Core Insights - Bullish Europe has become the first crypto exchange to offer Societe Generale – FORGE's stablecoin, USD CoinVertible (USDCV), expanding access to regulated crypto assets [1][2] - The USDCV token is a fully compliant USD-pegged stablecoin backed 1:1 with cash or high-quality collateral, targeting institutional, corporate, and retail investors [3][5] - The partnership with Societe Generale positions Bullish as a leading venue for institutional-grade liquidity and compliant digital asset trading services [5][6] Company Developments - Bullish Europe has formed a strategic partnership with Societe Generale – FORGE, making it the first exchange to offer USDCV [2][5] - Marco Bodewein, CEO of Bullish Europe, emphasized the company's commitment to increasing the availability of regulated stablecoins for institutional investors [4][5] - BNY, a UK-based financial services firm, has been selected as the custodian for the stablecoins [6] Industry Context - The USDCV stablecoin was launched in June 2025, leveraging the growth of the stablecoin market and utilizing blockchain platforms Ethereum and Solana [5] - The positive sentiment in the stablecoin market is influenced by improved regulatory frameworks, such as GENIUS and Clarity Acts in the US [6] - Other market players are also exploring the use of fiat-pegged digital assets to reduce costs [6]

Core Insights - Stifel Financial Corp. is expanding its Venture Banking team by hiring senior bankers from Silicon Valley Bank, enhancing its expertise in the life sciences and healthcare sectors [1][2] - The new team members have extensive backgrounds in venture banking, corporate finance, and strategic advisory, collectively supporting hundreds of early- and growth-stage companies [2] - Stifel Bank has seen significant growth in its Venture & Fund Banking division, with over 100 bankers, more than $10 billion in loan commitments, and a doubling of venture client deposits in the past year [3] Company Strategy - The addition of the new team is part of Stifel's strategy to strengthen its capabilities in healthcare and life sciences, providing more resources to founders and investors [4] - The life sciences and healthcare sectors are experiencing transformative changes driven by AI, positioning Stifel to offer unique solutions for scaling companies [4] Recent Achievements - Stifel has acted as joint bookrunner on four biopharma financings since early September, raising a total of $1.1 billion, including the first biopharma IPO in seven months [4]

Core Insights - Fold Holdings, Inc. has partnered with Stripe to launch the Fold Bitcoin Credit Card™, which allows users to earn bitcoin through everyday spending [1][3] - The card offers up to 3.5% back on purchases, with an unlimited 2% back instantly and additional rewards for using the Fold Checking Account [2][4] - Fold has processed over $3.1 billion in transaction volume and distributed more than $83 million in bitcoin rewards, indicating strong market demand for bitcoin financial services [4][5] Company Overview - Fold is the first publicly traded bitcoin financial services company, focusing on making bitcoin accessible for individuals and businesses [5] - The company holds nearly 1,500 BTC in its treasury and offers various products, including the Fold App, Fold Credit Card™, Fold Bitcoin Gift Card™, and Fold Debit Card™ [5] - The integration with Stripe and the use of Visa's network enhances Fold's ability to deliver its products at scale, reflecting a growing trend in digital asset integration [3][4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 125 basis points since September of last year, currently at 4.25% to 4% [1] - The neutral rate is estimated to be around 3%, indicating that there is still room for further rate cuts [1][5] - The current restrictive rate environment is negatively impacting economic growth, particularly in sectors like housing and construction [2][3] Group 2 - Job growth is slowing, which is prompting the Fed to initiate an easing cycle despite higher inflation [3][5] - The next Fed chair, expected to take office in May, is likely to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering rates to the neutral level of 3% [6] - Historically, the Fed has lowered rates by 100 basis points or more in 8 out of the last 14 instances, often leading to subsequent increases in long-term rates [6] Group 3 - The average mortgage rate in the U.S. is currently 6.4%, while existing mortgages average 4.1%, creating a significant gap that discourages homeowners from moving [8][9] - This disparity in mortgage rates is contributing to a slowdown in housing and construction activity, placing additional pressure on the Fed to adjust rates [9]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank predicts that gold and Bitcoin may develop alongside each other in the coming years, with both potentially appearing on central bank balance sheets by 2030 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Bitcoin recently fell below $113,000, while gold reached a historic high of $3,703 per ounce, highlighting the short-term divergence between high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies and traditional safe-haven assets [1]. - The demand for gold is driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and its status as a stable store of value [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Deutsche Bank's report emphasizes that 2025 will be an excellent year for both gold and Bitcoin [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 95% expecting a rise in global central bank reserves [3]. Group 3: Institutional Adoption - Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin's overall performance remains resilient, with its volatility reaching historical lows, indicating increasing acceptance among institutional investors [3]. - Over 180 companies have incorporated cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets, with MicroStrategy being a notable example, having accumulated over $70 billion in Bitcoin [3]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The report raises questions about the future structure of central bank reserves as the dollar's share of global reserves is projected to decline from 60% in 2000 to 43% in 2024 [4]. - Deutsche Bank analysts believe that prudent allocation of Bitcoin could complement traditional assets, despite the ongoing high demand for gold [4].

Core Insights - The current AI boom exhibits characteristics of historical market bubbles, including soaring valuations and euphoric investor sentiment [2][3] - The combination of genuine technological promise, abundant liquidity, and human psychology is driving extreme valuations in both startups and established firms [3][4] - Historical patterns indicate that unsustainable assumptions about growth can lead to significant financial losses and potential misconduct [5][6] Conditions That Breed Euphoria - Elevated valuations, abundant credit, and compelling narratives of progress are the three main elements fueling current market euphoria [18][20][22] - The Shiller CAPE ratio has surged into the high-30s, indicating inflated valuations similar to past bubbles [16][17] - Liquidity, illustrated by rising margin debt, has reached unprecedented levels, further amplifying speculation [20] Signals Visible in Real Time - Retail investor surges and high IPO issuance are common markers of market mania, with over 1,000 listings in 2021 [25][26] - Price patterns, such as parabolic moves in stock prices, signal unsustainable growth, as seen in AI stocks [27] - Liquidity measures, including a nearly 25% year-on-year expansion of the U.S. M2 money supply in 2020, indicate dependence on easy credit [28] Historical Context - Historical examples of market bubbles, such as the Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, and Dot-com Boom, illustrate the cyclical nature of investor euphoria and subsequent crashes [36][38][50] - Each bubble was characterized by a blend of innovation, speculation, and cultural narratives that ultimately led to significant market corrections [64] Behavioral Dynamics - Psychological forces such as herding, overconfidence, and narrative bias contribute to the persistence of market euphoria [35] - Investors often ignore historical lessons, believing that "this time is different," which exacerbates risk-taking behavior [24]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on Emerging Markets (EM) and the US Dollar (USD) positioning, with a particular emphasis on local markets and sovereign credit strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Sentiment on USD**: Investor views on the USD have become more two-way, reflecting a growing belief that the US economy is gaining momentum, leading to mixed positioning on the USD [1][11][25]. 2. **Bullish Outlook for EM Local Markets**: Despite the mixed sentiment on the USD, the bullish outlook for EM local markets remains intact, supported by stable fundamentals and a favorable risk backdrop [1][11][27]. 3. **Attractive Bond Opportunities**: The report highlights 10-year and BB bonds as particularly attractive, suggesting rolling EM CDX hedges while maintaining a lower spread beta versus the index [3][57]. 4. **Chile's Pre-Election Sentiment**: Investor sentiment ahead of Chile's upcoming election is constructive, with expectations that long-end CAM/SOFR spreads will widen regardless of the election outcome [4][58]. 5. **Remittance Trends in LatAm**: Current high levels of remittances into Latin America are expected to decline due to tightening US immigration policies and a weakening US labor market by 2026, impacting sovereign credit in countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic [5][69]. 6. **US Economic Recovery Indicators**: Factors supporting the view of a US economic recovery include improved financial conditions, payroll revisions, and resilient retail sales, with real GDP growth tracking at 2.2% [26][25]. 7. **Fed Policy Implications**: The Federal Reserve's stance is crucial; a dovish approach could lead to further USD weakness, which has been a key driver for EM local market performance [27][36]. 8. **Sovereign Credit Strategy Adjustments**: Recommendations include turning neutral on the Dominican Republic, selling Panama bonds, and preferring Nigeria over Kenya due to fiscal risks [56][43]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technical Positioning**: The improved technical position in EM markets supports a constructive outlook, with fundamentals remaining stable [11][27]. 2. **Investor Caution**: Despite the favorable backdrop, many investors remain cautious about valuations, indicating a potential for further market adjustments [3][57]. 3. **Emerging Market Flows**: Moderate foreign buying of EM local currency bonds continues, with cumulative flows showing a positive trend [31][34]. 4. **CDS and Bond Valuations**: CDS spreads are generally in line with bonds, with the longer end of the curve offering better value, suggesting that investors have been overly cautious [41][68]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and outlook of the EM market and USD positioning.

22 September 2025 | 9:44PM HKT Economics Research China: PBOC Affirms Data-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Bottom line: PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng signaled a data-dependent approach despite the Fed's September rate cut, during a joint press conference with major financial regulators. While the line-up of speakers sparked speculation of imminent easing similar to last September, Governor Pan clarified that short-term policy adjustments were not on the agenda of this meeting. His emphasis on balancing fina ...

Group 1 - A friend is considering booking their first trip and is exploring options for credit cards to purchase flights [1] - They are contemplating buying Air Canada Giftcards at a 10% discount or obtaining a credit card with perks [1] - The intention is not to make frequent trips, but to save money on this occasion [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ended oversight requirements for settlements with Apple and U.S. Bank, which were established under the Biden administration [1] - This decision was made according to court filings dated earlier this month, indicating a significant regulatory shift [1]