钢铁板块估值延续修复 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [钢铁板块估值延续修复 Table_Title] 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 11.80%，表现优于大盘；其中， 特钢板块上涨 12.77%，长材板块上涨 9.30%，板材板块上涨 11.5 3%；铁矿石板块上涨 12.32%，钢铁耗材板块上涨 14.57 ...

【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 钢铁板块估值延续修复 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [钢铁板块估值延续修复 Table_Title] 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 11.80%，表现优于大盘；其中， 特钢板块上涨 12.77%，长材板块上涨 9.30%，板材板块 ...

光大证券指出，钢铁行业供给侧在中短期展开的概率有所加强。原因在于：一方面，四季度上市钢企的 亏损情况已接近于2024年Q3、Q4，形势比人强，这增强了必要性；另一方面，2026年初以来，钢铁出 口政策缩紧，而直接/间接出口是2025年钢铁业效益的支柱，这一块在2026年势微，也需要供给侧的政 策来对冲。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁产业指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢 等子行业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 2月24日，钢铁ETF（515210）涨超2%，钢铁板块迎"开门红"。 消息面上，近期多家钢铁企业公布2026年首月生产"开门红"业绩。阳春新钢铁1月主要指标圆满完成， 产销率达101%并成功开拓海南市场；芜湖新兴多项指标创历史新高，优特钢发运量达近年最好水平； 方大达钢铁、钢、材产量均超额完成计划，自发电率稳定在95%以上。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity in the medium to long term, with a "positive" industry rating maintained [1] Market Performance - Last week, the steel sector rose by 1.01%, outperforming the broader market; the special steel sector increased by 1.80%, while long products fell by 3.15% and flat products rose by 1.24% [2] - Iron ore sector increased by 4.12%, while steel consumption materials and trade circulation sectors fell by 1.61% and 1.78% respectively [2] Supply Situation - As of February 13, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 86.4%, up by 0.72 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 21.0%, down by 27.11 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 6.96 million tons, a decrease of 248,600 tons or 3.45% week-on-week [2] Demand Situation - As of February 13, the consumption of five major steel products was 6.891 million tons, down by 715,800 tons or 9.41% week-on-week [2] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down by 48.24% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 13, social inventory of five major steel products was 10.267 million tons, up by 9.17% week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 4.161 million tons, also up by 4.71% week-on-week [3] Price and Profit Situation - As of February 13, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,409.5 yuan/ton, down by 0.14% week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,579.7 yuan/ton, down by 0.03% week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar was 80 yuan/ton, up by 23.08% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 14, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 754 yuan/ton, down by 1.44% week-on-week [4] - The price for primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4] Overall Assessment - The current inventory pressure for the five major steel products is relatively limited, with overall inventory at a historically low level and accumulation speed slower than previous years [5] - The profit margins for ordinary steel are favorable, indicating significant improvement potential for ordinary steel companies, which may lead to value recovery in the steel sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.01%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The supply situation indicates a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.4%, with a slight increase of 0.72 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand has decreased, with a total consumption of 689.1 million tons of steel, down 9.41% week-on-week [36] - Social inventory of steel has increased by 9.17% week-on-week, totaling 1,026.7 million tons, while factory inventory has also risen by 4.71% [45] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the comprehensive index for ordinary steel at 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 0.14% week-on-week [51] - Profit margins for rebar steel have improved, with a profit of 80 CNY/ton, an increase of 23.08% week-on-week [59] Supply Summary - As of February 13, the average daily pig iron production was 2.3049 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.91% [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces has decreased significantly by 27.11 percentage points to 21.0% [27] - The total production of the five major steel products was 6.96 million tons, down 3.45% week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products was 6.891 million tons, a decrease of 71.58 million tons week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down 48.24% week-on-week [36] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.443 million square meters, down 21.2% week-on-week [36] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products reached 10.267 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 86.26 million tons [45] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 4.161 million tons, up 4.71% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 4.73 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,579.7 CNY/ton, down 2.29 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,343 CNY/ton, down 8.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [59] - The profit for electric furnace steel was -48 CNY/ton, while the profit for rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [59] Investment Recommendations - Focus on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Consider companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring plans like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [3] - Pay attention to special steel companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has experienced a decline of 2.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down by 2.31% and iron ore down by 4.67% [10][12] - Supply metrics indicate that as of January 30, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sampled steel companies is 85.5%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand for the five major steel products has decreased, with a total consumption of 801.7 million tons, down by 7.78 million tons week-on-week [37] - Social inventory of the five major steel products has increased to 890.7 million tons, up by 22.27 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons [45] - The average price index for common steel is 3427.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.87 yuan/ton [51] - The report suggests that the recent safety incident at Baosteel may lead to temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support for the industry [3] Supply Summary - As of January 30, the daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 million tons [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces is reported at 55.7%, down by 2.23 percentage points week-on-week [27] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 722.4 million tons, an increase of 5.17 million tons week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products has decreased to 801.7 million tons, a decline of 0.96% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders is reported at 67,000 tons, down by 13.37% week-on-week [37] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products is at 890.7 million tons, up by 2.56% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory has decreased to 387.8 million tons, down by 0.22% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is at 3427.6 yuan/ton, down by 0.20% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.39% week-on-week [59] - The profit for construction steel produced in electric furnaces is at -80 yuan/ton, down by 26.98% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is at 793 yuan/ton, down by 12.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is reported at 1770 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [76]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a collective rise in stock prices, driven by potential supply constraints following a safety incident at Baogang Steel, which may lead to temporary production cuts and support for costs and supply [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Oriental Group (00581) increased by 5.97%, reaching HKD 1.42 [1] - China Hanking Holdings (03788) rose by 5.61%, reaching HKD 5.27 [1] - Tianshan Iron & Steel (01029) gained 1.92%, reaching HKD 0.53 [1] - Chongqing Steel (01053) increased by 1.64%, reaching HKD 1.24 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The safety incident at Baogang Steel may trigger safety inspections across steel mills, potentially leading to temporary production reductions, which could support costs and supply [1] - Current profits per ton of steel are favorable, and under the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry, there is significant room for performance improvement among general steel companies, indicating a potential for value recovery [1] - Guotai Junan Securities forecasts that steel demand is likely to gradually bottom out; even without considering supply policies, the prolonged period of minimal profits in the industry has begun to show signs of market clearing [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply could accelerate, leading to a quicker recovery in the industry's fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - Steel stocks collectively rose, with China Oriental Group increasing by 5.97% to HKD 1.42, China Hanking by 5.61% to HKD 5.27, Iron Ore by 1.92% to HKD 0.53, and Chongqing Steel by 1.64% to HKD 1.24 [1] - On January 18, a safety incident occurred at Baogang Steel Plate Plant, which may lead to safety inspections across steel mills and potential temporary production cuts, providing cost and supply support [1] - Current profits per ton of steel are substantial, and under the backdrop of "anti-involution" in the industry, there is significant room for performance improvement among ordinary steel companies, indicating a potential value recovery and favorable allocation opportunities in the steel sector [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities reported that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out; despite not considering supply policies, the industry has experienced prolonged micro-profit periods, and market-driven supply clearing is beginning to emerge [1] - The expectation is that the fundamentals of the steel industry will gradually recover, and if supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction will accelerate, leading to quicker progress in the industry's upward trajectory [1]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a strong performance with a weekly increase of 6.99%, outperforming the broader market [2][10] - The report highlights a potential investment opportunity in the steel sector due to supply disruptions and improving profitability [3] Supply Situation - As of January 23, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 85.5%, a week-on-week increase of 0.03 percentage points [2][25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.281 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 thousand tons [2][25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.172 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.95 thousand tons [2][25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.095 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 166 thousand tons [2][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders is 78 thousand tons, down 1.41 thousand tons week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 8.685 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.13 thousand tons [2][42] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.886 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.94 thousand tons [2][41] Price & Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,434.4 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 23.04 yuan/ton [2][47] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 61 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] - The profit for electric arc furnace produced construction steel is -63 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 24.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 805 yuan/ton, down 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][73] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,780 yuan/ton, up 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][73] Investment Recommendations - Focus on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Consider companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring plans like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [3] - Pay attention to special steel companies benefiting from the new energy cycle such as CITIC Special Steel and Jiuli Special Materials [3]