Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded. However, the inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly this week. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose 2.5% this week [10]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 5 [17]. - As of November 14, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 2,980 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of November 13, the basis of butadiene rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - As of November 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 73.02%, an increase of 3.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 29,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry** - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [35]. - As of November 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.92%, an increase of 3.9% from last week [35]. - As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 636 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of November 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 30,820 tons, an increase of 1,530 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [45]. - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [48]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 10, the BR主力合约(12) was at 10275, with a daily change of 85 and a weekly change of 70. The holding volume was 83698, down 1988 from the previous day and up 47828 for the week. The trading volume was 114254, up 7936 daily and 22564 weekly. The warrant quantity was 12300, unchanged from the previous day and up 3720 for the week. The long - short ratio was 34.02, down 1 from the previous day and up 13 for the week [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 25, down 85 daily and 70 weekly. The styrene - butadiene basis was 475, down 85 daily and 120 weekly. The 12 - 01 spread was 70, up 5 daily and down 20 weekly. The 01 - 02 spread was - 5, down 5 daily and 5 weekly. The RU - BR spread was 4835, up 30 daily and 165 weekly. The NR - BR spread was 1890, up 45 daily and 135 weekly [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10300, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The Transfar market price was 10200, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 for the week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10200, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 for the week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, unchanged from the previous day and for the week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 1062, up 102 daily and 153 weekly. The import profit was - 1871, up 6 daily and 17 weekly. The export profit was 2494, down 6 daily [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 6900, down 100 from the previous day. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 6900, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The CFR China price was 790, down 10 from the previous day and 60 for the week [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was not available. The carbon four extraction profit was not available. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1824, down 50 from the previous day. The import profit was 345, up 34 daily and 542 weekly. The export profit was - 841, down 244 daily and 1726 weekly. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1175, unchanged from the previous day and down 288 weekly. The ABS production profit was not available. The SBS production profit was 210, unchanged from the previous day and down 285 weekly [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Driven by the recent strength of natural rubber, the low - price transactions have improved while the mainstream supply price has adjusted back. However, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls has increased, and some production enterprises have reserved inventory. The overall inventory level of production enterprises has continued to rise, and the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased. In the short term, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls is expected to further increase, and production and capacity utilization may decline. Considering the possible weakness of the raw material end, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease and the inventory of trading enterprises will increase [8]. - This week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises have mostly returned to normal levels, driving the overall capacity utilization rate to rise slightly. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises have mostly remained stable. With concentrated orders for snow tires and a large number of specifications and models, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises has been stable, and the production schedules of most enterprises are expected to remain stable. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy Suggestion: The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Market Outlook: Production and inventory are expected to change due to plant overhauls and raw material price trends. Tire enterprise production and capacity utilization are expected to remain relatively stable [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed up with a weekly increase of 2.73% [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided other than the title. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 24, the 11 - 12 spread of butadiene rubber was 70 [18]. - Warehouse Receipt: As of October 24, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of October 23, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was reported at 11,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of October 23, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of October 23, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36.13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 65.62%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2 Industry - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization: In September 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 130,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous month. As of October 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.45%, a decrease of 1.37% from last week [34]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: As of October 23, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of October 24, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,170 tons, an increase of 410 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,650 tons, an increase of 750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,520 tons, a decrease of 340 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [44]. - Tire Export Volume: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [48]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for butadiene and synthetic rubber is experiencing downward pressure due to increased supply and weakened demand, influenced by recent economic tensions between the US and China [5] Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 13, butadiene prices in Shandong market are at 8550 (-50) CNY/ton, CIF China price at 1020 (+0) USD/ton, and the price for BR9000 synthetic rubber at 11150 (-50) CNY/ton, with a price spread of -3300 (+250) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In September, China's butadiene production was 440,300 tons, down 3.6% month-on-month, while synthetic rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 60.25 million units, up 3.8% month-on-month, and full-steel tires at 13.14 million units, up 0.8% month-on-month [2] - As of October 10, operating rates in the synthetic rubber industry have declined, with butadiene industry operating rate at 67.4% (+1.1%), high cis-butadiene rubber at 74.7% (+5.9%), semi-steel tire manufacturers at 42.2% (-29.3%), and full-steel tire manufacturers at 41.5% (-25%) [2] Inventory Levels - As of October 9, butadiene port inventory stands at 27,750 tons, with no change, while synthetic rubber factory inventory is at 26,600 tons, also unchanged, and trader inventory at 5,700 tons, remaining the same [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information, Qilu Petrochemical's 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since October 10 for approximately 17 days [4] Analysis - On October 13, the escalation of US-China trade tensions negatively impacted the commodity market, leading to a significant drop in BR prices, with the main contract BR2511 closing at 10,920 CNY/ton, down 2.89% from the previous settlement price. The domestic butadiene market is currently well-supplied, and expectations of incoming shipments are contributing to downward pressure on prices. Although there are anticipated maintenance shutdowns in the synthetic rubber sector, production is expected to recover post-mid-October as previously shut units restart operations [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Key Figures BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On October 10, the closing price of the main contract was 11,220, down 102 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week; the trading volume was 71,527, down 3,340 from the previous day and 12,158 from the previous week; the open interest of the main contract was 28,858, down 2,555 from the previous day and 22,296 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 8,120, up 420 from the previous day and down 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Difference**: The spot - futures basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 130, up 105 from the previous day; the 10 - 11 month spread was 155, up 120 from the previous day; the 11 - 12 month spread was 45, up 5 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 230 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 174, up 102 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,738, down 64 from the previous day and up 1,493 from the previous week; the export profit was 163, up 7 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: On October 10, the Shandong market price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 515 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,750, down 50 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6, down 50 from the previous day and 352 from the previous week; the import profit was 187, down 56 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week; the export profit was - 816, up 48 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,025, up 75 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, up 70 from the previous day and down 55 from the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 13,543, up 2,455 from the previous day and 22,041 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 16,508, up 2,440 from the previous day and 22,216 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,400, down 100 from the previous day and up 130 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 350, up 100 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 09 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The output of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase month - on - month. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,325 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 225 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 31,413, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,801. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,770 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 225 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,400 tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.3%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,650 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 114 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.303 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.806 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 109,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.16 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.15 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber both declined slightly [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, with production resuming and increasing. The cost and supply side lack positive drivers, and some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources will be lowered. - The inventory of production enterprises has increased slightly, while that of trading enterprises has decreased. It is expected that the overall inventory level of enterprises will decline slightly during the National Day holiday as downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods. - Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels last week, with only minor adjustments in overall operation. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday for maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 38,550, a decrease of 1,541. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 2,670 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil was at $70.13 per barrel, an increase of $0.71; WTI crude oil was at $65.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.74. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was $815 per ton, a decrease of $5; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $608 per ton, a decrease of $0.5; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was $1,060 per ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 155,400 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.49%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, an increase of 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, an increase of 0.13 days [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.58%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.72%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Tire enterprises generally maintained their previous operating levels to reserve post - holiday inventory, with only minor adjustments in overall operation [2] 3.6 Key Concerns - No news on this day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China dropped from a high level, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,900 and 12,000 yuan/ton as of September 11, 2025 [7]. - The supply of cis - butadiene rubber was sufficient this week. Although some private production plants stopped for maintenance, the inventory of producers and traders increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually appear, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [7]. - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped from a high level, and the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies was reduced by 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply reduction will be gradually reflected next week. After the price cuts of cis - butadiene rubber and butadiene, the spot price may drive some downstream enterprises to stock up, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to maintain the current level with slight fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between the 10 - and 11 - month contracts of butadiene rubber was 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,970 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 11, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: As of September 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week; the port inventory was 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons from last week [30]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68% from last week [33]. - **Production Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 34,510 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons from last week [40]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China was between 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient, but some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. With the raw material market being generally strong, some traders and downstream buyers have increased their purchases. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, while that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, the supply will decrease slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and sample trading may decline. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited. The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic Shandong market cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated within a narrow range, with the spot price between 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China at 12,100 - 12,200 yuan/ton as of September 4, 2025 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Some private enterprises in Shandong and East China are expected to undergo maintenance. The inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly this week, and that of trading enterprises increased. Next week, some plants are expected to shut down for about 20 days, and the supply will decrease slightly. The overall capacity utilization rate will increase next week, but the increase may be limited [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 yuan [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between butadiene rubber contracts 10 - 11 was 5 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,770 tons, an increase of 280 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 4, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of September 4, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.38 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of September 5, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.45%, an increase of 0.54% from last week; the butadiene port inventory was 30,950 tons, an increase of 6,950 tons from last week [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from last month. As of September 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.16%, an increase of 0.31% from last week [35]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Production Profit**: As of September 4, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 462 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 5, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,910 tons, an increase of 190 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 24,650 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 7,260 tons, an increase of 640 tons from last week [42]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Tire开工率**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a decrease of 4.05 percentage points month - on - month and 12.98 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points month - on - month and 1.12 percentage points year - on - year [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, an increase of 8.87% month - on - month and 11.48% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative tire export volume was 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative increase of 7.18% year - on - year [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and CNPC's mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has increased. Due to the influence of the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises has led to slow terminal sales. Next week, the production capacity of some shut - down plants will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, while the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. Next week, due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply may increase significantly next week, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.35% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 22, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 20 [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 21, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 21, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of August 21, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory of Butadiene**: As of August 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.11% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from last week [31]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.15%, an increase of 0.95% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 21, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of August 22, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,610 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [48]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report