汇编 | 甘雅婷 2025年末，白酒行业在经历年内政策冲击与价格快速调整后，步入周期磨底关键阶段。综合近期主流券商研判，市场共识在于：尽管终端需求仍显疲弱， 但渠道库存、企业报表压力已进入加速出清阶段，以龙头酒企为主导的市场化调整方案正逐步落地，为行业构筑新的平衡点。 市场关注点正从"何时见底"转向"如何修复"，分化与结构优化将成为下一阶段的主旋律。 年度压力加速出清 底部支撑日益坚实 多家机构认为，行业最剧烈的调整阶段可能已经过去，当前正处在构建新均衡的磨底期。 目前，价格与库存呈现初步企稳迹象。主要产品批价在经历普遍下行后，下行斜率放缓。国信证券观察到，"区域龙头主品批价在双节后出现企稳趋势"。 同时，渠道库存压力高点已现，国信证券提到"库存在25Q3触达周期高点后环比减少"。这一变化表明，通过酒企主动控货与市场需求自发调节，供需失 衡的矛盾正得到初步缓解。 同时，酒企的业绩压力加速释放，为修复创造条件。第三季度成为上市公司业绩压力的集中释放期。国信证券指出，以"五粮液、古井贡酒为代表的公司 降低增长要求，三季报业绩大幅下滑，逐步释放渠道压力"。开源证券亦认为，"当前白酒行业基本面已接近底部"。业绩的"深 ...

飞天茅台的"底"到了吗？ 12月12日，白酒行业迎来历史性一刻，第三方数据显示，53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发报价跌至1485元/瓶，原箱报价1495元/瓶，较前一日双双下跌15 元，散瓶批发价与年初2200元左右的价格相比，跌幅甚至超30%。 这是贵州茅台（600519）2018年将飞天茅台指导价升至1499元以来，首次出现批发价低于指导价。过去很长时间，飞天茅台一直维持高溢价水平，2021年 市场价一度飙升至3500元以上。 左宇 摄 为提振投资者信心，贵州茅台频频回购分红。 11月，公司宣布斥资15亿元—30亿元用于股份回购。昨晚，公司公告将派发超300亿元中期分红，每股派发23.957元（含税）。 今年白酒行业面临周期调整、政策影响、消费需求疲软等多重挑战，飞天茅台价格下坡走势显著。 6月，散瓶飞天批发价相继失守2000元、1900元、1800元关卡；近一个月又相继跌破1700元、1600元。 从时间节点来看，电商大促成为其价格破位的关键因素。 "双十一"期间，飞天茅台在部分店铺补贴后到手价已跌破1499元，引发市场对价格体系的讨论，也成为贵州茅台管理层的关注重点。 贵州茅台多次提示消费者在正规渠道 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the price of Moutai liquor reflect broader challenges and opportunities within the Chinese liquor industry, particularly as the new chairman, Chen Hua, outlines strategies for navigating these changes and maintaining growth amidst market adjustments [1][3][4]. Price Movement - On November 29, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai increased by 15 yuan, reaching 1595 yuan per bottle for original boxes and 1580 yuan for loose bottles, following a previous drop to 1565 yuan [1][2]. Leadership and Strategy - Chen Hua, newly appointed chairman, presented a detailed analysis of the current liquor industry landscape and Moutai's future direction during the recent shareholders' meeting, receiving overwhelming support from shareholders [3][4]. - The management emphasizes Moutai's resilience and ability to navigate cyclical challenges, asserting that the brand is better positioned than ever to adapt and seize new opportunities [3][11]. Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is currently facing high inventory levels, price inversions, and slowing growth rates, indicating a shift towards a "stock competition" era [9][10]. - Chen Hua acknowledges the ongoing challenges but believes that Moutai's opportunities outweigh these difficulties, supported by a strong domestic market and the cultural significance of liquor [9][10]. Future Outlook - Moutai aims to leverage its brand strength, quality, and cultural heritage to adapt to market changes and pursue innovation and transformation [4][10]. - The company plans to maintain a focus on quality over quantity, adhering to the principle of prioritizing quality in production and sales strategies [13][14]. Stakeholder Engagement - The recent shareholders' meeting addressed various stakeholder concerns, including a commitment to share buybacks and profit distribution, with plans to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan [15]. - Moutai's management is committed to achieving a "Pareto optimal" state, ensuring that the interests of consumers, employees, investors, and partners are balanced and aligned [13][15]. Production and Sales Strategy - The company is cautious about its production capacity and sales rhythm, emphasizing the importance of ecological sustainability and skilled craftsmanship in its production processes [17][19]. - Moutai's management is open to e-commerce channels but aims to maintain price stability and brand integrity while fostering communication with these platforms [21]. Youth Engagement - Moutai recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers but emphasizes a nuanced approach, distinguishing between different age groups and their unique consumption characteristics [23][24]. - The company aims to innovate its brand messaging and content to resonate with younger audiences while respecting their diverse values and lifestyles [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of Yanghe Co., Ltd. in the first half of the year, despite the challenges faced by the liquor industry, emphasizing the company's focus on quality and brand strength [1] Financial Performance - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 14.796 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan for the first half of the year [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 76.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on its core products and key markets, particularly in Jiangsu province, where it generated 7.121 billion yuan in revenue [1] - Yanghe has increased its number of distributors in the domestic market to 3,010, up from the beginning of the year, while the number of distributors outside the province stands at 5,599 [1] Marketing and Product Development - Yanghe launched the seventh generation of its "Sea Blue" product and introduced a high-value "Yanghe Daqu" light bottle wine, achieving over 10,000 pre-sales within 48 hours [1] - The company is leveraging "sports marketing + cultural IP" collaborations to enhance brand recognition [1] Industry Outlook - Analysts believe that while the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, the long-term value of Yanghe Co., Ltd. remains intact [2] - The company is expected to stabilize its operations in the domestic market while gradually improving its performance in the provincial markets [2] - Yanghe's strong brand and channel network, along with its production capacity, are seen as key competitive advantages for future growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges that the liquor industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, facing challenges such as changing consumer habits and an unsuitable business model, leading to pressure on all liquor enterprises [2][3]. Industry and Company Performance - The liquor industry is in a period of cyclical adjustment, with channel inventory under pressure and growth rates significantly slowing down, indicating a shift to a stock competition era [3]. - The company's third-quarter revenue and net profit growth rates are the lowest since 2015, with both metrics showing less than 1% growth in the third quarter [3][4]. - The company has reduced market supply to maintain market resilience and stability, resulting in a noticeable recovery in terminal sales since August [4]. Channel Management and Inventory - The company is actively working to alleviate pressure on channel partners to maintain a healthy channel ecosystem, which is crucial for market development [3][4]. - The channel inventory ratio for the flagship product, Feitian Moutai, is currently at a healthy level, while other series products are also showing a declining inventory ratio [6]. E-commerce and Pricing Strategy - The company is addressing low-price promotions on e-commerce platforms, which have led to concerns about brand reputation and pricing integrity [5]. - Efforts are being made to establish a green disposal channel for counterfeit and infringement information with major online platforms [5]. Market Strategy and Internationalization - The company is committed to a three-step internationalization strategy, focusing on maintaining market health and stability while expanding its international presence [4][9]. - A significant investment of approximately 15.516 billion yuan is planned for the "14th Five-Year" technical transformation project to enhance production capacity [9]. Shareholder Value and Market Management - The company is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, emphasizing value management through cash dividends, share buybacks, and enhanced information disclosure [7][8]. - A share buyback plan has been announced, with a total amount between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing shareholder value [8]. Industry Outlook - The current industry adjustment presents both challenges and opportunities for innovation and transformation, with the company aiming to adapt to market demands and promote higher quality development [10].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a revenue of 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%, and a net profit of 19.224 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [1][2] - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 128.454 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.627 billion yuan, which is a 6.25% increase year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 39.064 billion yuan, up 0.56% year-on-year [2] - Q3 net profit: 19.224 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [2] - Year-to-date revenue: 128.454 billion yuan, up 6.36% year-on-year [2] - Year-to-date net profit: 64.627 billion yuan, up 6.25% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from Moutai liquor for the first three quarters: 110.514 billion yuan; revenue from series liquor: 17.884 billion yuan [2] Industry Context - Compared to other liquor companies that reported declines in Q3, Moutai is one of the few maintaining positive growth [4] - Historical performance shows that Moutai's current results are better than during the last industry downturn in 2014, when revenues and net profits fell [4] Management Insights - Moutai's management emphasizes the company's ability to navigate through industry cycles, supported by market research conducted across 16 provinces [5] - The management believes that the market for Moutai liquor is showing stable and positive growth, with improved sales performance since September [5] Investment Perspective - Fund manager Zhang Kun has increased holdings in Moutai, citing the long-term potential of China's consumer market and the current low valuation as providing a safety margin [6]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Zhang Deqin as chairman of Kweichow Moutai and the appointment of Chen Hua as his successor highlight ongoing leadership changes within the company, raising questions about the company's strategic direction amid economic adjustments in the liquor industry [1][2][3]. Company Leadership Changes - Zhang Deqin submitted his resignation on October 27, 2025, after a brief tenure of approximately one and a half years since his return in April 2024 [1][3]. - Chen Hua, previously involved in the energy sector, has been appointed as the new chairman, indicating a shift in leadership style and potential strategic focus [1][2]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges, including a slowdown in growth and declining terminal prices, which complicates the task for the new leadership to maintain performance and stability [5][6]. - The market is observing how Chen Hua will navigate the balance between Moutai's internal development and the expectations from the Guizhou government [5][6]. Recent Performance and Strategies - Under Zhang Deqin's leadership, Moutai emphasized a multi-channel distribution strategy, with wholesale and agency channels generating significant revenue, surpassing direct sales [4]. - Moutai has also engaged in cultural initiatives and collaborations to enhance brand image and connect with younger consumers, although some of these efforts faced internal resistance [4][5]. Market Position - Despite recent price declines, Moutai's flagship product, Feitian Moutai, remains a leading high-end liquor, with a stable dealer network that could attract new investments if adjustments are made [6]. - The company has a history of successfully navigating market adjustments, suggesting a strong capacity for self-regulation and adaptation in challenging economic environments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, marking the first time in five years that both metrics have decreased, primarily due to the impact of new alcohol consumption restrictions and an industry-wide cyclical adjustment [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.89% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1][3]. Market Challenges - The company faces challenges in both domestic and external markets, with a notable decline in performance in its primary market of Anhui, which accounts for over 60% of total revenue [3][4]. - Domestic revenue decreased by 12% to 2.364 billion yuan, raising concerns among investors [3][4]. - Revenue from external markets fell by 30% to 625 million yuan, with its share of total revenue dropping to less than 20% [6]. Strategic Plans - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for the year, representing a growth of approximately 3.49%, and a net profit target of 2.62 billion yuan, with a growth of about 1% [3]. - Management plans to stabilize prices, optimize the distributor structure, innovate products, expand market reach, and enhance digital marketing and channel transformation to drive high-quality marketing development [3][6]. Sales and Marketing - Despite an increase in sales expenses to 307 million yuan, up 1.39% year-on-year, this did not translate into improved performance, leading to a rise in the sales expense ratio [7]. - The management indicated a focus on refined operations and efficiency improvements to enhance profitability moving forward [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently experiencing a downturn, with many companies facing declining performance and a challenging market environment [1][2][3]. Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, 15 out of 21 listed baijiu companies reported declining performance, with only 6 companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, showing positive growth [1][8]. - The overall market is under pressure, with many companies returning to industry averages after years of high growth, indicating a significant adjustment phase [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The baijiu sector is witnessing a consolidation of competitive advantages, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining their positions despite a slowdown in growth [12][15]. - There is a notable divergence in performance among companies, with some experiencing significant declines, while a few manage to maintain or slightly grow their revenues [5][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the second half of the year may see a potential rebound, particularly during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, which could provide a window for price stabilization and recovery [17][22]. - However, many believe that a broader recovery for the industry may take longer, with some predicting that the sector may not fully stabilize until late 2025 or mid-2026 [20][19]. Investment Sentiment - Recent market activity indicates a cautious optimism, with some investors betting on a rebound in baijiu stocks, as the sector's overall valuation has reached historically low levels [24][23]. - The current environment is seen as an opportunity for stronger companies to emerge from the downturn, potentially leading to a more concentrated market with fewer but stronger players [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently experiencing a downturn, with many companies reporting declining performance. However, some analysts believe this could signal a bottoming out and potential recovery in the future [1][12]. Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, 15 out of 21 listed baijiu companies reported declining performance, with only 6 companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, showing positive growth [1][4]. - The overall industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies returning to average performance levels after years of high growth [4][11]. Company-Specific Insights - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye continue to show resilience, maintaining their positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][9]. - Companies such as Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiuzi Jiu have reported significant declines, with Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue dropping by 24% and net profit by 35% in Q2 [2][8]. - The performance of Shanxi Fenjiu has slowed, with growth rates returning to single digits after years of double-digit increases [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a clear trend of market share concentrating among top brands, while smaller and regional brands struggle to maintain their positions [10][11]. - The number of regulated baijiu companies has decreased, indicating a consolidation trend within the industry [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the second half of the year may see a potential rebound, particularly during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could provide a window for price stabilization and recovery [12][13]. - Despite recent stock price increases, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with many expecting that a full recovery may take until late 2025 or beyond [13][14].