Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **technology sector** in China, specifically regarding **China Telecom (CT)** and its server tender results. Key Points and Arguments Server Tender Results - CT's server tender results indicate a **28% year-over-year growth** to **Rmb17 billion** [1] - The **localization rate** for CPUs in the tender increased from approximately **37% to 68%** [1] - CT has guided for a **22% growth** in computing capital expenditures (capex) for 2025 [1][2] Market Share Dynamics - Significant shifts in market share were observed, with **Lenovo, Power Leader, and ZTE** gaining the most, while **H3C, xFusion, and Inspur** saw substantial declines [4] - Inspur's decline is attributed to its recent inclusion in the **US Entity List**, which may further impact its market share [4] - xFusion is also considered vulnerable due to its ties with US sanctions [4] Localization Trends - The localization rate for the 2024-25 server tender reached **67.5%**, with **49%** of that attributed to **Huawei's Kupeng** [3] - The demand for locally developed cloud and AI technology is expected to drive further increases in localization rates among state-owned enterprises and government entities [3] Future Projections - CT's upcoming server tender for 2024-25 will involve **156,000 servers** [3] - The **cloud capex** for both CT and China Unicom (CU) is projected to grow over **20% year-over-year**, while China Mobile's (CM) capex is expected to remain flat [2] - Accelerating AI development in China may necessitate an upward revision of CM's cloud capex guidance in the second half of 2025 [2] Financial Performance and Risks - ZTE reported over **40% growth** in server revenue in the second half of 2024, but faces challenges due to lower margins (3-5%) compared to telecom equipment (40%+) [4] - The potential for an earnings miss at ZTE is highlighted, maintaining a rating of **Underperform (UNPF)** [4] Competitive Landscape - The top winners of CT's 2024-2025 server tender include: - **1. xFusion**: 17.9% - **2. Huakun Zhenyu**: 13.6% - **3. Power Leader**: 12.8% - **4. ZTE**: 10.3% - **5. Fiberhome**: 9.3% - **6. Inspur**: 7.2% - **7. H3C**: 7.0% [5] Historical Comparison - Comparison with the previous year's tender shows a decline in market share for xFusion, Inspur, and H3C, which were the top three players in 2023 [5] Additional Important Insights - The localization rate has nearly doubled from the previous tender, indicating a significant shift towards domestic suppliers [3][9] - The competitive pricing strategies of companies like Lenovo, which offered prices **13% below** the average of other winners, are influencing market dynamics [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of the technology sector in China, particularly in relation to server tenders and market share shifts.

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is positioned for a significant resurgence despite recent challenges, including allegations of accounting manipulation and concerns over AI infrastructure investment [1][2][3]. Financial and Audit Developments - Super Micro's new auditor, BDO, has verified the company's revenue and profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 as accurate, despite previous issues with Ernst & Young resigning [4][7]. - The company is upgrading its IT and accounting systems and is in the process of hiring a new CFO to improve its financial controls [7][8]. - The abrupt resignation of Ernst & Young may have been influenced by its own scandals, which could have led to a cautious approach regarding Super Micro [6]. AI Market Outlook - Despite fears of an AI infrastructure slowdown, investment in AI is expected to continue unless a severe global recession occurs [9][10]. - IDC forecasts a 42% compound annual growth rate for AI servers through 2028, aligning with Super Micro's CEO's expectation of 40% annual revenue growth [11]. Gross Margin Analysis - Super Micro's gross margin has decreased from over 18% at the end of 2022 to 11.8% recently, attributed to increased competition [14][16]. - Management maintains a long-term gross margin target of 14% to 17%, indicating potential for recovery as new technologies are introduced [19]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Super Micro's stock is trading at a low valuation of 13.7 times trailing earnings and eight times earnings estimates for fiscal 2026, suggesting significant upside potential [20]. - If the company achieves $40 billion in revenue by 2026 with a gross margin of 15%, it could yield a net profit of approximately $3.7 billion, translating to about $5.65 per share [22][23]. - A conservative multiple of 14 times earnings could elevate the share price to $80, representing over 150% upside from current levels [24].

Investment Ratings - The report initiates coverage on Huaqin and Lingyi with a Buy rating, and Inspur is rated Neutral [1][54]. Core Insights - The China AI servers supply chain is expected to be driven by increasing demand from the domestic market, with China Cloud capital expenditures projected to grow at 26% year-over-year in 2025 and maintain a similar high level in 2026 [1][27]. - Huaqin's net income is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2025 to 2027, while Inspur and Lingyi are expected to see net income growth of 17% and 31% CAGR, respectively, during the same period [2][54]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that Huaqin's strengths include extensive experience in smartphone ODM, strong R&D capabilities, and a highly automated production process [27][51]. Summary by Sections Huaqin - Huaqin is positioned as an ODM company with a diverse product range, including smartphones, PCs, and AI servers. The company is expected to benefit from increased Capex spending on AI servers and market share gains in legacy businesses [23][51]. - The 12-month price target for Huaqin is set at Rmb79.8, reflecting a target P/E multiple of 20x based on 2025E EPS estimates [26][52]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with contributions from servers and wearables expected to rise to 29% and 7% by 2028, respectively [23][40]. Inspur - Inspur is recognized as a leading supplier of AI servers, with a focus on serving Chinese clients. The company is expected to experience net income growth at a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2027 [54]. - The 12-month price target for Inspur is set at Rmb53, with a current trading P/E of 21x for 2025 [54]. - Inspur's strong R&D capabilities and experience in the server market are highlighted as key advantages in capitalizing on the growing demand for AI servers [54]. Lingyi - Lingyi is expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI devices and changes in smartphone form factors, with a projected net income growth of 31% CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [2][54]. - The report initiates coverage on Lingyi with a Buy rating and a price target of Rmb9.4, indicating a 30% upside [1][54]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive dynamics within the AI server supply chain, emphasizing the importance of local foundation models and the potential for market share gains as local peers exit the market [27][51]. - The valuation of Huaqin, Inspur, and Lingyi is compared to the Taiwan AI servers supply chain, with Huaqin and Lingyi trading at higher multiples due to their growth prospects [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - Elliott Investment Management has acquired a stake exceeding $1.5 billion in Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), positioning itself as one of the company's largest investors and indicating plans to engage with management [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Details - Elliott's investment in HPE comes as the company is valued at approximately $20 billion [2]. - The acquisition of HPE shares has led to a nearly 5% increase in stock price, reaching $14.98, although the shares have declined 30% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 index's 8% decline [4]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Challenges - HPE has announced a cost-cutting plan aimed at reducing expenses by about $350 million by fiscal 2027, which includes a 5% reduction in its global workforce [4][5]. - The company is currently pursuing an all-cash acquisition of Juniper Networks, but this deal faces legal challenges from the U.S. Justice Department, which argues it would harm competition and innovation [6]. Group 3: Elliott's Activism and History - Elliott Investment Management, managing $70 billion in assets, has been active in various campaigns, including seeking four board seats at Phillips 66 and holding nearly a 5% stake in BP [8]. - The firm has a history of influencing management changes in underperforming companies, with 14 CEOs having left their positions at companies where Elliott held stakes since 2022 [9].

中国云计算资本支出持续强劲，AI服务器需求上升高盛预计中国云计算相关资本开支将在2025年同比增长 26%，并于2026年维持高位。这为AI服务器供应链带来持续增长动力，尤其是本地基础模型优化将进一步推动 生成式AI设备和应用落地。 覆盖三家中国关键公司，分别给予不同评级 高盛首次覆盖华勤(603296.SS)、领益(002600.SZ)与浪潮信息（000977）(000977.SZ)。华勤和领益因营收增长与 估值匹配，被给予"买入"评级;浪潮因估值已合理，暂维持"中性"评级。目标价分别为:华勒RMB79.8；领益 RMB9.4；浪潮RMB53.0。 个股亮点拆解 (1)华勤将从传统智能手机/PC ODM转向AI服务器与智能穿戴设备，预计2025-27年净利润CAGR达22%，AI相关 营收占比快速提升。 (2)领益在折手机、XR/AI眼镜、散热/供电模块等组件领域多元化布局,预计2025-27年营收CAGR达20%. (3)浪潮作为AI服务器龙头，将受益于中国本地GPU/ASIC替代进程，2025-27年净利润CAGR达17%。 估值对比与敏感性分析 高盛认为三家公司2025年P/E(华勒20x,浪潮25x ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus of public funds in China on free cash flow products, with 17 fund companies having filed for a total of 36 related products as of March 28, 2025 [6][7][8] - The domestic free cash flow index has shown significant excess returns compared to benchmarks over the past decade, particularly in both rising and falling market conditions [7][8] - The report indicates a preference for energy and consumer sectors within the free cash flow index, while technology and growth sectors are underweighted [7][8] Group 1: Free Cash Flow Strategy - The investment essence of free cash flow (FCF) is emphasized as a crucial indicator in corporate financial analysis and valuation, underpinning sustainable growth and value distribution [6][7] - The report notes that the free cash flow index has a high concentration in small to mid-cap stocks, with a notable low price-to-earnings (PE) and high price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to benchmarks [7][8] - The U.S. market has seen rapid development of cash flow strategy ETFs, with products focusing on free cash flow as a core selection strategy gaining traction [8] Group 2: Fund Advisor Portfolio Insights - As of the end of March 2025, there are 423 fund advisor portfolios available on the Tian Tian Fund APP, reflecting an increase of 4 portfolios from the previous month [10][11] - The performance tracking of various portfolio types indicates that aggressive, balanced, and conservative portfolios have outperformed similar fund of funds (FOF) products [10][11] - The report details changes in fund holdings, with conservative portfolios reducing bond fund allocations while increasing cash fund allocations [12][13] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Stock Exchange reports that long-term funds, including social security and insurance funds, are increasing their market participation, bolstered by supportive government policies [16][17] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is actively encouraging central enterprises to enhance share buybacks and support listed companies, aiming to boost market confidence [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the Chinese liquid cooling server market, projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of $16.2 billion by 2029 [20][21]

Core Insights - The AI infrastructure market is expected to exceed $200 billion in spending by 2028, with both Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise well-positioned to benefit from this growth opportunity [2] Dell Technologies - Dell Technologies is experiencing strong demand for its AI-optimized servers, particularly the PowerEdge XE9680L, driven by digital transformation and interest in generative AI applications [3] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Dell's AI-optimized server orders increased by $1.7 billion, with shipments totaling $2.1 billion and a backlog of $4.1 billion [5] - Dell's partnership with companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft is expanding, enhancing its AI capabilities and enterprise AI adoption [6] - Dell's shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 0.5X, indicating a relatively low valuation [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dell's fiscal 2026 earnings is $9.34 per share, reflecting a 14.74% year-over-year increase [15] Hewlett Packard Enterprise - Hewlett Packard is also benefiting from strong demand for its AI-optimized servers, with its server business growing 30% year-over-year to $4.3 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2025 [7] - The launch of HPE's ProLiant Gen 12 server platform is expected to improve performance and energy efficiency, potentially replacing multiple older server generations and reducing power consumption by at least 65% [8] - HPE's GreenLake cloud product has achieved significant growth, with annual recurring revenue surpassing $2 billion, a 46% increase year-over-year [9] - HPE's shares are trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 0.52X, slightly higher than Dell's [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HPE's fiscal 2025 earnings is $1.94 per share, indicating a 2.51% decline year-over-year [15] Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Dell's shares have decreased by 34.9%, while HPE's shares have dropped by 37.6%, largely due to broader market weaknesses and rising trade tensions [10] - Dell holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), making it a stronger pick compared to HPE, which has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [17]

Core Viewpoint - The AI server shipment growth rate for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 24.5% due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. value-related regulations may help mitigate some tariff impacts on AI servers [1] - Mexico is not subject to additional tariffs, allowing ODM system manufacturers to ship to U.S. clients through Mexico and benefit from tax exemptions under the USMCA agreement [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Market uncertainties may lead OEMs or CSPs to adopt a more conservative approach, delaying actual purchasing progress [1] - If further retaliatory tariffs lead to significant trade barriers, global inflation or decreased consumer spending could result in a further reduction of the AI server shipment growth rate to around 18% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Lifan Shuke has received a regulatory attention letter from the Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau, highlighting issues related to self-inspection and information disclosure regarding its AI integrated machine products and business model [2][4]. Regulatory Concerns - The Anhui Securities Regulatory Bureau raised two main concerns: 1. Lifan Shuke has not conducted a comprehensive self-inspection of its intelligent software products and the newly added ultra-cube intelligent hardware products for 2024, requiring immediate rectification and adherence to securities laws and accounting standards for accurate disclosure in the 2024 annual report [4][5]. 2. The company needs to clarify the accuracy and completeness of its information disclosure regarding the sales of AI integrated machines on its WeChat mall, especially given that sales were reported as zero [4][6]. Financial Performance Discrepancies - There is a mismatch in Lifan Shuke's financial data for the first three quarters of 2024, with reported revenue of 221 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.62% [6]. - The company explained that the revenue increase was primarily due to the sales of ultra-cube intelligent hardware products, despite a 19.03% year-on-year decrease in ending inventory [6]. Business Model and Strategy - Lifan Shuke has transitioned from traditional board materials to server-related businesses, raising questions about its business model and profitability [7]. - The company established a subsidiary, Shenzhen Ultra Cube Data Technology Co., Ltd., in December 2023, aimed at enhancing its server business's research and competitive advantage [6][8]. - A stock incentive plan was introduced for key management and technical personnel at Shenzhen Ultra Cube, with profit targets set for the years 2024 to 2026 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent inclusion of 54 Chinese entities, including major server companies, on the U.S. Entity List is expected to impact the AI infrastructure and server market in China, potentially leading to increased prices and supply chain challenges [2][4][7]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Entity List Inclusion - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 54 Chinese entities to its Entity List, affecting companies in high-performance computing and quantum technology [2]. - Notable companies affected include Inspur Group and its subsidiaries, which may face restrictions in acquiring critical AI chips from U.S. suppliers [4][5]. - Following the announcement, Inspur's stock price fell by 2.89%, indicating a relatively calm market reaction, as companies had anticipated this outcome [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Responses - The inclusion on the Entity List is expected to compel affected companies to seek alternative solutions, potentially fostering domestic innovation in server technology [7]. - Despite the challenges, some industry experts believe that there are still channels to acquire AI servers, although costs are likely to rise due to reduced supply options [8]. - The server market share data indicates that Inspur ranks second globally and first in China, while Ningchang also holds a top position domestically, highlighting their significance in the AI server market [7]. Group 3: Future Implications - The restrictions on U.S. chip purchases will likely increase operational costs for domestic companies relying on NVIDIA GPUs, which are already in high demand [8]. - There are concerns that the potential ban on NVIDIA's H20 GPU in China could further escalate costs and hinder the development of AI infrastructure [8].