Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: April 9, 2025 1. BR2505 Contract Information - **Price and Volume Changes**: The closing price of BR2505 on April 8 was 11,925, a daily decrease of 630 and a weekly decrease of 1,675. The trading volume on April 8 was 152,229, a daily increase of 148,121. The open interest decreased by 2,702 on the day and 3,600 for the week, reaching 23,877 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratio**: The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 16,740 on April 8, with a weekly decrease of 70. The virtual - to - real ratio dropped to 7.13, a daily and weekly decrease of 1 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (cis - BR) was - 135 on April 8, a daily decrease of 230 and a weekly decrease of 135. The basis (SBR - BR) was 265, a daily decrease of 280 and a weekly decrease of 35. The month - spread (03 - 04) was 130, a daily increase of 82 and a weekly increase of 105, while the month - spread (04 - 05) was - 45, a daily increase of 115 [3]. 2. Market Prices and Margins 2.1 BR Market - **Domestic Market Prices**: In Shandong, the market price was 13,650 on April 8, a daily increase of 750 and a weekly decrease of 50. In Zhejiang Chuanhua, it was 13,500, a daily increase of 850 and a weekly decrease of 100. The ex - factory price of Qilu was 13,700, a daily increase of 700 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. - **International Market Prices**: CFR Northeast Asia was 1,750, a daily increase of 50 and no change for the week. CFR Southeast Asia was 2,000, a daily increase of 40 and no change for the week. FOB China remained at 1,750 [3]. - **Processing and Trade Margins**: The spot processing margin was 179, a daily increase of 342 and a weekly increase of 154. The futures processing margin was 164, a daily increase of 672 and a weekly increase of 239. The import margin was - 1,214, a daily increase of 446 and a weekly decrease of 8. The export margin was 1,981, a daily decrease of 464 and a weekly increase of 8 [3]. 2.2 BD Market - **Domestic Market Prices**: In Shandong, the market price was 11,050 on April 8, a daily increase of 400 and a weekly decrease of 200. In Jiangsu, it was 11,000, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly decrease of 100. The ex - factory price of Yangzi was 11,100, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. - **International Market Price**: CFR China was 11,082, a daily decrease of 21 [3]. - **Processing and Trade Margins**: The carbon - four extraction margin was 3,459, a daily decrease of 255 and a weekly increase of 56. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation margin was 816, a daily increase of 330 and no change for the week. The import margin was - 139, a daily increase of 381. The export margin was - 576, a daily decrease of 329 [3]. 3. Downstream Production Margins - **Synthetic Rubber Production Margins**: The cis - butadiene rubber production margin was 179, a daily increase of 342 and a weekly increase of 154. The styrene - butadiene rubber production margin was 1,075, a daily increase of 863 and a weekly increase of 88 [3]. - **Downstream Product Production Margins**: The ABS production margin was 418, with incomplete weekly data. The SBS (791 - H) production margin was 330, a daily increase of 15 [3]. 4. Price Spreads 4.1 Inter - Product Spreads - The RU - BR spread was 3,340, a daily increase of 315 and a weekly increase of 355. The NR - BR spread was 1,085, a daily increase of 275. The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,000, a daily increase of 1,100 and a weekly increase of 250. The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,450, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly increase of 100 [3]. 4.2 Intra - Product Spreads - The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 250, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100. The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,700, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年04月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏弱运行 01 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 行情研判 ➢ 期货端静态估值：目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为12900-13700元/吨，动态估值区间由于丁二烯基本面中性，预计震荡为主。上方估值而 言，盘面13700-13800元/吨或为基本面上方估值高位。当主力BR2405合约升水山东地区市场价100元/吨左右（单月持仓成本90元/吨附近），盘 面产生持现货抛盘面的无风险套利空间，套保头寸将逐渐使盘面上方空间压力增大。下方估值而言，丁二烯预计从成本端对顺丁价格形成支撑。预计 盘面12900元/吨为下方的理论估值底部区间。顺丁的理论完全成本估算主要基于丁二烯价格*1.02+（辅剂+人工）=11200*1.02+2500≈13900。 实际完全成本来看，据工厂差异，固定费用从1500至2500元/吨不等，因此最低成本约在12900元/吨附近（ ...