Group 1 - The A-share entertainment products sector continues to decline, with Jinling Sports dropping over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Gaole Shares, Zhujiang Piano, Kangliyuan, and Shifeng Culture also experienced declines [1]

Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown impressive performance this year, driven by sectors such as the internet and new consumption, with major indices like the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 20% year-to-date [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 12, 2023, the Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by approximately 43% over the past year, while the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index have risen by about 32% and 35%, respectively [3]. - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 630 billion yuan this year, marking a year-on-year growth of over 100% and approaching the historical high of 85% in 2024 [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Tencent Holdings has emerged as the top holding stock for public funds in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift in investment focus [4]. - A total of 550 Hong Kong stocks have been purchased by southbound funds this year, with 50 stocks seeing net purchases exceeding 2.5 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The leading stocks in terms of net purchases include Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Meituan-W, with net purchases of approximately 87.7 billion yuan, 39.7 billion yuan, and 35.2 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - Among the 50 stocks with significant net purchases, sectors such as state-owned banks and biopharmaceuticals are well represented, with 6 and 4 stocks, respectively [6]. Group 4: Stock Performance - 44 out of 50 Hong Kong stocks have achieved price increases this year, with 5 stocks doubling in price, including Innovent Biologics, which has surged by approximately 285% [8]. - Pop Mart, known for its blind box economy, has seen its stock price reach new highs, with a total market capitalization exceeding 360 billion HKD as of June 14 [9][10]. Group 5: Fund Performance - Among the top 20 public funds, all have outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index over the past year, with the threshold for inclusion being a return of 44.19% [13]. - The South China New Economy Fund, managed by Xinyao Xiong, has achieved a net asset value growth rate of 82.78% over the past year, focusing on new consumption and internet leaders [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The company is enhancing its IP strategy by collaborating with Tencent Video to launch new products based on popular domestic animation IPs, reflecting a trend towards cultural confidence and national pride [1][2] - The partnership aims to create a unique cultural identity through the integration of domestic animation and stationery products, appealing to the younger generation [2] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.73 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 23.35 billion yuan in 2023, 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, and increasing to 33.53 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 16.78% in 2023 [3][10] - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 1.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 20.72 in 2023 to 16.39 in 2027 [3][10] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with an asset-liability ratio of 38.48% and a net asset value per share of 9.95 yuan [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in fund issuance, with 37 new funds launched this week, marking a 48% increase from the previous week, the highest in nearly seven weeks [1] - Mixed funds are the primary focus of this week's fundraising, with 18 mixed funds launched, accounting for 48.65% of the total, while 13 stock funds and 6 bond funds were also launched [1] - The increase in fund issuance is attributed to favorable policies and improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in investor risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Index funds are gaining popularity among investors due to their clear style and transparent operation, becoming an important choice for asset allocation [2] - The current A-share index has rebounded to levels seen before the escalation of US-China trade tensions, but further gains require new catalysts to boost market confidence [2] - June is seen as a window period for increased market risk appetite due to the easing of trade tensions and the implementation of domestic macro policies, with a focus on dividend-related sectors and consumer stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The supply side of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market is still in a bottoming phase, with both inventory and capacity remaining weak, but there are signs of marginal recovery on the demand side [1][3][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by weak replenishment and expansion intentions, with inventory growth for Q1 2025 at -1.63% year-on-year and stock growth at -4.46%, both showing declines compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for Q1 2025 is at 2.32, down 0.04 from 2024, marking 12 consecutive quarters of decline since mid-2022 [3]. - Expansionary capital expenditure for Q1 2025 has a year-on-year decline of 20.69%, the first negative value since 2018, indicating weak investment intentions among listed companies [3]. Industry Focus - Key industries to focus on include those with relatively tight supply and good profitability, those that have shown signs of recovery from the bottom, and those still on the left side of the turning point but entering the later stages of clearing [1][10]. - Specific industries identified for potential support to performance include metal products, broiler farming, entertainment products, and gaming, with only the entertainment products sector showing high levels of expansionary capital expenditure [1][70]. Detailed Industry Breakdown Cyclical Sector - Industries with tight supply include those with high capacity utilization and low inventory, indicating potential for profitability improvement [12]. - Industries at the bottom include construction materials, chemicals, and photovoltaic power, which are experiencing supply structure optimization [12][25]. Manufacturing Sector - Tight supply industries include cable components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, and metal products, with low expansionary capital expenditure [26][40]. - Bottomed industries include the new energy chain and military electronics, which are likely to face hard constraints on future production capacity [26][37]. Consumer Sector - Tight supply industries include broiler farming and entertainment products, with the latter showing high expansionary capital expenditure [41][54]. - Bottomed industries include pharmaceuticals and food processing, with signs of marginal improvement in capacity utilization and profitability [41][49]. TMT Sector - Tight supply industries include gaming, with low expansionary capital expenditure, indicating hard constraints on future supply [55][69]. - Industries at the bottom include electronic components and security equipment, with potential for recovery in capacity utilization and profitability [55][63].

轻工制造 GLO 日本试销推进，新型烟草趋势向上 投资要点： 【周观点】5 月 12 日日本 GLO 官网公布新品 HILO 信息，新品预期将于 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县试销限定发售，若日本市场试销良好，产品力进一 步验证，思摩尔 HNB 业务成长空间有望进一步打开；本周中美贸易冲突暂 缓，优质低估出口链、以及前期受外销业务担忧的包装龙头迎来布局窗口； 出口情绪好转带动包装纸企涨价潮，玖龙、山鹰、理文等集体发布提价函。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/20 7/31 10/11 12/22 3/4 5/15 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 华福证券 轻工制 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two industry categories are highlighted: "supply clearance" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion[2] - Industries exhibiting "supply clearance" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services[2] - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports[2] Export Chain Analysis - Key export chain industries with high overseas revenue proportions include other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery[3] - Industries with high revenue exposure to the U.S. face uncertainty until trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products and textiles if tariffs ease[3] High Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yield sectors identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods[4] - Notable increases in dividend yields for transportation and consumer sectors compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods[4] Market Strategy and Outlook - The A-share market shows resilience, with ETF net outflows indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet maintaining a steady upward trend with transaction volumes above 1 trillion[5] - The market is at a turning point, with key factors to monitor including U.S.-China trade talks and domestic economic indicators[5] - A broad fluctuation is expected in the A-share market, with strong support likely at lower levels, suggesting potential for increased positions if support levels are tested[5] Investment Recommendations - Balanced asset allocation is advised to navigate uncertainties, with a focus on technology sectors potentially regaining momentum[6] - Transitioning trading strategies from exceeding expectations to focusing on high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, and animal health[6] - Defensive assets like banks, insurance, and utilities remain viable as core holdings, with attention to sectors with rising dividend yields[6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...