行 业 及 产 业 海外消费服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 06 月 06 日 2025 下半年港股消费服务投资策略——关注 茶饮新股，把握出行链机会 看好 ——海外消费周报（20250530-20250605） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 海外社服：2025 下半年港股消费服务投资策略——关注茶饮新股，把握出行链机 会 1）现制茶饮板块效应凸显，核心比拼供应链。蜜雪和古茗建立了深厚的竞争壁 垒，蜜雪的供应链建立时间最早规模最大，古茗在水果采购和冷链的规模最大，雪 王 IP 提升了营销效率，并有全球扩张的逻辑，古茗作为大众价格带第一的公司冷 链规模最大，门店数量增长确定性最高，两家公司预计 6 月 9 日进港股通。 2）在线旅游国内竞争改善，布局出境和海外。同程旅行业绩兑现度高，利润率预 计逐步改善。携程集团 Trip.com 投入短期影响利润率但是看好长期发展。 3）澳门博彩收入具备韧性，估值处在底部。5 月博彩毛收入 212 亿澳门元，创疫 后新高，同比增长 5%，对比 2019 年同期恢复 82%。1 至 5 月的累计博彩毛收入 同比增长 1.7%。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 ...

Group 1 - Meituan has launched its AI tool "Meituan Jibai" aimed at hotel operators, focusing on efficient customer acquisition, long-term management, and service transformation to enhance guest satisfaction [1][2] - The CEO of Meituan, Wang Xing, emphasizes a proactive strategy in AI development, advocating for leveraging resources to capitalize on disruptive technologies rather than merely defending existing assets [1][3] - The hotel and travel sector is entering an AI era, with Meituan preparing to support the industry's AI ecosystem development and planning to release an AI travel assistant for consumers [3][4] Group 2 - The integration of AI in Meituan's hotel services aims to improve operational efficiency and enhance user experience by providing dynamic business suggestions and personalized customer service [2][4] - Meituan's core local commerce segment, which includes its hotel and travel business, reported a revenue of 64.324 billion yuan in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [3][6] - Meituan has made significant investments in AI and large model companies, indicating a forthcoming surge in AI applications across its various business lines [5][6] Group 3 - The company has invested heavily in AI technologies, with over half of its strategic investments focused on hard tech, including robotics and AI [6][7] - In Q1, Meituan's R&D expenditure reached 5.8 billion yuan, marking a 15% increase year-on-year, and the company is developing multiple AI application assistants for external users [6][7] - The competitive landscape in the travel industry is intensifying, with other players like Tongcheng and Ctrip also launching AI-driven services [3][6]

Group 1 - The hotel accommodation industry in China is experiencing rapid growth and transformation, driven by digitalization and the integration of AI technology [1][2] - In the past year, the demand for cross-scenario accommodation services has surged, with "accommodation + dining" demand increasing by nearly 87%, "accommodation + entertainment" by 99%, and "accommodation + flight" by 36% [2][3] - The introduction of the AI tool "Meituan Jibai" aims to enhance operational efficiency for hotel merchants and is expected to significantly improve the online service rate in the hospitality industry [3] Group 2 - The shift from focusing solely on business growth to emphasizing ecosystem development marks a significant change in Meituan's role in the accommodation sector [2] - The online rate in the hotel and tourism industry is predicted to see exponential growth with the advent of AI, with Meituan's AI customer service achieving a problem-solving rate of 95% [3] - The evolving consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, are driving new demands for convenience and efficiency in accommodation services [2][3]

要闻提示 NEWS REMIND 1.3倍薪资挖人！曝京东"偷袭"飞猪携程去哪儿，转战酒旅平台 2.国内新势力车企毛利率一览：赛力斯第一，小米第二 3.长安、东风合并暂停，前者汽车业务成独立央企 4.王兴兴获新职务！首任杭州市具身智能产业联盟轮值理事长 5.小鹏、华为联合发布"追光全景"抬头显示系统，首搭小鹏G7 6.摩根士丹利：特斯拉具备"军工DNA"，有望成为国防科技巨头 7.高通已做好与苹果"分手"的准备！没有新合同也没关系 8.OpenAI创始人被解雇闹剧被改编成电影：暂命名为《人工智能》 今日头条 HEADLINE NEWS 3倍薪资挖人！曝京东"偷袭"飞猪携程去哪儿，转战酒旅平台 近日，有媒体爆料，京东正加速布局"酒店 + 机票"业务领域，且动作频频。据悉，京东正以3倍薪资从飞 猪、同程、携程等知名在线旅游平台挖掘相关人才。目前，京东酒旅出行业务已在小程序平台发布招聘信 息，涵盖产品经理、后端开发、航空运营、运营等多个关键岗位，为业务的开展积极储备人才力量。 在招聘要求方面，以酒旅业务系统架构师这一岗位为例，招聘要求中特意标注携程、美团等业内知名企业 从业者优先，尤其青睐有某块业务技术架构从0到1 ...

Airbnb CEO：我的师傅是奥巴马，他会给我布置作业，还会教我怎么处关系 图片来源：Aurelien Meunier/Getty Images for Airbnb 为了把Airbnb打造成一家成功的公司，切斯基有时每周要工作100个小时，工作强度非常大。即使是这 样，他也会定期抽出时间，向奥巴马请教经验。 切斯基最近透露道："在2018年的一段时间里，我们基本上每周都会固定进行一小时的电话交流。我白 天工作，晚上跟这位前总统'上夜校'，而且他还会给我布置一些作业，不过这段经历改变了我的人 生。" 最近，切斯基在米歇尔·奥马的播客栏目IMO中露面时表示："我当时真的是毫无顾忌地主动联系他，寻 求建议和指导，而他也愿意与我见面，并给我一些建议。" 他说，奥巴马曾对他讲，不要成为那种像"无人驾驶汽车"一样缺乏主观能动性的领导，而是要立足长远 想问题，认识到关系的重要性，而且要积极实现自己想达到的影响。 《财富》已联系切斯基和奥巴马并请其发表评论。 当总统的徒弟是一种什么样的体验 将Airbnb打造成了一个家喻户晓的品牌后，切斯基却仍不感到满足，甚至也称不上快乐。 切斯基说："虽然我在科技领域非常成功，也赚了很 ...

Core Insights - Meituan's Vice President, Li Jinfeng, announced the company's advancements in AI for the travel industry, indicating a significant shift towards AI integration by 2025 [1] - The company plans to launch the first B-end AI tool in China for the travel sector, along with an AI travel assistant for users in June [1] Company Developments - Meituan is positioning itself as a leader in the travel industry by introducing AI technologies [1] - The upcoming AI tools are expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency in the travel sector [1] Industry Trends - The travel industry is anticipated to enter an AI era by 2025, suggesting a broader trend towards automation and AI-driven solutions [1] - The introduction of AI tools by Meituan may set a precedent for other companies in the travel and hospitality sectors [1]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，计及最新外汇预测后，将同程旅行(21.5,-0.45,-2.05%)（00780）目标价上调 8%，由26港元升至28港元，而盈利预测及其他重要预测则维持不变，续予"增持"评级。大摩预计，今年中国 旅游需求将保持强劲，消费将由购物转向旅游或体验，而同程将在低线城市、交叉销售（cross-selling）上 升、新业务和国际扩张的带动下，继续扩大市场份额 摩根士丹利 同程旅行(00780):升目标价至28港元,评级"增持" ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 关注茶饮新股，把握出行链机会 2025下半年港股消费服务投资策略 证券分析师：贾梦迪 A0230520010002 2025.6.5 主要内容 2 1. 现制茶饮：板块效应凸显，核心比拼供应链 2. 在线旅游：国内竞争改善，布局出境和海外 3. 澳门博彩：收入具备韧性，估值处在底部 1.1 全球现制饮品的市场规模稳步提升 饮料市场包括(i)现制饮品和(ii)预包装饮料市场，现制饮品指在现场制作并直接提供给消费者即时饮用的饮品，包括现制茶饮、现磨咖啡以及 现制酸奶及鲜榨果汁等其他现制饮品。 | 分类 | 定义 | | --- | --- | | 现制茶饮 | 一种将茶混合其他原料，例如乳制品、水果、谷物及小料现场调制的饮品 | | 现磨咖啡 | 一种使用咖啡粉、咖啡萃取浓缩液或其他咖啡制品现场调制的饮品 | | 其他现制饮品 | 使用茶及咖啡以外的基础成分，并在现场制作及销售的饮品，如现制酸奶及鲜榨果汁 | | 资料来源：灼识咨询，申万宏源研究 | | 全球现制饮品行业以终端零售额计的市场规模由2018年的5,989亿美元增长至2023年的7,791亿美元，复合增长率5.4%。预计202 ...

Summary of Booking Holdings (BKNG) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Booking Holdings (formerly Priceline) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Global Presence**: Active in over 220 countries with strong brands like Booking.com and Agoda [4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Growth Opportunities**: - Significant growth potential in Asia, expected to be the largest travel market in the next 5-10 years [7] - Focus on alternative accommodations, which have been growing faster than traditional accommodations [14][15] - New areas of focus include attractions, advertising, rides, and FinTech [8][10] - **Financial Projections**: - Projected revenue growth of at least 8% and EPS growth of 15% [10][12] - EBITDA margins expected to improve due to operational efficiencies and scale [48][49] - **Connected Trip Initiative**: - High single-digit percentage of bookings involve multiple services (e.g., flights and accommodations) [21] - Growth in the Genius loyalty program, with over 50% of bookings coming from higher tiers [41] - **Advertising Revenue**: - Early stages of building advertising income on platforms, with significant growth expected [29][30] - Focus on sponsored listings and partnerships to enhance advertising capabilities [26][28] - **Generative AI Investments**: - Investments in generative AI to improve customer service and operational efficiencies [34][35] - Partnerships with major AI developers to enhance customer engagement and service delivery [39][40] Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Dynamics**: - The U.S. market is experiencing a bifurcation, with high-end travel remaining strong while budget travel faces challenges [51][52] - Global diversification benefits, with 50% of bookings from U.S. customers and 25% from Asia [53] - **Attractions Market**: - The attractions market is seen as economically attractive due to low additional acquisition costs [55][56] - Technology advancements and strategic partnerships are enabling better targeting and service offerings in this space [57][58] - **Capital Structure and Shareholder Returns**: - Focus on organic reinvestments, followed by shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends [59][60] - A 10% growth in dividend payout level this year, indicating a stable financial position [61] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Booking Holdings conference call, highlighting the company's growth strategies, financial outlook, and market dynamics.

2025年6月4日 证券研究报告 | 6月社服行业投资策略： 板块整体平稳，把握强平台与强品牌的结构性机会 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） | 证券分析师：曾光 | 证券分析师：张鲁 | 证券分析师：杨玉莹 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-82150809 | 010-88005377 | 0755-81982942 | | zengguang@guosen.com | zhanglu5@guosen.com. | yangyuying@guosen.co | | .cn | cn | m.cn | | S0980511040003 | S0980521120002 | S0980524070006 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 行情回顾：5月A股社服跑输基准3.6pct，港美股部分出行链龙头财报发布后行情创新高。5月A股社服板块跑输基准3.6pct，A股社服整体表 现震荡；港美股出行链公司结构性亮点突出，其中年初至今同程旅行+21.7%、亚朵+16.4%、华住集团-S+ ...