普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 高 升 煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, but with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [5][12] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to benefit from structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [5][12] Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.00% this week, underperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.37% [12] - Among the steel sub-sectors, special steel fell by 0.92%, long products by 1.44%, and flat products by 3.15% [12] Supply Data - As of August 15, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, up by 0.13 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.601 million tons, an increase of 0.27% week-on-week [25] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, a decrease of 1.74% week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 102,000 tons, down by 1.08% week-on-week [36] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.908 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 2.94% [44] - Factory inventory of five major steel products reached 4.251 million tons, up by 2.97% week-on-week [44] Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,566.4 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.10% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,638.7 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.01% [50] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 121 yuan, down by 23.42% week-on-week [59] - The profit per ton for electric arc furnace construction steel was -68 yuan, a significant decrease of 58.14% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 774 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain strong overall due to ongoing production cuts and favorable demand conditions, despite recent price declines and inventory increases [3][4] - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is likely to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a more concentrated supply structure, which may stabilize the overall supply-demand situation [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.26% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: special steel down 1.28%, long products down 4.00%, and flat products down 1.80% [10][12] - Iron ore and steel raw materials also saw declines, with iron ore down 5.96% and steel consumables down 3.74% [12] Supply Data - As of August 1, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 1.10 tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 1.56 percentage points to 57.1% [25] Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.52 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 161,000 tons, reflecting a 1.85% decline [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, down 2.07 tons week-on-week, marking an 18.00% decrease [35] Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased to 9.424 million tons, up 152,900 tons week-on-week, but down 25.37% year-on-year [43] - Factory inventory remained stable at 4.095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons [43] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,563.9 yuan/ton, down 42.25 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel index increased slightly to 6,629.6 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar production was 200 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 770 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [3][4]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.55%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights the impact of government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which is expected to improve the profitability of steel companies [3] - Despite facing supply-demand challenges, the overall demand for steel is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate and infrastructure [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was strong, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 8.04% and 9.04% respectively [10] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4223 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week decrease but a year-on-year increase of 2.58 million tons [3][25] 2. Supply Data - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% [25] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased by 22.38% week-on-week, reaching 115,000 tons [36] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.271 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.54% [44] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.094 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.48% [43] 5. Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,606.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week rise of 4.16% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel reached 6,625.5 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76% [50] 6. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 282 yuan, an increase of 64.91% week-on-week [59] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5 percentage points [59] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]

Supply Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total output of five major steel products reached 8.6819 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.79% [2] - The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.10% and a year-on-year increase of 1.16% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.27 percentage points [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 51.79%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.43 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 6.81 percentage points [2] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rose to 60.2%, stimulating some steel mills to resume production [2] Demand Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total consumption of five major steel products was 8.7011 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.28% [2] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,200 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.45% [2] - In June, the total export volume of steel reached 9.678 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 8.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] - The cumulative export volume in June was 58.1466 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 19.97% and a year-on-year increase of 9.22% [2] - Except for rebar, the consumption of other varieties showed a slight increase, driven by improved macro expectations and increased demand in the terminal manufacturing sector [2] Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 9.2211 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.80% [3] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.1555 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.43% [3] - The inventory pressure decreased as inventory shifted from steel mills to downstream [3] Cost Side - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 759.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [4] - The price for Indian iron ore (61% Fe) at Qingdao Port was 715.4 RMB/wet ton, with a week-on-week increase of 5.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.46% [4] - The comprehensive absolute price index for scrap steel was 2,372.81 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.93% [5] - The comprehensive absolute price index for foundry pig iron was 2,788.8 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [5] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,239.54 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.22% [5] Price Side - As of July 18, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,462.31 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.99%, a month-on-month increase of 2.91%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.43% [5] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,317.6 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.73% [5] - The global steel price index was 205.6 points as of July 11, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.59%, a month-on-month increase of 0.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68% [5] - Steel prices are expected to rise in the off-season due to the anticipated "anti-involution" policy and the rebound in raw material prices [5] Industry News - On July 18, 2025, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of industry and information technology in the first half of 2025, revealing that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [6] - The specific work plans will be released in the near future, focusing on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Investment Suggestions - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost the valuation of the sector [6] - The industry is expected to remain stable supported by the stabilization of real estate and construction, as well as a positive outlook for manufacturing [6] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration, structural adjustments in output, and high-quality product development as part of its transformation [6] - Recommended companies include industry leaders with product structure advantages and scale effects, such as Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Baosteel (600019.SH) [6] - Special steel companies with high barriers and high value-added products, such as Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), are also recommended [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector is experiencing a value reassessment due to the implementation of anti-involution policies, suggesting a turning point has been reached [2][3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing [3][5] - The report highlights that the profitability of ordinary steel is currently favorable, and under the backdrop of anti-involution, profit margins may continue to expand, leading to potential performance improvements for steel companies [3][5] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 0.45%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.09% [10] - Among the sub-sectors, long products increased by 2.53%, while special steel decreased by 0.02% [10][13] Key Data Supply - As of July 18, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.63 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.9%, up by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total output of five major steel products was 7.562 million tons, a decrease of 0.63% week-on-week [26] Demand - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.701 million tons, down by 0.34% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94 thousand tons, a decrease of 5.59% week-on-week [37] Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.221 million tons, up by 0.89% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.156 million tons, down by 2.35% week-on-week [45] Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,462.3 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar steel was 171 CNY/ton, down by 12.76% week-on-week [60] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,228 CNY/ton, an increase of 55 CNY/ton week-on-week [60] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel enterprises [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a 3.90% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and plate steel also experiencing gains [2][10] - Despite a decrease in iron and steel production, the average daily molten iron output remains above last year's levels, indicating resilience in the market [3][25] - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which may lead to a gradual recovery in steel prices and profitability [3][41] - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investments [3][34] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 3.90%, with sub-segments like special steel up by 1.64% and plate steel up by 4.51% [2][10] - Iron ore prices increased by 7.16%, indicating strong demand for raw materials [12] 2. Supply Data - As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.9%, down by 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.61 million tons, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous week [25][30] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.73 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.38% [34] - The transaction volume for construction steel was 99,000 tons, down 7.04% week-on-week [34] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.14 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.23% week-on-week, but down 29.02% year-on-year [41][39] - Factory inventory increased to 4.26 million tons, up 0.42% week-on-week [41][40] 5. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,428.5 CNY/ton, up 1.14% week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar production was 196 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.81% week-on-week [56] - The average cost of molten iron was 2,173 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 25 CNY/ton [56] 6. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in firms like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to see earnings growth [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in iron and steel production, indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][4] - The report highlights that despite challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4][6] - The report suggests that certain steel companies are undervalued and presents structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading companies with strong cost control [4][6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 2.16%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 2.64% and 3.70% respectively [3][11] - The average daily pig iron production reached 2.4229 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [25][40] Supply Data - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, with a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.703 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [25][24] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products decreased to 8.799 million tons, a decline of 0.49% week-on-week [33][29] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased slightly, indicating stable demand in that segment [33] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 9.065 million tons, down 0.72% week-on-week [40][37] - Factory inventory increased to 4.335 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.82% [40][38] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel decreased to 3344.6 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.49% week-on-week [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel fell to 6591.1 yuan/ton, down 0.29% week-on-week [46] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 145 yuan, a decrease of 6.45% week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2138 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [4][70]