本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 昨天晚上最大的消息来自美国央行——美联储。在最新一次的议息会议上，美联储最终宣布不降息。这 一决定比较符合市场预期，所以大家看到几大股市基本上都接受得比较坦然，没有出现大的波动。 前段时间，美国资产出现了股债汇"三杀"的局面。随之而来的问题是：美国央行有没有可能在这个时候 下场救市呢？有没有可能通过降息或者重新下场购买国债来稳定市场呢？但从目前来看，美联储还是保 持了一贯的冷静态度，并没有特别大地把这张"牌"打出去。于是，这张"牌"又再次回到了美国总统特朗 普手里。如果美联储现在不动的话，那么"解铃还须系铃人"，稳定美国资本市场的任务，一部分又交给 了特朗普。 所以昨天晚上，特朗普也在他的社交媒体上发了一条消息，说再过一段时间，也就是在今天晚上10点 （美国时间早晨10点），会开一个新闻发布会，宣布一个重大的好消息——跟一个大国达成了贸易协 定。目前来猜测，最有可能的国家就是英国。因为之前有媒体报道，英国在跟美国勾兑一些贸易政策的 时候，提出了一些比较巧妙的做法。比如，对于英国产的钢铁和汽车，设定一个配额，在这个配额范围 之内实行低关税，而超出这个配额的部分可以象征性 ...

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]