Company Overview - Olin Bio has submitted its application to list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the exclusive sponsor [1] - The company focuses on the research, development, production, and commercialization of innovative vaccines, particularly targeting unmet medical needs in "super bacteria vaccines" and "adult vaccines" [1] - Olin Bio has successfully commercialized three products: adsorbed tetanus vaccine, Hib conjugate vaccine, and A and C group meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine [1] Market Position - According to a report by Zhi Shi Consulting, Olin Bio's adsorbed tetanus vaccine is expected to maintain a leading market position in China from 2022 to 2024, with a market share exceeding 80% in the batch release market [1] - The company possesses the most comprehensive pipeline of targeted vaccines against "super bacteria," including innovative candidates for Staphylococcus aureus, Helicobacter pylori, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Group A Streptococcus, all of which are classified as high or critical priority by the World Health Organization [1] Industry Growth - The market size for tetanus vaccines in China is projected to grow from RMB 200 million in 2019 to RMB 800 million by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.2% [2] - By 2035, the tetanus vaccine market is expected to reach RMB 2.6 billion, with a CAGR of 10.8% from 2024 to 2035, driven by an aging population and expanded applications [2] - The Hib vaccine market in China is anticipated to grow from RMB 500 million in 2024 to RMB 2.4 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 15.7% [2] - The meningococcal vaccine market is expected to increase from RMB 2.6 billion in 2019 to RMB 2.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 1.4%, and reach RMB 5.8 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 7.0% from 2024 to 2035 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Zhifei Biological has significantly declined, with a notable drop in revenue and profit, raising concerns about its future growth potential in the saturated HPV vaccine market [4][6][9]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Zhifei Biological reported a revenue decrease of 40% to 2.705 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 6.01 billion yuan, marking a 556.79% decline [9]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, down 66.53% year-on-year, and recorded a net profit loss of 1.206 billion yuan, a shift from profit to loss [9][10]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities surged by 201.18% to 2.985 billion yuan due to reduced payments for agency product purchases [11]. - Sales expenses decreased by 16.57% to 1.615 billion yuan, while R&D expenses fell by nearly 10% to 669 million yuan, which may impact the competitiveness of its products [12]. Market Challenges - The HPV vaccine market is becoming saturated, leading to a significant decline in sales for Zhifei Biological's key products [6][22]. - The company’s four-valent HPV vaccine saw a batch issuance volume drop to zero, while the nine-valent HPV vaccine issuance fell by 76.8% to approximately 4.24 million doses [24]. - The performance of the newly anticipated shingles vaccine has also been underwhelming, with only about 570,000 doses issued, a decrease of 64.24% [24]. Ownership and Dividends - Zhifei Biological has a history of generous dividends, with a total of 15 distributions amounting to 7.318 billion yuan since 2010, resulting in a dividend rate of 20.7% [13][14]. - Despite a significant drop in profits, the company distributed 479 million yuan in dividends last year [14]. Historical Context - Zhifei Biological was founded by Jiang Rensheng, who transitioned from a rural teacher to a prominent figure in the vaccine industry, leading to substantial growth in the company's revenue and market presence [25][30][36]. - The company experienced rapid growth after securing exclusive rights to distribute the four-valent HPV vaccine, with revenues soaring from 446 million yuan in 2016 to 52.918 billion yuan in 2023 [37][38]. Current Valuation - As of November 21, Zhifei Biological's stock price was 20.19 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 48.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of over 300 billion yuan from its peak in 2021 [7][40].

疫苗可预防的疾病给全龄人群带来了沉重的健康负担，在叠加感染的情况下，更带来严重的死亡风险。 《共识》建议，疫苗接种是预防和控制传染病最经济且有效的公共卫生措施，能够降低多种传染病和部 分慢性疾病的发生以及重症和死亡风险。 当前我国已经进入流感流行季。《共识》中提到，季节性流感接种疫苗可使老年糖尿病患者的住院率和 死亡率分别降低45%和38%，并与降低心血管死亡风险相关联；在急性心力衰竭住院患者中，住院期间 接种流感疫苗可以改善其生存率并降低随后12个月内的再住院风险。与此同时，感染性疾病对老年人和 成人的危害严重，但公众对接种疫苗预防感染、降低重症和死亡风险的认识水平偏低，医务人员等专业 人士仍存在"疫苗犹豫"，成人预防接种服务体系亦不完善。 新京报讯(记者王卡拉)近日，我国首个聚焦成人疫苗政策体系，多学科跨领域的专家共识——《中国成 人疫苗接种健康促进策略专家共识》(简称《共识》)发布，聚焦成人疫苗接种的必要性与健康价值，针 对我国成人免疫规划短板提出系统性解决方案。其中，流感疫苗接种作为降低人群发病风险、减轻医疗 负担的关键举措，被多次重点强调。 我国现行免疫规划以儿童为重点，成人疫苗服务主要依靠医疗机构 ...

《中国成人疫苗接种健康促进策略专家共识》发布，流感防控成为重点方向 中新网北京11月20日电 近日，我国首个聚焦成人疫苗政策体系，多学科跨领域的专家共识——《中国 成人疫苗接种健康促进策略专家共识》(以下简称《共识》)发布。《共识》由清华大学健康中国研究 院、北京大学公共卫生学院、南方科技大学全科医学院、公共安全科学技术学会公共卫生安全与健康专 业委员会牵头，联合近50位专家学者共同制订。 《共识》聚焦成人疫苗接种的必要性与健康价值，针对我国成人免疫规划短板提出系统性解决方案，其 中流感疫苗接种作为降低人群发病风险、减轻医疗负担的关键举措，被多次提及。 流感等疫苗可预防的疾病给全龄人群带来了沉重的健康负担，在叠加感染的情况下，更带来严重的死亡 风险。《共识》建议，疫苗接种是预防和控制传染病最经济且有效的公共卫生措施，能够降低多种传染 病和部分慢性疾病的发生以及重症和死亡风险。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 11月10日，在国家疾病预防控制局召开的"秋冬季急性呼吸道传染病防控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Vaccine Industry Association has issued an initiative to combat "involution" competition in the vaccine sector, aiming to promote high-quality development and establish a healthy competitive environment in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Initiative Details - The initiative mandates all members of the Chinese Vaccine Industry Association to adhere to the Vaccine Administration Law and the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, ensuring fair and legal pricing based on production costs and market demand [1]. - Members are required to resist disorderly low-price competition and are prohibited from participating in bidding with prices below cost, thereby ensuring product and service quality standards [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The association currently has over 330 member units and 35 branches, encompassing major vaccine and biological product companies, as well as upstream and downstream service providers in the biopharmaceutical industry [4]. - A price war has emerged in the public market, with significant price drops observed. For instance, the bid price for a trivalent flu vaccine from Shanghai Biological Products Research Institute was set at 5.5 yuan per dose in September, marking a new low in the public flu vaccine market [4]. - The price of a bivalent HPV vaccine from Watson Bio was reduced to 27.5 yuan per dose in a procurement project, humorously compared to the cost of a cup of milk tea [4]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The price war reflects a phenomenon of homogenized competition within the industry, leading to financial pressure on vaccine companies. In the first three quarters of this year, 10 out of 14 listed vaccine companies reported a year-on-year decline in net profit [5]. - Notably, five companies, including Zhifei Biological Products and Kanglaite, reported significant losses, totaling over 12 billion yuan for Zhifei alone [5]. - Industry insiders have expressed concerns that some companies are engaging in price wars to survive or capture market share, hoping for further national measures to address the issue of "involution" [5].

眼下，河南已进入流感流行季，甲型H3N2病毒成为当前主要流行毒株。大家最关心的是：现在打疫苗 还来得及吗？该怎么选疫苗？记者就此采访了相关专家。 "我儿子和他同桌几乎是同时发烧。"11月11日，在郑州人民医院东院区儿科门诊，李女士带着发烧的儿 子焦急地等待就诊。诊室里，不少家长带着孩子前来看病，一些孩子出现高烧、咳嗽等症状。 该院儿科副主任李源介绍，从上周开始，门诊的流感病例明显增加，平均每天接诊的流感儿童约200人 次。 如何有效预防流感？"每年接种流感疫苗是预防流感最经济、最有效的方式。"张肖肖指出，人群对流感 病毒普遍易感，而婴幼儿、老年人及慢性病患者因免疫力较低，属于高危人群，这类人尤其建议接种疫 苗。 目前，我国批准上市的流感疫苗包括三价和四价，接种方式有注射和鼻喷两种。据了解，当前我省疫苗 供应充足。 如何选择疫苗？张肖肖表示："三价和四价疫苗的主要区别在于覆盖的病毒亚型数量。无论选择哪一 种，只要是经国家批准上市的疫苗，都能有效预防流感。" 流感已进入流行季，一直没来得及带孩子接种疫苗的王女士有些着急：现在接种还来得及吗？ 张肖肖说，流感疫苗产生相应抗体的时间一般是2—4周，所以疾控部门一直提倡 ...

Core Insights - The company reported its worst quarterly results in a decade, with revenue of 7.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.06%, and a net loss of 6.653 billion yuan, a year-on-year drop of 156.1% [1] Group 1: Dependency on Agency Model - The end of the "easy profit era" for HPV vaccines is evident as the company, once benefiting from being the exclusive agent for Merck's HPV vaccine in China, faces declining sales due to increased competition and market saturation [1] - The approval of domestic nine-valent HPV vaccines in June 2025 and the inclusion of HPV vaccines in national immunization programs further compress the market for self-paid high-priced HPV vaccines [1] - The company experienced a 76.8% year-on-year decline in the batch issuance of the nine-valent HPV vaccine in the first half of 2025, with zero issuance for the four-valent HPV vaccine [1] Group 2: Struggles with Self-Developed Products - The company is struggling to transition to an innovative enterprise, as its self-developed products lack competitiveness, with zero batch issuance for the 23-valent pneumonia vaccine in the first half of the year [2] - The company faces intense price competition, with competitors offering the pneumonia vaccine at a significantly lower price of 25 yuan compared to the market price of 200 yuan [2] Group 3: Challenges in Transformation and Financial Health - To accelerate its transformation, the company invested 593 million yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Chen'an Biotech, entering the GLP-1 drug market, which is already highly competitive with 21 GLP-1 drugs either on the market or in late-stage development as of July 2025 [3] - The company has high accounts receivable and inventory, amounting to 12.814 billion yuan and 20.246 billion yuan respectively, which together account for over 70% of total assets, posing a risk of financial strain if not managed effectively [3] Conclusion - The company's difficulties reflect the broader challenge faced by Chinese vaccine companies in transitioning from a channel-driven model to an innovation-driven one, emphasizing the need for rapid commercialization of self-developed products and optimization of asset structure to return to a growth trajectory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for adults aged 18 and above with increased risk of herpes zoster marks a significant expansion of its market potential in China, providing new growth momentum for GSK's vaccine sales [1][2][4]. Group 1: Vaccine Approval and Market Expansion - GSK's RZV has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for use in adults aged 18 and above who are at increased risk of herpes zoster due to known diseases or treatments that cause immune deficiency [1][2]. - This approval expands the vaccine's protective range, which was initially limited to individuals aged 50 and above since its launch in June 2020 [1][3]. - The vaccine is the first and only one approved in China for this specific high-risk group, addressing a significant clinical gap in prevention [2][4]. Group 2: Disease Burden and Risk Factors - Herpes zoster, commonly known as "shingles," is a significant health burden in China, particularly among individuals aged 50 and above, with approximately 1.56 million new cases reported annually in this age group [2][3]. - The risk of developing herpes zoster increases with age, and certain conditions such as HIV infection and malignancies further elevate this risk, with affected individuals being 2.3 to 4.0 times more likely to contract the disease [3][6]. Group 3: Market Potential and Growth - The domestic herpes zoster vaccine market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 3.73 billion yuan in 2022 expected to reach 5.63 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [5]. - GSK's vaccine targets a population of 340 million people aged 50 and above in China, and with an estimated peak penetration rate of 10%, the market potential could reach approximately 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - The newly approved indication for high-risk adults represents an untapped market segment with substantial growth potential, driven by a large population base and a strong demand for preventive measures [5][6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Currently, there are two approved herpes zoster vaccines in China: GSK's RZV and Baike Biological's "Ganwei," which utilize different technological approaches [8]. - GSK's RZV, as a recombinant vaccine, has established itself as a core growth engine for the company's vaccine business, demonstrating strong revenue stability and market competitiveness [8][9]. - Continuous investment in research and development is crucial for maintaining the competitive edge of RZV, with ongoing studies aimed at assessing its efficacy and safety in high-risk populations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is set to significantly reduce disease burden and enhance public health, while intensifying market competition and accelerating industry restructuring [2][6]. Group 1: National Immunization Program - The National Health Commission and seven other departments announced that the HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program starting November 10, 2025, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][7]. - Approximately 60% of eligible girls in China have already benefited from local government initiatives providing free HPV vaccinations [1][6]. - The program aims to address the rising incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China, particularly among younger women [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The government procurement project for the HPV vaccine has a budget of approximately 425 million yuan, with a total of 15.4465 million doses planned, and a maximum price of 27.5 yuan per dose [10][12]. - Currently, three bivalent HPV vaccines are approved in China, with increasing competition as domestic products enter the market, challenging the previous foreign monopolies [10][12]. - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to structural adjustments within the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Major companies in the HPV vaccine market, such as Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Bio, are facing significant revenue declines, with Wantai's revenue dropping by 23.09% in the first three quarters of 2023 [12][13]. - Watson Bio's revenue also decreased by 19.73% in the same period, indicating a challenging financial environment for leading firms [12][13]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the HPV vaccine market remains strong, with projections estimating the market size to reach 69 billion yuan by 2030 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has announced the inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program, providing free vaccinations for girls born after November 10, 2011, starting from November 10, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: HPV Vaccine Implementation - The HPV vaccine will be administered in two doses, with a six-month interval, targeting girls aged 13 years [1]. - The vaccine's safety and efficacy have been validated, and current production capacity can meet the anticipated demand [1]. - Local health authorities are required to assess the number of eligible girls and their previous vaccination status, as well as to train staff and adapt immunization information systems [1]. Group 2: Cervical Cancer Prevention - Cervical cancer is a common malignancy among women in China, with increasing incidence and mortality rates, particularly among younger women [2]. - The World Health Organization aims for 90% of girls under 15 to be vaccinated by 2030 as part of a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer [2]. - Various provinces in China have already implemented policies to provide free HPV vaccinations or subsidies, laying the groundwork for the national program [2].