Group 1: Japan's Political and Economic Landscape - Japan is facing a snap election called by Takayichi, which may increase market volatility as she aims to boost the majority for her LDP coalition and pursue additional fiscal spending [2][3] - Finance Minister Kadyyama indicated that any consumption tax cuts to increase fiscal spending would not lead to additional debt, but market skepticism remains [3] - The bond market is exerting pressure on policymakers, with the ultra-long bond yield reaching record highs, indicating a lack of confidence in the government's reassurances [4] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Geopolitical Trends - A significant trade deal between Europe and India has emerged, potentially impacting two billion people and a quarter of global GDP, with India set to reduce tariffs on 97% of EU goods exports [6][7] - European automotive companies are expected to be major beneficiaries of this deal, gaining access to the Indian market previously hindered by high tariffs [7] - Increased defense spending is becoming a global trend, with Europe prioritizing its defense contractors, and companies in Japan and South Korea also benefiting from this shift [8] Group 3: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment in Asia - The South Korean Cosby index has outperformed this year, driven by strong performance from memory companies, although there are concerns about frothy expectations leading to potential sell-offs if earnings do not meet forecasts [9][10] - Upcoming lunar new year celebrations may lead to retail investors pulling back on risk, impacting market dynamics in Asia [10][11]

Core Insights - Project Vault is a strategic initiative by the U.S. government to establish a critical-minerals stockpile with an initial funding of $12 billion, aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals [1][2] - The funding structure includes $1.67 billion from private capital and a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, which is expected to authorize the loan shortly [1][2] - The initiative is designed to protect U.S. tech firms, automakers, and manufacturers from supply shocks related to critical minerals [2] Group 1 - Project Vault aims to create a stockpile of critical minerals to mitigate supply chain risks and reduce dependence on China [2] - The U.S. Export-Import Bank is anticipated to vote on a 15-year loan to support this initiative [2] - American Resources Corp. has entered into a $1.4 billion deal to develop a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain through partnerships with ReElement Technologies and Vulcan Elements [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. is launching a strategic critical-minerals stockpile named Project Vault with $12 billion in initial funding to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths and other metals [1][4] - The initiative combines $1.67 billion in private capital with a $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to procure and store essential minerals for various industries [1][2] - The stockpile will focus on critical minerals like gallium and cobalt, which are vital for products such as smartphones, batteries, and jet engines [3][4] Industry Impact - U.S. rare-earths stocks experienced a surge in premarket trading following the announcement of the stockpile plan, indicating positive market sentiment [2] - The project aims to strengthen supply chains in the automotive, aerospace, and energy sectors, reducing dependency on China, the leading provider of critical minerals [4][5] - Participation from major companies, including General Motors, Boeing, and Google, highlights the broad industry support for the initiative [5][6] Financial Aspects - The Export-Import Bank's board is set to approve a record-setting 15-year loan, which is more than double the size of the previous largest deal executed by the bank [6] - The involvement of commodities trading houses to manage raw material purchases for the stockpile indicates a structured approach to sourcing critical minerals [5]

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]

Market Overview - Wall Street is expected to experience another decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [3] - Spot gold prices have decreased by 3.6% to $4,710, following a nearly 10% drop on Friday when prices fell below $5,000 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are down 4% at $81 [3] Government Shutdown - A partial government shutdown began early Saturday, despite the Senate passing a funding package. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence that the shutdown will end by Tuesday [4] Oil Market - Oil prices have dropped over 5%, marking the largest single-session decline in over six months, following President Trump's comments indicating potential de-escalation in talks with Iran [5] - Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude are both down in the 5% range, retreating from multi-month highs [5][6] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin briefly fell below support but recovered to around $75,000, with over $850 million in bullish bets liquidated in a few hours, totaling nearly $2.5 billion in losses [7][8] - The crypto market experienced forced selling, with $510 million in leveraged positions wiped out, primarily affecting long trades [9]

Investment and Partnerships - Chinese businesses have pledged hundreds of millions of pounds in investments in the U.K. during Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit, leading to significant bilateral business activity [2][3] - Starmer's visit resulted in £2.2 billion ($3 billion) worth of exports and £2.3 billion in market access for British businesses [3] - Pop Mart plans to establish a regional headquarters in London and open 27 new stores across Europe, creating over 150 jobs in the U.K. [8] - Chery Commercial Vehicles intends to set up a regional headquarters in Liverpool, potentially partnering with Jaguar Land Rover [8] - Asymchem is planning a major expansion in the U.K., adding 150 jobs in advanced research and development over the next five years [9] - HiTHIUM has pledged to invest £200 million in the U.K. and create 300 jobs, focusing on energy storage technologies [10] Market Access and E-commerce - The U.K.-China agreement includes promises from Beijing to broaden access for British businesses into the Chinese consumer market [12] - JD.com will assist British brands in selling to Chinese consumers and will launch its online retail platform Joybuy in the U.K. [13] - British companies have reported a deteriorating business environment in China, but a third of respondents plan to increase investments, particularly in operations and partnerships [14][15] Industry-Specific Developments - AstraZeneca announced a $15 billion investment in China to expand local R&D capabilities and increase its workforce [11] - British asset manager Schroders signed a memorandum with CATL to develop battery energy storage systems in Europe [11] - Birmingham Biotech expects around £20 million in sales in China as it scales its operations [16] - Octopus Energy Group plans to form a joint venture with China's PCG Power to trade renewable energy [17]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower opening as investors react to global manufacturing concerns, uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership, and a sell-off in precious metals and cryptocurrencies [1][2] - Major indexes are poised for declines following a weak close on Wall Street last Friday, with E-mini S&P 500 futures down approximately 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures falling roughly 1% [2] Current Performance of Major Market Indexes - The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% to 6,930.03, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 48,892.47, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9% to 23,461.82 [3] - The US500 index fell to 6,871 points, losing 0.99% from the previous session, while the Russell 2000 index declined 2.0% last week [3] Upcoming Market Events - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, Manufacturing and Services PMI readings, ADP employment change, and weekly jobless claims [4] - The ISM manufacturing PMI has remained in contractionary territory since March 2025, heightening focus on these indicators [4] Corporate Earnings - Major tech companies reporting this week include Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Alphabet, Qualcomm, PayPal, and Super Micro Computer, with Palantir Technologies and The Walt Disney Company reporting today [5] - Analysts project moderate revenue growth for Disney, but there are risks of earnings per share slipping [12] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, and Bank of England are expected to set new policy rates, while the Federal Reserve recently left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [6] Major Stock News - President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has introduced uncertainty into monetary policy expectations, impacting precious metals and strengthening the U.S. dollar [7] - Apple reported a record-breaking fiscal Q1 2026 with revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year, driven by iPhone sales and services growth [12] - Tesla shares fell 3.2% despite beating earnings estimates, facing pressure from competition and planning to double AI capital expenditures to $20 billion [12] - The healthcare insurance sector is under pressure due to a proposed minimal increase in Medicare payment rates for 2027, leading to significant declines in shares of UnitedHealth Group, Humana, and CVS Health Corporation [12] - Goldman Sachs saw a surprising 56% surge in 2025, benefiting from its trading desks and exiting consumer banking [12] - Nvidia slipped 2% in premarket trading amid broader tech sector pressure, with other tech companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also experiencing sell-offs [12]

TOKYO, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in about three and a half years in January, a ​private-sector survey showed, as strong customer demand drove an increase ‌in output and new orders. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in ‌January from 50.0 in December, the strongest level since August 2022. The 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction. "Japan's manufacturing industry propelled itself back into growth ...

证券研究报告 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 整车主线周报： 本周商用载货车表现较好，长城发布业绩预告 2 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：回顾2025：2025年，25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出 口34.1万，同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。展望2026： ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Innovation - The "Su Super" football league in Jiangsu has generated significant consumer spending of 38 billion yuan, showcasing the economic impact of local events and cultural initiatives [1] - Jiangsu's foreign trade reached a record high of nearly 6 trillion yuan, reflecting resilience through market structure optimization and the rise of new business models [2] - A "de-involution" movement is underway in various industries, including solar energy and automotive, aimed at curbing unhealthy competition and enhancing resource allocation [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The development of "embodied intelligent robots" is gaining momentum in Jiangsu, with nearly 300 companies forming an innovation alliance to enhance technological capabilities [4] - Jiangsu is focusing on "characteristic advantageous industries," identifying over 200 such industries across 95 counties to promote targeted development and modernization [5] - The rise of One Person Companies (OPC) is being supported through a comprehensive ecosystem that encourages micro-innovation and entrepreneurship [6] Group 3: Service Industry Growth - The revenue growth rate of the productive service industry in Jiangsu reached an average of 11.3%, significantly contributing to the overall service sector growth [7] - A new "dual high collaboration" mechanism is being implemented, linking high-tech zones with universities to foster innovation and address real industry challenges [9] Group 4: Human Capital Investment - The concept of "investing in people" has been incorporated into government reports, emphasizing the transformation of human resources into human capital, with significant funding directed towards social welfare and education [10] Group 5: Scene Innovation - Scene innovation is becoming a key focus in Jiangsu, with 93 projects launched across various sectors, highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in driving technological commercialization [11]