Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - In May 2025, the electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a record high since 2012 [3] - The report highlights a positive correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate differential and the Shanghai Composite Index [21] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to recent policy adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate differential in May 2025 was -5.6 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [12][21] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for June 2025 was 49.12, up 0.07% from the previous month [21] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late June, the average daily crude steel production of key enterprises decreased by 0.88% [24] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.29%, down 0.54 percentage points [42] - The average price of rebar was 3180 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.91% [42] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20750 CNY/ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [11] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1342.99 points, down 1.92% [4] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [4] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio was 37.44% and 69.40%, respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical average levels following the recent revisions to the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]

Core Viewpoint - The external environment is improving, leading to a gradual rise in the A-share market, with recent international situations showing signs of stabilization [1] Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs in recent weeks, while the Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded [1] - Last week, the average daily trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.4 trillion, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards traditional industries such as steel and building materials, with banks also performing relatively strongly [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the consolidation range observed in May and June, indicating a shift in trading focus [1] - On Friday, the index challenged significant technical resistance from the fourth quarter of the previous year but faced a pullback after encountering resistance [1] - Without substantial positive news, it is expected that a significant upward breakthrough may be challenging [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen the trend of "reducing capital expenditure," leading to a more certain and sustained supply-demand turning point starting in mid-2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policies are reminiscent of the supply-side reforms from 2016-2017, which can be broken down into three core elements: "reducing capacity," "reducing output," and demand-side stimulation [2]. - "Reducing capital expenditure" is an inevitable trend, with the current growth rate of capital expenditure in the midstream manufacturing sector reaching a new low since 2012 [3]. - The impact of "reducing capacity" will manifest in three ways: delayed effects from reduced capital expenditure, abandonment of existing projects, and guiding the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The most significant impact of the current anti-involution is that by mid-2026, the growth rate of fixed asset formation in midstream manufacturing will be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, enhancing the visibility of the supply-demand turning point [4]. - The current low capacity utilization and weak internal investment willingness among enterprises suggest further room for decline in capital expenditure growth [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in the supply-demand dynamics in midstream manufacturing and the easing of the anti-involution narrative are seen as crucial components for a bull market expected in 2026-2027 [8]. - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an investment narrative, enhancing risk appetite, although the current fundamental expectations and profit accumulation are not yet at bull market levels [8][9]. - The focus on high-dividend stocks, including bank shares, is deemed a long-term correct strategy, but short-term dynamics indicate that this trend may not be sustainable [10]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The sectors currently showing significant profit expansion include banking, steel, and electricity equipment, while sectors like defense and non-ferrous metals are experiencing contraction [14]. - The short-term market focus is on sectors such as steel, building materials, and electrical equipment, with expectations of improved profitability in various manufacturing sub-sectors by Q4 2025 [11]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should consider the anticipated structural changes in the market, with a focus on sectors that will benefit from the anti-involution policies and the expected recovery in profitability [11][14]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in the potential bull market, driven by factors such as concentrated IPOs and early dividends [11].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]

上周全球资本市场表现如何？ 周周芝道 - 牛市的条件是否充分 20250706 摘要 美国国债利率上周受小非农数据影响先降后升，未来需关注美国通胀数 据及降息节奏。预计 9 月可能降息，此前美债利率或将持续波动，同时 需警惕欧洲财政风险的外溢效应。 近期美元指数走弱与美国经济数据及欧洲财政扩张相关，下半年美元走 弱速度可能放缓，此前多种因素叠加推动美元走弱，这些因素在下半年 难以再度叠加，全球资产定价中美元走弱的逻辑可能面临调整。 中国 A 股上周表现强劲，大盘价值风格明显占优，主要受"反内卷"概 念关注。但当前需求疲软，供给侧改革若削减中下游企业利润，可能加 剧需求疲弱，实现类似 2016 年效果存疑。 6 月中国出口表现良好，制造业 PMI 显示生产和出口均不错，但中小企 业生产景气度边际走弱。上半年出口强劲，但动能可能减弱，下半年外 需或走低，内需方面房地产市场连续两月下滑，内外需求均呈现收缩态 势。 全球资本市场方面，美国财政政策引发讨论，非农数据调整降息预期， 影响全球美元流动性。欧洲财政扩张信号有所逆转，但实际落地可能要 等到明年，这些因素共同影响全球资本市场定价。 Q&A 上周全球资本市场表现较 ...

2025 年 07 月 06 日 "反内卷"政策下，能源及材料投 资机会梳理 看好 ——新材料与投资品产业链点评 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵文琪 (8621)23297818× zhaowq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.4 times, positioned at the historical 77th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.3 times, at the historical 58th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 28.9 times, at the historical 48th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 32.4 times, at the historical 14th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 38.7 times, at the historical 50th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 50.9 times, at the historical 67th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 136.3 times, at the historical 97th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.2 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 6th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, spot prices continue to decline while multi-crystalline silicon futures prices rise by 5.4% due to "anti-involution" policy expectations [2] - The price of silicon wafers decreased by 1.5%, while battery cell prices fell by 3.7% [2] - Lithium prices show mixed trends, with lithium carbonate rising by 2.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate falling by 0.3% [2] Real Estate Chain - In the steel sector, rebar prices increased by 1.3%, and iron ore prices rose by 2.3% [3] - The cement price index decreased by 0.8% due to seasonal demand weakness [3] - Glass prices saw a short-term emotional rebound, with a 1.5% increase in spot prices [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs increased by 4.3%, driven by reduced output plans from leading enterprises [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor saw a slight increase of 0.01% [3] - Corn prices rose by 0.6%, while soybean prices remained stable [3] Technology TMT - Domestic smartphone shipments saw a year-on-year decline of 2.8% from January to May 2025, with leading brands focusing on the high-end market [3] Cyclical Industries - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 1.8%, closing at $68.51 per barrel [3] - The coal price at Qinhuangdao Port rose by 0.5% due to seasonal demand improvements [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 5.6%, indicating a decrease in shipping rates [3]

Group 1: Impact of "Anti-Inner-Loop" Policy on the Market - The "Anti-Inner-Loop" policy has gained significant attention from the central government, particularly in industries facing overcapacity, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, 2025 [2][11] - Following the policy announcement, sectors such as photovoltaic and cement have taken measures to reduce production and optimize industry structure, leading to a strong market response with noticeable capital inflow [2][11] - The policy aims to enhance supply structure, stabilize market expectations, and improve overall industry efficiency and competitiveness [11][12] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The current market is in a volatile phase, with investment hotspots concentrated in technology, military industry, and state-owned enterprises, benefiting from stable policies and capital inflow from U.S. markets [5][16] - The technology sector is expected to be a key focus in July, supported by reduced policy uncertainty and domestic planning emphasizing technology [16][17] - The military sector is anticipated to perform well due to increased defense budgets and upcoming high-profile military events [17] - State-owned enterprises and public utilities are seen as having good allocation value in the third quarter, given the weakening internal dynamics of real estate and strict regulatory measures [18] Group 3: Market Overview and Trends - The market has shown a trend of oscillating upward, with major indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 1.22%, 1.54%, and 0.59% respectively [8][21] - The steel, banking, and building materials sectors have led the market, indicating a recovery in activity levels [21][23] - The average turnover rate for the entire market has increased, reflecting a rise in trading activity [27][28]

傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 05 日 去产能是慢变量，去产量是快变量 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/06/30-25/07/05) 相关研究 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 一、反内卷需要区分"去资本开支""去产能""去产量"。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 反内卷政策加码，唤醒了市场对 2016-17 年的供给侧的记忆。我们认为，2016-17 年供 给侧改革经验，可以拆解成三个核心要素：一是"去产能"，包括淘汰落后产能，也包 括抑制新增资本开支，使得远期产能形成下降。"去产能"的影响是长期的，2022 年之 前以煤炭为代表的周期品盈利 ...