Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to resume interest rate hikes if the economy meets expectations, indicating a high probability of rate increases after two pauses [1][3] - The BOJ is closely monitoring price trends due to high global economic uncertainty, which has influenced its recent decisions to pause rate hikes [1][3] - Japan's inflation rate is currently at 3.6%, with core CPI at 3.2%, indicating a high inflation environment that necessitates continued interest rate increases [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's monetary policy is the key factor determining the direction of the Japanese yen, with projected rate hikes of 20 basis points in March 2024, 15 basis points in July 2024, and 25 basis points in January 2025 [3] - The divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the U.S. suggests that the yen could benefit during a period of dollar weakness, as Japan's inflation remains elevated while the U.S. is reducing rates [4] - The USDJPY is currently in a significant bearish trend, with recent lows at 146.5 and 139.8, but has entered a rebound phase since April 22, 2024 [6]

Long-term Trend Analysis Framework - Structural driving factors include interest rate differentials, economic growth differences, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [1] - The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUD/USD) fell by 40% from 2011 to 2015 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's continuous interest rate cuts [1] - OECD leading indicators show that when the US PMI exceeds the Eurozone by 3 percentage points, EUR/USD depreciates by an average of 5% annually [1] - The Taylor rule model can predict policy interest rate paths [1] - The US dollar has long-term deviations from PPP of about 15%, but it tends to revert to the mean over a 10-year cycle [1] Cyclical Analysis Models - The Kitchin cycle (3-4 years) reflects inventory adjustments affecting short-term fluctuations in commodity currencies [2] - The Juglar cycle (8-10 years) is driven by capital expenditure cycles impacting currency pairs like AUD/JPY [2] - The Kuznets cycle (15-25 years) shows a linkage between real estate cycles and currencies like CAD/CHF [2] - During the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, the US dollar appreciated by an average of 12% from 1994 to 2000 [2] Quantitative Analysis Tools - Trend identification can be achieved through the crossover of 150-day and 300-day EMAs [3] - The ADX indicator confirms trend strength, with values above 25 indicating strong trends [3] - The Hurst exponent is used to assess trend persistence, with values greater than 0.5 indicating trend continuation [3] Practical Strategy Development - In an expansion phase, strategies include going long on commodity currencies and managing positions using the Kelly formula [5] - In a recession phase, strategies involve going long on USD/JPY and employing volatility strategies [5] Cutting-edge Research Areas - The impact of carbon border taxes on euro pricing and the correlation between the El Niño index and AUD/BRL are being studied [6] - The interaction between stablecoin liquidity and the offshore dollar market is a focus area [6] - Development of a Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) to analyze dynamic relationships with Middle Eastern currencies [6] Classic Case Reviews - The 1992 British pound crisis was influenced by rising German interest rates while the UK maintained its exchange rate mechanism [7] - The 2015 Swiss franc decoupling was a result of contradictions between the Swiss National Bank's balance sheet expansion and its exchange rate policy [7] - The 2020 pandemic caused a liquidity crisis in the dollar market, leading to a sudden collapse of carry trades [7] Summary - Effective long-term cycle analysis requires a multi-layered framework that includes macro factors, market structure, and behavioral finance [8] - A mixed strategy of 70% trend following and 30% cycle adjustment is recommended, with a focus on monitoring the US 10-year Treasury volatility index (MOVE) and global forex liquidity indicators (FXLI) as leading indicators [8] - Attention should be given to the global debt cycle, which has reached a historical peak of 327% of global GDP, impacting currency valuation systems [8]

Group 1: Major Currency Pairs - EUR/USD is influenced by the policy divergence between the Fed and ECB, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 boosting the dollar [1]. - Economic data comparisons such as GDP, CPI, and various economic indices are critical for EUR/USD analysis [1]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on European energy supply, affect the euro's performance [2]. - The USD/JPY pair is driven by the interest rate differential and the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy, with adjustments in policy leading to significant currency movements [4][5]. - The USD/JPY is also affected by global risk sentiment, with a negative correlation to the VIX index [6]. - GBP/USD is shaped by the Bank of England's policy challenges, particularly balancing persistent inflation above 10% with recession risks [9]. - Post-Brexit trade issues and high energy prices further complicate the GBP/USD outlook [10][11]. Group 2: Commodity Currency Pairs - AUD/USD is primarily driven by commodity prices, especially iron ore, which constitutes 40% of Australia's exports [13]. - Changes in Chinese demand, particularly in real estate, significantly impact AUD/USD [14]. - The USD/CAD pair is influenced by oil prices, with Canada being the fourth-largest oil exporter globally [18]. - The Canadian economy's reliance on U.S. trade, with over 75% of exports going to the U.S., also plays a crucial role in USD/CAD dynamics [20]. Group 3: Safe-Haven Currency Pairs - USD/CHF is affected by European political risks, with the Swiss franc acting as a safe haven during crises [22]. - The Swiss economy's low inflation and high current account surplus support the long-term appreciation of the franc [23]. - Gold (XAU/USD) is influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, with significant demand seen in 2022 [27]. Group 4: Emerging Market Currency Pairs - The USD/TRY pair is impacted by extreme inflation in Turkey, which exceeded 80% in 2023, alongside irrational monetary policy decisions [32]. - The Turkish lira's depreciation is exacerbated by insufficient foreign reserves covering less than three months of imports [33]. - Geopolitical risks related to Turkey's relations with the U.S. and Europe also affect investor confidence [34]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis Tools - Economic indicators are prioritized differently for various currency pairs, with CPI differences and central bank decisions being top indicators for EUR/USD [36]. - Data release timings, such as U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, are critical for market volatility [37]. - A comprehensive analysis framework is essential for understanding the dynamics of currency pairs, focusing on both long-term structural factors and short-term events [46].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and foreign currencies gaining strength amidst geopolitical risks and inflation concerns Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold is gaining prominence due to central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, highlighting its value retention properties [2] - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate as the Bank of Japan signals tightening, making it an attractive option for short-term forex arbitrage [2] - The Swiss franc is viewed as a safe haven amid European instability, bolstered by the recovery of trust in the Swiss banking sector [3] Group 2: Alternative Assets - Bitcoin is being recognized for its anti-inflation properties following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, although its volatility remains a concern [4] - Rare earth resources are becoming strategic assets due to supply constraints and rising prices, making them suitable for long-term investment [4] Group 3: Pitfalls of Pseudo-Safe Assets - Oil is facing demand weakness despite OPEC+ production cuts, leading to a return to its commodity nature [5] - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are losing appeal due to rising interest rates, increasing liquidity risks [5] - Emerging market bonds are under pressure from a strong dollar, with heightened default risks in countries like Turkey and Argentina [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Conservative strategy suggests a portfolio of 60% gold ETFs, 30% yen cash, and 10% government bond reverse repos [6] - Aggressive strategy includes 50% Bitcoin, 30% rare earth stocks, and 20% Swiss franc deposits [6] - Balanced strategy recommends dollar-cost averaging in gold, holding Bitcoin, and hedging with yen forex options [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The search for the next "gold" is ongoing, with potential shifts in value driven by blockchain technology and green energy [7] - The core principles of scarcity and consensus value remain central to identifying safe-haven assets [7]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has drawn significant attention as it broke below the psychological level of 140, declining by as much as 0.7% to reach 139.90, marking the strongest level since September of the previous year [1] - The strong movement of the yen is influenced by complex economic and policy backgrounds, including heightened market risk aversion due to the ongoing trade war initiated by Trump, leading investors to sell US assets in favor of safe-haven assets like the yen [3] - Technical analysis indicates that if the yen clearly breaks the 140 level or the mid-level of 139 reached in September of last year, it could trigger further buying of yen and selling of USD, accelerating the yen's appreciation [4] Group 2 - The rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate are viewed negatively by many in the economic community, as they increase operational risks for businesses and disrupt normal international trade [5] - Despite the USD/JPY not significantly declining after breaking the 140 level, the overarching theme of "selling America" persists, indicating ongoing concerns about the US economic outlook [5] - The Bank of Japan currently sees no need to change its gradual rate hike stance, although market expectations for a rate hike have shifted, with the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year now at 59% [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on April 10, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, RMB exchange rates, stock indices of major economies, credit bond indices, as well as trading data of stock index futures, government bond futures, and money market interest rates. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: On April 10, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.428, 4.647, 3.352 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes vary by country. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.092, a weekly change of 0.295, a monthly change of 0.115, and an annual change of 0.227 [1]. - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: The 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on April 10, 2025, were 3.710, 3.899, 1.781 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differ among countries. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.020, a weekly change of - 0.180, a monthly change of - 0.330, and an annual change of - 0.830 [1]. - **US Dollar against Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On April 10, 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.886, with a latest change of 1.04%, a weekly change of 4.00%, a monthly change of 1.48%. Changes in other currency pairs also vary [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rates**: On April 10, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, middle price, and 12 - month NDF were 7.318, 7.309, 7.209, 7.141 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes are - 0.39%, 0.69%, 1.10%, 1.32% for on - shore RMB respectively [1]. - **Stock Indices**: On April 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 5268.050, with a latest change of - 3.46%, a weekly change of - 7.10%, and a monthly change of - 5.92%. Stock indices of other countries also have different performance and changes [1]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: On April 10, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3286.380, with a latest change of - 0.58%, a weekly change of - 2.64%, and a monthly change of - 1.61%. Other credit bond indices also show different trends [1]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3223.64, 3735.12, 2612.62, 1900.53, 5544.06 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 1.16%, 1.31%, 0.60%, 2.27%, 1.92% [2]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 12.07, 10.48, 27.28, 22.53, 16.88 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes of 0.10, 0.01, 0.49, - 0.81, 0.73 [2]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were - 440.01, - 295.29, N/A, - 124.82, - 93.11 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 4.72, 43.85, N/A, - 34.29, 148.46 respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext were 16094.68, 4038.43, 1148.06, 3082.80, 4251.57 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes of - 901.37, - 511.88, - 289.00, - 203.91, 62.67 [2]. - **Basis Spread**: The basis spreads of IF, IH, and IC were - 62.12, - 30.42, - 35.06 respectively, with corresponding spreads of - 1.66%, - 1.16%, - 0.63% [2]. Government Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 109.035, 106.500, 109.070, 106.635 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.13%, 0.16%, 0.13%, 0.16% [3]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.6842%, 1.7618%, 1.8000% respectively, with daily changes of - 16.00 BP, - 8.00 BP, - 1.00 BP [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on major global asset markets, including government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and credit bond indices, along with their changes over different time periods [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bonds**: On April 1, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.170%, 4.637%, 3.400% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.077% (Italy) to 0.023% (South Korea), with significant differences in one - year changes, such as - 0.754% for Japan and 0.643% for the UK [2]. - **2 - year Government Bonds**: The 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on April 1, 2025, were 3.890%, 4.171%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes varied, with - 0.080% for the US and 0.021% for Japan. One - year changes also showed large disparities, like - 0.790% for the US and 0.662% for Japan [2]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On April 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.683, with a latest change of - 0.41%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.472, with a latest change of 0.82%. One - year changes also differed, e.g., 14.13% for the Brazilian real and - 1.86% for the South African rand [2]. - **Renminbi**: On April 1, 2025, the on - shore renminbi was 7.270, the off - shore renminbi was 7.281, the middle - price was 7.178, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.100. The latest changes were 0.18%, 0.21%, - 0.01%, and 0.20% respectively. One - year changes were 0.98%, 0.82%, 1.17%, and 0.06% respectively [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On April 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5633.070, the S&P 500 was 41989.960, etc. The latest changes ranged from - 0.03% (S&P 500) to 2.82% (Taiwan stock index). One - year changes also varied, such as 7.47% for the Dow Jones and - 12.72% for the Nikkei [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: On April 1, 2025, the Malaysian stock index was not available, the Australian economic index was 8126.909, and another emerging economy's stock index was 1110.660. The latest changes were 0.92% and 0.84% respectively. One - year changes were 1.02% and 5.94% respectively [2]. Credit Bond Indices - On April 1, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3373.740, the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index was 258.470, etc. The latest changes were between 0.10% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index) and 0.25% (US investment - grade credit bond index). One - year changes were between 4.98% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) and 12.29% (emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index) [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On April 1, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3348.44, with a 0.38% increase. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 24.09, with a 0.09% month - on - month change. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.72, with a - 0.04% month - on - month change [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest A - share fund flow was - 236.42, and the 5 - day average was - 410.90. The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11322.67, with a month - on - month change of - 892.63 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium and Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.08, with a - 0.72% premium and discount rate; the basis of IH was - 0.91, with a - 0.03% premium and discount rate; the basis of IC was - 42.25, with a - 0.72% premium and discount rate [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On April 1, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.760, 105.570, 107.795, and 105.600 respectively, with small changes in the range of - 0.00% to - 0.02%. The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.9246%, 1.9802%, and 1.9070% respectively, with daily changes of - 38.00, - 32.00, and 0.00 BP respectively [4].