Company Overview - Alcoa is set to announce its earnings on July 16, 2025, with consensus earnings estimated at approximately $0.51 per share and revenues projected to increase by nearly 2% year-over-year [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $7.9 billion and reported revenue of $13 billion over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $1.6 billion and net income of $860 million [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations are influenced by tariff disruptions, mixed performance among business units, and uncertain aluminum demand, slightly offset by strong alumina margins and effective internal cost management [2] - The Alumina segment is expected to remain robust due to steady demand and advantageous cost structures, while the Aluminum segment faces challenges from elevated costs and weak global pricing [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Alcoa has documented 19 earnings data points, with positive one-day (1D) returns observed approximately 32% of the time, which declines to 25% over the last three years [5] - The median of the six positive returns is 3.1%, while the median of the thirteen negative returns is -5.4% [5]

Company Overview - Constellium SE (NYSE: CSTM) is a global leader in developing innovative, value-added aluminum products for various markets, including aerospace, packaging, and automotive [3]. Upcoming Events - Constellium will host a conference call and webcast on July 29, 2025, at 10:00 AM (Eastern Time) to announce its second quarter 2025 results [1]. - The press release regarding the results will be sent before market opening on the same day [1]. Access Information - Details for the conference call, webcast, and accompanying presentation will be available on the Constellium Investor Relations page [2]. - The conference call can be accessed via telephone using specific numbers for the United States, France, Germany, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, with an access code provided [2]. - An archived recording of the conference call will be available on the company's website for three weeks following the event [2]. Financial Performance - Constellium generated $7.3 billion in revenue in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump administration's recent tariff increases are expected to significantly impact consumer prices, similar to the effects observed during the 2018-2019 trade war [2][5] - Preliminary data indicates that the effective tariff rate has increased by approximately 7.2 percentage points (pp) as of May, with expectations of a total increase to about 14pp with additional sectoral tariffs [14][29] - The analysis suggests that foreign exporters have absorbed about 20% of the tariff costs, while the remaining costs are split between US businesses and consumers [29][34] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation and Effects - Tariff hikes began in early February, with significant increases taking effect in April, leading to delayed impacts on consumer prices due to shipping and payment delays [2][8][10] - The effective tariff rate is estimated to have risen by 9pp, with customs revenue indicating a lower increase of 7.2pp due to various delays [14][18] Cost Absorption and Price Changes - Price data through May shows that a 1pp increase in product-level tariff rates has led to a 0.2% decline in import prices, primarily driven by China [21][27] - The share of tariff costs passed onto consumers increased from 0% in the first month to 10% after two months, and to 40% after three months [3][46] Core PCE Inflation Forecast - Tariffs have raised core PCE prices by approximately 6 basis points (bp) this year, suggesting that without tariffs, the current core PCE inflation rate of 2.7% would be 2.6% [52] - The report maintains an unchanged inflation forecast, expecting tariff effects to boost core PCE inflation by about 1pp this year, leading to a year-over-year rate of around 3.3% in December [53][58]

Group 1 - Alcoa Corporation is facing significant challenges due to a 50% tariff on Canadian aluminum imports into the U.S. [1] - The tariff could disrupt management's debt and capital return program [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of considering the entire investment ecosystem rather than evaluating a company in isolation [1]

Chinese tycoons are turbo-charging Indonesia’s aluminum industry with multi-billion dollar projects that rival vast bets on the country’s nickel riches roughly a decade ago https://t.co/rPLMrSbJjC ...

Investment Rating - The latest sector pecking order for investment is aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery for aluminum in China remain cautious, with production data showing a flat week-over-week (WoW) performance but a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 26 to July 2, 2025, was 844kt, with aluminum billet production at 349kt, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW but an 8% increase YoY [1][2] - The year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production in China reached 22.6 million tonnes (mnt), marking a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 9.1mnt, up 6.4% YoY [1] Production Summary - Total aluminum production in China was 844kt for the week, flat WoW, and up 2% YoY [1] - Aluminum billet production was 349kt, down 2% WoW, but up 8% YoY [1] - YTD aluminum production was 22.6mnt, with a 3.2% YoY increase [1] Inventory Summary - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 773kt on July 3, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 33% decrease YoY [2] - The inventory of aluminum ingot was 517kt, up 2% WoW and down 41% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 256kt, up 5% WoW and down 8% YoY [2] Consumption Summary - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 833kt for the week, flat WoW and down 1% YoY [3] - Aluminum ingot apparent consumption was 864kt, flat WoW, and up 4% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 318kt, down 2% WoW and down 4% YoY [3] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 23.3mnt, with a 5.7% YoY increase [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the aluminum industry but provides insights into demand trends and expectations for growth in specific sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - Aluminum demand in the solar power industry is expected to increase by 5-8% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, despite a recent decline in demand since mid-May [1][4]. - Overall aluminum demand in China is projected to grow by 3-4% YoY in 2025, with a weaker growth forecast for the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. - The demand for aluminum building profiles is anticipated to decrease by 8-10% YoY in 2025, showing a slight improvement from a 10% YoY decrease in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production - The weekly semi-aluminum products output was approximately 610kt in early July 2025, reflecting a 7.5% YoY increase, while the aluminum profile output was around 190kt, down 6% YoY [2]. - The weekly aluminum foil sheet output was about 370kt, showing a slight decline of 1% YoY [2]. Demand Trends - The aluminum demand from the solar power industry is primarily for industrial profiles and foil sheets, with a noted decrease in demand since mid-May, which has slowed into July [1][4]. - The apparent consumption of aluminum is expected to remain weak in July but may rebound in September and October, with potential growth in the automotive and electricity sectors [3]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels for aluminum profile mills are around 520kt, which is a 20% decrease YoY, with raw materials and finished goods inventories down 18% and 21% YoY, respectively [6].

Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminum maker that’s partially owned by Rio Tinto, is planning to commit as much as C$1.5 billion to modernizing its facilities in northern Quebec https://t.co/DnQikFUeyz ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Guinea holds the world's largest bauxite reserves, accounting for 25.52% of the total [1] - Aluminum is the third most abundant metal in the Earth's crust, following oxygen and silicon [1] - Global bauxite resources are concentrated in a few countries, including Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, China, India, and Russia [1] - China is the largest consumer and importer of bauxite, with a significant role in the global bauxite industry [1] - As of the end of 2024, the proven bauxite reserves globally are approximately 2.9 billion tons, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of about 64.44 years [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - There is an increasing demand for lightweight aluminum profiles globally, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [4] - The rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is creating new opportunities for the aluminum profile industry [4] - The application of aluminum profiles in various sectors is deepening, leading to a significant increase in demand [4] Group 3: Company Rankings and Performance - In April 2024, the top companies in China's industrial aluminum profile sector were announced, with Conglin Aluminum Technology, Dingmei New Materials, and Fen'an Aluminum ranking in the top three [7][8] - The top companies in aluminum melting and casting services included Hunan Baling Kiln Energy Saving, Guangdong Jucheng Equipment Technology, and Zhejiang Lanwei Environmental Protection Equipment [9] - Major listed companies in the aluminum industry include China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co., with revenues exceeding 30 billion yuan [10][11] - China Aluminum leads in revenue with 136.36 billion yuan from the primary aluminum segment, while Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. also show strong performance [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on aluminum and lithium sectors while being less bullish on steel names, indicating a preference for aluminum and lithium investments [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for steel supply reform, anticipates a near-term bottom for lithium prices, and expects potential corporate actions from aluminum companies in China [1]. - It highlights that aluminum and lithium stocks have performed well, while steel stocks have lagged behind, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [1]. - The report ranks the sectors in the following order: aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The aluminum sector is viewed as undervalued relative to mid-term fundamentals, with expectations for a re-rating driven by a cap on smelting capacity and improved margins [2]. - Shareholder return policies from companies like Hongqiao and Chalco are generating investor interest, with Chalco initiating share buybacks [2]. Steel - The anticipated steel supply reform has been delayed, with internal communications between local governments and steel mills ongoing [6]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a decline in pig iron output of approximately 3% year-over-year in May 2025, contrasting with a 4% increase reported by MySteel [6]. Lithium - The report suggests that lithium prices are nearing a short-term trough at Rmb60,000 per ton, with expectations of production cuts to stabilize the market [8]. - Investors are concerned about the potential restart of suspended supply if prices rebound to Rmb70,000 per ton, alongside ongoing capacity additions in the pipeline [8].