Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.42% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore have seen even higher gains [2][10] - Supply constraints and seasonal demand weakness are expected to lead to a gradual increase in steel prices [2][3] - The overall demand for steel is projected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Summary - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 84.9%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 6.92 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.02% [2][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2658 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.03 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 28,300 tons [2][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.67 million tons [2][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 0.43 tons week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 8.726 million tons, down 339,100 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 3.74% [2][42] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.854 million tons, down 28,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 0.74% [2][41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,439.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9.57 yuan/ton [2][48] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] - The profit for electric arc furnace rebar is -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [2][72] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2][72] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential for growth [2][73]

冬储行情渐行渐近，提示布局钢铁板块机会 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [冬储行情渐行渐近， Table_Title] 提示布局钢铁板块机会 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 1.93%，表现优于大盘；其中，特 钢板块上涨 2.56%， ...

银河证券认为，在供给侧"反内卷"持续推进的背景下，钢铁行业产能持续向优质龙头集中；从需求侧 看，特钢有望受益于制造业升级和AI转型。中长期来看，普钢龙头企业有望受益于行业供需格局的改 善。 国家综合整治钢铁行业"内卷式"竞争的一系列举措，加快落地。随着钢铁产品出口许可证管理即将实 施，国内钢铁市场结构性变化会进一步加快。过去5年，随着地产退潮，建筑用钢需求下滑，而以新能 源汽车为代表的制造业需求抬升，钢铁高质量发展的新叙事已经展开。 信达证券认为，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增 长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁 出口高位等支撑下保持平稳甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下钢铁供给总量趋紧且产业集中度持续趋 强，钢铁行业供需总体形势有望维持平稳。与此同时，经济高质量发展和新质生产力宏观趋势下，特别 是受益于能源周期、国产替代、高端装备制造的高壁垒高附加值的高端钢材有望充分受益。总体上，未 来钢铁行业产业格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已经处于价值低估区域，现阶段仍具结构性投资 机遇，尤其是拥有较高毛利率水平的优 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and continued manufacturing development [3] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply under the expectation of price control policies and increasing industry concentration [3] - The report suggests that there are structural investment opportunities in the steel sector, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects [3] Supply Situation - As of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 thousand tons week-on-week [26] - The total output of five major steel products is 6.957 million tons, down 3.20% week-on-week [26] Demand Situation - As of December 12, the consumption of five major steel products is 8.397 million tons, a decrease of 2.83% week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 98,000 tons, down 0.79% week-on-week [36] Inventory Situation - As of December 12, the social inventory of five major steel products is 9.417 million tons, down 3.76% week-on-week [44] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.904 million tons, up 0.86% week-on-week [44] Steel Prices & Profits - As of December 12, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,434.0 yuan/ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 21 yuan/ton, down 38.24% week-on-week [56] - The profit for electric arc furnace steel for construction is -25 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [56] Raw Material Situation - As of December 12, the spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 785 yuan/ton, down 0.63% week-on-week [74] - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke is 1,825 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton week-on-week [74] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [3] - It also suggests paying attention to companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring capabilities, such as Nanjing Steel and Maanshan Steel [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.54% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose by 1.28% [10] - The report indicates that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3] - The report suggests that the overall industry structure is likely to improve, with specific companies being undervalued and presenting structural investment opportunities [3] Supply Summary - As of December 5, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 87.1%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.323 million tons, down 2.38% week-on-week [27] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.187 million tons, a decrease of 3.78% week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.68% week-on-week [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders is 99,000 tons, a decrease of 5.31% week-on-week [35] Inventory Summary - The social inventory of five major steel products is 9.785 million tons, down 2.86% week-on-week [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.871 million tons, down 1.64% week-on-week [43] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,473.6 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.60% week-on-week [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 34 CNY/ton, an increase of 383.33% week-on-week [55] - The profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel is -25 CNY/ton, an increase of 59.02% week-on-week [55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 790 CNY/ton, down 0.75% week-on-week [71] - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,880 CNY/ton, down 55 CNY/ton week-on-week [71]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, continuous manufacturing development, and high steel exports [1] Group 1: Production and Demand - In October, China's stainless steel crude steel production reached 3.6244 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.22% [1] - The overall profit of the steel industry is declining, but the total steel demand is anticipated to remain stable due to various supportive factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Industry Structure - The supply side is expected to tighten under the influence of policy expectations, leading to increased industry concentration [1] - The macro trend of high-quality economic development and new productive forces is expected to benefit high-end steel products, particularly those with high barriers and added value [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The steel industry is expected to see a stable and improving industrial pattern, with some companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities [1] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control, as well as leading steel enterprises benefiting from economies of scale, are likely to have valuation recovery opportunities in the future [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Under the ongoing supply-side "anti-involution," steel production capacity is concentrating on quality leading companies [1] - On the demand side, special steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation, while leading companies in the ordinary steel sector may benefit from improvements in the industry supply-demand structure in the medium to long term [1]

库存 中 降，钢价震荡偏强 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [库存稳中有 Table_Title]降，钢价震荡偏强 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_ReportDate] ...

钢铁ETF（515210）跌超3%，行业供需格局改善，把握回调布局机会。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 银河证券指出，2025年前三季度钢铁行业效益显著改善，重点统计企业利润总额同比增长1.9倍，销售 利润率同比上升1.39个百分点至2.1%。供给端反内卷政策持续加码，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026年）》提出实施产能产量精准调控，严禁新增产能，推动行业增加值年均增长4%。需求结 构持续优化，制造业用钢占比从2020年的42%升至2024年的50%，高端产品如硅钢产量较2020年增长 48%，其中高磁感取向硅钢占比提升至68%。普钢板块表现突出，利润总额占比达58.38%。行业供需格 局改善，粗钢产量同比下降2.9%，表观消费量下降5.7%，出口同比增长9.2%，净出口量显著上升。基 金持仓同比增加22.44%，显示市场对龙头企业的关注度提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing fluctuations in production and demand, with a notable increase in capacity utilization rates, while prices and profits remain under pressure. The overall outlook suggests potential for recovery driven by government policies and market stabilization efforts. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a decrease of 229,800 tons or 3.07% week-on-week [2][3] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week and 28,200 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, down by 63,300 tons or 0.73% week-on-week [2][3] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons or 3.87% week-on-week [2][3] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a decrease of 136,100 tons or 1.27% week-on-week, but an increase of 306,100 tons year-on-year [3] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.16 million tons, down by 126,100 tons or 2.94% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [3] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47 yuan/ton or 0.07% week-on-week, but down by 6.85% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,581.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.59 yuan/ton or 0.16% week-on-week, and down by 3.37% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton or 25.64% week-on-week [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces is -155 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.0 yuan/ton or 4.32% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 786 yuan/ton, up by 10.0 yuan/ton or 1.29% week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] Market Outlook - The initiation of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment is expected to stabilize market confidence and positively impact steel prices [5] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, supported by government "stability growth" policies, with potential improvements in demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The industry is expected to see structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [6]