合锻智能(603011) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 专用设备 高端成形机床单项冠军，前瞻布局聚变堆核心部件 ——合锻智能深度报告 投资要点 一、 公司是高端成形机床单项冠军，色选机国内第二 公司主营高端成形机床和智能分选设备，2019-2024 年收入复合增速 24%， 2024 年收入占比分别为色选机约 57%、液压机 29%、机压机 13%。公司是高端 成形机床领军企业，在汽车热成形领域，与德国舒勒、瑞典 APT 并列全球三大 供应商，市占率在国内处于绝对领先地位。全资子公司中科光电为国内色选机头 部企业，其品牌"安美达"位列品牌排行榜第二。" 高端成形机床：预计 2024-2030 年行业规模 CAGR 约为 5~7% 2024 年中国机床需求约 10407 亿元，金属成形机床约为 930 亿元，预计 2030 年 市场规模约为 1590 亿 ~1960 亿元，6 年复合增速 5~7%，竞争格局呈现本土企业 与外资品牌并存、分散与集聚交织的特征，市场集中度处于中等偏低水平，头部 企业形成局部优势， 但尚未形成绝对垄断地位。 智能分选设备：预计 2024~ ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index with a weekly increase of 2.23% while the index decreased by 0.44% [9][11] - The laser equipment sub-sector showed the best performance with a rise of 9.77% [13] - The overall PE-TTM valuation for the mechanical equipment industry increased by 2.21% this week [17] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 5th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification [9] - The top-performing sub-sectors included laser equipment (+9.86%), engineering components (+7.86%), and engineering machinery (+5.89%) [17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading robot manufacturers that are accelerating product cost reduction and channel expansion, with a recommendation to pay attention to core component suppliers such as Dechang Motor Holdings and Zhongdali [3] - Detection equipment is expected to see demand growth in consumer electronics and wafer-level scenarios, with companies like Changchuan Technology, Huafeng Measurement Control, and Bojie Co., Ltd. recommended for investment [3] - The demand for magnetic system-related detection, vacuum, ultrasonic, and reliability testing equipment is entering a release phase, with a focus on companies like Hezhu Intelligent and Wanyi Technology [3] Key Company Developments - Figure announced a successful C-round financing of over $1 billion, raising its post-financing valuation to $39 billion, indicating a clear path for the industrialization of general-purpose robots [4] - Bojie Co., Ltd. is expanding its product offerings in the semiconductor sector, with significant growth in demand for wearable testing equipment driven by AI glasses [26][30] - The company Jin Di plans to acquire a controlling stake in Guangzhou Uni Precision, enhancing its core competitiveness in precision processing [25]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a slight increase in the three major indices, with a focus on technology stocks, particularly in the consumer electronics, chip supply chain, and liquid cooling server sectors [1] - The total market turnover reached 2.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 206.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [4] Technology Sector - GPU leader Moer Thread's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is scheduled for September 26, leading to a surge in related concept stocks [1] - Zhongke Shuguang (603019) hit the daily limit, closing at 117.51 yuan per share, with a total market value exceeding 170 billion yuan [1] - The chip supply chain remained active, with Demingli (001309) achieving a historical high with two consecutive limit-ups, and Haiguang Information rising nearly 11% to also reach a historical high [1] - SMIC's stock increased over 6%, with a latest market value of 1.03 trillion yuan and a trading volume close to 20 billion yuan, ranking first in A-shares [1] Liquid Cooling Server Concept - The liquid cooling server concept stocks experienced fluctuations but ultimately surged, with Industrial Fulian (601138) rising significantly and breaking the 70 yuan per share mark, reaching a historical high [3] Zodiac Concept Stocks - Stocks with "horse" in their names saw significant gains, with multiple stocks like Tianyi Ma (301178) and Demar Technology rising sharply [5] - The upcoming Year of the Horse in the lunar calendar has led to increased speculation in zodiac-themed stocks, following a historical trend of such stocks gaining traction in the fourth quarter [6][7] Precious Metals Sector - The gold sector saw a strong performance towards the end of the trading day, with stocks like Zhongjin Gold (600489) and Hunan Silver (002716) experiencing significant increases [4] Tourism and Hotel Sector - The tourism and hotel sector faced a downturn, with the tourism and hotel index declining, particularly for companies like Tianfu Cultural Tourism (000558) [8] - As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, there is an increase in long-distance travel demand, with platforms reporting a notable rise in outbound travel intentions and flight bookings [10] Film and Entertainment Sector - The upcoming National Day holiday will see the release of over ten new films, indicating a trend towards sequels and IP-based productions, which may attract investor attention towards the film and cinema sector [11]

午后，A股三大指数再度走强，截至发稿，沪指涨0.06%，深证成指涨0.42%，创业板指涨0.45%。科创50指数午后拉升，截至发稿涨超3%。 盘面上，消费电子、贵金属、半导体芯片等方向涨幅居前，中科曙光触及涨停，报117.51元/股，总市值超1700亿元。海光信息涨超10%，和而泰涨停，东 芯股份、瑞芯微、龙芯中科、云天励飞、翱捷科技等跟涨。 | | | 中科曙光 | | | ri Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 603019 融 沪股通 | | | | | 117.51 >> | | 107.80 最高 | | 117.51 最低 106.00 | | | 换手 10.00% 10.68 | | 6.91% 总手 | | 101万 金额 115.47亿 | | | 总值 1719亿 流值 | | 1719 亿 市盈 ~ | | 117.98 重零 | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月Ｋ 更多, | | | 117.51 | | | | 10.00% 卖1 | | | | | | | 买1 117.51 13.3万 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment sector is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, with a weekly increase of 3.52% against the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.38% [2][11]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector has shown strong performance, particularly in laser equipment, which increased by 10.13% [2][11]. - The overall PE-TTM valuation for the mechanical equipment sector rose by 3.43%, with the highest performing sub-sectors being laser equipment (+10.53%), robotics (+7.21%), and industrial control equipment (+6.28%) [19][18]. - The report highlights significant developments in humanoid robots entering industrial applications, particularly in the semiconductor display industry, with a notable order of nearly 500 million yuan for deployment in various operations [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 7th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry rankings for the week [2][11]. - The sector's PE-TTM is currently at 37.1x, with the robotics sub-sector leading at 199.9x [18][19]. Key Developments - Major companies are advancing in product cost reduction and channel expansion, particularly in the robotics sector, with recommendations to focus on core component suppliers like 德昌电机控股 and 中大力德 [4]. - The advanced packaging industry is expected to benefit significantly from high demand for key equipment, with companies like 盛美上海 and 长川科技 highlighted for their growth potential [4]. - The report notes the acceleration of nuclear fusion engineering, with key technology demands expected to enhance industry activity, recommending关注西部超导 and 合锻智能 [4]. Company Announcements - 拓荆科技 plans to raise up to 46 billion yuan for the construction of a high-end semiconductor equipment industrialization base and a cutting-edge technology R&D center [27]. - The report mentions significant contracts and collaborations, including a 2.35 billion yuan industrial service contract signed by 博实股份 [29] and advancements in carbon-silicon technology by 晶盛机电 [31].

Z箍缩技术落地有望大幅拉动驱动器、聚变靶与爆室、深次临界裂变包层等领域的投 资。Z箍缩主要由驱动器、聚变靶与爆室、深次临界裂变包层等构成，驱动器选择直线变压 器（LTD）技术路线，采用"分而治之"的设计思想，合理降低了器件的功率要求。涉及的关 键技术主要包括高产额聚变靶设计技术、重复频率大电流驱动器设计技术、次临界能源堆设 计技术以及换靶机构和爆室设计技术。彭先觉院士提出3个发展阶段的任务目标，预计2040 年实现Z箍缩技术的商业化发电。1）关键技术攻关阶段（2024—2030年）。针对Z箍缩的3 项关键技术同步开展攻关，主要是聚变点火、长寿命重频驱动器和深度次临界能源包层； 2）工程演示阶段（2031—2040年）。2035年建成1000兆瓦级热功率的池式综合试验堆，采 民生证券近日发布可控核聚变行业深度：2025年7月聚变工业协会（FIA）发布《2025年 全球聚变行业》报告显示，过去5年全球聚变行业呈爆发式增长，总投资额从2021年的19亿 美元飙升至97亿美元，仅去年一年就新增26亿美元。这一增长态势，充分彰显了投资者信心 的成熟、聚变技术的突破以及供应链的快速整合。同时，2030年代被行业普遍视为聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the controllable nuclear fusion industry, particularly focusing on Z-pinch technology and its commercialization potential by 2030 [4]. Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion era is accelerating, with significant growth in global investment, rising from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion in 2025, indicating strong investor confidence and technological breakthroughs [1][20]. - Z-pinch technology is gaining traction due to its safety, economic efficiency, and environmental friendliness, positioning it as a viable alternative in the fusion technology landscape [2][3]. - The 2030s are recognized as a critical period for the commercialization of fusion energy, with many companies planning to operate demonstration power plants during this timeframe [26]. Summary by Sections 1. Accelerating Towards Controllable Nuclear Fusion - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing robust policy support and investment growth, with a projected commercialization period starting in 2030 [1][10]. - The report highlights the establishment of a multi-level policy framework in China to promote fusion energy development, including regulatory, industrial, and capital support [12][15]. 2. Inertial Confinement Technology and Z-Pinch Advancements - Z-pinch technology is emerging as a prominent method in inertial confinement fusion, with significant advancements in safety and economic viability [2][3]. - The report outlines the development stages for Z-pinch technology, including key technical challenges and milestones expected by 2040 [3][51]. 3. Global Investment Trends in Fusion Energy - The fusion industry has seen a surge in investment, with a notable increase in public funding and a diverse range of investors entering the market [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growing interest from various sectors, including technology venture capital, industrial giants, and sovereign funds, reflecting the industry's broad appeal [21][22]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in Z-pinch technology components, such as drivers, fusion targets, and subcritical fission blankets, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [4].

Market Stability - The market shows clear signs of stabilization, with a notable balance between the number of rising and falling stocks, indicating that market sentiment has largely stabilized [1] - The concept of a "slow bull" market is emphasized, suggesting that even after adjustments, the market tends to reach new highs due to continuous inflow of funds [1] Investment Opportunities - Current market fluctuations may present opportunities for sector rotation, particularly in the AI chip sector where some strong companies may have been "wrongly punished" despite explosive demand growth [1] - The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a promising area, along with the potential of controlled nuclear fusion as a future direction for humanity [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid-September is anticipated to have a high probability of interest rate cuts, which could create significant opportunities for commodities priced in dollars [1]

Group 1 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction; industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation; and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3,800 points, indicating that the market may not stop here and could reach new highs [3] - The market's upward momentum is supported by the accumulation of profit-making effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds, validating the logic of upward recommendations based on overcoming loss resistance [5] - The market is likely to experience structural rotation, with active trading and policy expectations providing support, while the focus remains on growth sectors that have shown high prosperity in the first half of the year [6] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and significant upcoming events, leading to increased inflow of incremental funds [7] - The market is characterized by a "healthy bull" environment, where structural rotation among sectors is crucial for sustained growth, with a focus on technology growth sectors [8] - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasing its presence in the A-share market, contributing to the stability of the current "slow bull" market [9] Group 4 - The market is expected to primarily exhibit a volatile trend, with limited space for strong continuation, indicating a preference for structural rotation rather than a broad market rally [10] - The focus on defensive dividend sectors is increasing, as they may provide stability amid tightening funds and pressure from major shareholders [11] - The "slow bull" market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach between financial and technology sectors [13][14]

Core Insights - The controlled nuclear fusion technology landscape is diversifying, with significant developments in magnetic confinement, Z-pinch, and FRC technologies [1][2] - Current nuclear fusion projects are primarily funded by public capital, while planned projects are increasingly driven by private investment, indicating a shift towards a more varied technological approach [2] - Major tech companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are actively investing in nuclear fusion companies, highlighting the growing interest and competition in the global fusion race [1][2] Group 1: Technological Developments - The Tokamak device is expected to benefit from breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting materials, potentially achieving grid-connected power generation by the 2030s [3] - The performance of Tokamak devices is significantly influenced by the strength of the toroidal magnetic field, with a theoretical increase in fusion power by an order of magnitude for every 1.8 times increase in magnetic field strength [3] - The emergence of new fusion companies utilizing high-temperature superconducting solutions, such as CFS and TokamakEnergy, indicates a shift in technological capabilities [3] Group 2: Investment and Market Dynamics - The domestic Z-pinch hybrid reactor is anticipated to accelerate its development, with significant private capital interest in FRC devices [4] - Helion's FRC device has seen substantial funding, totaling approximately $96 million from 2021 to the first half of 2025, indicating strong investor confidence [4] - The potential for commercial nuclear fusion plants could lead to annual investments reaching several hundred billion yuan if successful [2] Group 3: Industry Growth and Opportunities - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is entering a rapid incubation phase, moving towards commercialization [5] - Increased technological advancements and funding are driving the industry forward, creating investment opportunities in upstream equipment and materials [6] - Key beneficiaries of this growth include companies involved in superconducting materials, vacuum chambers, power systems, and detection equipment [6]