Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) is set to enhance its openness with the implementation of a zero tariff policy for most goods post-closure in 2025, which will significantly lower import costs [1][3] - The establishment of a comprehensive policy system characterized by "zero tariffs, low tax rates, simplified tax systems" is nearly complete, with key policies expected to be introduced within the year [1][3] - The upcoming policies will likely result in a much shorter list of restricted import/export goods compared to other regions in China, potentially reducing the number of taxable items by more than half [1][3] Group 2 - The Hainan FTP aims to become a global hub for cross-regional manufacturing and value-added processing, particularly benefiting ASEAN enterprises through relaxed origin rules [2] - Major investments are being made in sectors like marine wind power and commercial satellite systems, with companies expecting reduced production costs and increased competitiveness post-closure [3] - The tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture sectors are identified as key growth areas, with significant benefits anticipated from the integration of the FTP's system and industry advantages [3] Group 3 - The Hainan FTP is expected to strengthen connections with both domestic and international markets, facilitating foreign investment into China and enabling Chinese companies to expand globally [4] - Companies are positioning Hainan as a critical hub for regional economic influence, with plans for international operations and logistics to enhance global outreach [4] - The FTP is seen as a frontline for China's unilateral opening, particularly towards ASEAN and the Middle East, leveraging its geographical advantages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration of China has announced the nationwide promotion of the "immediate refund" service for outbound travelers, enhancing the shopping experience for foreign tourists and potentially boosting the inbound tourism market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The "immediate refund" policy allows foreign travelers to receive a refund in RMB at the point of purchase after signing an agreement and pre-authorizing a credit card, creating a "shopping-refund-reconsume" cycle [1]. - This policy is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of shopping in China for foreign tourists, especially in conjunction with the "240-hour" visa-free policy and recent RMB exchange rate trends [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Previous trials of the "immediate refund" policy in cities like Shanghai and Beijing have already shown substantial growth in inbound consumption, with the number of travelers, sales of refund-eligible goods, and total refunds increasing by 2.3 times, 1.2 times, and 1.3 times respectively in 2024 [2]. - Analysts predict that if the penetration rate of outbound tax refund travelers reaches 15%, it could result in approximately 21.8 million travelers annually, leading to a potential sales volume of 109 billion RMB in future years [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the "immediate refund" policy, stocks in the duty-free sector have surged, with companies like Zhongbai Group experiencing multiple trading halts due to price increases, and China Duty Free's stock rising over 24% in three trading days [3].

结果早上醒来一看美股插了个大阴棒，这高开低走的力度跟a股不遑多让。 | | 纳斯达克100指数ETF 均价:429.570 最新:416.060 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 443.138 | | | | | | | 4.59% | | 438.276 | | | | | | | 3.44% | | 433.414 | | | | | | | 2.30% | | 428.552 | | | | | | | 1.15% | | 423.690 | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 418.828 | | | | | | | 1.15% | | 413.966 | | | | | | | 2.30% | | 409.104 | | | | | | | 3.44% | | 404.242 | | | | | | | 4.59% | | 513.74 | | | | | | | 513.74 | | 342.49 | | | | | | | 342.49 | | 171.25 | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the year 2024, primarily due to ongoing pressure in the Hainan offshore duty-free sales market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16% year-on-year (yoy), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36% yoy [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, a decrease of 20% yoy, with a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 77% yoy [1]. - The total duty-free shopping amount in Hainan for 2024 was 30.9 billion yuan, down 29% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 5.683 million, down 16% yoy, and an average spending per visitor of 5,444 yuan, down 16% yoy [1]. Segment Analysis - Duty-free product sales in 2024 amounted to 38.665 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with a gross margin of 39.5%, unchanged from the previous year [1]. - Taxable product sales generated revenue of 17.095 billion yuan, down 23% yoy, with a gross margin of 13.45%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points yoy [1]. Subsidiary Performance - Sanya's duty-free stores generated revenue of 20.418 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 367 million yuan, down 86% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.8%, down 7.5 percentage points yoy [2]. - The Shanghai subsidiary achieved revenue of 16.035 billion yuan, down 10% yoy, with a net profit of 513 million yuan, up 100% yoy, and a net profit margin of 3.2%, up 1.8 percentage points yoy [2]. - Haikou International Duty-Free City reported revenue of 5.574 billion yuan, down 18% yoy, with a net loss of 176 million yuan [2]. - Hainan Duty-Free Company generated revenue of 3.554 billion yuan, down 28% yoy, with a net profit of 58 million yuan, down 71% yoy, and a net profit margin of 1.6%, down 2.4 percentage points yoy [2]. Future Outlook - In 2024, the company plans to consolidate its advantages in port channels, having won the operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects, leading to significant growth in domestic duty-free store sales [2]. - The company aims to optimize its city store layout, having won bids for new duty-free store projects in six cities including Shenzhen and Guangzhou [2]. - Expansion of overseas business is planned, with openings at Changi Airport in Singapore, Hong Kong International Airport, and other locations [2]. - The company will explore taxable business development, signing leasing agreements for taxable operations at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport and Harbin Taiping Airport [2]. Market Trends - In January and February 2025, Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 8.41 billion yuan, down 13% yoy, with actual shopping visitors at 1.097 million, down 29% yoy [3]. - The average spending per visitor in January and February was 6,760 yuan and 8,315 yuan, respectively, showing increases of 16% and 25% yoy [3]. - The company plans to deepen its market presence in Hainan and expand its domestic and overseas store layouts, aiming for significant growth in the coming years [3]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.6 billion yuan, 67.1 billion yuan, and 73.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9% each year [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16%, 12%, and 14% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 23, and 20 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance for 2024 aligns with the forecast, with a narrowing decline in Hainan duty-free sales [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of outbound tourism and the implementation of city duty-free store policies, despite current pressures on duty-free consumption [8] - The report anticipates a significant contribution from new city duty-free stores, with potential sales in the tens of billions [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 4.27 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Sales and Market Position - The sales of duty-free goods accounted for 68% of total revenue, while taxable goods accounted for 30% in 2024 [8] - The company’s market share in Hainan increased by nearly 2 percentage points, despite a 29% year-on-year decline in total duty-free sales in the region [8] - The report highlights the potential for growth in city duty-free sales, particularly with new store openings in major cities [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 4.98 billion yuan, 5.76 billion yuan, and 6.69 billion yuan respectively [8] - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are projected to be 26, 22, and 19 times [8] - The report indicates that the current valuation is at the lower end of the historical valuation range of 25-40 times [8]

根据我们收到海南海汽运输集团股份有限公司(以下简称"海汽集团"、 "上市公司")转来的由中国证券监督管理委员会于2022年10月31日下发的 《中国证监会行政许可项目审查一次反馈意见通知书》(222474号)(以下简 称"《一次反馈意见》")相关问题的要求,中天运会计师事务所(特殊普通 合伙）（以下简称"本所或我所"）对问询函就我所涉及到的有关问题，履行 了审慎核查义务,现对《一次反馈意见》核查意见如下: 如无特别说明,本专项核查意见回复中所述的词语或简称与《海南海汽运 输集团股份有限公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易 报告书(草案)(修订稿)》(以下简称"《重组报告书》〈修订稿〉"）中 相同。所定义的词语或简称具有相同的含义。补充披露内容在重组报告书中均 以楷体加粗标明。本专项核查意见回复所涉数据的尾数差异或不符系四舍五入 所致。 中天运会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙) IONTEN CPAS 中天运会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙) JONTEN CPAS 《关于海南海汽运输集团股份有限公司发行股份及 支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易报告书 的审核问询函》之专项核查意见 上海证券交易所: ...