——锂矿库存偏紧，上方空间略有想象 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场运行态势震荡走强，符合之前预期。展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的核心驱动逻辑将聚 焦于这些方面："国内锂矿紧张程度"、"十一月份枧下窝复产情况"和"下游11月份排产节奏"，上述因 素将主导后续市场情绪。 南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 锂矿端，若国内可流通的锂精矿库存持续维持低位，那么市场原料端的紧张格局将有进一步加深的可能性， 并通过产业链传导逐步推升碳酸锂价格；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝 复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求 端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸 锂的需求韧性；若下游11月排产延续高景气度，锂盐需求将维持强势格局，进而反向加剧锂矿的供需错配情 况。此外，从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ansheng Technology, reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the third quarter, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in the market [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 7.399 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.92% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 500 million yuan, showing an increase of 8.3% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 387 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.38% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, indicating strong operational performance and positive market conditions [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.967 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 192 million yuan, showing an 8.02% year-on-year growth [1] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2025 were 0.3521 yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 7.399 billion yuan, which is a 33.92% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 503 million yuan, reflecting an 8.30% year-on-year growth [1] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters were 0.9686 yuan [1]

Group 1 - Tianhua New Energy (SZ 300390) held its 28th meeting of the sixth board of directors on October 24, 2025, to discuss the proposal for designating a delivery warehouse for lithium hydroxide at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1] - For the first half of 2025, Tianhua New Energy's revenue composition was 88.08% from the lithium battery materials sector and 11.92% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Tianhua New Energy has a market capitalization of 21.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Chinese innovative drug sector has generated $80 billion in overseas licensing deals this year, indicating a robust market for biopharmaceuticals [1] - Despite the hot secondary market for biopharmaceuticals, fundraising in the primary market is facing challenges, as discussed by Lu Gang, a partner at Chuangdong Investment [1]

Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing's stock price increased by 5.12% on October 24, reaching 12.94 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 372 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.54%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 24.817 billion CNY. The stock has risen for four consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 7.89% during this period [1] Company Overview - Keda Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is located in Shunde District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, and was established on December 11, 1996. The company was listed on October 10, 2002. Its main business includes the production and sales of building materials machinery, overseas building materials, lithium battery materials and equipment, and strategic investments in lithium salt business [1] - The revenue composition of Keda Manufacturing is as follows: overseas building materials 46.06%, building materials machinery 31.38%, lithium battery materials 11.33%, new energy equipment 8.68%, and others 2.55% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Caitong Fund has a significant holding in Keda Manufacturing. The Caitong Huazhen Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed A (021147) held 642,600 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 2.35% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest heavy stock. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 404,800 CNY, with a floating profit of 578,300 CNY during the four-day increase [2] - Caitong Huazhen Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed A (021147) was established on May 6, 2024, with a latest scale of 34.6323 million CNY. Year-to-date return is 18.19%, ranking 4456 out of 8154 in its category; the one-year return is 18.1%, ranking 4027 out of 8025; and the return since inception is 21.87% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rongjie Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.04%, reaching 41.05 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10.659 billion CNY, indicating strong market interest in the company [1] Company Overview - Rongjie Co., Ltd. is located in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, and was established on August 21, 1998, with its listing date on December 5, 2007 [1] - The company primarily operates in the new energy lithium battery materials industry, which includes lithium ore mining, lithium salt processing and smelting, and lithium battery equipment manufacturing [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: lithium concentrate 86.31%, lithium battery equipment 12.76%, lithium salt 0.66%, and others 0.28% [1] Fund Holdings - Jin Yuan Shun An Fund has a significant holding in Rongjie Co., with its Jin Yuan Shun An Xin Yi Mixed Initiation A Fund (022492) holding 1,900 shares, representing 0.53% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth largest holding [2] - The fund was established on March 4, 2025, with a current scale of 10.8755 million CNY and has achieved a return of 4.69% since inception [2] - Fund managers Li Rui and Chen Mingjie have varying performance records, with Li Rui having a tenure of 234 days and a best return of 4.99%, while Chen Mingjie has a tenure of 1 year and 363 days with a best return of 4.99% and a worst return of -23.25% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring plan of Sunwoda is facing unexpected challenges as the original investor, Saimaike, has been replaced by TCL, leading to legal disputes and uncertainties regarding the restructuring process [1][2][3] Group 1: Legal Disputes and Investor Changes - Saimaike has filed a lawsuit against Jiangsu New Yangzi Commerce and the restructuring manager, claiming that their exclusion from the restructuring investor group was unauthorized and seeking to invalidate the restructuring investment agreement signed on September 29 [1][2] - The court has acknowledged the case and is urging the parties involved to negotiate a resolution, indicating that the establishment of the restructuring agreement is uncertain [1][2] - The change in investors from Saimaike to TCL has raised questions about the transparency of the selection process and the validity of the decision made by the restructuring management team [7][8] Group 2: Implications for TCL and Sunwoda - TCL's involvement in the restructuring is expected to strengthen its relationship with Sunwoda and enhance its participation in upstream material research and development, improving supply chain efficiency [6] - The investment from TCL is projected to be under 500 million yuan, with the potential to acquire approximately 4.37 million shares of Sunwoda, translating to about 1.94% ownership [5] - Despite the ongoing legal issues, the overall value of Sunwoda appears to be increasing, as it continues to be a significant player in the lithium battery materials market, holding a leading position in negative electrode materials [9][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Sunwoda has a remarkable history, transitioning from a clothing company to a global leader in the new energy technology sector, with a strong market presence in lithium battery materials and polarizers [9][10] - The company has achieved significant milestones, including holding 334 patents in negative electrode materials and becoming the largest supplier of polarizers globally [10] - The restructuring process is critical for Sunwoda's future, and its ability to navigate these challenges will determine its success in maintaining its market position [11][12]

Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt experienced a 1.47% decline in stock price on October 22, with a trading volume of 3.056 billion yuan and a net financing outflow of 401.51 million yuan [1] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue reaching 58.941 billion yuan, up 29.57% year-on-year, and net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [2] - Huayou Cobalt has a high financing balance, with 54.07 billion yuan, representing 4.65% of its market capitalization, indicating a strong position in the market [1] Financing and Trading Activity - On October 22, Huayou Cobalt had a financing buy amount of 397 million yuan and a financing repayment of 401 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Huayou Cobalt reached 5.415 billion yuan, with the financing balance exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year [1] - The company had a securities lending balance of 823.88 million yuan, which is above the 80th percentile of the past year [1] Shareholder and Dividend Information - As of September 30, 2025, Huayou Cobalt had 257,100 shareholders, an increase of 31.78%, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 15.22% to 7,328 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.876 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.835 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with some increasing and others decreasing their holdings [3]

Core Insights - Dao's Technology experienced a stock price decline of 1.28% on October 22, with a trading volume of 657 million yuan [1] - The company reported a net profit increase of 182.45% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, despite a slight revenue decrease of 1.79% [2] Financing and Trading Activity - On October 22, Dao's Technology had a financing buy amount of 111 million yuan and a financing repayment of 127 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 16.86 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Dao's Technology reached 1.765 billion yuan, with financing balance accounting for 9.78% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level of financing [1] - The company had a securities lending balance of 1.1299 million yuan, which is below the 20th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low level of short selling activity [1] Shareholder and Dividend Information - As of September 30, Dao's Technology had 84,500 shareholders, an increase of 13.97% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 12.26% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 678 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 385 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 3.0757 million shares, and new shareholder China Aviation New Start Flexible Allocation Mixed A [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive long-term outlook for the Chinese equity market, with expectations of a turning point in US dollar liquidity and a commitment to high-quality economic development in China [1][6]. Financial Performance - As of the end of Q3, the net asset value of the A-class shares of the fund was 1.1172 yuan, with a quarterly growth rate of 45.58%, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 13.49% [1][3]. - The fund's total assets exceeded 19 billion yuan, establishing it as a representative active equity product managed by the company [1]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes a concentrated and in-depth research approach, focusing on sectors such as new energy, electronics, machinery, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks [6]. - The investment strategy includes three main lines for AI-themed investments: efficiency-enhancing internet leaders, companies driven by new application scenarios, and firms related to computing power and cloud services [6]. Sector Insights - In the new energy sector, the focus is on the midstream materials of lithium batteries, with an expectation of a healthy supply-demand relationship and potential shortages in certain segments next year [6]. - The military industry is showing signs of improvement in contract liabilities, indicating an upward cycle in orders, supported by increased overseas military trade demand [7]. Market Outlook - The company maintains confidence in the Chinese economy, highlighting the gradual emergence of long-term investment value in the A-share market, particularly for high-quality companies with global competitiveness [7].