Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - This week, most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - In the near future, the supply of butadiene rubber will remain high. The butadiene rubber market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of manufacturers have improved. However, there is still some inventory waiting to be picked up, and the overall inventory level has changed little. Due to the continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials, the supply price of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. However, due to the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of manufacturers and traders may increase in the short term [8]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - Market review: Most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply will remain high. Raw material prices will boost sales, but inventory may increase due to downstream resistance to high prices. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 4.37% [12]. - As of January 9, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 50 [18]. - As of January 9, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 4,530 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of January 8, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - As of January 8, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of January 8, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 540.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - As of January 9, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.7% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry Middle - Stream** - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [35]. - As of January 8, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 2.35% from last week [35]. - As of January 8, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of January 9, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,120 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [45]. - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [48]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of December 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8600 (+200) CNY/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 965 (+0) USD/ton; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) at Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 (+150) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -3250 (+230) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis difference of -150 (+185) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In November, China's butadiene production was 483,600 tons, up 5.8% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 5.3% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.31 million units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 13.01 million units, down 5.5% month-on-month and up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - As of December 25, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.6%, up 0.1% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate at 76.8%, up 0.9% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 70.4%, up 0.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate at 61.7%, down 3% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of December 24, butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory was 27,600 tons, up 1,250 tons, a 4.5% increase; trader inventory was 5,690 tons, down 720 tons, an 11.2% decrease [3] Market Analysis - On December 29, the market sentiment for commodities remains strong, with BR prices rising; the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2602 closed at 11,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The domestic supply of butadiene is relatively high, and with a significant amount of imported cargo, port inventories are operating at high levels, indicating a generally ample supply. However, the demand for butadiene remains strong, and it is expected to fluctuate. The supply side shows that only the Dushanzi and Maoming styrene-butadiene rubber facilities continue to be offline, while other facilities are operating at high levels. Demand is expected to decrease due to maintenance schedules among tire manufacturers during the New Year holiday. Overall, the cost side is expected to fluctuate, with high supply levels and limited fundamental support for BR, but the market sentiment remains strong, leading to wide fluctuations in BR prices [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it enters a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of overall fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened, leading to a correction. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculation, it enters a volatile pattern in the short term [4][5] - **Butadiene**: In the short term, the relatively low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, and the trading situation improves. Overall, butadiene rebounds in the short term, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - **Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber this cycle is 30,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 7.89%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.26%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber plants [4] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,300 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to move up slightly. The valuation logic has switched from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [4] 3.1.2 Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly. Currently, the shipment rhythm of each enterprise is slow, the finished product inventory continues to rise, and under the pressure of production and sales, enterprises continue to control production flexibly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will continue to operate weakly next cycle [4] - **Substitute Demand**: Currently, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitute demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This cycle (from December 12 to December 18, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 112,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 112,600 tons, a slight increase compared with this cycle [7] - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] 3.2.2 Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain at a high level, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant overhauls in December, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with limited incremental demand [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene, with little change [9] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (from December 11 to December 17, 2025), the domestic butadiene inventory has fluctuated slightly, and the total sample inventory has increased by 0.49% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory has increased by 0.73% compared with last week, and the sample port inventory has increased by 0.28% compared with last week [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded. However, the inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly this week. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose 2.5% this week [10]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 5 [17]. - As of November 14, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 2,980 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of November 13, the basis of butadiene rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - As of November 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 73.02%, an increase of 3.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 29,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry** - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [35]. - As of November 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.92%, an increase of 3.9% from last week [35]. - As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 636 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of November 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 30,820 tons, an increase of 1,530 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [45]. - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [48]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 10, the BR主力合约(12) was at 10275, with a daily change of 85 and a weekly change of 70. The holding volume was 83698, down 1988 from the previous day and up 47828 for the week. The trading volume was 114254, up 7936 daily and 22564 weekly. The warrant quantity was 12300, unchanged from the previous day and up 3720 for the week. The long - short ratio was 34.02, down 1 from the previous day and up 13 for the week [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 25, down 85 daily and 70 weekly. The styrene - butadiene basis was 475, down 85 daily and 120 weekly. The 12 - 01 spread was 70, up 5 daily and down 20 weekly. The 01 - 02 spread was - 5, down 5 daily and 5 weekly. The RU - BR spread was 4835, up 30 daily and 165 weekly. The NR - BR spread was 1890, up 45 daily and 135 weekly [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10300, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The Transfar market price was 10200, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 for the week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10200, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 for the week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, unchanged from the previous day and for the week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 1062, up 102 daily and 153 weekly. The import profit was - 1871, up 6 daily and 17 weekly. The export profit was 2494, down 6 daily [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 6900, down 100 from the previous day. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 6900, unchanged from the previous day and for the week. The CFR China price was 790, down 10 from the previous day and 60 for the week [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was not available. The carbon four extraction profit was not available. The butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 1824, down 50 from the previous day. The import profit was 345, up 34 daily and 542 weekly. The export profit was - 841, down 244 daily and 1726 weekly. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1175, unchanged from the previous day and down 288 weekly. The ABS production profit was not available. The SBS production profit was 210, unchanged from the previous day and down 285 weekly [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Driven by the recent strength of natural rubber, the low - price transactions have improved while the mainstream supply price has adjusted back. However, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls has increased, and some production enterprises have reserved inventory. The overall inventory level of production enterprises has continued to rise, and the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased. In the short term, the number of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant overhauls is expected to further increase, and production and capacity utilization may decline. Considering the possible weakness of the raw material end, it is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will decrease and the inventory of trading enterprises will increase [8]. - This week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises have mostly returned to normal levels, driving the overall capacity utilization rate to rise slightly. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises have mostly remained stable. With concentrated orders for snow tires and a large number of specifications and models, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is expected to remain high. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises has been stable, and the production schedules of most enterprises are expected to remain stable. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy Suggestion: The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 in the short - term [7]. - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,750 to 11,350 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales remained stable, while the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina increased by 200 yuan/ton in total [8]. - Market Outlook: Production and inventory are expected to change due to plant overhauls and raw material price trends. Tire enterprise production and capacity utilization are expected to remain relatively stable [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed up with a weekly increase of 2.73% [12]. - Position Analysis: No specific content provided other than the title. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of October 24, the 11 - 12 spread of butadiene rubber was 70 [18]. - Warehouse Receipt: As of October 24, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 3,050 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price: As of October 23, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was reported at 11,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of October 23, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of October 23, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36.13 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of October 24, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 65.62%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2 Industry - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization: In September 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 130,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous month. As of October 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.45%, a decrease of 1.37% from last week [34]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit: As of October 23, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was - 204 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory: As of October 24, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,170 tons, an increase of 410 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 28,650 tons, an increase of 750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,520 tons, a decrease of 340 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [44]. - Tire Export Volume: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [48]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for butadiene and synthetic rubber is experiencing downward pressure due to increased supply and weakened demand, influenced by recent economic tensions between the US and China [5] Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of October 13, butadiene prices in Shandong market are at 8550 (-50) CNY/ton, CIF China price at 1020 (+0) USD/ton, and the price for BR9000 synthetic rubber at 11150 (-50) CNY/ton, with a price spread of -3300 (+250) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In September, China's butadiene production was 440,300 tons, down 3.6% month-on-month, while synthetic rubber production was 130,300 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month. The production of semi-steel tires was 60.25 million units, up 3.8% month-on-month, and full-steel tires at 13.14 million units, up 0.8% month-on-month [2] - As of October 10, operating rates in the synthetic rubber industry have declined, with butadiene industry operating rate at 67.4% (+1.1%), high cis-butadiene rubber at 74.7% (+5.9%), semi-steel tire manufacturers at 42.2% (-29.3%), and full-steel tire manufacturers at 41.5% (-25%) [2] Inventory Levels - As of October 9, butadiene port inventory stands at 27,750 tons, with no change, while synthetic rubber factory inventory is at 26,600 tons, also unchanged, and trader inventory at 5,700 tons, remaining the same [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information, Qilu Petrochemical's 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since October 10 for approximately 17 days [4] Analysis - On October 13, the escalation of US-China trade tensions negatively impacted the commodity market, leading to a significant drop in BR prices, with the main contract BR2511 closing at 10,920 CNY/ton, down 2.89% from the previous settlement price. The domestic butadiene market is currently well-supplied, and expectations of incoming shipments are contributing to downward pressure on prices. Although there are anticipated maintenance shutdowns in the synthetic rubber sector, production is expected to recover post-mid-October as previously shut units restart operations [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Key Figures BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On October 10, the closing price of the main contract was 11,220, down 102 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week; the trading volume was 71,527, down 3,340 from the previous day and 12,158 from the previous week; the open interest of the main contract was 28,858, down 2,555 from the previous day and 22,296 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 8,120, up 420 from the previous day and down 1,130 from the previous week [3]. - **Price Difference**: The spot - futures basis of cis - butadiene rubber was 130, up 105 from the previous day; the 10 - 11 month spread was 155, up 120 from the previous day; the 11 - 12 month spread was 45, up 5 from the previous day [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 230 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 174, up 102 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,738, down 64 from the previous day and up 1,493 from the previous week; the export profit was 163, up 7 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: On October 10, the Shandong market price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 515 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,750, down 50 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,800, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6, down 50 from the previous day and 352 from the previous week; the import profit was 187, down 56 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week; the export profit was - 816, up 48 from the previous day [3]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The cis - butadiene production profit was 44, down 3 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,025, up 75 from the previous day and down 38 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 930, up 70 from the previous day and down 55 from the previous week [3]. Variety Spreads - **Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 13,543, up 2,455 from the previous day and 22,041 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 16,508, up 2,440 from the previous day and 22,216 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,400, down 100 from the previous day and up 130 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 350, up 100 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day [3].