Company Operations & Strategy - Company faced cross-currency management challenges due to mining sector performance and international trade uncertainty [1] - Company's origins trace back to the 1940s, listed on TSX in 2006, and underwent a major transformation starting in 2017 with new assets, balance sheet, and team [5][6] - Company planned NASDAQ public offering for over two years, driven by growth plan and investor interest [6][7] - Company aimed to increase daily trading volume, raise capital, and access larger US investors through NASDAQ listing [8] Financial Performance & Growth - Company grew from a market size of $0.5 billion to $2 billion [8] Production & Revenue - Gold accounts for approximately 80% of the company's revenues, while copper contributes around 20% [3] - Copper concentrate produced in New Mexico is sold domestically to Trafigura for export [4] - Gold exports from Brazil are directed to Europe and Canada [4] Geographic Exposure - In the previous year, Mexico and Honduras each accounted for approximately 30% of operations, with Brazil contributing the remaining 40% [2] - Future growth projects include two in Brazil and one in Guatemala, with increased exposure to gold [2]

Industry Concerns Regarding Tariffs - Potential tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper could hinder investments in AI infrastructure due to increased costs [1] - The imposition of tariffs aims to level the playing field, encouraging domestic steel production [4] National Security and Domestic Production - Domestic steel production is crucial for national security, enabling the construction of ships and missiles [3][4] - The ability to mine raw materials like iron ore and copper domestically is essential [5] Trade Practices and Government Subsidies - Concerns exist about foreign countries, such as China, Japan, and Korea, subsidizing their steel industries, leading to the dumping of steel and harming domestic companies [3] - Tariffs are proposed to counteract government subsidies provided to foreign steel companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in copper prices and affect global supply dynamics [3]. Macro Analysis - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may halt the arbitrage of copper inventory flowing to the U.S. since February 2025 [3]. - The SHFE copper closing price was 78,430 CNY/ton, down 1.63% from July 4, while LME copper closed at 9,663 USD/ton, down 1.92% [3]. Inventory Overview - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [4]. - As of July 11, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Insights - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 836 CNY/ton this week [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Data - The TC spot price remained around -43 USD/ton, indicating low levels not seen since September 2007 [6]. - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6]. Demand Analysis - Cable operating rates increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [7]. - Air conditioning production is expected to slow down, with year-on-year declines projected for July to September [7]. Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.6% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 17.6% [8]. - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, which is at the 48th percentile since 1995 [8].

Core Insights - Copper prices have reached new record highs, driven by the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to increased demand and supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs [1][4] - Record highs in copper prices indicate a significant shift in market dynamics, reflecting broader economic trends [1][4] Group 2: Market Implications - The rise in copper prices may influence various sectors, particularly construction and manufacturing, which rely heavily on copper [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring these price changes as they could signal potential investment opportunities in related industries [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive stance on gold and copper, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7][10]. Core Insights - Copper is currently experiencing historical backwardation, with LME copper spot prices surpassing USD 10,000 per ton, driven by inventory depletion and redirection of shipments to the US [2]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, which is expected to support cobalt prices in the near term [3][4]. - Aluminium output reached a new monthly high in May, supported by strong demand and improved smelter margins [5]. - Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold, with expectations for continued increases in official gold reserves over the next year [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper spot prices exceeded USD 10,000/t, with a backwardation of over USD 300/t for 3-month futures [2]. - Year-to-date inventory at LME has decreased by 180,000 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 115,000 tons due to tariff concerns [2]. - Ivanhoe has reduced its 2025 copper production guidance by 28% [2]. Cobalt - DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended by three months, impacting supply and supporting price stability [3]. - Cobalt prices surged over 60% following the initial ban and are expected to remain strong due to continued restrictions [3]. Aluminium - Aluminium production in May rose approximately 5% year-on-year to 3.83 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 4% [5]. - China's aluminium inventory dropped by around 400,000 tons over the past three months, indicating robust downstream demand [5]. Gold - Central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tons of gold annually, significantly higher than the average of 400-500 tons in the past decade [6]. - A survey indicates that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6]. Market Sentiment - Improved US-China trade talks have positively influenced market sentiment, particularly for base metals [10]. - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the report suggests a preference for gold and copper investments among China materials [10].

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing Zacks Premium for investors to enhance their stock market strategies and confidence [1] Zacks Style Scores - Zacks Style Scores are indicators designed to help investors select stocks with the highest potential to outperform the market within a 30-day timeframe [2] - Stocks are rated from A to F based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, with A being the highest score [2] Value Score - The Value Style Score focuses on identifying undervalued stocks using financial ratios such as P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, and Price/Cash Flow [3] Growth Score - The Growth Style Score assesses a company's future growth potential by analyzing projected and historical earnings, sales, and cash flow [4] Momentum Score - The Momentum Style Score is based on price trends and earnings outlook changes, helping investors identify optimal times to invest in high-momentum stocks [5] VGM Score - The VGM Score combines Value, Growth, and Momentum Scores, providing a comprehensive evaluation of stocks based on their weighted styles [6] Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that uses earnings estimate revisions to assist investors in building successful portfolios [7] - Stocks rated 1 (Strong Buy) have historically achieved an average annual return of +25.41% since 1988, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [8] Stock Selection Strategy - Investors are encouraged to select stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 or 2 and Style Scores of A or B to maximize potential success [9] - The direction of earnings estimate revisions is crucial; stocks with lower ranks but high Style Scores may still face downward price pressure [10] Company Spotlight: Southern Copper Corporation - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is engaged in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals across several countries [11] - SCCO holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a VGM Score of B, indicating moderate potential [11] - The company is projected to experience a 6% year-over-year earnings growth for the current fiscal year, with positive earnings estimate revisions [12] - SCCO has an average earnings surprise of 3.7%, making it a noteworthy option for growth investors [12]

Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities At Any Rate: Aluminum's premium paralysis Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It ...

据人民日报，当地时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。外贸环境依然难言稳定，市场持续将不确定性纳入考虑当 中。 数据方面，美国5月CPI同比增2.4%，核心CPI环比增0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期；美国5月PPI与核心PPI均环比温和增长0.1%、低于预期，核心PPI增速创 近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。5月美国PPI整体涨幅依然温和，关税尚未对消费者和企业造成更高的价格压力。然而美国企业的利润率持续承 压，表明企业正在自行消化关税成本。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，9月份前降息的可能性为75%。美国宏观经济数据对美 元表现产生明显影响，铜价也因此受到金融属性干扰。 全球交易所库存情况来看：截至6月16日，LME铜库存较6月9日减少12850吨至10.76万吨，前期为关税政策而提前配置的铜库存已经悉数耗尽，LME市场库 存偏紧格局正在形成当中；上期所铜库存减少5461吨至10.19万吨，目前国内精炼铜显性 ...