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欧洲防务的虚假繁荣:军费增加难掩战略真空
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-05-13 07:48
Core Viewpoint - The discussion around defense spending in Europe is intensifying, with many leaders claiming to have achieved NATO's target of 2% of GDP for defense spending, but this does not guarantee security without unified command, interoperability, and public support [1][4] Group 1: Current Defense Landscape - European military forces appear strong on the surface but may collapse under high-intensity conflict due to lack of preparedness and outdated infrastructure [1][2] - The reliance on the U.S. for comprehensive security, including airlift, intelligence, and nuclear deterrence, is becoming increasingly problematic as the U.S. shows reduced interest in European security [1][2] - The aging defense infrastructure, built during the Cold War, hampers rapid military deployment across Europe, with logistical challenges leading to significant delays in troop movements [1][2] Group 2: Challenges in Defense Coordination - Europe faces significant challenges in establishing its own intelligence and command systems, requiring substantial investment and long-term political commitment, which is currently lacking [2][4] - The fragmentation of military capabilities across European nations leads to inefficiencies, with numerous weapon systems complicating logistics and operational coordination [2][3] - Public support for defense is waning, with low willingness among citizens in countries like Spain, Germany, and Italy to fight in wartime, contrasting with Ukraine's strong national resolve [2][3] Group 3: National Defense Status - The UK has a reduced military size of approximately 72,000 personnel, the lowest in nearly two centuries, despite recent successful deployments [3] - France emphasizes strategic autonomy but still relies on U.S. intelligence support and faces leadership challenges within the EU [3] - Germany's military readiness is questionable, with key forces not expected to be fully operational until after 2027, and significant personnel shortages [3] - Poland is actively expanding its military budget to 4.7% of GDP and plans to increase troop numbers to 500,000, but faces integration challenges with diverse weapon systems [3] Group 4: Potential for Improvement - The core issue for Europe is not insufficient investment but ineffective investment, as existing forces lack the capability for rapid response and multinational cooperation [4] - Efforts are underway to upgrade critical military transport infrastructure, with over 500 key points being improved [5] - New defense cooperation frameworks between the UK and the EU aim to enhance joint deployments and mobilize approximately €150 billion in defense investments [5] - NATO and the EU are identifying critical capability gaps, indicating a potential strategic awakening, but deeper cultural, political, and financial consensus is needed for real change [5]
国际观察丨欧洲军费“狂飙”背后的承压与破局
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-05-02 03:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the unprecedented increase in military spending in Europe, driven by security anxieties and a desire for defense autonomy amid perceived diminishing U.S. commitments to European security [1][2][3] - Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, military spending in Europe has consistently risen, surpassing levels seen at the end of the Cold War, with all European countries, except Malta, increasing their military budgets in 2024 [2] - NATO member countries in Europe are projected to spend a total of $454 billion on military expenditures in 2024, accounting for approximately 55% of global military spending, with a significant increase in military spending relative to GDP compared to non-NATO countries [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the surge in military spending is largely a response to concerns about Russia and the potential withdrawal of U.S. support, prompting European nations to reassess their defense strategies [2][3] - European leaders have increasingly called for greater responsibility in ensuring their own security, with initiatives aimed at enhancing defense autonomy gaining momentum, including various legislative measures to support defense production and procurement [4][5] - The European Union has set ambitious plans, such as the €800 billion "Rearm Europe" initiative and the "Ready for 2030" white paper, aimed at strengthening defense capabilities through increased investment and collaboration in the defense sector [5]