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嘉实基金吴越:明年消费板块有望迎来反转,白酒有很大向上动能|基金佳问第113期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 10:25
Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding pre-prepared dishes and the upcoming consumption peak during the holidays has heightened investor interest in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like pre-prepared dishes and liquor [2][4]. Group 1: Pre-prepared Dishes Industry - The pre-prepared dishes industry is currently facing scrutiny, with the recent social event potentially impacting short-term sales and performance of supply chain companies, but it is expected to benefit in the long term from the implementation of national standards [6][7]. - The industry has low entry barriers and is fragmented, leading to issues such as food safety and inconsistent standards, which may prompt regulatory changes that favor healthier industry development [4][6]. - There are fewer than ten significant pre-prepared dish companies in the A-share market, with a total market capitalization of less than 100 billion, indicating a small and underperforming sector compared to the overall market [7]. Group 2: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is viewed as being at a bottom point, with significant opportunities expected in the coming year, as the risk-reward ratio is currently favorable [5][10]. - The long-term growth potential of the liquor industry remains intact, driven by cultural factors and ongoing business activities, as long as the macroeconomic environment does not stagnate [11][12]. - Current market conditions show a significant divergence in sentiment, with over 90% of funds not favoring liquor stocks, presenting a potential opportunity for investment [13]. Group 3: Consumer Growth Stocks - The concept of "new consumption" is misleading, as there are only about 50 companies that truly fit this category, and most are traditional consumer companies that have been around for several years [14]. - Consumer growth stocks, which maintain good performance even under macroeconomic pressure, are expected to yield positive returns regardless of the overall consumption environment next year [15]. - The upcoming fourth quarter may see a structural rebalancing in the market, with consumer sectors, particularly liquor, being highlighted as key areas for investment [18][19].
冷冻西兰花质保两年有营养吗?专家:维生素损失少于冰箱冷藏一周
Core Insights - The recent open kitchen event by Xibei revealed six types of "pre-prepared" ingredients, with frozen broccoli drawing significant consumer attention [1] - Industry analyst Zhu Danpeng stated that the processing technology for long shelf-life pre-prepared dishes is mature and does not require preservatives [1] - Nutritionist Zhou Zhongyi explained that commercial frozen fruits and vegetables undergo blanching before freezing, which may cause a loss of about 20% of water-soluble vitamins, but subsequent low-temperature freezing can significantly delay further vitamin loss [1] Industry Analysis - The two-year shelf life of frozen broccoli is not uncommon in the market, with retailers like Sam's Club offering such products [1] - Zhou Zhongyi emphasized that while fresh fruits and vegetables are preferable when available, commercially frozen options are a good choice for long-term storage [1]
西贝的高价预制菜,成功让中产破防了?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-19 03:24
西贝高价预制菜事件让中产家长们彻底破防,尤其是在老罗公开质疑后,贾国龙的硬刚回应和开放后 厨,反而让大家看到了两年保质期的西兰花和科技鱼套餐。可以说,这场由老罗发起的风波,撕开的不 仅是西贝的遮羞布,更是中产消费信任的裂缝。 ...
千人样本调查5成受访者不接受预制菜 专家称中央厨房对食品安全保障非常有效
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The recent survey indicates a significant consumer resistance to pre-prepared meals, with over 50% of respondents rejecting them, highlighting a gap between consumer perceptions and industry practices regarding central kitchens and pre-prepared food safety [1][11]. Consumer Acceptance - Approximately 50.98% of respondents do not accept pre-prepared meals, while about 37.5% are in favor, and 11.52% are indifferent [1]. - 66.41% of respondents believe that pre-prepared meals should not be served in restaurants, with only 15.23% supporting their inclusion [3]. - When asked about restaurants that indicate the use of pre-prepared meals, 47.66% would not choose such establishments, while 21.68% would consider it [6]. Transparency and Pricing - A strong majority, 96.68%, of respondents believe that pre-prepared meals should be clearly labeled [5]. - Regarding reasonable pricing, 91.6% of respondents think that the average price for pre-prepared meals should be below 100 yuan, with 92.26% considering the prices at Xibei to be too high [7][11]. Industry Insights - Experts suggest that consumer skepticism towards pre-prepared meals stems from a preference for freshly cooked food in restaurants, as opposed to items available in supermarkets [11]. - The president of the Shenzhen Culinary Association emphasizes that central kitchens can effectively ensure food safety, especially for larger chain restaurants [12]. - Industry analysts call for national standards for pre-prepared meals and licensing for central kitchens to alleviate consumer fears and promote a balanced approach between taste and industrialization [12].
调查显示5成受访者不接受预制菜,专家称中央厨房对食品安全保障非常有效
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 13:50
Core Viewpoint - The acceptance of pre-prepared dishes (pre-cooked meals) among consumers is low, with a significant portion of the population expressing concerns about their safety and quality, indicating a need for transparency and regulation in the industry [2][4][14]. Consumer Acceptance - Approximately 50.98% of respondents do not accept pre-prepared dishes, while only about 37.5% are in favor of them [2]. - Over 66% of respondents believe that pre-prepared dishes should not be served in restaurants [4]. - When asked about the labeling of pre-prepared dishes, 96.68% of respondents agree that they should be clearly marked [6]. Restaurant Choices - In restaurants that serve pre-prepared dishes, 47.66% of respondents would not choose to dine there, while 30.66% are uncertain, and only 21.68% would consider it [8]. - More than 80% of respondents support the idea that pre-prepared dishes should be transparent to consumers [10]. Pricing Perception - A significant 91.6% of respondents believe that the average price for pre-prepared dishes should be below 100 yuan, with 92.26% considering the prices at Xibei to be too high [11]. Industry Insights - Experts suggest that pre-prepared dishes can be safe and convenient if produced according to standards, addressing the needs of busy consumers [14]. - The establishment of central kitchens is seen as a necessary step for scaling and ensuring food safety in the restaurant industry [14]. - There is a call for national standards and licensing for the pre-prepared dish industry to alleviate consumer fears and ensure quality [14].
调查显示5成受访者不接受预制菜,专家称中央厨房对食品安全保障非常有效
第一财经· 2025-09-18 13:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing debate around the safety and acceptance of pre-prepared meals (pre-cooked dishes) in restaurants, highlighting consumer skepticism and the potential for a centralized kitchen model in the food industry [1]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - Approximately 50.98% of respondents do not accept pre-prepared meals, while about 37.5% are accepting, and 11.52% are indifferent [1]. - Over 66.41% of respondents believe that pre-prepared meals should not be served in restaurants, with only 15.23% in favor of their inclusion [5]. - A significant 96.68% of respondents think that pre-prepared meals should be clearly labeled in restaurants [7]. Group 2: Pricing and Expectations - 91.6% of respondents consider a reasonable price for pre-prepared meals to be below 100 yuan, and 92.26% believe that the pricing at Xibei is too high [11]. - Nearly 50% of respondents indicated they would not choose restaurants that serve pre-prepared meals, reflecting a strong preference for freshly made dishes [13]. Group 3: Industry Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that transparency regarding pre-prepared meals is crucial, with over 80% of respondents supporting the idea that consumers should be informed about the use of such meals [15]. - The president of the Shenzhen Culinary Association stated that centralized kitchens can effectively ensure food safety, especially for chain restaurants [16]. - Industry analysts emphasize the need for national standards for pre-prepared meals and licensing for central kitchens to alleviate consumer fears and ensure quality [16].
保质期两年的西兰花还有营养吗?预制菜科普任重道远
Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding pre-prepared meals continues, with West Be's apology and commitment to improve food preparation practices, including using non-GMO soybean oil and making certain dishes on-site [1][3]. Group 1: Company Actions and Commitments - West Be has acknowledged previous issues and promised to adjust its central kitchen processing to on-site preparation, including changes to ingredients and cooking methods [1]. - The company will switch all dishes cooked with soybean oil to non-GMO soybean oil and will prepare children's beef patties on-site instead of using pre-prepared options [1]. Group 2: Consumer Concerns and Industry Insights - Safety concerns are paramount for consumers, particularly regarding the 24-month shelf life of frozen broccoli, which has drawn significant attention [1]. - Industry analyst Zhu Danpeng noted that the technology for long-shelf-life pre-prepared meals is mature and does not require preservatives, similar to products like eight-treasure porridge [1][2]. Group 3: Nutritional Aspects - Nutritional loss can occur during the processing, storage, and transportation of frozen vegetables, with Zhu indicating that frozen vegetables may require higher quantities to meet dietary standards compared to fresh ones [2]. - The freezing process, including blanching, can lead to some nutrient loss, but it can also significantly slow down further nutrient degradation compared to refrigeration [2]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The National Health Commission is set to release a draft national standard for pre-prepared meals, which will include mandatory guidelines on ingredient disclosure and processing methods [4]. - The new standards aim to clarify definitions and regulations surrounding pre-prepared meals, addressing long-standing confusion and regulatory gaps in the industry [4]. Group 5: Public Perception and Education - There is a significant public misconception that fresh ingredients are inherently better than frozen ones, which complicates the discussion around pre-prepared meals [3]. - Experts emphasize the need for better public education on food safety and preparation methods to alleviate confusion and promote informed consumer choices [5].
千人样本调查5成受访者不接受预制菜,专家称中央厨房对食品安全保障非常有效
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 11:23
Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates a significant resistance among consumers towards pre-prepared meals, with around 50% rejecting them and over 60% opposing their introduction in restaurants [1][3][11]. Consumer Acceptance - Approximately 50.98% of respondents do not accept pre-prepared meals, while about 37.5% accept them, and 11.52% are indifferent [1]. - 66.41% of respondents believe pre-prepared meals should not enter restaurants, with only 15.23% supporting their inclusion [3]. Transparency and Labeling - A strong majority, 96.68%, of respondents believe that pre-prepared meals should be clearly labeled [5]. - When asked if they would choose a restaurant that labels pre-prepared meals, 47.66% said they would not, while 21.68% would consider it [6]. Pricing Perception - A significant 91.6% of respondents think that the average price for pre-prepared meals should be below 100 yuan, and 92.26% consider the prices at Xibei to be too high [7][11]. Industry Insights - Experts suggest that consumer perceptions of pre-prepared meals differ from those of food professionals, and the central kitchen model is becoming increasingly necessary in the restaurant industry [1][12]. - The need for national standards for pre-prepared meals is emphasized, along with the importance of licensing for central kitchens to ensure safety and quality [12].
龙大美食遭遇增长困境2025年上半年业绩双降 预制菜战略承压
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-18 10:07
Core Insights - Longda Food, once favored by the capital market as a "pre-made food concept stock," is currently facing dual challenges of sluggish main business growth and obstacles in strategic transformation [1] - The company's H1 2025 report reveals a decline in both revenue and net profit, with total revenue at 4.975 billion yuan, down 1.38% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 35.1687 million yuan, down 39.52% year-on-year [1] Business Structure Challenges - Longda Food's core challenge lies in its imbalanced business structure, heavily reliant on the low-margin slaughtering business, which, despite its large revenue scale, contributes minimally to profits [2] - The pre-made food segment, positioned as a future growth engine, has faced significant revenue declines during the reporting period, indicating that the strategic transformation is more difficult than anticipated [2] - The pre-made food industry is characterized by intense competition, with a market landscape that shows insufficient consumer recognition despite policy support and capital empowerment [2] Financial Pressure and Debt Risks - The significant increase in financial expenses has further compressed the already limited profit margins, with interest burdens becoming a key factor dragging down overall performance [3] - The company faces notable short-term debt pressure, with a declining current ratio indicating weakened short-term solvency, thus increasing financial risk [3] - Longda Food exhibits a "high debt and high cash" phenomenon, raising questions about its financial management efficiency due to substantial short-term borrowings alongside considerable cash reserves [3] - The growing ratio of accounts receivable to revenue suggests a weakening ability to collect payments, increasing cash flow pressure [3] Strategic Responses - In response to current challenges, Longda Food is attempting various strategies, including controlling breeding scale, adjusting product structure, deepening processing business, and expanding new retail channels [3] - However, these measures have yet to reverse the declining performance, and the company must find more effective ways to enhance product competitiveness and market recognition in an increasingly competitive pre-made food industry [3]
风口浪尖下的预制菜|“预制菜第一股”味知香光环褪色,成本与渠道双压下的经营困局
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-09-18 10:04
Core Insights - Weizhi Xiang, once a darling of the capital market and known as the "first stock of prepared dishes," is facing a dilemma of increasing revenue without profit due to rising raw material costs and channel contraction [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.9468 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.46% [1] Cost Pressures and Profitability Challenges - The core issue for Weizhi Xiang is the continuous rise in raw material costs, particularly beef, which significantly impacts overall profitability due to its high proportion in the product structure [2] - Attempts to adjust product prices have not fully covered the cost increases, leading to a persistent decline in gross profit margins as cost growth outpaces revenue growth [2] Channel Contraction and Market Bottlenecks - The company is experiencing a reduction in the number of distributors, with both retail and wholesale channels shrinking, indicating challenges in market expansion [3] - Heavy reliance on the East China region, which has reached a growth ceiling, limits overall revenue growth despite strong performance in other regions [3] - The shift towards supermarket channels has provided short-term growth, but significant declines in direct sales and e-commerce revenues highlight a structural imbalance in the channel strategy [3] Industry Challenges - The prepared dishes industry faces multiple challenges, including low entry barriers, product homogeneity, channel competition, and insufficient consumer trust [3] - Consumer skepticism regarding the taste, safety, and nutrition of prepared dishes, compounded by negative events, has weakened market confidence [3] - Weizhi Xiang is attempting to address these challenges through channel adjustments, targeting lower-tier markets, expanding group meal clients, collaborating with leading supermarket chains, and diversifying product offerings [3][4] Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the company's measures to overcome its challenges remains to be seen, as it must navigate key hurdles related to cost control, consumer trust, and industry compliance to achieve profitability and reputation [4]