Constellium (CSTM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 30, 2025 10:00 AM ET Speaker0 Good morning or good afternoon, all, and welcome to the Constellium First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. I will now hand over to Jason Hirschweizer, Director of Investor Relations, begin. So Jason, please go ahead. Speaker1 Thank you, Adam. I would like to welcome everyone to our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive ...

First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call April 30, 2025 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This presentation may contain "forward-looking statements" with respect to our business, results of operations and financial condition, and our expectations or beliefs concerning future events and conditions. You can identify forward-looking statements because they con ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellium SE reported solid financial results for Q1 2025 despite ongoing demand weakness in most end markets, with a focus on cost reduction and operational performance [2][3][4] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 shipments totaled 372 thousand metric tons, a decrease of 2% compared to Q1 2024 [4][43] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.979 billion, representing a 5% increase from $1.880 billion in Q1 2024 [3][6] - Net income increased to $38 million in Q1 2025 from $22 million in Q1 2024 [3][14] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $186 million in Q1 2025, up from $146 million in Q1 2024 [3][6] Segment Performance - Aerospace & Transportation (A&T) segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $75 million, down 14% from $87 million in Q1 2024, with shipments decreasing by 11% [7] - Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products (P&ARP) segment saw Adjusted EBITDA increase by 25% to $60 million, with shipments up 2% [8] - Automotive Structures & Industry (AS&I) segment's Adjusted EBITDA fell 50% to $16 million, with shipments down 12% [9] Cash Flow and Capital Management - Cash from operations was $58 million, while Free Cash Flow was negative at $(3) million [15][16] - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $15 million during the quarter [5][17] - Leverage ratio stood at 3.3x as of March 31, 2025 [5] Outlook - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting Adjusted EBITDA between $600 million and $630 million, and Free Cash Flow exceeding $120 million [2][20] - Long-term targets include Adjusted EBITDA of $900 million and Free Cash Flow of $300 million by 2028 [20]

Financial Performance - Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was NOK 9,516 million, a significant increase from NOK 5,411 million in the same quarter last year, driven by higher alumina and aluminium prices, along with positive currency effects [1][17] - The net income for Q1 2025 amounted to NOK 5,861 million, which included a NOK 1,324 million unrealized derivative gain and impairment charges of NOK 282 million [18] - Adjusted EBITDA for Bauxite & Alumina rose from NOK 804 million to NOK 5,135 million, primarily due to higher alumina prices and lower raw material costs [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Aluminium Metal increased from NOK 1,965 million to NOK 2,546 million, supported by higher all-in metal prices and lower carbon and energy costs [14] Market Dynamics - Global primary aluminium consumption increased by 1.5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2025, with a 1.7 percent rise in demand outside China [4][14] - The automotive sector faced challenges with lower light vehicle production in Europe, impacting aluminium demand, although this was somewhat offset by increased production of electric vehicles [4][16] - The U.S. trade policy has expanded Section 232 tariffs, but Hydro's exposure to aluminium tariffs is limited due to domestic sourcing and pass-through pricing [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Hydro is revising down its 2025 annual adjusted EBITDA outlook due to uncertain markets, with estimates ranging from NOK 3.5 billion to NOK 4.5 billion [5] - The company is implementing firm measures to optimize its portfolio and cut costs, including restructuring efforts and the closure of certain facilities [5][6] - Hydro is investing NOK 1.65 billion in a new wire rod casthouse at its Karmøy smelter, expected to begin production in 2028, alongside a long-term offtake agreement with NKT valued at approximately EUR 1 billion [10][11] Recycling and Sustainability - Hydro is committed to cutting hot metal costs by USD 20–30 per tonne by 2030 in its recycling segment, with one-third of the targeted reductions expected to be realized in 2025 [8] - A new EUR 180 million recycling plant is under construction in Torija, Spain, which will enhance the company's capacity to recycle post-consumer scrap [8] - Hydro is accelerating the commercialization of low-carbon and recycled aluminium, collaborating with customers to integrate these materials into their products [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing and highlights Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) as a strong value stock based on its financial metrics and Zacks Rank [1][2][7]. Group 1: Value Investing - Value investing is a preferred strategy for identifying strong stocks, relying on traditional analysis of key valuation metrics to find undervalued stocks [2]. - Zacks has developed a Style Scores system to identify stocks with specific traits, particularly in the "Value" category, where stocks with "A" grades and high Zacks Ranks are considered strong [3]. Group 2: Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Metrics - Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a Value grade of A, indicating strong potential [4]. - KALU's P/E ratio is 15.87, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.36, suggesting it may be undervalued [4]. - The stock's Forward P/E has ranged from 11.50 to 26.64 over the past year, with a median of 14.31 [4]. - KALU's P/S ratio is 0.32, compared to the industry's average of 0.73, further indicating undervaluation [5]. - The P/CF ratio for KALU is 6.18, while the industry average is 19.95, reinforcing the notion of KALU being undervalued [6]. - Over the past 52 weeks, KALU's P/CF has fluctuated between 4.97 and 10.36, with a median of 7.32 [6]. - These financial metrics collectively suggest that KALU is likely undervalued and has a strong earnings outlook, making it an impressive value stock [7].

Group 1: Nomad Foods Limited - Nomad Foods Limited manufactures and distributes frozen foods primarily in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, Sweden, France, and Norway [1] - The company has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and has seen a 6.2% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Nomad Foods has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.36 compared to 21.15 for the S&P, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 2: Yara International ASA - Yara International ASA is the world's leading supplier of mineral fertilizers, particularly strong in nitrogen-based fertilizers [2] - The company carries a Zacks Rank 1 and has experienced a 12% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Yara International has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10.90 compared to 21.15 for the S&P, and also possesses a Value Score of A [3] Group 3: Kaiser Aluminum - Kaiser Aluminum is a leading producer of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products, serving customers in aerospace, high-strength general engineering, and custom automotive and industrial applications [4] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 1 and has seen a 13% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [4] - Kaiser Aluminum has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17.43 compared to 21.15 for the S&P, and possesses a Value Score of A [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three stocks with a buy rank and strong income characteristics, focusing on Kaiser Aluminum as a notable investment opportunity due to its recent earnings estimate increase [1] Company Summary - Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) is a leading producer of semi-fabricated specialty aluminum products, catering to global customers with engineered solutions for aerospace, high-strength general engineering, and custom automotive and industrial applications [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kaiser Aluminum's current year earnings has increased by 13% over the last 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment and potential for growth [1]

【国内电解铝行业动态一览】截至 3 月底，MYSTEEL 调研显示，国内电解铝建成产能约 4551 万吨， 运行产能约 4379 万吨，行业开工率环比提升 0.2%，较去年同期提升 2.9%。上周电解铝产量延续小幅 提升。 截至 4 月 24 日，国内铝锭社会库存 66.4 万吨，周环比减少 2.4 万吨；铝棒库存 18.9 万吨，周环 比减少 3.3 万吨。华东现货升水 0 元/吨，环比下调 50 元/吨。LME 铝库存 42.2 万吨，环比减 1.2 万 吨，Cash/3M 贴水 41.2 美元/吨。 上周沪铝进口亏损有所扩大。2025 年 3 月，中国原铝进口量为 22.2 万吨，同比减少 11.0%，1-3 月累计进口量为 58.4 万吨，同比减少 19.1%。 产业在线数据表明，我国三 大白色家电 4 月份总排产量达 3681 万台，同比增长 16.6%。其中，家用空调 4 月计划排产 2219 万台， 同比增长 22.7%；冰箱排产计划 820 万台，同比增长 14.2%；洗衣机排产计划 642 万台，同比微增 2.0%。 国内政治局会议表态未超预期，叠加美国"对等关税"政策预计反复，短期情绪面或 ...

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with a preference for gold, cement, building materials, and steel for 2Q25 [7]. Core Insights - Demand in the materials sector showed signs of recovery in 1Q25, but the outlook for 2Q25 is uncertain due to tariff concerns. Domestic excavator sales increased by 38% YoY, and orders from cathode producers rose by 20% due to strong demand from electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage [2]. - The report anticipates that metals-related stocks may outperform in 2H25 as further stimulus is expected [1][6]. - The tariff impact is projected to weigh heavily on the materials space, with a forecasted GDP growth reduction of 30 basis points to 4.2% for 2025 due to tariff shocks and domestic demand impacts [2][18]. Summary by Sections Gold - Gold is identified as the top pick within commodities, supported by ongoing central bank buying and rising ETF inflows. Lower Treasury yields are expected to enhance gold's macro backdrop. Preferred stocks include Zhaojin (1818.HK) and Zijin Mining (2899.HK, 601899.SS) [3]. Cement and Steel - Cement supply-side controls were announced in November 2024, leading to a focus on profitability rather than price wars. The report expects a significant increase in gross profit per ton due to lower coal prices and higher cement prices. For steel, a production cut of 30 million tons and an export cut of 15-20 million tons are anticipated in 2025. Preferred stocks include Anhui Conch (0914.HK, 600585.SS), CNBM (3323.HK), and Baosteel (600019.SS) [4]. Copper and Aluminum - In 2H25, copper and aluminum are expected to outperform due to continued demand from grid and EV-related green infrastructure. Additional fiscal stimulus could further support demand. Preferred stocks include Zijin (2899.HK, 601899.SS), CMOC (3993.HK, 603993.SS), and Hongqiao (1378.HK) [5]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the current cumulative US tariffs could have a more significant growth drag than in 2018-19, with expectations of trade talks to lower tariffs to 34% by year-end. The tariff shocks are expected to impact both trade channels and domestic demand [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has met expectations for Q1 2025 performance, with profits expected to further recover, and a "buy" rating has been assigned to the company [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved total operating revenue of 14.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.974 billion yuan, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The sales gross margin was 9.96%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.36 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Conditions - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3,863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the domestic average price of alumina was 3,090 yuan/ton, and by April 24, it had dropped to 2,895 yuan/ton, indicating a downward trend that may support profit recovery for the company [2] Production and Pricing - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, driven by improved electricity supply [3] - The average domestic spot price for aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,455 yuan/ton, a 7.22% increase year-on-year, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.218 billion yuan, 7.306 billion yuan, and 8.214 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [4]