ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 LL - 500 - 12 - 12 / E 突期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要 市 市 官 方 网 站 lle 打 线 需 有 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2025/11/19 总结 2数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心。 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年11月18日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5408 | -1.21% | -1.39% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5550 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2512 | 4872 | -0.53% | 0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5400 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5410 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 7, 2025, SP2601 was 5394 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 3.49%; SP2511 was 4872 with a daily decrease of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2605 was 5398 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.62% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% from August; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% from August. The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of offset paper on November 6, 2025, was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons. White cardboard showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, while cultural paper had frequent price - increase letters, but whether they can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand was still weak [5][10]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 7, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 228 with a quantile level of 0.905; Silver Star was 628 with a quantile level of 0.872 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On November 7, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not significantly improved, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp contract, and the futures price may be priced according to the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5224, down 0.34% day - on - day and 0.50% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4846, up 0.21% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5264, down 0.23% day - on - day and 0.49% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5100, unchanged; and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged [6]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars, down 2.86% month - on - month; the quote of a certain product type was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; and the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; and the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6]. 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, up 0.3% month - on - month, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend [11]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, and paper prices have not rebounded significantly. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [11]. 3. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 254, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 654, with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59, with a quantile level of 0.512; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.556 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market showed mixed trends on August 25, 2025, with some contracts rising day - on - day but falling week - on - week. The demand for paper products is stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices. The inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to do a reverse spread between the 11 - contract and the 1 - contract [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5402, up 0.71% day - on - day and down 1.35% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5136, up 0.55% day - on - day and down 2.21% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5088, up 0.59% day - on - day and down 2.15% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On August 25, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5800, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.85% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5180, up 0.58% day - on - day and down 2.26% week - on - week; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.19% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Japanese - Western - American was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month. The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 213.2 tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream paper pulp ports increased by 2.5% month - on - month [1] - **Demand - side**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed minor fluctuations from July to August 2025 [1] Paper Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On August 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 44, with a quantile level of 0.785; the Silver Star basis was 664, with a quantile level of 0.895 [1] - **Import Profit**: On August 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 84, with a quantile level of 0.477; that of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 32, with a quantile level of 0.612 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with reduced supply [1] - **Demand - side**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, but the prices of mainstream paper products have not stopped falling, which is negative for pulp prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main production of finished paper decreased this week, and the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216300 tons, a decrease of 45000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0%, showing a de - stocking trend [1] - After the suspension of the entry of needles into the warehouse, it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On June 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5264, a daily decrease of 0.68% and a weekly decrease of 0.04%; SP2507 was 5060, unchanged daily and a weekly decrease of 3.62%; SP2509 was 5066, a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly decrease of 3.58% [1] - Spot prices: On June 26, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5950, unchanged daily and a weekly decrease of 1.65%; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged daily and a weekly decrease of 2.48%; the price of broad - leaf pulp Golden was 4050, unchanged daily and a weekly decrease of 1.22% [1] - Outer - disk quotes and import costs: The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus in June 2025 were 740, 560, and 620 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged month - on - month; the corresponding import costs were also unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 758000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1199000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.44% [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 13.53 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp in late June 2025 showed certain fluctuations [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 24600 tons [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased in the week of June 2025 [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On June 26, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 54, with a quantile level of 0.809; the basis of Silver Star was 884, with a quantile level of 0.975 [1] - On June 26, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 96, with a quantile level of 0.46; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 537, with a quantile level of 0.189 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pulp shows a complex situation. The Arauco company in Chile has a stable price for coniferous pulp in June, and the supply of broad - leaf pulp is expected to partially resume in July. The shipment volume of pulp to China has decreased year - on - year in April 2025. The demand side is weak as the output of major finished papers has declined this week, and the low price of finished papers provides weak support for pulp. The inventory has shown a narrow - range accumulation trend as of June 19, 2025. The strategy is to conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread after the suspension of Burundi needle warehousing [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5166, down 1.90% day - on - day and 0.69% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5124, down 2.40% day - on - day and 3.10% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5120, down 2.55% day - on - day and 1.50% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6050, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.82% week - on - week; Knitted coniferous pulp was 5250, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.94% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4100, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were all unchanged month - on - month. Import costs of these pulps were also unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Output**: The domestic output of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated from May 8 to June 19, 2025 [1] Inventory - **Pulp Port Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, it was 220.8 tons, up 2.3 tons from the previous period, a 1.1% increase [1] - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, it was 23.53 tons, showing a downward trend compared to previous periods [1] Demand - **Finished Paper Output**: From May 8 to June 19, 2025, the output of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard all showed fluctuations, and the output of major finished papers decreased this week [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 130 with a quantile level of 0.87; the Silver Star basis was 930 with a quantile level of 0.98 [1] - **Import Profit**: On June 20, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star had a quantile level of 0.62; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 487 with a quantile level of 0.205 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is bearish overall due to weakened cost support from lower pulp foreign quotes and weak terminal demand. A short - term bearish view is recommended, or a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 6, 2025, SP2505 was 5064, down 1.02% day - on - day and 7.66% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5038, down 1.64% day - on - day and 6.53% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5000, down 1.30% day - on - day and 6.37% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.36% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.59% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.60% week - on - week [1]. - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In March 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and broadleaf pulp imports were 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in February 2025 was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons, up 1.8% from the previous period; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 164 with a quantile level of 0.881; the Silver Star basis was 1164 with a quantile level of 0.999 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 89 with a quantile level of 0.471; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 1004 with a quantile level of 0.057 [1].