钢铁ETF（515210）跌超3%，行业供需格局改善，把握回调布局机会。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 银河证券指出，2025年前三季度钢铁行业效益显著改善，重点统计企业利润总额同比增长1.9倍，销售 利润率同比上升1.39个百分点至2.1%。供给端反内卷政策持续加码，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026年）》提出实施产能产量精准调控，严禁新增产能，推动行业增加值年均增长4%。需求结 构持续优化，制造业用钢占比从2020年的42%升至2024年的50%，高端产品如硅钢产量较2020年增长 48%，其中高磁感取向硅钢占比提升至68%。普钢板块表现突出，利润总额占比达58.38%。行业供需格 局改善，粗钢产量同比下降2.9%，表观消费量下降5.7%，出口同比增长9.2%，净出口量显著上升。基 金持仓同比增加22.44%，显示市场对龙头企业的关注度提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing fluctuations in production and demand, with a notable increase in capacity utilization rates, while prices and profits remain under pressure. The overall outlook suggests potential for recovery driven by government policies and market stabilization efforts. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a decrease of 229,800 tons or 3.07% week-on-week [2][3] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week and 28,200 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, down by 63,300 tons or 0.73% week-on-week [2][3] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons or 3.87% week-on-week [2][3] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a decrease of 136,100 tons or 1.27% week-on-week, but an increase of 306,100 tons year-on-year [3] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.16 million tons, down by 126,100 tons or 2.94% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [3] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47 yuan/ton or 0.07% week-on-week, but down by 6.85% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,581.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.59 yuan/ton or 0.16% week-on-week, and down by 3.37% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton or 25.64% week-on-week [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces is -155 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.0 yuan/ton or 4.32% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 786 yuan/ton, up by 10.0 yuan/ton or 1.29% week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] Market Outlook - The initiation of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment is expected to stabilize market confidence and positively impact steel prices [5] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, supported by government "stability growth" policies, with potential improvements in demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The industry is expected to see structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in prices and production, despite facing supply-demand imbalances and overall profit declines. The report suggests that the implementation of "stability growth" policies will support demand in real estate and infrastructure, leading to a potential marginal improvement in steel demand [4][6]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply due to policy expectations and increasing industry concentration. This is anticipated to create structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [4][6]. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace utilization stands at 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points [26]. - The total production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 229,800 tons, or 3.07% [26]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 63,300 tons, or 0.73% [34]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, which is an increase of 370 tons, or 3.87% week-on-week [34]. Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 136,100 tons, or 1.27%, but an increase of 30.61% year-on-year [42]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.160 million tons, down by 126,100 tons, or 2.94% week-on-week, and up by 6.35% year-on-year [42]. Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.47 yuan/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.85% [48]. - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel is -155 yuan/ton, up by 7 yuan/ton week-on-week [54]. Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 786 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [71]. - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,935 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 55 yuan/ton [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, as well as companies with excellent growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][16] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in net profit excluding non-recurring items and is actively expanding into high-end materials [1][8] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 43.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.1% to 2.176 billion yuan [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and developing advanced steel materials for various industries, including oil and gas equipment, new energy, and marine engineering [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 72.543 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3%. However, a decline of 15% is expected in 2024 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2.125 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, but a projected increase of 26% to 2.850 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The average selling price of the company's products decreased by 9.84% year-on-year to 3974.23 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2025, but the gross margin improved to 13.80%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, with joint ventures in Indonesia for coke production and a focus on advanced composite metal materials in the downstream [8] - The company is developing specialized steel products, including ultra-low temperature nickel-based steel and high-strength structural steel, which have received national recognition [7][8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.850 billion, 3.045 billion, and 3.181 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 11 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has shown a positive performance with a 4.57% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, driven by various sub-sectors including special steel and iron ore [1][2]. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 4.57%, with special steel up 3.89%, long products up 1.39%, and flat products up 4.20%. The iron ore sector rose by 11.38%, while steel consumables and trade circulation sectors increased by 4.99% and 4.38%, respectively [1][2]. Supply Situation - As of November 7, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate for sample steel companies was 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 50.9%, down 2.12 percentage points week-on-week. The production of five major steel products was 7.491 million tons, a decrease of 18.53 thousand tons or 2.41% week-on-week [2][3]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.669 million tons, down 49.47 thousand tons or 5.40% week-on-week. The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 96 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.79 thousand tons or 7.60% week-on-week [2][3]. Inventory Situation - As of November 7, the social inventory of five major steel products was 10.75 million tons, down 2.10 thousand tons or 0.19% week-on-week, but up 31.11% year-on-year. Factory inventory was 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 thousand tons or 1.85% week-on-week, and up 7.45% year-on-year [3][6]. Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton or 1.09% week-on-week, and down 8.28% year-on-year. The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton or 0.11% week-on-week, and down 3.62% year-on-year. The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton or 31.58% week-on-week [3][4]. Raw Material Situation - As of November 7, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton or 3.72% week-on-week. The price for main coking coal was 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week. The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite challenges in the steel industry, including supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. The industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with opportunities for structural investments in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.57%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and iron ore seeing significant gains [2][10] - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][34] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-end steel products benefiting from macro trends [3] Supply Situation - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week [24] - Electric furnace capacity utilization is at 50.9%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points week-on-week [24] - The total production of five major steel products is 749.1 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.53 million tons [24] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 866.9 million tons as of November 7, down 49.47 million tons week-on-week [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 0.79 million tons week-on-week [34] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.75 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.10 million tons [42] - Factory inventory stands at 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 million tons week-on-week [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [51] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong growth potential and those benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Core Points - The stock price of Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes has increased by 15.97% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 2.31% over the last five trading days [2] - The company reported a revenue of 27.183 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 699 million yuan, up 44.67% year-on-year [2] - Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes has a total market capitalization of 17.557 billion yuan as of November 6, with a trading volume of 96.162 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company’s main business revenue composition includes: ductile iron pipes and fittings (31.61%), special steel (24.89%), ordinary steel (23.42%), and other products (20.08%) [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 8.672 billion yuan, with 837 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 120,200, a decrease of 1.85% from the previous period, with an average of 32,403 circulating shares per person, an increase of 1.88% [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 51.2662 million shares, an increase of 20.2547 million shares from the previous period [3]

Industry Overview - The steel industry is currently facing challenges due to a decline in demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which has seen a 5.5% decrease in new housing sales area from January to September [2] - The production of pig iron and crude steel has also decreased, with pig iron production at 64.586 million tons (down 1.1%) and crude steel production at 74.625 million tons (down 2.9%) for the same period [5] - The overall steel output has increased by 5.4%, indicating a mixed performance in the industry [5] Market Dynamics - The prices of major steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled, medium-thick plates, and cold-rolled sheets have shown slight fluctuations, with rebar prices remaining stable and hot-rolled prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton [6] - The profit margins for these products are under pressure, with rebar and medium-thick plates showing negative margins of -9 yuan/ton and -147 yuan/ton respectively [6] Investment Insights - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend and high-return companies, particularly in the downstream sectors, due to the uncertain recovery timeline in real estate [1] - The high-end special steel sector is expected to grow rapidly, supported by government policies and increasing demand from industries such as renewable energy, shipbuilding, and aerospace [1] Production and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure has decreased by 0.5%, while investments in third-sector infrastructure have increased by 1.1% [3] - The automotive sector has shown strong performance, with vehicle production and sales increasing by 17.1% and 14.9% respectively in September [4] Future Outlook - The steel industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, focusing on quality, technology, and green practices, moving away from the previous model of scale and price competition [5] - The government has set a target for the steel industry's value-added growth at around 4% annually, aiming to stabilize economic benefits and optimize industry structure [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the capacity replacement method is expected to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity, with a replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron and steel production capacity [3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3] Supply Situation - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons week-on-week but an increase of 5.54 tons year-on-year [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.571 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons week-on-week [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.927 million tons as of October 24, an increase of 173,200 tons week-on-week [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 101,000 tons, up 390 tons week-on-week [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 10.997 million tons, a decrease of 261,400 tons week-on-week [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.552 million tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons week-on-week [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,421.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25 yuan/ton week-on-week [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,383 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 781 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [73] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [73] Company Valuation - Key listed companies in the steel sector are showing potential for valuation recovery, particularly those with high gross margins and strong cost control [3]

Group 1 - The stock price of Xinxing Casting increased by 2.00% on October 24, reaching 4.08 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 195 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.26%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 16.17 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Xinxing Casting's stock price has risen by 6.81%, with a 4.88% increase over the last five trading days, a 5.97% increase over the last 20 days, and a 3.29% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The company's main business includes the production of centrifugal ductile iron pipes and fittings, casting products, steel smelting and rolling processing, steel-plastic composite pipes, steel grids, and special steel pipes, with revenue composition being 31.61% from casting and pipe fittings, 24.89% from special steel, 23.42% from ordinary steel, and 20.08% from other products [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, the number of shareholders for Xinxing Casting was 122,400, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.36% to 31,805 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, Xinxing Casting reported a revenue of 17.73 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 404 million CNY, down 5.58% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Xinxing Casting has distributed a total of 8.67 billion CNY in dividends, with 837 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]