市场近期对人工智能将颠覆传统软件行业的恐慌情绪导致相关板块遭受重创，但来自华尔街主流机构的最新分析指出，这种抛售可能被严重夸大 了。汇丰银行在最新的报告中驳斥了"AI取代软件"的论调，认为这一辩论本身存在逻辑缺陷，软件供应商正在通过嵌入AI技术来扩展其总潜在市 场（TAM），而非被其取代。 此次市场震荡中，软件与服务板块面临了最严峻的估值下调。根据摩根士丹利的数据，市场抛售不仅剧烈而且缺乏区分度，大量基本面稳健、商 业模式优质的公司遭到无差别打击。该行指出，部分被市场误判为"受AI干扰"的企业，实际上正面临着巨大的估值修复机会。 与此同时，高盛的数据显示，软件行业的估值已经经历了剧烈的修正。仅仅一年前，软件行业曾以51倍的市盈率（P/E）位居股市之首，而如今其 市盈率已降至27倍，不仅不再是最昂贵的行业，甚至低于媒体、汽车、半导体和资本货物等板块。这表明市场对AI负面影响的定价可能已过度反 应。 机构普遍认为，AI对企业的初期影响更多体现在成本效率而非收入增长上。摩根士丹利调查显示，74%至90%的分析师认为AI将在未来12至24个 月内通过成本节约推动利润率提升，而仅有少数预计会带来营收的显著加速。这意味着 ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 2月13日，润和软件在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司重点面向人工智能行业应用 领域，在金融、能源电力、工业、医疗等行业领域推出了端到端的大模型解决方案及产品，赋能行业客 户的数智化转型。 ...

Core Insights - ReGrow Israel partners with Oracle Agriculture Data Intelligence to enhance agricultural recovery and resilience in Israel [1] - The platform integrates satellite imagery, ground data, and sensor feeds to provide real-time insights into soil conditions, crop progress, and water usage [1] - Oracle's AI models can forecast crop yields, detect threats, and quantify risks, aiding strategic agricultural planning [1] Company Overview - ReGrow Israel is a national initiative aimed at supporting the recovery and resilience of Israeli farmers, established by the NGO Volcani International Partnerships in collaboration with Mishkey HaNegev [1] - Oracle provides integrated applications and autonomous infrastructure through its cloud services, focusing on modern solutions for complex societal challenges [1] Industry Context - The Israeli agriculture sector has faced significant challenges over the past two years, emphasizing the resilience of farmers and organizations like ReGrow Israel [1] - The partnership with Oracle aims to optimize farming practices and improve productivity for future agricultural seasons [1]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has seen a 15% decline in stock price since the earnings report on January 28, primarily due to concerns over increased capital expenditures without a corresponding rise in Azure growth guidance and competition from new AI tools in the Office 365 business [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Azure Growth - Microsoft is adjusting its computing power allocation, increasing the share for internal research and Copilot from approximately 10% to 20% [3][5] - For fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures are projected to reach $148 billion, a 400% increase from fiscal year 2022 [3] - Current computing power allocation is about 70% for Azure and 30% for Copilot and internal research, with new GPU allocations approaching a more balanced 60/40 split [6] Group 2: Iceberg Model of Computing Investment - Goldman Sachs introduced an "iceberg analogy" to explain Microsoft's computing capital expenditure strategy, distinguishing between visible investments that directly impact Azure and Office 365 and invisible investments crucial for long-term strategy [4] - If all new computing capacity is allocated to Azure, its growth rate could exceed 40%, indicating a strategic postponement of some growth potential for long-term investments [4][10] Group 3: Drivers of Increased Internal Allocation - Four structural factors are driving the increased demand for Microsoft's computing power, leading to a significant evolution in capital expenditure structure [7] - Azure AI computing power accounts for the largest share, with a multiplier of 4-5 times for "computing power/quarterly new revenue," translating to $0.20 to $0.25 in revenue for every $1 of capital expenditure [8] Group 4: Copilot Investment Strategy - Microsoft is positioning Copilot as a cost-effective enterprise-level LLM solution, priced at approximately $30 per user per month, compared to ChatGPT Enterprise at $60 [12] - Copilot is beginning to make a substantial contribution to M365 commercial cloud revenue, projected to reach $89 billion in fiscal year 2026 [13] - The adoption rate of Copilot is increasing among both internal employees and external customers, driving up computing power consumption [9]

本期节目我们请回了一位老朋友——PingCAP CTO 东旭，聊聊他最近使用 Clawdbot 等各种热门产品的体悟和洞察。 本期播客原文约 21000 字，本文经过删减整理后约 7600 字。 曲凯 ：我们上次聊的主要是全球化（回顾： 抱着"不做就会死"的决心，才能真正做好全球化 ）。最近看你在密集使用各种 AI 产品，包括特别火的 Clawdbot，也写 了很多公众号（名称：我世界的源代码），正好借这个机会再和你聊聊。 东旭 ：太好了。我最近一直处在一个很亢奋的状态，每天都有很多想做的事。因为大概在去年 12 月底，Vibe Coding 出现了一个明显的飞跃，然后这种能力跃迁已 经开始从编程扩散到非编程场景，比如 Clawdbot 就是一个很好的例子。 曲凯 ：对。市场真的很神奇，过去几个月，大家其实都不知道下一个热点会是什么，主线也很模糊，结果突然又冒出一个这么火的东西。 但人是最大的瓶颈。 而在过去一年里，各种进步叠加之后，AI Coding 需要人类介入的比例可能已经降到了 0.1%。一旦人类这个瓶颈被移走，系统就能自己运转起来了。 曲凯 ：所以如果让你给过去一年的 AI Coding 打分，你会 ...

Core Insights - The City of Atlanta is modernizing its constituent services by expanding its partnership with Oracle and Deloitte, selecting Oracle Permitting and Licensing (OPAL) to enhance city planning, zoning, permitting, code enforcement, and inspections [1] - This initiative aims to streamline citizen services, reduce processing times, and support economic growth in Atlanta, which is projected to see a 30% population increase by 2050 [1] - The implementation of Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications has already led to increased productivity, cost reductions, and improved financial controls, with expected savings of $17.5 million over a 10-year period [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The City of Atlanta is adopting a unified IT approach by consolidating permitting within existing cloud infrastructure, which will minimize disparate systems and reduce maintenance overhead [1] - The project aims to enhance transparency and tracking for staff, businesses, and residents, automate reviews and workflows, and minimize approval bottlenecks [1] - Mayor Andre Dickens emphasized the project's importance in delivering affordable housing and creating inclusive neighborhoods [1] Group 2: Technology and Partnerships - Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications, including ERP, EPM, and HCM, are being utilized to improve financial reporting, planning, and HR processes, providing a comprehensive suite of AI-powered applications [1] - Deloitte has been a trusted advisor to the City of Atlanta for nearly nine years, leading the implementation of the current ATLcloud ERP solution, which positions them well for the new permitting system [1] - The collaboration between Deloitte and Oracle aims to leverage government and AI expertise to create a community-centric, data-driven approach for operational excellence [1]

Microsoft has been one of my favorite Majestic 7 stocks for some time. I wrote in January last year that the firm would be one of the better-positioned companies to benefit from the rise ofI aim to help uncover opportunities for investors that have strong potential risk-adjusted returns. I enjoy creating articles by arguing from first principles and walking readers through my reasoning step-by-step. I mostly cover tech stocks, ETFs, precious metals, dividend stocks, and undercovered opportunities in the mar ...

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 2月13日，东华软件在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司与腾讯在技术创新领域拥有 超过十年的合作历史，腾讯亦是公司重要股东之一。公司多款行业应用软件已在腾讯各类平台完成适 配，并成功落地交付多家客户。未来双方将继续深化合作，共同推进国产化算力基础设施与开源操作系 统相关生态建设，相关业务进展请以公司公告为准。 ...

Logistics Sector - Logistics stocks experienced significant declines due to AI-related fears, particularly after the introduction of a new tool called SemiCab from Algorhythm Holdings, which is marketed as a leading transportation platform [2][3] - C.H. Robinson and RXO saw their stock prices drop by as much as 20% on Thursday, with C.H. Robinson rebounding slightly by 0.7% in premarket trading, while RXO continued to decline by 1.5% [2] - Expeditors International of Washington fell over 16% on Thursday but was trading flat in premarket, while J.B. Hunt Transportation Services lost an additional 0.6% after a 9% drop the previous day [3] Real Estate Sector - The commercial real estate sector faced a continued sell-off, with CBRE among the hardest hit, extending its losses with a 0.6% decline in premarket trading [4] - Jones Lang LaSalle and Hudson Pacific Properties also saw marginal declines, while SL Green Realty rebounded slightly by 0.4% after a 5% drop on Thursday [4] Software Sector - Software stocks were affected by the broader market sell-off, with Palantir Technologies down 1.5% and Autodesk and Salesforce both down 0.1% in premarket trading [5] - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) lost around 3% on Thursday and is down approximately 23% year-to-date, indicating a bear market [6] - Notably, all "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks ended Thursday in negative territory, with Tesla leading the losses at 0.8% [6] Analyst Insights - UBS strategists noted that the recent developments validate AI's monetization potential and emphasize its transformative nature, suggesting that investors should diversify across sectors and geographies rather than focusing solely on the U.S. information technology sector [7] - Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities acknowledged that while some software companies may struggle due to AI advancements, the entire sector should not be discounted, highlighting that companies like Salesforce and ServiceNow will remain integral to the AI revolution [9][10]

Fears that artificial intelligence (AI) will rapidly disrupt software companies have been overdone, according to JPMorgan. The bank’s strategists believe parts of the sector are more resilient than believed, creating a potential opportunity for investors.“Given the positioning flush, overly bearish outlook on AI disruption of software and solid fundamentals, we believe the balance of risks is increasingly skewed towards a rebound,” said Dubravko Lakos‑Bujas, Head of Global Markets Strategy.In a recent note, ...