高盛将赣锋锂业H股的评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"，理由是下游市场短期反馈欠佳以及补库存增速放缓，导致锂现货价格面临下行风险。该行预测，全球锂 产能在2025年下半年相对需求将出现12%的短缺，但到2026年下半年将转为10%的过剩。 今日，港股"锂电双雄"下跌，跌超5%， 跌超4%。 01772 赣锋鋰業 交易中 11/24 09:57:44 48.200 + -2.700 -5.30% 最高 52.500 52.500 成交量 開市 48.080 前收 50.900 成交額 最低 5日 日K 周K 月K 季K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30关 (1D) ▼ 年K 52.936 51.918 50.900 49.882 48.864 48.200 47.846 成交量 VOL: 24.320 100.00 50.00 国邮 11/24 10:30 11:30 12:00 11:00 10:00 分富途牛牛 交易中 11/24 09:57:53 45 ↓ -1.940 -4.11% 09696 天齊鋰業 高盛指出，大多数中国锂业股票的当前估值已经消化了每吨1.62万至2.45万美元的锂价区间。这一价格区 ...

大和发布研报称，维持对赣锋锂业跑输大市"评级，目标价由23港元上调至53港元，为赣锋锂业A股折 让22%，并基于H股市场流动性改善。该行表示，据最新供需分析，预期今明两年全球锂供应过剩7.6万 吨及5.4万吨，低于去年的12.4万吨。该行相信中国锂价明年将在每吨7.5万至9万元人民币稳定下来，高 于该行早前预测赣锋锂业今明两年实现的每吨7万元人民币平均售价。 消息面上，据高盛最新发布研报指出，尽管锂市场基本面已显著改善，供需平衡预计将在明年上半年保 持紧张，但储能系统库存周期延长可能成为抵消因素。该行将2025年下半年中国碳酸锂基准现货价格预 测下调至每吨9500美元，较此前预期低14%。高盛将赣锋锂业H股评级从中性下调至卖出，理由是锂现 货价格面临下行风险，因下游市场短期反馈欠佳以及补库存增速放缓。这一评级调整覆盖多只中国锂业 股票，反映出投资银行对锂市场中期供需平衡的担忧。 赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)早盘跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.19%，报48.26港元，成交额5.3亿港元。 ...

高盛将赣锋锂业H股的评级从"中性"下调至"卖出"，理由是下游市场短期反馈欠佳以及补库存增速放 缓，导致锂现货价格面临下行风险。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares rating from Neutral to Sell, with a target price of HKD 32 [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines on November 21, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 2.38%, 3.21%, and 2.45% respectively, influenced by the downturn in global markets and concerns over liquidity and AI bubble risks [4][6][9] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10 million [4] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent saw declines of nearly 6%, 4.65%, and 1.77% respectively, reflecting the overall market sentiment [9] - The semiconductor sector also faced significant losses, with stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping by 6.39% and 6.09% respectively [11] Gold and Lithium Sectors - The decline in interest rate expectations led to a drop in international gold prices, with COMEX gold futures falling to approximately USD 4040 per ounce, resulting in declines for gold stocks such as China Silver Group and WanGuo Gold, which fell by 6.25% and 5.61% respectively [13][14] - Lithium stocks were heavily impacted, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium experiencing declines of 12.47% and 11.93% respectively, amid changes in trading fees for lithium futures [17][18] Analyst Insights - According to招商证券, the market's previous expectations of several marginal benefits are gradually being realized, which is shifting market sentiment towards optimism. The firm suggests focusing on AI and technology stocks, as well as sectors benefiting from overseas power shortages [20][21] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the electric power sector due to increasing demand driven by AI development, alongside opportunities in non-ferrous metals due to global easing and inflation expectations [21]

消息面上，11月以来，碳酸锂期货主力合约持续发力上涨。11月20日，广期所发布公告，调整碳酸锂期 货相关合约交易手续费标准及交易限额。11月21日早盘，碳酸锂期货主力合约跌超7%，报92960元/ 吨。华泰期货认为，前期行情主要由碳酸锂供需基本面推动，伴随资金逐步入场，近期更多体现为资金 面对价格的驱动，推动涨势加速。 大和近日发布研报称，对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)低开逾6%，截至发稿，跌6.1%，报54.6港元，成交额2098.88万港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yongshan Lithium Industry experienced a slight decline in stock price, with significant trading activity and high financing levels, indicating investor interest despite recent financial challenges [1][2]. Group 2 - On November 20, Yongshan Lithium Industry's stock fell by 0.81%, with a trading volume of 1.144 billion yuan. The financing buy-in amounted to 109 million yuan, while the net financing purchase was 22.77 million yuan [1]. - As of November 20, the total financing and securities lending balance for Yongshan Lithium Industry was 296 million yuan, which represents 4.69% of its market capitalization and is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with total revenue of 3.932 billion yuan, down 17.02% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 163 million yuan, a decrease of 421.90% year-on-year [2]. - Yongshan Lithium Industry's main business revenue composition includes 74.02% from molybdenum products and 25.33% from lithium products, with a small portion of 0.65% from other sources [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes showed significant differences among participants regarding the December interest - rate decision. Many thought it was not suitable to cut rates in December, while some were concerned about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The "new Fed newswire" believed that a slight majority of policymakers were uneasy about a December rate cut [8][23]. - For precious metals, the long - term upward trend of gold and silver is certain, but the short - term prices are volatile. Gold should be bought on dips, and silver may reach a new high this year if the macro - sentiment is favorable [9][10]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have been following the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil, and the long - term strength reversal of low - sulfur fuel oil should be watched out for [11]. - PX supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit, and its price has risen [12]. - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, but the risk of a price correction in the first - quarter demand off - season should be noted [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting and Macro - news - The Fed meeting minutes revealed that participants had different views on the December policy decision. Some thought a rate cut in December might be appropriate, many preferred to keep rates unchanged this year. Most believed that rate cuts in the context of high inflation and a cooling job market could exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term debt holdings [8]. - U.S. economic data is missing after the government shutdown, which has reduced the December rate - cut expectations. The 10 - month non - farm payroll report will not be released, and the 11 - month report is rescheduled to December 16 [10]. 3.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The price has been affected by the change in rate - cut expectations. The recent fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 937.00 with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session price was 935.42 with a 0.53% increase. The overall trend is that the long - term is upward, but short - term fluctuations are large [9][10][20]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12141 with a daily increase of 3.81%, and the night - session price was 12035.00 with a 0.63% increase. The spot supply is tight, and there is potential for a new high [9][10][20]. 3.3 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot trading was active in November, but the premium remained low. With the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East, the supply is expected to increase, and it will be under pressure in the Asia - Pacific region [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has been strengthening recently due to ongoing refinery maintenance in Brazil, Japan, etc., and the high cracking spread of European gasoline and diesel. However, as overseas refineries return to operation in mid - November, there is a risk of price decline [11]. 3.4 PX - The supply of PX is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit. The price has risen, and operations such as 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene hedging are recommended [12]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is strong, but the industry is still in the de - stocking cycle. The spot trading is light, and downstream acceptance of high - price lithium salts is low. In the medium - term, the risk of price correction in the first - quarter off - season should be noted [13][48]. 3.6 Other Commodities - Copper: The price lacks a clear driver and is in a state of shock. The fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 86110 with a 0.53% daily increase [24]. - Zinc: LME inventories have increased. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22420 with a 0.49% daily increase [27]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17250 with a 0.12% daily increase [30]. - Tin: The price has fallen from a high level. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 288890 with a - 0.51% daily increase [34]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 21570 [39]. - Nickel: The price has broken through the support level and is under pressure. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 115650 [42]. - Stainless steel: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downside space is limited. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12335 [43]. - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rallies. The price of Si2601 closed at 9390 [52]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when the positive - arbitrage funds leave the market. The price of PS2601 closed at 54625 [52]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The price of the iron - ore futures contract closed at 791.5 [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of RB2601 closed at 3070, and the price of HC2601 closed at 3277 [58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5462, and the price of silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5642 [62]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of JM2601 closed at 1139.5, and the price of J2601 closed at 1639 [65]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a rebound after three consecutive declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous period, with nearly 4,200 stocks declining [1]. ETF Performance - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 3.27%, closing with a gain of 2.48%. The chemical ETF (516020) also rose by over 1%. The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, attracting significant capital inflow, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF accumulating 1.96 billion yuan over three days [3][4]. - The largest bank ETF (512800) rose nearly 1%, recovering above all moving averages, indicating a strong medium to long-term trend [8][10]. Sector Highlights - The non-ferrous metal sector attracted over 8.2 billion yuan in net inflow, making it the top sector in terms of capital absorption among 31 primary industries. Key stocks in this sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant price increases, with Zhongjin Gold rising over 8% [6][7]. - The banking sector showed strong performance, with China Bank surging 3.81%, marking its largest single-day gain in a year and reaching a historical high. Other banks like Everbright Bank and Ping An Bank also saw gains of nearly 2% [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a "barbell strategy," balancing value and growth styles to capture excess returns in advantageous sectors. The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to perform well due to rising demand and supply constraints, with projections indicating a potential bull market in 2026 [3][7][12]. - The banking sector is benefiting from low valuations and high dividend yields, which are becoming increasingly attractive amid year-end risk aversion. The upcoming mid-term dividend distributions from banks are expected to further enhance their appeal to investors [11][13].