Group 1 - The company has a complete aluminum product supply chain and is one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers [1] - The company aims to become a world-leading century-old manufacturing enterprise with a focus on high dividend returns, similar to Shenhua [1] - The company has a projected net profit of 22.64 billion, 24.21 billion, and 25.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.44, 2.61, and 2.73 CNY [1] Group 2 - The company has maintained an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons since 2017, with a strategic shift of production from Shandong to Yunnan [2] - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is primarily based on large anode prebaked electrolytic cells with a current intensity of over 400KA, which helps reduce casting costs [2] - The company has a self-sufficient power supply rate of approximately 50% due to its self-built thermal power plants [2] Group 3 - The company has an abundant alumina production capacity of 21 million tons, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects [3] - The company’s Indonesian alumina project is the first large-scale alumina smelting plant built by a Chinese enterprise overseas [3] - The company established the "Winning Alliance" in 2015 to secure stable upstream bauxite supply, achieving a bauxite production of 44.188 million tons in 2023 [3] Group 4 - The company has advanced aluminum deep processing technology and is actively developing recycled aluminum and circular economy projects [4] - The company has an aluminum processing capacity of 1.5665 million tons, with significant breakthroughs in high-end aluminum materials [4] - The company completed a 200,000-ton waste aluminum recycling project in 2023, aiming to become a competitive player in the green aluminum packaging industry [4]

在华尔街长期以来有着"黄金空头"称号的花旗转向在短期内看涨黄金。花旗表示，2025下半年，美国经济的增长趋势趋于疲软以及与关税相关的通胀担忧预 计将持续升温，再加上美元走弱，金价将适度走高，进而可能再度创下历史新高。 盘面上，8月5日，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中摸高0.78%，现涨0.31%，冲击日线3连阳！ ETF资金方面，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购120万份，值得关注的是，该ETF已连续4个交易日获资金净流入，合计金额348万元，反映资金 看好板块后市，逐步进场布局！ 成份股方面，铜业龙头白银有色、铜陵有色领涨超3%，黄金股湖南黄金涨逾2%，铝业龙头明泰铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业涨超1%。 7月30日，美国铜"232"关税落地，引发市场巨震。不过，业内多方仍然看好铜的市场走势，认为长期来看，铜精矿紧张仍是未来几年的主旋律，在需求上， 新能源转型对铜需求形成长期支撑。 具体到企业层面，部分相关企业表示相关政策调整的影响较小。其中，有色龙头ETF（159876）成份股洛阳钼业表示，公司自有铜产品为阴极铜，在豁免范 围内，且产品销往全球多地，因此此次关税政 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Outlook - The implementation of the US copper "232" tariffs has caused significant market reactions, but industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term copper market, citing ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and sustained demand from the energy transition [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, a component of the leading non-ferrous metal ETF, report minimal impact from the tariff changes due to their global sales and exemption status for their copper products [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Recent US economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, alongside rising geopolitical tensions that have increased safe-haven demand, leading to a continuous rise in gold prices [1] - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may rise due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs, potentially reaching new historical highs by late 2025 [1][3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a surge in investment interest, driven by several factors including government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, positive earnings forecasts from listed companies, and a significant year-to-date price increase of 24.91% in the sector [4] - As of July 31, 2025, over 80% of companies in the non-ferrous metals index have reported positive profit forecasts, indicating strong operational resilience [4] Group 4: ETF Performance and Composition - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has seen a net inflow of 1.2 million units, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1] - The ETF's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment approach [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the world's leading aluminum manufacturers, with a complete vertical integration of the aluminum product supply chain, enhancing its resilience and performance stability [5][14]. - The company aims to become a century-old leading manufacturing enterprise, similar to Shenhua, with a strong emphasis on high dividend returns for investors [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established a complete aluminum product supply chain, integrating mining, alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing, and recycling [5][14]. - As of March 2025, the company has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons [14][37]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company currently holds an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.459 million tons, with production primarily located in Shandong and Yunnan [37][39]. - The company is implementing a "North Aluminum South Move" strategy to relocate production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with expected capacities of 3.451 million tons and 3.008 million tons by 2027, respectively [37][44]. 3. Alumina Business - The company has a robust alumina capacity of 21 million tons, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas sources [5][19]. - The alumina project in Indonesia is notable as the first large-scale alumina refinery established by a Chinese company overseas [5][25]. 4. Aluminum Processing Business - The company has advanced aluminum processing technology and is actively developing recycled aluminum projects, aiming to become a competitive player in the green aluminum packaging industry [5][6]. - As of 2024, the company has an aluminum processing capacity of 1.5665 million tons, with significant growth in high-precision aluminum products [5][6]. 5. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 22.64 billion RMB in 2025, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.9 times based on the market value as of July 30, 2025 [6][7]. - The company has shown a historical growth trend in revenue and net profit, with a record net profit of 22.372 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.21% [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures**: The domestic economy is under downward pressure and has entered a policy observation period. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range. The stock market is expected to be volatile, and it's recommended to wait and see. The bond market is suitable for band - trading. The EC in the shipping market is expected to be volatile and decline [1][2][3][4][6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals are expected to stop falling and rise, and it's recommended to buy on dips. Copper is recommended to hold cash and wait. Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short term. Tin is expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to hedge inventory. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter a shock range. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have limited upward and downward space. Iron ore is expected to be strong. Coking coal and coke have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended not to be overly pessimistic [11][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][24][26][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space. LPG supply and demand remain loose. It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels. MEG and bottle chips are expected to fluctuate in a range. Methanol's short - term fundamentals are weak. PP is expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern. PE is expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery. Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to narrow the price difference. Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and falls. Urea's 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [32][34][35][38][39][40][42][43][44][45][46][47][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][60]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oilseeds, it's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts. Vegetable oils are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger. Corn and starch are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly [67][68][69][70][71][72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are affected by non - farm data and inflation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's guidance, and it's expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to be volatile due to the lack of a continuous leading sector and short - term positive factors [5][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline of treasury bond futures in the afternoon is affected by the A - share market and false news. It's recommended for band - trading [6][7]. - **Shipping (EC)**: Affected by US tariffs and spot quotes, the EC is expected to be volatile and decline [9][10]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose due to the recovery of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and they are expected to stop falling and rise [11]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are affected by the US dollar index, and it's recommended to hold cash and wait [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is under pressure and fluctuates, alumina is weak, and cast aluminum alloy is in a shock state [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to decline slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar index [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It's expected to be in a wide - range shock due to supply - side disturbances [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter a shock range, and it's recommended to pay attention to the callback buying opportunity for industrial silicon [19][20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They have limited upward and downward space due to unclear driving factors [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: It's expected to be strong due to good fundamentals and high demand [24][26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term [27][28]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are recommended not to be overly pessimistic as the market sentiment has cooled but the fundamentals are supported [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It's under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space due to weakening seasonal demand [32][34]. - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose [35][37]. - **PX - PTA**: It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels as the TA processing fee is at a historical low [38][39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate in a range as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out [40][42]. - **Methanol**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and it's necessary to pay attention to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [43][44]. - **PP**: It's expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern due to supply - demand imbalance [45][46]. - **PE**: It's expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery [47][49]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: It's recommended to narrow the price difference between them, and styrene is recommended to be shorted on rallies [50][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: It's weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [54]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It's affected by crude oil and falls, and it's recommended to be short - configured [55]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak due to the pressure on the spot market and the weakening of agricultural demand [56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [57][58][60]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: It's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts as the domestic far - month has a supply - demand gap [67][68][69]. - **Vegetable Oils**: They are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: They are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly due to weak demand [71][72]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: It's expected to be in a shock state after the price decline, and it's recommended to wait and see [61]. - **Log**: It's recommended for non - industrial customers to operate in a range and for industrial customers to hedge. The price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost [62][63][64]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is weak, and the cost is disturbed. The supply is loose, and the demand changes little [64][65][66].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Core View - On the 4th, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. The main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to close at 20,525. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium was reported at 50. The cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to oscillate stronger, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -515. In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines suggest limited shortages, with ore prices mainly at the bottom. The stimulus from the anti - involution policy in the surplus industry for related industrial products has temporarily ended, and the alumina surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina and can short - sell at high points. In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry, with weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure. At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains high, the demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories show a seasonal increase. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, macro - sentiment dominates the aluminum market. The fall of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be stronger, but the off - season continues, and one can appropriately short at high points [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to 20,525, with the index's total open interest decreasing by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium at 50. The AD - AL negative spread was -515 [8] - Bauxite supply may tighten in August due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and mine restarts limit shortages, with ore prices at the bottom [8] - Alumina's surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before policy clarity, be cautious about the upside space and consider short - selling at high points [8] - Cast aluminum is in the automotive off - season, with weak supply and demand, following Shanghai aluminum in range - bound fluctuations and maintaining a low negative spread [8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off - season, inventories are seasonally increasing, and smelting profits have declined but are still high. Macro - sentiment dominates, and one can short at high points [8] 2. Industry News - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Potential partners include EGA or a Chinese company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh globally [9] - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10] - On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mining rights with no actual mining activities [10] - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a national power outage in April. The smelter has a capacity of 228,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Rusal (00486.HK), announced that it will hold a board meeting on August 14, 2025, to approve its interim financial results for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for August 14, 2025 [1] - The meeting will focus on approving the interim financial performance for the first half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities Asset Management increased its stake in China Aluminum (02600) by purchasing 6.152 million shares at a price of HKD 6.1693 per share, totaling approximately HKD 37.9535 million [1] - After the increase, CITIC Securities holds approximately 359 million shares, representing a 9.09% ownership stake in China Aluminum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Aluminum Corporation successfully issued a 10-year medium-term note in the interbank market, raising 500 million yuan with a subscription multiple of 3.26 times and a coupon rate of 2.10%, which is lower than the AAA- valuation by 5 basis points [1] - The issuance was supported by a non-deal roadshow held on June 21 in Shanghai, which enhanced the company's visibility in the capital market and demonstrated its competitive pricing power, laying the groundwork for the successful issuance of long-term bonds [1] - The bond issuance was characterized as a non-mainstream term, which limited the investor base and required higher qualifications for the issuer, leading the company to conduct thorough market research to identify the optimal market window [1] Group 2 - The company achieved a coupon rate that was 17 basis points lower than the AA+ rating of the China Bond market and 5 basis points lower than the AAA- rating, thereby optimizing its financial costs and debt structure [1] - The successful issuance reflects the high recognition of the company's overall strength and development prospects by capital market investors, showcasing its capabilities and influence in market-oriented financing [1] - The bond was led by CITIC Securities, with joint underwriting from CITIC Jianzhong, Guotai Junan, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, covering a diverse range of investors including insurance companies, funds, banks, and securities institutions, thereby activating capital market funding channels [3]

公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入14.83亿元，同比增长11.94%，实现净利润 1.61亿元，同比增长14.62%，基本每股收益为0.1350元，加权平均净资产收益率2.55%。 7月12日公司发布上半年业绩预告，预计实现净利润5.00亿元至5.60亿元，变动区间为39.09%~55.78%。 （数据宝） 焦作万方8月4日披露，截至7月31日公司股东户数为62718户，较上期（7月20日）减少8747户，环比降 幅为12.24%。 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至发稿，焦作万方收盘价为8.50元，上涨1.80%，本期筹码集中以来股价累计 上涨2.78%。具体到各交易日，6次上涨，5次下跌。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...