| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3320 | 3320 | 0 | 193 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3180 | 30 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | 173 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3168 | 3111 | 57 | 152 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3213 | 3156 | 57 | 107 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3127 | 3082 | 45 | 193 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | -10 | 元/旺 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | -90 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-08 原料成本推升，钢价强势向上 玻璃纯碱：宏观情绪转好，期现价格大涨 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面大幅上涨，现货方面，部分厂家存在涨价行为，期现商逐步拿货入场，短期对于价格有 所支撑。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。伴随期现商采购，库存压力有望缓解，市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面，昨日纯碱盘面大幅上涨，现货方面，下游刚需采购有限，期现商和贸易商拿货积极性提升，现货价格 跟随上涨。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限，供给有所下降，伴随需求转弱，库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面。短 期在宏观情绪带动下，纯碱投机性需求提升，后期持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏强 纯碱方面：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 硅锰方面，昨日受黑色系整体上涨的影响，硅锰期货同 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Steel Industry**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. Steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction support prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread for rebar and focus on the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: Iron ore prices are likely to oscillate. Supply remains at a relatively high level, demand recovery is limited, and inventory is accumulating, but the marginal space for inventory accumulation is narrowing. It is recommended to use short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the range from 760 - 810 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Industry**: For coke, after the third - round spot price cut, the basis weakens, and the expected rebound is hard to sustain. It is advisable to take profit on long positions of the 2605 contract and switch to short - selling on rallies, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, the rebound expectation is overdrawn, so take profit on long positions and switch to short - selling on rallies, also using the same arbitrage strategy [7]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: Silicon iron supply - demand contradictions need to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation is priced in, there is insufficient improvement in demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the 5500 - 5700 range [9]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: Silicon manganese is in a state of self - supply - demand imbalance, but the overall situation is relatively flat. Manganese ore prices support the cost. The price is expected to continue to be weak. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost, with short - term trading as the main approach [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices also showed mixed trends [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and plate billet prices decreased slightly, and most steel product profits declined [1]. - **Supply**: Daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased, but the apparent demand for five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost and spot prices of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, while the basis and spreads showed different changes [4]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments and port arrivals decreased slightly, but remained at a high level in the same period of history [4]. - **Demand**: Pig iron and crude steel production decreased, while daily average iron ore port clearance increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, and the third - round spot price cut was implemented. Coking coal futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spot auction price was mixed [7]. - **Supply**: Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The inventory of both increased [7]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production remained stable, and the demand for coke and coking coal was weak [7]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon iron futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in some regions increased [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Production costs decreased, and production profits increased [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon iron production decreased slightly, and the production cut was mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, non - steel demand increased slightly, and export orders were fair but with low price acceptance [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron decreased slightly [9]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The silicon manganese futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: Manganese ore prices were stable, and production costs and profits changed slightly [9]. - **Supply**: Silicon manganese production increased slightly, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia [9]. - **Demand**: Steel - making demand was stable, and steel mills had a strong price - pressing attitude in procurement [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese remained at a high level [9].

玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。12月下旬部分产线 存在冷修，玻璃供给有所收缩。据隆众数据显示：本周浮法玻璃日融有所回落，厂家库存环比增加。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量小幅下降，供应收缩程度仍显不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾尚未缓解，且伴随春节临近， 刚需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格整体承压，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机 需求帶来的扰动。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-26 产销小幅回落，价格保持震荡 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本周 纯碱产量环比减少，库存环比去化。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量继续下降，仍处于同期高位，下游需求维持平稳，库存高位去化，纯碱供需矛盾得到一定 程度的优化。然而考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，且纯碱仍有新增产能投放，制约纯碱价格反弹高 度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-19 玻璃纯碱：宏观氛围偏暖，玻碱小幅反弹 市场分析 昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，整体偏弱运行，以低价刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示：本 周浮法玻璃总库存5855.8万重箱，环比上涨0.57%。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供需矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随淡季 到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货震荡上行，成本支撑发力。现货方面，市场报价弱稳，整体涨跌不一，以刚需采购为主。 据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量72.14万吨，环比减少1.9%；库存149.93万吨，环比增加0.33%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存高位震荡，且 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：钢材消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]