Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the domestic steel industry is experiencing a mixed trend in raw material prices, with export policies driving external prices higher while domestic prices remain under pressure [1][2] - Steel mills are currently in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing but steel inventory remaining low, suggesting a cautious approach to restocking due to weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday production [2][3] - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, indicating that previous raw material price increases may have started to impact financial statements [1][2] Group 2 - The average price of hot-rolled coils in major markets is reported at 3355 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week [3] - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton, while inventory levels at major ports have decreased [4] - The price index for domestic iron concentrate shows mixed results, with the price for 66% concentrate at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase, while overall iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise [5]

每经AI快讯，鞍钢股份(00347.HK)跌超5%，截至发稿跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

消息面上，1月30日，鞍钢股份发布公告，预期本公司(连同其子公司统称为"本集团")于截至2025年12 月31日止12个月归属于本公司股东的净亏损相比2024年同期将取得下降。归属于本公司股东的净亏损为 人民币40.77亿元左右，同比减亏人民币30.45亿元左右，减亏幅度约42.75%；归属于本公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益后的净亏损42.28亿元左右，比上年同期收窄约41.29%；基本每股亏损0.435元左右。 智通财经APP获悉，鞍钢股份(00347)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 公告称，亏损减少的原因为2025年，钢铁行业形势较上年有一定好转，但市场整体供强需弱态势局面尚 未根本改善。面对市场压力，本公司持续推进"聚焦价值创造、全面算账经营"工作，加大市场开拓和调 品力度，提升运营效率、深挖能源潜力，优化采购半径、着力系统降本，并先后安排主要产线大修改 造，提升市场竞争力，经营形势整体向好。 ...

公告称，亏损减少的原因为2025年，钢铁行业形势较上年有一定好转，但市场整体供强需弱态势局面尚 未根本改善。面对市场压力，本公司持续推进"聚焦价值创造、全面算账经营"工作，加大市场开拓和调 品力度，提升运营效率、深挖能源潜力，优化采购半径、着力系统降本，并先后安排主要产线大修改 造，提升市场竞争力，经营形势整体向好。 鞍钢股份（000898）(00347)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 消息面上，1月30日，鞍钢股份发布公告，预期本公司(连同其子公司统称为"本集团")于截至2025年12 月31日止12个月归属于本公司股东的净亏损相比2024年同期将取得下降。归属于本公司股东的净亏损为 人民币40.77亿元左右，同比减亏人民币30.45亿元左右，减亏幅度约42.75%；归属于本公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益后的净亏损42.28亿元左右，比上年同期收窄约41.29%；基本每股亏损0.435元左右。 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-02 所长 早读 为何贵金属大跌？ 观点分享： 周五，贵金属经历了一场惊心动魄的大波动。白银一度跌超 30%，创下 1980 年 3 月以 来的最大单日跌幅；黄金一度跌 11%，为 1980 年 1 月以来最惨重的一天。 其导火索是美联 储人事预期的突变：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主席，市场解读为鹰派转向，动摇此前 "央行独立性削弱—货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的叙事逻辑； 另外前期涨幅过大和高杠杆踩踏则是下跌的放大器：1 月黄金最高涨幅 30%、白银近 70%，价格处于历史高位，RSI 超买，交易拥挤，获利盘巨大。 再有交易所风控加码，高杠杆多头资金压力陡增，下跌触发连环止损→被动平仓→价格 续跌的恶性循环。后期贵金属走势将如何发展？我们的相关研究员将会持续关注和分享。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面与市场预期仍然偏强，价格下方空间较为有限。一方面，短期供需偏紧且现 货市场表现坚挺。上周 SMM 行业 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 2 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：沃什被提名为联储新主席 引发金银市场风险释放 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅回撤后多空争夺剧烈 高波动行情谨慎参与 18 | | 铜：沃什提名美联储主席，铜价快速回撤 19 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 20 | | 电解铝：警惕资金离场风险 20 | | 铸造铝合金：市场流动性收紧 铝合金随板块回调 21 | | 锌：关注市场情绪变化 22 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：官方 PMI 不及预期 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应总体宽松 | 盘面仍有压力 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The macro - level policy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with the compilation of the "15th Five - Year" plan to boost consumption and the implementation of consumption promotion actions [1][4][6] - Last week, the industrial data of the steel industry was mediocre. The output of rebar remained flat, apparent demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The data of hot - rolled coils changed little. Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, reducing steel supply. On the demand side, construction sites shut down, and trade transactions dropped significantly, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market. Overall, the market is mainly in a volatile state, and future attention should be paid to inventory trends and policy changes. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage % | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3128 | - 14 | - 0.45 | 5036448 | 2376275 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3288 | - 17 | - 0.51 | 1922037 | 1547118 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 791.5 | - 3.5 | - 0.44 | 1277262 | 555392 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1155.5 | - 1.5 | - 0.13 | 4894069 | 616871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1721.5 | - 0.5 | - 0.03 | 96984 | 38611 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. The seasonal weakening of demand suppressed steel prices, and market sentiment fluctuations increased price volatility. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2940 (0) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3250 (- 20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3270 (- 20) Yuan/ton [4] - Some steel mills have introduced relatively favorable winter storage policies for traders, mainly the post - settlement model, which reduces traders' risks when prices fall. Some regions have lock - price policies with a price range of 3130 - 3170 Yuan/ton, and some policies include interest support [4] - Most short - process steel mills will shut down in February, with the most concentrated shutdown period from February 1st to 8th, about one week later than last year, indicating that there are still small profits in production [4] 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand domestic demand, compile the "15th Five - Year" plan for consumption expansion, and promote the construction of a strong domestic market [1][4][6] - In February 2026, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the production volume of household air conditioners is expected to be 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decrease; refrigerators are expected to be 6 million units, a 17% decrease; and washing machines are expected to be 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decrease [6] - As of January 21, 2026, 12 steel mills have released winter storage policies. A new steel mill has joined, with a winter storage period from February 10th to March 28th, 2026. There are regulations on price - locking and a 20 - Yuan/ton rebate policy. Winter storage loans accrue interest at an annual rate of 5% [6] - The shutdown and restart plans of 39 electric arc furnace steel mills show a pattern of "slow start and fast shutdown before the holiday, and cautious and delayed restart". The shutdown time is concentrated from late January to early February, about 3 - 5 days later than in 2025. The restart time is generally more cautious, with the earliest restart on February 23rd and most enterprises planning to restart around the Lantern Festival. Nearly half of the enterprises' restart times are yet to be determined, later than in 2025 [6] - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a new balance. Affected by the new policy, China's steel exports in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared to the 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [6] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional spot price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2022 to 2026 [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The core issue involves Ba Yi Steel (600581.SH) and its controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Ba Yi Steel Group Co., Ltd., receiving an administrative penalty of 14.5 million yuan from the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau for violations of information disclosure regulations [1] - Between 2022 and 2024, Ba Yi Steel and its related parties engaged in significant non-operating fund transactions, with total receipts of 3.675 billion yuan and transfers of 3.642 billion yuan in 2022, 2.810 billion yuan received and 2.771 billion yuan transferred in 2023, and 2.514 billion yuan received and 2.535 billion yuan transferred in 2024 [1] - The company failed to disclose these transactions in a timely manner and did not include them in the corresponding annual reports, constituting a significant omission in periodic reporting [1] Group 2 - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has mandated Ba Yi Steel to correct its actions, issued a warning, and imposed a fine of 3 million yuan on the company [1] - The controlling shareholder, Ba Yi Steel Group, received a warning and a fine of 4 million yuan for its role in the violations [1] - Specific penalties were also imposed on key executives, including a fine of 3.5 million yuan on former chairman Wu Bin, 1.5 million yuan each on current director and general manager Liu Wenzhuang and former chief accountant Fan Guokang, and 1 million yuan on current chairman Ke Shanliang [1]