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纸浆数据日报-20250604
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5238, down 1.32% day - on - day and 1.17% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5414, down 1.42% day - on - day and up 1.65% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5222, down 1.36% day - on - day and 1.47% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.80% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5400, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.92% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Import costs decreased. For example, Chilean Silver Star's import cost decreased from 6289 to 6046, a 3.87% decline [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The shipment of pulp to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, up 20.70% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.1 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase. The inventory showed a slight accumulation trend [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid procurement. Among the main finished paper products, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, while the output of other paper types remained stable [1]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: The Russian Needle basis was - 14, with a quantile level of 0.67; the Silver Star basis was 786, with a quantile level of 0.958 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 154, with a quantile level of 0.808; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 437, with a quantile level of 0.219 [1].
纸浆数据日报-20250523
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:45
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current macro - level positive factors have not yet been reflected in the demand for finished paper, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, 2025, SP2601 was 5312, down 0.45% day - on - day and 0.08% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5426, up 0.11% day - on - day and 0.74% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5316, down 0.41% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.79% week - on - week; Knit Coniferous was 5450, unchanged; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged and down 1.18% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, down 3.90% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, down 11.11% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, down 4.62% month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month compared to March; broad - leaf pulp import volume was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month compared to March [1]. - **Domestic Output**: On May 22, 2025, broad - leaf pulp domestic output was 20 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 20 tons [1]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In March 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1813, up 20.70% compared to February [1]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, pulp port inventory was 215.7 tons, down 4.1 tons from the previous period, a 1.9% decline [1]. - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On May 22, 2025, it was 26.10 tons [1]. Demand - **Finished Paper Output**: On May 22, 2025, double - offset paper output was 20.03 tons; coated paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 27.60 tons; white cardboard was 28.30 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 22, 2025, Russian coniferous basis was 24, with a quantile level of 0.761; Silver Star basis was 824, with a quantile level of 0.968 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On May 22, 2025, coniferous pulp Silver Star import profit was 204, with a quantile level of 0.84; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 387, with a quantile level of 0.236 [1]. Summary of Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company announced May 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star at 740 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star had no supply in May and June, with partial supply expected to resume in July; natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton [1]. - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price - increase letters, and the implementation is to be determined; finished paper output remained stable [1]. - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 215.7 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1].