如今，带状疱疹疫苗已为大众所熟知。过去几年间，这款疫苗凭借强劲的市场表现，成为国内疫苗领域 的一匹"黑马"。 只不过，由于消费意愿等因素，各疫苗的接种率都不甚乐观，带状疱疹疫苗也不例外。于是，在仅有两 款疫苗的背景下，带状疱疹疫苗的市场竞争也迅速白热化。自今年年中以来，GSK的带状疱疹疫苗欣安 立适，率先推出"买一送一"促销活动并刷屏市场。 所谓"买一送一"，是指首剂疫苗需支付全额疫苗费与接种费，第二剂仅需数十元接种服务费。对于单剂 原价1630元的欣安立适来说，这无疑是直接打响价格战的信号。 要知道，欣安立适在海外市场近乎"无敌"，占据绝对竞争优势，如今却在国内市场主动发起价格战。 这一现象也恰恰印证了"一方水土养一方人"——不同市场的商业环境、消费需求与竞争格局存在本质差 异，成熟的海外商业模型，终究无法直接平移套用。 当然，更直接的原因或许是，欣安立适国内的操盘者智飞生物，亟需用促销手段来打开局面。 意外的价格战选手 5月份以来，欣安立适陆续在全国多个地区开展"买一送一"的促销活动，这是其打响价格战的信号。 从接种流程来看，欣安立适全程需接种两剂。按原定价计算，两剂总费用为3260元（含接种服务费）， ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the expanded indication for GSK's recombinant shingles vaccine, Shingrix (RZV), to include adults aged 18 and above with increased risk of shingles due to known diseases or treatments marks a significant advancement in the prevention of shingles in high-risk populations in China [1][2]. Group 1: Vaccine Approval and Market Impact - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China has officially approved the expanded indication for Shingrix, allowing its use in adults aged 18 and above who are at increased risk of shingles due to immunocompromising conditions [1]. - This approval expands the vaccine's protective coverage from the initial target group of adults aged 50 and above, thereby creating new growth opportunities for GSK in both the global and Chinese vaccine markets [1][5]. - The approval represents a breakthrough in the prevention of shingles for high-risk groups, as it is the first and only shingles vaccine approved for this demographic in China [2][4]. Group 2: Clinical Need and Disease Burden - Shingles, caused by the varicella-zoster virus, poses a significant disease burden, particularly among individuals aged 50 and above, with approximately 1.56 million new cases reported annually in this age group in China [3]. - The risk of shingles increases with age, and certain conditions such as HIV infection and malignancies further elevate this risk, with immunocompromised individuals facing a 2.3 to 4.0 times higher risk compared to the general population [3]. Group 3: Market Potential and Growth - The domestic shingles vaccine market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 3.73 billion yuan in 2022 expected to reach 5.63 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [6]. - GSK's Shingrix vaccine targets a population of approximately 340 million people aged 50 and above in China, with potential market space estimated at around 65 billion yuan if penetration rates reach 10% [6][7]. - The newly approved indication for high-risk adults represents an untapped market segment with substantial growth potential, driven by a large patient base and a strong demand for preventive measures [6][8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Currently, there are two approved shingles vaccines in China: GSK's Shingrix and Baike Biotech's vaccine, which utilize different technological approaches [9]. - Shingrix has established itself as a core growth engine for GSK's vaccine business, demonstrating strong revenue stability with sales of 3.364 billion pounds in 2024 [9][10]. - Continuous investment in research and development is crucial for maintaining the competitive edge of Shingrix, with GSK planning further studies to assess the vaccine's efficacy and safety in high-risk populations [10].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for adults aged 18 and above with increased risk of herpes zoster marks a significant expansion of its market potential in China, providing new growth momentum for GSK's vaccine sales [1][2][4]. Group 1: Vaccine Approval and Market Expansion - GSK's RZV has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for use in adults aged 18 and above who are at increased risk of herpes zoster due to known diseases or treatments that cause immune deficiency [1][2]. - This approval expands the vaccine's protective range, which was initially limited to individuals aged 50 and above since its launch in June 2020 [1][3]. - The vaccine is the first and only one approved in China for this specific high-risk group, addressing a significant clinical gap in prevention [2][4]. Group 2: Disease Burden and Risk Factors - Herpes zoster, commonly known as "shingles," is a significant health burden in China, particularly among individuals aged 50 and above, with approximately 1.56 million new cases reported annually in this age group [2][3]. - The risk of developing herpes zoster increases with age, and certain conditions such as HIV infection and malignancies further elevate this risk, with affected individuals being 2.3 to 4.0 times more likely to contract the disease [3][6]. Group 3: Market Potential and Growth - The domestic herpes zoster vaccine market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 3.73 billion yuan in 2022 expected to reach 5.63 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [5]. - GSK's vaccine targets a population of 340 million people aged 50 and above in China, and with an estimated peak penetration rate of 10%, the market potential could reach approximately 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - The newly approved indication for high-risk adults represents an untapped market segment with substantial growth potential, driven by a large population base and a strong demand for preventive measures [5][6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Currently, there are two approved herpes zoster vaccines in China: GSK's RZV and Baike Biological's "Ganwei," which utilize different technological approaches [8]. - GSK's RZV, as a recombinant vaccine, has established itself as a core growth engine for the company's vaccine business, demonstrating strong revenue stability and market competitiveness [8][9]. - Continuous investment in research and development is crucial for maintaining the competitive edge of RZV, with ongoing studies aimed at assessing its efficacy and safety in high-risk populations [9].

Group 1: Company Performance - Baike Bio reported a revenue of approximately 1.229 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 32.64% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was around 232 million RMB, down 53.67% year-on-year [1] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to reduced sales of the shingles vaccine [1] Group 2: Green Bamboo Bio's Situation - Green Bamboo Bio's stock price fell by 9.09% on May 2, leading to significant sell-offs, with a trading volume of 1.8036 million shares, the highest since 2024 [2] - The company has experienced a drastic decline in liquidity, with 10 months in the past 17 months having a monthly trading volume of less than 200,000 shares [2] - Green Bamboo Bio's market capitalization is currently around 4.1 billion HKD, below the 7 billion HKD threshold required for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index [4] Group 3: Financials of Green Bamboo Bio - Green Bamboo Bio reported a net loss of 168 million RMB for the year, a reduction of 32.5% compared to the previous year's loss of 249 million RMB [4] - The company has not yet commercialized any products, with total revenue remaining at zero [4] - Research and development expenses decreased by 21.7% to 135 million RMB [4] Group 4: Product Development - Green Bamboo Bio's core product, the recombinant shingles vaccine LZ901, has completed Phase III clinical enrollment and submitted a Biologics License Application (BLA) [6] - LZ901 is expected to be the first shingles vaccine with a tetrameric molecular structure, targeting adults aged 50 and above [6] - The vaccine is positioned to compete with GSK's Shingrix, which has seen significant sales growth, reaching 3.446 billion GBP in 2023 [8] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The domestic vaccine industry is facing structural adjustment pressures, with a decline in consumer willingness to receive vaccinations and a significant drop in demand for self-paid vaccines [10] - The competition in the vaccine market is intense, with over 10 manufacturers competing in areas like rabies and influenza vaccines [10] - The market for shingles vaccines is currently less competitive, with only Baike Bio's Ganwei and GSK's Shingrix available, providing an opportunity for LZ901 if it commercializes as expected [10] Group 6: Challenges Ahead - Despite the potential of LZ901, the company may struggle to significantly improve its financial structure and fundamentals due to market education challenges and profit margin pressures [11] - The current vaccination rate for shingles in China is only 0.1%, significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating a need for market education [10]

Core Viewpoint - Changchun High-tech's financial performance has significantly declined, with a 7.55% drop in revenue and a 43.01% plunge in net profit for 2024, marking the company's darkest period in its 28-year history [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Changchun High-tech reported a total revenue of 13.466 billion yuan, down 7.55% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.583 billion yuan, down 43.01% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue decreasing by 5.66% and net profit falling by 44.95% [2]. Subsidiary Performance - Key subsidiaries include Jinsai Pharmaceutical, Baike Biological, Huakang Pharmaceutical, and Gaoxin Real Estate, with Jinsai Pharmaceutical and Baike Biological being the main revenue contributors [4]. - Jinsai Pharmaceutical generated revenue of 10.671 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.73%, and a net profit of 2.678 billion yuan, down 40.67% [4]. - Baike Biological's revenue was 1.229 billion yuan, down 32.64%, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, down 53.67% [4]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the significant drop in profits from Jinsai Pharmaceutical, which accounted for 99.60% of Changchun High-tech's net profit in 2023 [5]. - Jinsai Pharmaceutical's core products include various growth hormone products, with approximately 90% of Changchun High-tech's total revenue coming from this subsidiary [5]. Competitive Landscape - Jinsai Pharmaceutical held an 84.2% market share in the growth hormone industry in 2023, but competition has intensified due to the impact of centralized procurement [6]. - The introduction of centralized procurement for short-acting water injections in 2024 is expected to further affect the company's performance [7]. Vaccine Performance - Baike Biological's shingles vaccine initially showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 70.30% in 2023, but faced a significant decline in 2024, with revenue dropping by 32.64% [8]. - The shingles vaccine revenue fell to 251 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 71.54%, with sales volume down by 69.8% [8].

Core Insights - The core issue for the company is the significant decline in sales of the shingles vaccine, which has led to a substantial drop in overall performance for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.229 billion yuan and 232 million yuan, representing declines of 32.64% and 53.67% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 162 million yuan and 1.0643 million yuan, with declines of 39.96% and 98.24% respectively [1] Vaccine Sales Analysis - The shingles vaccine generated revenue of 251 million yuan in 2024, a significant drop of 71.54% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 96.08% [2] - Production of the shingles vaccine was 898,600 doses, but only 200,400 doses were sold, leading to a 79.97% increase in inventory [2] - The decline in sales is attributed to low public awareness of the disease and vaccine, resulting in decreased market demand [2] Market Challenges - The company faces challenges from declining birth rates, price adjustments of similar products, and increased competition from new market entrants [3] - Despite slight revenue increases from chickenpox and nasal flu vaccines, the overall market capacity is shrinking due to lower birth rates [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to expand its adult vaccine market and is investing in R&D for new products, including Alzheimer's therapeutic vaccines and other vaccines [3] - In 2024, R&D investment was 156 million yuan, accounting for 12.7% of revenue [3] Market Potential - The domestic shingles vaccine market is currently characterized by limited competition, with only GSK's Shingrix and the company's shingles vaccine approved for sale [4][5] - The market penetration for shingles vaccines among individuals over 50 is low, indicating significant growth potential as public awareness increases [6][7]