1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. A rebound requires steel mills to cut production or an improvement in demand expectations. Temporarily, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - finished products and short - raw materials arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure. The sustainability of high hot metal production depends on terminal demand, and there are supply - side risks such as increased overseas shipments and potential production cuts [4]. Coke - Although the fundamentals of coke have improved, the weakening of coking coal and the possible issuance of a flat - control document for crude steel production are expected to bring pressure. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices may continue to decline. There is still room for decline in the future. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations and consider going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation has marginally improved after production cuts, the high inventory and the uncertain demand limit the price rebound, but the cost provides support [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese prices are expected to decline steadily. The supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support is insufficient [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production increased by 4.2 tons to 244.4 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.2%, with rebar inventory down by 4.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material transactions decreased by 7.3%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some iron ore varieties declined slightly, and the basis of some contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, while the arrivals at ports decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.8%, and the monthly production of pig iron and crude steel increased significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 0.6%, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased slightly [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a mixed trend, with the 2505 contract rising and the 2509 contract falling. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production increased, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increasing by 2.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The iron - making capacity utilization rate of downstream steel mills increased, and the iron water production reached over 244 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with coking plant inventories decreasing and steel mill inventories increasing slightly [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract falling more significantly. The 5 - 9 spread stabilized [6]. - **Supply**: Domestic coal mines continued to resume production, but the port customs clearance decreased [6]. - **Demand**: Coking production increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal from downstream users increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with upstream mine inventories increasing and port inventories decreasing [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production continued to decrease, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased significantly, and the non - steel demand showed seasonal improvement [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased, and the basis of some regions improved [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production decreased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 15.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production increased, and the building material demand may have reached its peak [7]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased, but the arrivals at ports remained high, and the port inventory increased by 5.0% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].