Industry Overview - The U.S. liquor industry is experiencing significant challenges, including a decline in alcohol consumption among Americans, with only 54% of U.S. adults reporting they consume alcohol, marking the lowest level in Gallup's nearly 90-year trend [1][2] - There is a growing perception that moderate alcohol consumption is detrimental to health, which has become the majority view for the first time [1] Consumption Trends - Historical data shows that from 1997 to 2023, at least 60% of Americans reported drinking alcohol, but this figure has decreased to 62% in 2023 and further to 58% in 2024, ultimately reaching 54% [2] - The rate of alcohol consumption has been below 60% fewer than 10 times since 1939, with notable lows recorded in 1939 and 1958 [2] Export Challenges - U.S. distilled spirits exports fell by 9% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, attributed to ongoing trade tensions, particularly following President Trump's tariffs [3] - Exports to Canada saw a dramatic decline of 85%, dropping below $10 million, while U.S. spirits sales in Canada decreased by 68% in April 2025 [4] - Exports to the EU, the largest market for U.S. spirits, fell by 12% to $290.3 million, with exports to the UK and Japan also experiencing significant declines of 29% and 23%, respectively [4] Company-Specific Issues - The combination of declining consumption and export challenges has led to multiple bankruptcies within the U.S. liquor industry, including A.M. Scott Distillery, which has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [5] - A.M. Scott Distillery has faced additional difficulties due to legal issues involving its founder, Anthony Michael Scott, who is facing felony charges [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the international expansion of Chinese liquor, particularly baijiu, is driven by domestic market challenges and increasing overseas opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The "Qianjiu Going Global" initiative in Guizhou aims to support local enterprises in expanding into international markets, highlighting a strategic focus on overseas growth [1][2]. - Baijiu exports reached $704 million (approximately 4.997 billion RMB) in the first three quarters of this year, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase, with export volume growing by 4.9% to 12.15 million liters [1][2]. - The domestic baijiu market is experiencing a "storage/shrinkage game" and deep adjustments, prompting companies to seek opportunities abroad [3]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Major companies like Kweichow Moutai reported export revenues of approximately 3.893 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of about 11.8%, capturing around 78% of the domestic baijiu export market [2]. - Moutai aims to become an international company by 2035, developing a "T-shaped" product structure for overseas markets and enhancing brand influence through unique cultural marketing events [2]. - Other leading baijiu brands are also pursuing international strategies, with Wuliangye collaborating with visa centers globally and Luzhou Laojiao leveraging international sports events for brand promotion [2]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - The primary target for baijiu exports remains the Chinese diaspora, although there is a growing interest among foreign consumers, with some actively seeking to learn about baijiu culture [5]. - A report indicates that 63.9% of baijiu companies are either expanding or planning to expand into overseas markets, primarily focusing on the Asia-Pacific region [3][4]. - The top five export destinations for baijiu include Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, the United States, and Japan, indicating a concentration on regions with significant Chinese populations [4]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite growth in export figures, challenges such as limited consumer awareness, cultural barriers, and regulatory hurdles remain significant for the internationalization of baijiu [4]. - Moutai acknowledges the need for a strategic approach to product development and marketing to overcome these challenges, particularly in non-Chinese markets [4]. - The industry recognizes that the overseas market for baijiu is still in its early stages, requiring a methodical approach to market development [4].

Core Insights - Sales of high-end tequila, particularly brands like Don Julio and Casamigos, have softened as consumers are opting for less expensive alternatives amid economic concerns [1][5][6] - The spirits industry is witnessing a significant decline in the sales of bottles priced at $100 or more, with an 18% drop reported in the last three months [3][8] - Consumers are increasingly "trading down" to more affordable options, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior due to economic pressures rather than health concerns [4][6][10] Industry Trends - The demand for premium spirits has decreased, with consumers prioritizing budget-friendly options as inflation and job market uncertainties loom [2][4] - Diageo's "super premium" tequila brands have experienced weakened sales, reflecting a broader trend in the spirits market [5][6] - The competitive landscape of the tequila category has intensified, leading consumers to consider alternatives like Astral, which is priced lower than traditional high-end brands [6][8]

4 December 2025 | 6:51AM HKT Equity Research Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ): Investor Meeting: More dedicated product/channel reforms for domestic resilience and overseas We hosted Wuliangye mgmt for an investor meeting in Shenzhen on Dec 3rd. The Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Wuyou Liquor Industry is facing significant operational challenges, including being listed as an executed party due to a debt of approximately 62.55 million yuan, which reflects the company's aggressive expansion strategy and misjudgment of market trends [4][6][7]. Group 1: Company Situation - Guizhou Wuyou Liquor Industry was recently listed as an executed party with a total execution amount of about 62.55 million yuan, indicating potential financial distress [6]. - The founder, Yuan Mingquan, acknowledged the company's aggressive expansion and misjudgment of market trends, which contributed to its current difficulties [7][16]. - The company has halted all non-core expansions and investments, entering a "wartime state" focused on survival and stabilizing its operations [7][16]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with many small to medium-sized enterprises facing operational issues, as seen with other companies like Sichuan Xiantan Liquor and Shandong Bandaojing [8][10]. - The overall production capacity of Chinese liquor is projected to decline by 13.3% in 2024, marking the first decrease in nearly six years, which adds pressure on mid-sized brands [16]. - Many local liquor manufacturers have reduced production by 40% to 60% this year, reflecting the challenging market environment [16].

Core Points - The company held its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on November 27, 2025, with no resolutions being rejected [2] - The meeting was conducted in compliance with the Company Law and the company's articles of association, utilizing both on-site and online voting methods [2][3] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting was chaired by the company's chairman, Mr. Pu Jizhou, and attended by all current directors and supervisors [3] - The meeting took place at the company's art center conference room [2] Group 2: Resolutions Passed - A resolution to reduce registered capital, abolish the supervisory board, increase the number of board seats, and amend the company's articles of association was approved [4] - Multiple governance-related resolutions were passed, including amendments to the rules for shareholder meetings, board meetings, independent director systems, and management of related party transactions [5][6] Group 3: Legal Verification - The meeting was witnessed by lawyers from Guohao Law Firm (Chengdu), confirming that the meeting's procedures and resolutions complied with legal requirements [7]

Summary of China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The spirits industry is currently facing challenges due to weakening demand influenced by anti-extravagance policies and a shift in the Mid-Autumn festival calendar, leading to a tough quarter for many companies in Q3 2025 [1][1][1]. - Companies are adopting a cautious outlook for the upcoming Chinese New Year (CNY) sales and earnings performance, primarily due to a high base effect and lingering policy impacts, resulting in low visibility on demand recovery [1][1][1]. Company-Specific Insights Kweichow Moutai - Moutai is pursuing growth targets mainly through wholesale channels, reporting a 14% year-over-year increase in sales for Q3 2025, despite a 15% decline in direct sales [1][1][1]. - The company is likely to adjust its growth targets for 2026 to be more rational due to pressures on wholesale prices from competitors [1][1][1]. Wuliangye - Wuliangye anticipates back-ended growth in 2026, with the first half of the year facing headwinds from a high comparative base [1][1][1]. - The wholesale price of Common Wuliangye has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of RMB 5 to RMB 855 per bottle [2][2][2]. Luzhou Laojiao - Laojiao is also expected to maintain stringent shipment controls, focusing on channel health and pricing strategies into the first half of 2026 [1][1][1]. Feitian Moutai - The wholesale price of Original case Feitian Moutai has decreased by RMB 25 to RMB 1,675, while unpacked Feitian Moutai's price dropped by RMB 40 to RMB 1,640 [2][2][2]. - Various SKUs of Moutai have seen price reductions ranging from RMB 60 to RMB 120 per bottle [2][2][2]. Guojiao 1573 - The wholesale price for Guojiao 1573 has remained stable at RMB 850 per bottle, indicating a lack of significant price movement in the current market [2][2][2]. Market Dynamics - The spirits market is characterized by stringent shipment controls among leading premium brands, with a focus on maintaining channel health and pricing systems [1][1][1]. - The overall sentiment in the spirits industry remains cautious, with companies preparing for potential challenges in the upcoming quarters due to regulatory impacts and market conditions [1][1][1]. Performance Metrics - The stock performance of select spirits companies shows mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai and ZJLD being relatively better performers, while others like Jiangsu Yanghe and Jiugui Liquor have faced significant declines [35][35][35]. Key Risks - Potential risks include regulatory changes, such as consumption tax hikes, and a slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery, which could impact the spirits market significantly [41][41][41]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the spirits industry and specific company performances, highlighting the cautious outlook and market dynamics as of Q3 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, while the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing strong growth, with products like Guo Fen from Shanxi Fenjiu showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in consumer preferences from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" [1][2]. Industry Overview - The market size of light bottle liquor has grown from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.8% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies showing growth, with a reported revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [1][2]. Product Contribution - The Guo Fen product line has been a significant contributor to Shanxi Fenjiu's growth, with analysts noting that it achieved over 10% growth in the first three quarters, contrasting with the declining sales of many other products [2][3]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has attracted numerous companies to increase their investments in this segment, with brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao launching new products aimed at capturing market share [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Despite overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands. Traditional brands like Niulanshan are facing significant challenges, with reported revenue declines of nearly 20% year-on-year [4][5]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer behavior is evident, with younger consumers moving from luxury packaging to a focus on quality and cost-effectiveness, prompting companies to adapt their strategies to meet the demand for high-value products [3][6]. Future Outlook - The light bottle liquor segment is expected to continue expanding, but competition is intensifying, leading to a clear differentiation among brands. Companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions are likely to thrive [6][7].

Company Actions - Kweichow Moutai, once the largest listed company in China, has announced another share buyback plan [1] - The buyback is intended to lift its flagging stock price [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Liquor Industry (3Q25 Results) Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese liquor industry, particularly major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Lao Jiao, Fen Wine, Gujing, and Yanghe [1][7]. Key Financial Results - **Kweichow Moutai**: Total sales remained flat year-over-year (0% change), with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 74.1% [3][7]. - **Wuliangye**: Reported a significant sales decrease of 53% year-over-year, with a GPM of 72.5% [3][7]. - **Luzhou Lao Jiao**: Sales decreased by 8%, with a GPM of 58.1% [3][7]. - **Fen Wine**: Sales increased by 4%, with a GPM of 62.0% [3][7]. - **Gujing**: Experienced a 52% decrease in sales, with a GPM of 33.7% [3][7]. - **Yanghe**: Sales decreased by 29%, with a GPM of 43.5% [3][7]. Profitability Metrics - **Operating Profit**: - Kweichow Moutai: Rmb 25.888 billion, up 2% year-over-year. - Wuliangye: Operating profit down 74% [3][7]. - **Net Profit**: - Kweichow Moutai: Rmb 19.224 billion, flat year-over-year. - Wuliangye: Net profit down 66% [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The industry has faced deteriorating demand since 2024, which is now reflected in the financials of major players [7]. - Companies are prioritizing supply and inventory management due to ongoing demand pressure, leading to a focus on destocking [7]. - A narrower gap between reported numbers and retail demand is expected in the coming quarters, although a turnaround may take time [7]. Dividend Announcements - Wuliangye announced a mid-year dividend plan of Rmb 10 billion, translating to Rmb 2.578 per share, indicating a yield of 2.2% as of October 30, 2025 [7]. Pricing Trends - Industry wholesale prices have trended lower across brands, with a slower payment pace from distributors year-over-year [7]. Analyst Reactions - Analysts noted that most major liquor companies recorded significant sales and earnings decreases for 3Q25, with expectations of declines between 30-50% [7]. - Revisions to earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were made for several companies, indicating a cautious outlook for the next 12 months [9]. Conclusion - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing significant challenges, with major companies reporting steep declines in sales and profits. The focus on destocking and inventory management reflects the ongoing demand pressures, and while some companies are maintaining dividends, the overall sentiment remains cautious as the market adjusts to these dynamics [7][9].