以下文章来源于玉渊谭天 ，作者谭主 玉渊谭天 . 简单逻辑看复杂世界 2025.06. 25 本文字数：4179，阅读时长大约7分钟 来源 | 玉渊谭天 封面图来源 | 玉渊谭天 当地时间6月17日，美国参议院以68票赞成、30票反对的结果通过 《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创 新法案》 ，制定了与美元挂钩的稳定币监管规则。 当法案以压倒性优势通过时，共和党参议员比尔·哈格蒂振臂宣称："美国正迈向加密货币之都！" 2500亿美元市场规模的稳定币进入了美国国家法律框架的视野，而华尔街的交易终端上，美债收益 率曲线微微颤动。 当稳定币正式登上美国金融的舞台，一场金融实验，也就此拉开帷幕。 01 稳定币，怎么"稳"？ 今年3月，特朗普的加密货币项目"世界自由金融"（World Liberty Financial）公司推出了一种与 美元 挂钩的代币，名为USD1。 和金融市场上的其他加密货币不同，像USD1这类加密货币有法定货币和现实资产作为支撑。这就意 味着，与比特币相比，它的币值波动更稳定，所以便被称为"稳定币"。 事实上，稳定币的出现并非偶然，而是加密货币发展演化的结果。 比特币的诞生背景与2008年金融危机密切相 ...

Group 1 - Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management sold approximately 1.5 million shares of Circle stock, realizing over $333 million in cash [1][3] - The sale is viewed as a normal profit-taking operation after a significant increase in Circle's stock price, which rose nearly 750% since its listing [1][3] - ARK remains the eighth largest shareholder of Circle despite the recent sell-off [3] Group 2 - Analysts express skepticism about the long-term viability of stablecoins as a payment method in the U.S., citing the convenience and rewards of existing card-based systems [5] - Circle's stock price surge has led to a high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio nearing 180, significantly above the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio of about 22 [5][6] - Concerns are raised about Circle's low free float of 25%, which could lead to increased stock price volatility and downward pressure if market sentiment shifts [6]

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $250 billion, accounting for 7.48% of the $3.35 trillion cryptocurrency market, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 80% over the past five years, establishing a duopoly between USDT and USDC, which together hold 84% of the market share [1][17][29] - Circle, as the issuer of USDC, is set to go public on June 5, 2025, on the NYSE, with its stock price increasing over 675% within ten days of listing. Its business model primarily relies on interest income from reserve assets, which constitutes over 99% of its total revenue [1][4][31] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. provides a regulatory framework for the stablecoin market, focusing on issuer qualifications, reserve requirements, compliance, and consumer protection, aiming to foster innovation while maintaining financial stability [1][11][12] Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with USDT holding 60% and USDC holding 24% of the market share. USDC is backed by U.S. Treasury bonds and a 1:1 reserve of U.S. dollars, emphasizing compliance and transparency [1][17][29] - Circle's partnership with Coinbase is strategic, with Circle projected to pay Coinbase $900 million in distribution fees in 2024, representing 54% of its total revenue. This collaboration enhances USDC's integration into Coinbase's ecosystem, increasing its share of USDC from 5% in 2022 to 23% in Q1 2025 [2][20][25] Coinbase's Business Performance - Coinbase maintains a market share of 6%-7% in the cryptocurrency exchange sector, with a highly compliant business model that facilitated its status as the first publicly listed digital asset exchange in the U.S. [3][35] - In 2024, Coinbase's trading commission revenue is expected to reach $3.986 billion, a 262% year-over-year increase, while subscription and service revenue is projected at $2.307 billion, a 164% increase. Retail customers contribute over 90% of trading revenue, with stablecoin revenue accounting for 15% of total income [3][4][35] Financial Projections for Circle - The stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, with a neutral assumption of a 50% CAGR, estimating a market size of approximately $1.1 trillion by 2028 and $2.5 trillion by 2030 [4][26][29] - Circle's revenue is closely tied to the market capitalization of USDC and Federal Reserve interest rates, with total revenue expected to reach $1.676 billion in 2024 and $2.58 billion in 2025 [4][28] Expanding Use Cases for Stablecoins - The application of stablecoins is rapidly expanding beyond cryptocurrency trading to include cross-border payments, foreign exchange savings, and decentralized finance (DeFi) [5][29] - For instance, USDC offers an annualized interest rate of 3.68% on the Ethereum-based Compound lending platform, showcasing its advantages in the DeFi space compared to other assets [5][32]

Group 1 - The official announcement states that basic pensions do not require individual income tax payments, differentiating them from personal pensions which have a contribution cap of 12,000 yuan per year and offer tax benefits [3][2]. Group 2 - A significant issue has arisen regarding the recall of Romoss power banks, with multiple courier companies, including SF Express, refusing to accept these items due to safety risks associated with battery products [5][7]. - SF Express has stopped accepting various battery-related items, including mobile power banks, to mitigate self-ignition risks, which has led other companies like Yunda and Zhongtong to follow suit [7][8]. - Romoss is currently negotiating with courier companies for a unified recall plan, but as of the latest updates, no specific solutions have been announced [7]. Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.24 points, marking a 1.19% increase, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 1.43% [10]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surged by 3.31%, indicating a strong performance among Chinese concept stocks, with notable gains from companies like Xiaoma Zhixing and New Oriental [10]. Group 4 - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 6.04% to $64.37 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures falling by 6.17% to $66.17 per barrel, marking the largest single-day drop since March [12]. - Gold prices also faced pressure, with COMEX gold futures down by 1.80%, settling at $3333.9 per ounce [13]. - The airline sector benefited from falling oil prices, as indicated by a 2.4% increase in the S&P 1500 Airline Index, while defense stocks faced declines [14].

*纳指100指数收盘创历史新高 *鲍威尔重申政策观望立场 *美油、布油均下跌超6% 当地时间6月24日，美股延续涨势，主要股指连续第二日显著走高。中东地区暂时停火缓解了市场对地 缘风险的担忧，同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会中重申政策需视经济数据而定，强化了联储短期 内不会仓促行动的立场。科技股领涨大盘，博通股价创下历史新高，带动纳斯达克100指数收盘刷新纪 录。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨507.24点，报43089.02点，涨幅1.19%；标普500指数上涨67.01点， 报6092.18点，涨幅1.11%；纳斯达克综合指数涨1.43%，收于19912.53点。纳斯达克100指数创下收盘历 史新高，标普500指数也逼近年内高点。 市场情绪受到以色列与伊朗达成短暂停火协议提振。尽管随后双方仍有零星交火，但投资者仍视协议为 风险缓和的信号。AXS Investments首席执行官格雷格·巴萨克（Greg Bassuk）表示，"停火确实为市场情 绪带来支撑，虽然债市和油市对此反应更为明显。" 美联储主席鲍威尔出席众议院金融服务委员会听证会时表示，美联储"处于良好位置，可以等待更多信 息，再考虑调整政策立 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：银行可以向加密货币行业提供银行服务并开展相关业务，前提是确保金融体系的安 全与稳健。 ...

Core Insights - Tether's gold-backed stablecoin XAUT has surpassed a market capitalization of $820 million, supported by over 246,000 ounces of physical gold, indicating a rapid acceleration in the trend of gold tokenization [1][8] - Despite the growth in market cap, on-chain adoption remains low, with only about 8,000 addresses holding XAUT, and Tether and Binance controlling approximately 60% of the supply [1][6] - The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem faces challenges and opportunities in promoting the widespread adoption of gold assets, with platforms like XBIT aiming to enhance liquidity and user engagement [1][5] Market Dynamics - The rise of XAUT is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical instability, high global inflation, negative real yields, and declining trust in fiat currencies, which have collectively increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][8] - XAUT's liquidity on major DeFi platforms is gradually improving but has not yet reached a threshold for mass adoption, with Uniswap V3's active liquidity pool for XAUT at approximately $2.2 million and Curve's XAUT/PAXG pool at around $1.1 million [3][8] Institutional Interest - U.S. institutions are actively seeking gold-backed digital assets as part of diversified investment portfolios, with the launch of XAUT further stimulating this demand [4][5] - Hyperliquid has integrated XAUT on its platform, marking it as the first tradable gold token asset in its spot market, which is seen as a significant step towards mainstreaming gold tokens [4][5] Technological Integration - The integration of LayerZero's LZCompose functionality allows seamless interaction between HyperEVM and HyperCore, enabling users to trade, lend, and bridge cross-chain assets around the clock [5] - DeFi protocols like Fluid and Aave are beginning to incorporate XAUT, which is expected to enhance liquidity and provide lending functionalities, potentially attracting long-term investors [5][8] Future Outlook - The uneven distribution of XAUT holdings, with a significant concentration among a few large holders, reflects the limitations of the early adoption phase [6][8] - As more platforms join the ecosystem and provide liquidity incentives, user participation is expected to increase, with U.S. markets responding positively to gold tokens [6][8] - The ongoing economic uncertainty and potential further declines in real yields may lead to explosive growth for assets like XAUT, as they become more mainstream [8]

Group 1 - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a warning about the risks associated with stablecoins, urging central banks to accelerate the digitization of their currencies [1][4] - Stablecoins are seen as unreliable forms of currency, posing risks to financial stability and monetary sovereignty in the absence of regulation [1][4] - The warning comes shortly after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, impacting market sentiment and leading to a 7% drop in the stock prices of major stablecoin issuers like Circle [1][4] Group 2 - BIS identified multiple systemic risks related to stablecoins, including potential erosion of monetary sovereignty, transparency issues, and risks of capital flight from emerging markets [4] - BIS's economic advisor, Hyun Song Shin, compared stablecoins to private banknotes from the 19th century, highlighting their lack of traditional settlement functions provided by central bank currencies [4] - Concerns were raised about the control of stablecoins, with Tether holding over half of the market share but exiting the EU due to new licensing requirements [4] Group 3 - BIS called for central banks to take "bold actions" to advance digital central bank systems, integrating central bank reserves, commercial bank deposits, and government bonds [6] - The proposed system aims to maintain the global payment dominance of central bank currencies while consolidating various national currencies and bonds onto a single programmable platform [6] - Digital technology is expected to enable near-instant settlement of payments and securities transactions, reducing costs and opening up new functionalities [6]

稳定币究竟是什么？大厂竞相布局又在图什么？ 稳定币概念图。图/视觉中国 什么是稳定币？ "希望有一天大家在全世界消费的时候，京东稳定币可以作为全球的支付手段。" 6月17日，京东集团董事局主席刘强东在一场分享会上透露，京东希望在全球所有主要的货币国家申请 稳定币牌照。 对稳定币显示出野心的不止京东。一周前，蚂蚁国际宣布将在中国香港、新加坡、卢森堡三地布局稳定 币业务；旗下蚂蚁数科也已启动稳定币香港牌照的申请程序。 事实上，稳定币并非新鲜事物，其诞生可以溯源至2014年，由Tether公司推出的RealCoin。该币后更名 为Tether（USDT），以1∶1的比例锚定美元，于2015年2月开始在交易所交易，并逐渐发展成为市场交易 量最大的稳定币之一。此后十年间，虚拟货币市场上涌现出一批稳定币，包括USDC、DAI、BUSD、 TUSD等。 综合这些名称各异的稳定币推出情况，清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长田轩接受 中国新闻周刊采访时给出定义性解释：稳定币是一种特殊的加密货币，其通过与特定资产（如法定货 币、商品或其他加密货币）挂钩，或借助算法机制，将自身价值稳定在某个固定水平。 田轩指出，与比 ...

（ 於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：1709） 自願性公告 與VIABTC HOLDINGS LIMITED 開展戰略合作之條款書 本公告由德林控股集團有限公司（「本公司」，連同附屬公司統稱為「本集團」） 自願刊發，旨在知會本公司股東及潛在投資者有關本集團之最新業務發展。 本公司董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）欣然宣佈，於2025年6月24日，本公司與 ViaBTC Holdings Limited（「ViaBTC」）訂立不具法律約束力之條款書（「條款 書」），以開展戰略合作。本集團將透過成立合營企業與ViaBTC深入合作，共同 進行：(i)加密貨幣場外(OTC)交易；(ii)向OTC及╱或加密貨幣挖礦客戶提供資 產管理及家族辦公室服務；及(iii)其他潛在業務合作，包括但不限於建立比特 幣(BTC)儲備及開發獲證券及期貨事務監察委員會發牌之虛擬資產交易及虛 擬資產管理平台（「建議成立合營企業」）。 1 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 ...