营业收入符合指引，全年业绩释放确定性强 消费品/商业 5 月 23 日，同程旅行发布 25Q1 业绩，报告期内公司实现营收 43.8 亿元，同 比增长 13.2%；实现经调整 EBITDA/经调整净利润为 11.6/7.9 亿元，同比增长 41.3%/41.1%，收入符合指引预期，经营业绩略超市场预期。2025Q1 国内出行 需求仍保持较高的景气度，得益于佣金率提升及休闲旅游需求持续释放，公司 Q1 收入稳步增长，国际业务延续高增长趋势。随着 OTA 渗透率持续提升+格 局优化下佣金率改善延续，公司收入端有望延续高增趋势，叠加国际业务减亏& 规模效益带来的 OPM 改善，全年业绩具备较强确定性，维持"强烈推荐"评 级。 ❑ 风险提示：经济消费下滑风险；出行政策变化风险；疫情反复风险。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 5 月 25 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 11904 | 173 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and positive operating profit margins, indicating a robust recovery in the travel sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb13.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29% [1]. - The company maintains its non-GAAP EPS forecasts of Rmb27.7 for 2025, Rmb29.7 for 2026, and Rmb30 for 2027 [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 23% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 8%, packaged tour revenue by 7%, corporate travel revenue by 12%, and other business revenue by 33% [2]. - Revenue breakdown by region: domestic (65% of total revenue, low teens growth), outbound (15%, 20% growth), and pure overseas (20%, 30%+ growth) [2]. Brand Contribution and Outlook - The Trip.com brand contributed 13% of total revenue, with over 50% year-over-year growth [3]. - For Q2 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 14% year-over-year, with domestic business in low teens, outbound travel up by 15%, and Trip.com brand growth exceeding 50% [3]. - The recovery rate of outbound travel compared to 2019 is projected to rise from 50% in Q1 2025 to 60% [3]. Market Position and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in China's online travel industry, with potential for market share gains internationally [4]. - The target price is maintained at HK$590, indicating a 22% upside, with a Buy rating sustained [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net revenue of RMB4.4 billion, representing a 13.2% year-over-year increase from the same period in 2024 [27] - Adjusted net profit reached RMB788 million, reflecting a 41.1% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted net margin of 18% compared to 14.4% in the same period of 2024 [27] - The core OTA business revenue grew by 18.4% year-over-year, totaling RMB3.8 billion, driven by growth in accommodation reservation and transportation ticketing [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transportation ticketing revenue was RMB2.0 billion, a 15.2% increase year-over-year [27] - Accommodation reservation business achieved RMB1.2 billion, representing a 23.3% increase from the same period in 2024 [28] - International accommodation business saw significant growth, contributing to overall performance [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outbound travel segment accounted for over 5% of total transportation ticketing revenues, marking a year-over-year increase of three percentage points [28] - International room night sales and international air ticketing volumes increased by more than 40% year-over-year [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deepen its domestic market presence while accelerating the expansion of its outbound travel business [7] - Plans to acquire Wanda Hotel Management Company to enhance influence within the hotel management sector and support sustainable growth [11] - Focus on technological advancements and integrating AI into business operations to improve service quality and efficiency [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's travel industry, supported by government initiatives and changing consumer preferences [11][31] - The company plans to enhance user value and drive technological iteration to improve service efficiency [9] - Positive signals in the travel market, including increased ADR and consumer willingness to pay for quality accommodations, indicate a robust recovery [64] Other Important Information - The company has established a comprehensive hotel brand portfolio with over 2,500 hotels in operation and more than 1,400 in the pipeline [18] - The standalone app has seen a 60% year-over-year increase in daily active users, contributing significantly to user acquisition [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth pattern of core OTA business in upcoming quarters - Management highlighted the resilience of the Chinese travel market and expects steady growth with healthy profitability, focusing on enhancing ARPU and optimizing marketing investments [36][38] Question: Forecast for outbound business growth - Outbound travel segment has shown remarkable growth, with international air ticketing revenue accounting for over 45% of total transportation ticketing revenue [46][48] Question: Impact of AI agent DeepTrip on user engagement - DeepTrip is still in early adoption stages, with innovative features being integrated to enhance user experience and engagement over time [49][50] Question: Update on standalone app performance - The standalone app has significantly contributed to user acquisition and revenue growth, with ongoing efforts to enhance user engagement and ARPU [54][58] Question: Macro uncertainties and travel demand sustainability - Despite macro uncertainties, management remains optimistic about the travel industry's growth, citing strong consumer demand and changing consumption patterns [63][64] Question: Rationale behind the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's hotel management capabilities and leverage existing user insights for better marketing and operational efficiency [68][70]

【环球网财经综合报道】5月23日，同程旅行发布2025年一季度业绩报告，数据显示，公司一季度实现 营收43.77亿元，同比增长13.2%，经调整净利润为7.88亿元，展现出强劲的增长势头。 随着大众旅游消费力的不断升级，同程旅行年服务人次达到19.6亿，年付费用户更是创下历史新高，达 到2.47亿。公司从普通旅行者需求出发，提供更具性价比的出行方案，交通业务收入同比增长15.2%， 达到20亿元。 在住宿业务方面，同程旅行同样表现出色，收入同比增长23.3%，达到11.9亿元。非一线城市居民出境 热潮的带动下，国际机票和酒店业务也实现显著增长，国际机票量同比增长超40%，国际酒店间夜量同 比增长超50%。 同程旅行还聚焦大众出行的"第一公里"和"最后一公里"，构建了丰富的出行产品体系，满足用户个性化 需求。同时，公司通过火车/机票+接送服务、酒店+用车服务等创新组合，为用户提供大力度的优惠让 利，进一步提升了用户满意度和忠诚度。 此外，同程旅行持续加大在AI应用领域的投入，推出AI智能体DeepTrip，实现从"AI推荐"到"AI决策执 行+预订执行"的闭环，提升了运营效率。 同程旅行CEO马和平表示，大众旅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel (00780.HK) reported a revenue of RMB 4.377 billion for the three months ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - The company achieved a profit of RMB 679 million, a significant increase of 69.5% year-on-year, driven by continuous revenue growth, optimized marketing strategies, and improved operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the period was RMB 1.159 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit rose by 41.1% to RMB 788 million, with an adjusted net profit margin improving significantly to 18.0% [1] User Metrics - The number of annual paying users reached a record high of 247.3 million, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative service users for the twelve months increased by 7.3% to 1,959.5 million [1] - Average monthly paying users in the first quarter grew by 9.2% to 46.5 million, also a new high [1] Market Reach - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China as of March 31, 2025 [1] - More than 68% of new paying users on the WeChat platform came from non-first-tier cities during the three months ending March 31, 2025 [1] Service Offerings - The online platform offers approximately 450,000 flight routes operated by over 760 airlines and agents, around 4 million hotel options, 170,000+ car routes, 800+ ferry routes, and tickets for over 10,000 tourist attractions [2]

同程旅行公告，截至2025年3月31日止三个月，收入由2024年第一季度的人民币38.66亿元同比增加 13.2%至43.77亿元。期内经调整EBITDA由2024年第一季度的人民币8.2亿元同比增加41.3%至11.59亿 元，经调整EBITDA利润率由21.2%增加至26.5%。期内经调整溢利净额由2024年第一季度的人民币5.58 亿元同比增加41.1%至7.88亿元，经调整净利润率由14.4%增加至18.0%。平均月付费用户由2024年第一 季度的4260万人同比增加9.2%至4650万人。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies have a clear insight into consumer trends and market dynamics, which drives their continuous expansion in the stable lodging and ticket booking sectors [1] - The domestic tourism market is experiencing rapid recovery post-pandemic, with four key factors expected to drive growth: lower-tier market consumers, the affluent elderly demographic, the enthusiastic Z generation, and the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism [1] - The current competitive landscape among OTA platforms is stable, and there is optimism regarding the diversification of domestic OTA platforms to enhance business growth [5] Group 2 - Despite the pressure on travel prices due to the rapid recovery of flights and hotel availability, it is anticipated that the decline in travel prices will stabilize by 2025, aided by structural changes in the travel demographic [2] - The OTA platform industry has become an integral part of daily life for Chinese consumers, with increasing penetration rates leading to rapid market growth [3] - Chinese OTA platforms are expanding their business scope through acquisitions and self-built initiatives, particularly in overseas markets, while also launching vacation services to capitalize on the recovery of inbound tourism and the popularity of customized travel [4]

Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in sales of activity products, including flight passes, hotel packages, and theme park tickets, with nearly 2 million items sold to date, representing a substantial year-on-year growth [1] - New and innovative offerings are driving strong growth, with sales of theme park tours, cruise trips, and self-driving tours with new energy vehicles all experiencing a doubling in sales [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipated increase in travel enthusiasm among family units during the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, coinciding with Children's Day, leading to a 23% year-on-year growth in domestic peripheral travel bookings for the 2025 holiday [1][2] - In Shenzhen, the city is expected to attract a new wave of inbound tourists during the Dragon Boat Festival, following its recognition as one of the top ten inbound travel cities during the May Day holiday [1] - The top ten inbound travel destinations for the Dragon Boat Festival include major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, indicating a strong demand for urban tourism [1][2] Group 2 - The proportion of family travel orders on the Ctrip platform has significantly increased, with 35% of orders being from parent-child families, and searches for family-friendly hotels rising by 45% compared to the previous year [2] - The search interest for domestic inbound travel hotels has more than doubled, with the top ten source countries for inbound tourists being Malaysia, South Korea, and Singapore [2] - Popular outbound travel destinations for the Dragon Boat Festival include Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong, with short-haul flights under three hours being particularly favored due to visa convenience and travel time [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming Dragon Boat Festival is expected to see a surge in outbound travel, with a more than 200% year-on-year increase in search interest among Chinese travelers, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, with Japan and South Korea seeing over 300% growth [1][2] - Chinese travelers are increasingly seeking immersive experiences that allow them to connect deeply with their destinations, marking the arrival of a new era of travel focused on depth rather than just sightseeing [1][4] Group 1: Travel Trends - The top ten outbound travel destinations for early summer include Japan, South Korea, France, Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Thailand, Malaysia, and Switzerland, with European destinations gaining significant popularity [2] - The Z generation is driving the growth of outbound travel, with their search activity on Airbnb increasing nearly threefold compared to other age groups [2][3] - Four major interest trends have emerged among Chinese travelers: local cuisine, art and culture, concert attendance, and nature experiences [2][3] Group 2: Experience Economy - The experience economy is becoming a key growth driver for travel platforms and hotel brands, with Airbnb launching new services to enhance the "stay and play" experience for travelers [4][5] - Nearly 95% of surveyed Chinese respondents indicated they would book experience projects while traveling, with 85% stating they have traveled specifically for an experience or activity [4][5] - The demand for authentic experiences is particularly strong among the Z generation and families, with 60% of respondents prioritizing "authenticity" when searching for experiences [4][5] Group 3: Business Strategy - Airbnb aims to leverage high-frequency experience offerings to boost its lower-frequency accommodation business, creating a "one-stop travel" booking experience [6][7] - The integration of accommodation and experience bookings is seen as a necessary evolution in the travel market, with platforms increasingly focusing on providing comprehensive travel solutions [6][7] - The rise of experience-driven travel is prompting various hotel brands and platforms to enhance their offerings, with unique experiences leading to higher booking conversion rates [7][8]