Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates an uptick in agricultural commodity demand through 2025/26, driven by a more stable supply chain and trade environment [33][34] - A notable decline in population growth rates, particularly in China and middle-income economies, is expected to weigh on food demand growth [35][36] Market Sentiment and Volatility - Implied volatility in agricultural markets has increased, suggesting a potential rise in risk appetite among investors [12][14] - The report indicates that a sustained improvement in U.S.-China relations could lead to increased investor interest and volatility in agricultural markets [14][24] Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of producer margins and favorable growing conditions in altering the supply-side outlook for agricultural commodities [24][33] - The document also discusses the impact of high input costs, particularly for diesel, on agricultural production and competitiveness [24][41] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the J.P. Morgan 2026/27 Agri Markets Outlook, providing a comprehensive overview of the agricultural commodities landscape and the factors influencing it.

【油脂周报20251121】马棕高频数据与美生柴共振，施压油脂盘 TET 日期:2025-11-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【油脂周报20251121】马棕高频数据与美生柴共振，施压油脂盘面 | * 观点: 棕榈油 下跌空间有限，在[8300]价位存在支撑 | | * 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | * 合约: p2601 | | | | 장 | 逻辑： | 전 逻辑 | | 同期较低水平，叠加印尼生物柴油目标仍有提升预期，棕榈油中期略 | | 사람들 | | 局偏强。国内库存累至历年中性偏高位置，且近月买船有所恢复，但 | | 十美豆偏 | | 消费维持清淡格局，供需相对贲松。 | | 美贸易关 | | 整体来看,近期贸易及生柴消息抗动,油脂波动剧烈。中长期来看, | | 际关于 | | 东南亚棕榈油偏紧格局持续，叠加生柴政策支撑油脂重心，棕榈油偏 | | 整体天 | | 强看待为主。后续关注MPOB及GAPKI报告，国内进口及库存情况。 | | 向以可信 | | | | 政策、国 | | 产业链操作建议 | 场外报价 | | | | | 产中 | | 现货的口 | 参与用 ...

Summary of Agricultural Commodities Fundamentals Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected volatility in 2026 as global agricultural availability continues to decline from already low levels established in 2025/26 [7][10][14]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Global Agricultural Availability**: - Global agricultural commodity availability is projected to decline further, indicating a tightening supply situation [8][10]. - Stocks-to-use (STU) ratios for major commodities such as soybeans, wheat, sugar, and palm oil are expected to decrease year-over-year (YOY) for the next two seasons [7][10]. 2. **Stocks-to-Use Ratios**: - The world STU ratios are near multi-year lows for 2026E/27E and 2027E/28E, with a decline from suppressed levels in 2025E/26E [7][10]. - Specific STU ratios for various commodities are projected as follows: - Soybeans: 19.4% in 2026/27 - Wheat: 29% in 2026/27 - Sugar: 14.7% in 2026/27 - Palm Oil: 17.5% in 2026/27 [8]. 3. **Inventory Projections**: - Global ending stocks projections through 2026/27 show significant inventory draws across the complex, with palm oil and corn experiencing the largest declines of -7.6% and -6.4% respectively [10][11]. - Adjustments in inventory projections indicate a marginal increase across most markets for 2025/26, except for cotton which saw a decline of 1.4% [12]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates that the agricultural commodities market is facing complex dynamics with varying trends across different commodities, necessitating close monitoring of supply and demand factors [10][14]. 5. **Regional Analysis**: - The report includes detailed balances for wheat production in key regions such as the US, Black Sea, Russia, and Ukraine, highlighting the production, consumption, and export dynamics [19][21][23][25]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying factors affecting agricultural commodity prices, including weather conditions, geopolitical events, and changes in consumer demand [10][14]. - It also notes that the USDA data is incomplete due to a government shutdown, which may affect the accuracy of the projections [9][14][19][23]. This comprehensive overview provides insights into the agricultural commodities sector, highlighting the expected challenges and opportunities in the coming years.

Company Performance - OneConstruction Group Limited (NASDAQ:ONEG) experienced a stock price decline of 57.16%, dropping to $4.39 from a year-high of $13.5, with a revenue decrease of 16.2% to $53.2 million from $63.5 million [2][8] - Nuvve Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:NVVE) saw a 43.46% drop in stock price to $0.26, prompting the company to initiate a strategic financing initiative to strengthen its equity position [3][8] - TSS, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSSI) faced a 43.08% decline in stock price to $8.68, despite enhancing its AI and high-performance computing strategy by appointing a new board member with extensive experience [4][8] - Republic Power Group Limited (NASDAQ:RPGL) witnessed a 42.96% decline in stock price to $0.84, raising investor concerns about its market position, although it successfully closed an initial public offering of 2,120,000 Class A ordinary shares at $4.00 each [5][8] - Davis Commodities Limited (NASDAQ:DTCK) saw its stock price fall by 41.59% to $0.64, reflecting market reactions to global trade dynamics, while exploring a new vertical in the specialty food ingredients market projected to reach approximately $97.3 billion by 2025 [6][8] Market Sentiment - The significant price movements of these companies underscore the volatility and risks inherent in the stock market, influenced by company-specific developments, sectoral trends, and broader economic factors [7]