Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has officially abolished its long-standing family planning policy, allowing couples to decide on the number and timing of their children, marking a significant shift in demographic policy aimed at addressing declining birth rates and an aging population [4][5][6]. Group 1: Demographic Changes - The revision of the population ordinance signifies the end of a 37-year family planning policy in Vietnam, which previously limited families to one or two children [4][5]. - Vietnam's total fertility rate is currently 1.91 children per woman, below the replacement level, with urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City reporting even lower rates of 1.3 [5][10]. - The country is experiencing a demographic transition from concerns about overpopulation in the late 20th century to fears of an aging population and labor shortages today [7][19]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Vietnam's population is projected to peak at 107 million by 2051, after which a decline is expected if birth rates do not significantly increase [50]. - The country is currently in a demographic window where it can leverage its large population for economic growth, particularly in labor-intensive industries [45][52]. - The agricultural sector, particularly rice production, is well-positioned to support the population due to favorable natural conditions, with rice exports expected to reach 8.2 million tons in 2023, generating $4.8 billion in foreign exchange [36][35]. Group 3: Future Challenges - As Vietnam transitions to an aging society, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older is around 10%, and this is expected to increase, leading to potential economic burdens related to healthcare and pensions [19][52]. - The country faces a critical period to convert its demographic advantage into economic benefits before the population dividend diminishes [53]. - The shift in societal attitudes towards family size and child-rearing, influenced by modernization and economic factors, poses challenges to reversing declining birth rates [16][43].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a rice crisis characterized by high prices and shortages, reflecting deep-rooted issues in its agricultural policies and practices [1][6][8]. Group 1: Current Rice Prices and Market Dynamics - As of late April to early May, the average price of rice in Japan was 4,214 yen per 5 kilograms, a decrease of 19 yen from the previous week, marking the first decline in 18 weeks, yet still about double the price from the same period last year [1]. - Despite a slight decrease in rice prices, experts predict limited room for further declines due to high prices of branded rice [1][8]. - The ongoing rice shortage has led to limited purchasing options in supermarkets, with some stores implementing purchase limits [5][12]. Group 2: Agricultural Policies and Historical Context - The rice shortage, referred to as the "Reiwa rice turmoil," is attributed to policies aimed at protecting farmers, extreme weather, and the long-term effects of the "reduction policy" that limited rice production [6][7]. - The "reduction policy," which was in place until its repeal in 2018, aimed to stabilize rice prices by controlling production, but has led to a lack of flexibility in the market [6][7]. - Following the repeal, rice production has continued to decline, with actual production from 2018 to 2023 decreasing despite plans for increased output [7]. Group 3: Economic Impact on Farmers - Rising rice prices have not translated into increased profits for farmers due to soaring costs of fertilizers, fuel, and machinery, which have risen by approximately 30%, 25%, and 15% respectively since 2021 [10][11]. - The distribution structure in Japan compresses farmers' profit margins, as many rely on cooperatives or wholesalers that charge high fees [10]. - The aging farmer population and declining interest in agriculture among younger generations exacerbate the challenges faced by the industry [9][11]. Group 4: Government Response and Future Outlook - The Japanese government has begun releasing reserve rice and increasing imports to address the crisis, but the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain [12][14]. - Experts warn that increased imports could diminish the incentive for domestic rice production, potentially leading to long-term challenges for the agricultural sector [12][13]. - The rice crisis may have broader implications for global rice trade dynamics, affecting supply chains and pricing in other countries [8][14].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is currently facing a rice supply shortage, with rising prices causing public dissatisfaction and prompting government intervention to stabilize the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite an increase in rice harvest by 180,000 tons last year, procurement agents reported a shortfall of 230,000 tons, leading to confusion in the industry [6]. - The price of a standard 5-kilogram bag of rice has surged to an average of 3,952 yen, a staggering 95% increase compared to the previous year [13]. - The Japanese rice market is dominated by a complex distribution system, with collection agents playing a crucial role in purchasing from farmers and selling to wholesalers and retailers [21]. Group 2: Government Response - The Japanese government has decided to release part of its emergency rice reserves, auctioning off 210,000 tons to address the supply gap [26]. - Government policies aimed at supporting small farmers have inadvertently contributed to the current supply crisis, as they have restricted rice production to maintain price stability [28]. Group 3: Consumer Impact - Consumers are feeling the pressure from rising rice prices, leading to limited purchasing options in supermarkets and a shift towards alternative food products [18][19]. - The ongoing price increases have sparked public anger, with food costs becoming a focal point in political discourse and impacting election outcomes [16]. Group 4: Agricultural Challenges - The average age of rice farmers in Japan is around 71 years, with a 25% decrease in the number of farmers from 2015 to 2020, indicating a declining agricultural workforce [31]. - Rising costs of fertilizers and pesticides are further squeezing farmers' profit margins, contributing to the overall decline in rice cultivation [29].