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50万亿天量存款即将到期
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-16 14:01
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of approximately 50 trillion yuan in fixed deposits by 2026 poses significant challenges for the banking sector in managing liabilities and may lead to a reallocation of household assets [3][4][5]. Group 1: Scale of Maturing Deposits - The maturity of fixed deposits is expected to reach around 50 trillion yuan in 2026, with a notable increase of about 10 trillion yuan from 2025 [4]. - The majority of this maturity will come from two- and three-year deposits, each exceeding 20 trillion yuan, while five-year deposits will be around 5-6 trillion yuan [4]. - Different research institutions estimate the total maturity of fixed deposits to be between 59 trillion and 75 trillion yuan, indicating a significant impact on the banking sector [5][6]. Group 2: Potential Directions for Maturing Funds - A substantial portion of the maturing funds is likely to remain within the banking system, as the deposit retention rate is high, around 96% [7]. - Consumers are expected to optimize their deposits by moving funds to banks offering higher interest rates, as seen in the case of a consumer moving funds from a state-owned bank to a city commercial bank [7]. - Consumer spending is projected to be a major outlet for these funds, with anticipated household consumption reaching 53 trillion yuan in 2025 [8]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Preferences - There is a growing trend towards reallocating funds into bank wealth management products, which are expected to see a net increase of approximately 3.7 trillion yuan in 2025 [8]. - Insurance products are also gaining popularity, particularly among high-net-worth individuals seeking long-term investment options [9]. - Some investors are diversifying their portfolios by allocating funds into bonds and stock-enhanced funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Bank Strategies - The banking sector is likely to face a re-pricing of a large volume of funds, with interest rates on large deposits declining significantly [16][17]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated potential for further interest rate cuts, which could help banks reduce their interest expenses and stabilize net interest margins [16]. - Banks are actively trying to optimize their liability structures by encouraging shorter-term deposits and promoting wealth management and insurance products [17][18].
6家企业集体遭警示
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-16 13:56
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny and penalties faced by companies in Dongguan, particularly ST Huilun, for financial misconduct and inadequate internal controls, indicating a broader trend of compliance issues among listed companies in the region [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Penalties - ST Huilun was fined 11.4 million due to concealing related party fund occupation and committing financial fraud for two consecutive years [1][4]. - ST Quanwei received a regulatory letter for related party fund occupation and internal control deficiencies, with a loan of 1.3 million from a related party identified as a significant issue [2][3]. - Guangdong TuoStar was issued a warning for inaccurate revenue recognition, including prematurely recognizing 7.9686 million in revenue, leading to inflated profits [3][5]. Group 2: Internal Control Issues - ST Huilun failed to disclose fund occupation matters, with a total fund occupation of 28.33 million, representing 5.12% of net assets, and inflated revenues by 25.49 million and 62.33 million in 2021 and 2022 respectively [4][5]. - Entropy Technology was warned for multiple financial disclosure violations, including inaccurate revenue recognition and insufficient bad debt provisions [3][5]. - Guangbo Laser faced regulatory measures for internal control deficiencies, including improper revenue recognition and failure to disclose related party transactions accurately [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The regulatory actions reflect a growing emphasis on compliance and the need for companies to enhance their governance and internal controls to protect investor interests [5][6]. - The penalties serve as a warning to other companies about the consequences of non-compliance, emphasizing the importance of accurate and reliable information disclosure [6].
50万亿“笼中虎”何处去?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2026-01-16 12:53
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming maturity of approximately 50 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits in China by 2026 is creating significant uncertainty among depositors regarding asset allocation strategies, as interest rates have declined from 3.1% to around 1.5% [1][2]. Group 1: Scale of Maturing Deposits - The discussion around the 50 trillion yuan in maturing fixed-term deposits has gained traction since the end of 2025, highlighting the challenges banks will face in managing liabilities [2]. - The surge in maturing deposits can be traced back to 2022-2023, when funds flowed back into fixed-term deposits due to a downturn in the real estate market and volatility in the stock and bond markets [3]. - Estimates from various research institutions indicate that the total maturing fixed-term deposits in 2026 will significantly impact banks' liabilities and residents' asset allocation [4][5]. Group 2: Potential Directions for Maturing Funds - The maturing funds are expected to be reallocated, but it is important to note that not all funds will leave the banking system; many will be optimized within it [6]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to be a primary outlet for these funds, with projected household consumption reaching 53 trillion yuan in 2025 [8]. - A portion of the funds will also be directed towards repaying mortgages, with an estimated 3 trillion yuan expected for early mortgage repayments in 2025 [8]. Group 3: Banking Strategies and Market Dynamics - Banks are currently engaged in competitive strategies to attract deposits, including raising interest rates on fixed-term deposits [7]. - The trend of "funds moving" within the banking system is evident, as depositors seek higher interest rates offered by smaller banks [6][7]. - The overall environment suggests that while some funds may flow into the stock market, the majority will likely remain within the banking system, reflecting a cautious approach among depositors [10][12]. Group 4: Impact on Banking Sector - The upcoming wave of maturing deposits presents a unique opportunity for banks to reprice their liabilities, potentially reducing annual costs by approximately 1.5 trillion yuan [14][16]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, which could further stabilize banks' interest margins [15][16]. - Banks are focusing on optimizing their liability structures, encouraging a shift from long-term to short-term deposits while promoting financial products to manage funds effectively [17][18].
长城证券:聘任周钟山为总裁、财务负责人,阮惠仙为董事会秘书
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 12:23
长城证券公告称,公司第三届董事会第十八次会议审议通过多项人事议案。聘任周钟山为公司总裁、财 务负责人,同时解聘其副总裁、董事会秘书职务;因职务调整,周钟山不再担任董事会秘书,公司聘任 阮惠仙为董事会秘书,两人任期均至本届董事会换届。周钟山曾任职于中国工商银行上海市分行,1998 年加入公司。阮惠仙2003年入职公司。两人目前均未持有公司股票,无相关关联关系,也不存在不得担 任高管的情形。 ...
律所集中度偏低反常!中伦锦天城领跑,A股IPO监管信号不简单
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 08:56
据深水财经社发布的《2025年A股上市公司发展报告中介机构篇》显示,2025年A股共有116家公司完成 首发上市,较上年增加16家。 2025年A股IPO市场暖意渐浓,全面注册制改革的深化让资本市场服务实体经济的功能愈发凸显。 作为企业上市进程中的核心枢纽,券商、会计师事务所、律师事务所三大中介机构的竞争格局与服务质 量,直接关系到IPO市场的健康度。 合计募集资金1317.71亿元,同比激增95.63%,创下近年新高。截至2025年末,两市A股上市公司总数 已达5469家。 头部集聚效应极致凸显 小睿就带大家拆解2025年A股IPO中介机构格局,头部扎堆抢食,监管趋严下 "看门人" 责任再升级。 容诚会计师事务所以29个IPO项目遥遥领先,天健、立信分别以20个和17个项目位列第二、第三。 容诚的异军突起得益于对硬科技企业的深耕,在半导体、生物医药等高景气赛道的项目储备量持续走 高。 专业细分成突围关键 天健则凭借浙江区域的深厚根基,成为浙商企业上市的首选合作伙伴,其申报项目储备量以74家位居行 业第一。 2025年券商IPO保荐赛道的"马太效应"呈现白热化态势,不仅项目数量高度集中,承销金额的头部垄断 特 ...
兜底又返佣,是公募违规销售?还是客户经理飞单?几个风险提示必看
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-16 08:55
Core Viewpoint - Recent allegations have emerged regarding brokers promoting public fund products with illegal practices, including promises of guaranteed returns and commission rebates, raising concerns about compliance in the industry [1][10]. Group 1: Allegations and Responses - A netizen reported that a client manager from Galaxy Securities promoted a product from Jinxin Fund, promising capital protection and high rebates while encouraging investors to bypass official sales channels [5][12]. - Jinxin Fund responded quickly, stating that they have reported the illegal fundraising activities to the police and clarified that the involved product had not been officially sold or authorized for distribution [10][14]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory authorities have repeatedly mandated that brokers must standardize their marketing practices, prohibiting inducements for investors lacking the willingness or capacity to invest [10][16]. - The regulations require strict adherence to investor suitability management, ensuring that products are matched to investors' qualifications and risk tolerance [10][16]. Group 3: Product and Investor Requirements - Jinxin Fund's asset management plans are only available to qualified investors, with specific criteria such as a minimum family financial net asset of 3 million yuan or an average annual income of 400,000 yuan over the past three years [14][15]. - The minimum initial investment for collective asset management plans is set at 10 million yuan, and individual investments must meet certain thresholds depending on the type of product [14][15]. Group 4: Industry Practices and Risks - The practice of "flying orders," where brokers recommend products without company authorization, is highlighted as a significant risk, especially when combined with tactics like pooling funds to meet investment thresholds [16][17]. - Despite increased regulatory scrutiny, some industry personnel continue to engage in these risky practices, leading to penalties for both individuals and branches involved in such activities [17][18].
陈茂波:不会下调股票印花税 本财年印花税增加主要来自股票
智通财经网· 2026-01-16 06:04
智通财经APP获悉,香港财政司司长陈茂波出席立法会财务委员会特别会议,对于香港政府会否设立机 制考虑审视股票印花税。陈茂波说,印花税是香港政府收入重要的部分,本财年印花税增加主要来自股 票,物业印花税就因市况仍未稳定而大幅缩减,认为要从公共财政和公众利益角度考虑。同时,香港政 府会考虑香港对比其他地区的竞争力,以免生意流失。 关于中小证券行科技转型,陈茂波表示,香港政府过往有根据合规成本、资讯科技(IT)投入等方面,透 过香港交易所对部分中小证券行作出补助,但他强调,业界亦应积极投入资源升级基础设施、IT系统 等,拥抱转变。 陈茂波又提到,香港经济有增长,失业率由3.9%回落至3.8%,随着经济转型,个别行业相对滞后,例 如金融市场及贸易表现好,转化至消费及零售则需时,但近期已有改善,尤其去年9月后,零售业销货 额每月同比增长6%至7%,餐饮则较零售恢复得较慢,相信建造业失业情况会随着香港楼市活跃而改 善。 陈茂波重申,不会再下调股票印花税,除非外围环境令香港竞争力不足,而根据早前的研究,认为目前 印花税水平在成交量、竞争力方面都是合适。至于房地产基金、交易所买卖基金等新领域则会较为宽 松,但会守住应收则收的 ...
央行:今年看降准降息还有一定空间,券商ETF(159842)盘中上涨,连续两日“吸金”累超2亿元
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2026-01-16 05:40
1月16日,三大指数集体上涨,截至发稿上证综指上涨0.58%,深证成指上涨0.64%,创业板指上涨 0.73%。中证全指证券公司指数上涨0.75%,该指数成分股中,西南证券与国盛证券上涨超2%,中银证 券与华泰证券等4只上涨超1%,东方财富、东方证券与华鑫股份上涨近1%。 相关ETF方面,券商ETF(159842)截至发稿上涨0.69%,成交额为2676.75万元,实时溢价率为 0.02%,盘中频现溢价交易。 资金流向方面,Wind金融终端数据显示,该ETF上个交易日(1月15日)净流入额为9972.88万元,截至 上个交易日,已连续2个交易日获资金净流入,累计净流入额为2.26亿元;截至1月15日,该ETF最新流 通份额为91.15亿份,最新流通规模为105.22亿元。 券商ETF(159842)密切跟踪中证全指证券公司指数,该指数聚焦了A股的大市值证券龙头,而且既有 传统证券龙头,也有金融科技龙头。 消息面上,中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,从今年看,降 准降息还有一定空间。从法定存款准备金率看,目前金融机构的法定存款准备金率平均为6.3%,降准 仍然还有空间。从政策 ...
央行尾盘送利好 债市迅速消化收益率先降后升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 05:33
新华财经北京1月16日电 15日午后,央行送上包括结构性货币政策工具降息在内的一系列政策大礼包, 债券市场反应强烈,国债期货尾盘十分钟迅速窜高,但收盘前有所回落,30年期主力合约仍以下跌收 盘。银行间现券收益率深V下探,收盘较消息出台时有所上行。以10年期国债为例,当日15:00前收益率 在1.85%附近窄幅震荡,央行发布会开始后直线下落约1.5BP,低点触及1.835%,随后反弹回升至 1.86%,日终收于1.855%。 规模较大的三年期及五年期等长期存款到期重定价,加之此次各项再贷款利率下调,这些都有助于降低 银行付息成本、稳定净息差,为降息创造一定空间。 黄伟平表示,稳增长要求社会综合融资成本下行。综合市场和经济基本面来看,近期呈现出"强预期、 弱现实"的特征,预期与现实的合理收敛仍需政策配合,这奠定了降息的基本环境。结合个人信用修 复、再贷款扩容等政策来看,结构性工具降息也是宽信用前置的标志,后续结构性工具+总量政策均降 息落地后,需更加关注一揽子政策对实体的提振效果。 至于债券市场投资者关注的央行国债买卖操作,预计将更加灵活,同时兼顾配合财政和维护金融市场平 稳。黄伟平判断,从政策沟通和预期引导的角 ...
中邮证券总经理龚启华入选“2025年度证券行业十大杰出人物”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 02:44
龚启华,1968年出⽣,⾹港公开⼤学⼯商管理硕⼠,曾任中邮资本总经理,中邮资产总经理、董事长, 中国邮政集团有限公司战略规划部(法律事务部)副总经理,中邮保险党委委员、副总经理兼财务总 监。2022年11月至2025年4月历任中邮证券董事、总经理;⾃2025年4⽉⾄今,任中邮证券董事、总经 理,代为履⾏董事长、法定代表⼈职务。 龚启华带领集团聚焦国家战略,业绩稳健增长,提供多元金融产品,服务企业直接融资,同时通过微 信、APP等渠道扩大服务覆盖。 "2025年度证券行业十大杰出人物"榜单围绕专业能力、业绩表现、行业影响力等维度综合评选得出。 | | 度证券行业十大? | | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 姓名 | 职务 | | 1 | 沈和付 | 国元证券节事长 | | 2 | 刘正斌 | 长江证券董事长 | | 3 | 李海超 | 上海证券董事长 | | 4 | 徐朝晖 | 西部证券董事长 | | 5 | 龚目求 | 中邮证券总经理 | | 6 | 顾伟 | 国联民生证券董事长 | | 7 | 刘健 | 申万宏源董事长 | | 8 | 林传辉 | 广发证券董事长 | | 9 | 朱健 ...