碳酸锂周报 2024 年 6 月 3 日 缺乏提涨驱动 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 锂价弱势震荡运行 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：锂价屡创新低，上游锂盐厂停减产信息频出， 高频周产数据连续下滑。下游悲观预期较浓，现货端始终 维持刚需采买，企业节前备库强度有限。产量收缩背景下， 库存端整体仍处于高位。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，百川口径下的锂辉石及锂云母价格 均有不同幅度的下跌。 ⚫ 盘面上，主力合约 ...

机构预计锂价进入磨底过程，锂矿价格或随锂盐价格承压。锂业股继续下跌，赣锋锂业(01772)跌 4.48%；天齐锂业(09696)跌3.47%。 黄金股逆势走高，地缘与贸易担忧情绪提振金价，机构看好看好金价中枢上移。潼关黄金(00340)涨 10%；集海资源(02489)涨4.94%；中国黄金国际(02099)涨1.9%；赤峰黄金(06693)涨1.80%；山东黄金 (01787)涨1.43%。 蜜雪集团(02097)盘中涨超6%，股价刷新上市新高，大和升其目标价至608港元。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌2.20%，跌511点，报22778点；恒生科技指数跌2.43%。港股早盘成 交883亿港元。 大金融板块早盘走低，流动性好转此前推动金融板块上升，市场关注金管局是否收紧港元流动性。内银 内险、中资券商等板块全线承压。光大证券(06178)跌4.63%；招商证券(06099)跌4.50%；建设银行 (00939)跌3.27%；中国人寿(02628)跌3.25%。 香港稳定币条例正式成为法例，公司布局香港虚拟资产领域。连连数字(02598)大涨超60%。 6月2日，比特币向上升破105000美元。加密货币 ...

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures have dropped significantly, with a decrease of 2.23% on May 29, closing at 58,860 yuan/ton, marking a year-to-date low and a cumulative decline of 23.66% from the peak price of 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [2] - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate also fell, with a decrease of 1,000 yuan per ton on the same day, averaging 61,000 yuan/ton, which is also a year-to-date low [2] - The primary reason for the continuous decline in lithium prices is insufficient downstream demand, as global lithium resource and lithium salt production capacity continue to expand, leading to an oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The future outlook for lithium prices is challenging, with an increase in supply and stable downstream demand, making a significant rebound unlikely [3] - The price decline may lead to the elimination of high-cost, low-efficiency companies, promoting a competitive environment where resources concentrate in more competitive enterprises [3] - Ongoing low prices may increase merger and acquisition activities within the lithium industry, potentially raising industry concentration [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium price decline has slowed down in Q1 2025, leading to a slight recovery in overseas lithium mine prices and improved operations for salt lake companies, but the industry is facing significant losses as prices drop to 60,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, overseas lithium mine production decreased, with a total output of 1.01 million tons, a decline of over 10% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Major lithium mines saw a slight price recovery in Q1 2025, with average prices rising above $800/ton, driven by strong demand in the Chinese market [2] - The price of lithium concentrate has entered a new downward trend since Q2 2025, dropping below $650/ton by the end of May, leading to increased operational pressure and losses for overseas lithium miners [3] Group 2: South American Salt Lake Operations - In Q1 2025, lithium sales for ALB, SQM, and LAAC/Ganfeng Lithium were 44,000 tons, 55,000 tons, and 7,200 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6%, 26%, and 60% [4] - ALB and SQM showed improved operational performance in Q1 2025 due to reduced price declines and increased contributions from other business segments [4] - South American salt lake lithium companies are continuing their expansion plans, with LAR and Ganfeng Lithium aiming to increase their lithium production capacity in Argentina to over 200,000 tons [4] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - As of the end of May 2025, domestic lithium carbonate prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton, further expanding industry losses and strengthening expectations for mine production cuts and price rebounds [5] - The company expects lithium prices to stabilize and rebound at current levels, but long-term prices are anticipated to remain at the bottom due to oversupply and cost-cutting efforts by lithium resource companies [5] - The adjusted forecast for lithium prices in the second half of 2025 is set at 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced a significant decline, dropping to a recent low of 59,500 yuan/ton, which is a 90% decrease from the peak of 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of lithium salt enterprises and the entire lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Price Trends - In 2023, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China fell to 103,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, an 80.38% decrease from the average of 525,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [2]. - The price trend for 2024 is expected to show a "rise then fall" pattern, with a 30% increase in early months due to environmental issues and inventory replenishment, followed by a decline due to supply-demand imbalance [2][6]. - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,100 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade was 61,500 yuan/ton, indicating a continued downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with global lithium salt production increasing by 23% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the demand for power batteries is showing signs of slowing down [6][7]. - As of May 2025, total social inventory of lithium carbonate reached 131,700 tons, with salt plant inventory increasing by 8.8%, indicating prolonged destocking cycles [6][7]. Cost Structure Changes - The production costs for lithium salt enterprises are decreasing, with salt lake enterprises maintaining costs around 40,000 yuan/ton, while African mines range from 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Companies are transitioning to lower-cost production methods, with some salt lake projects expected to achieve production costs as low as 32,000 yuan/ton [8]. Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains pessimistic due to the downward spiral of salt and mineral prices, with many lithium salt enterprises struggling to maintain profitability [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market may only return to balance after the elimination of loss-making capacities, indicating that prices are likely to remain weak in the short term [8].

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

-广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源： 长江有色金属网 5月26日，紫金矿业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"紫金矿业"）发布公告称， 紫金矿业拟将其控股子公司 紫金黄金国际有限公司（以下简称"紫金黄金国际"）分拆至香港联交所主板上市。 发行方式为香港公开发 行及国际配售。本次分拆上市发行的股份数量不超过发行后紫金黄金国际总股本的15%（超额配售权行使 前）。 本次分拆实施前，紫金矿业拟将下属多座境外黄金矿山资产重组整合至紫金黄金国际旗下，相关重组工作 目前尚在推进过程中。 紫金矿业拟分拆业务以紫金黄金国际为主体，包括紫金矿业旗下位于南美洲、中亚地区、非洲和大洋洲等 地的境外黄金矿山资产，相关资产依托当地丰富的黄金资源优势，独立开展黄金相关的勘探、开采、生 产、销售等活动。 紫金矿业表示，此次分拆完成后，紫金黄金国际将进一步深耕境外市场业务，持续推进全球黄金资源开 发，与上市公司及下属其他企业（除拟分拆主体及资产外）保持相对较高的独立性。分拆不会对上市公司 的主营业务构成实质影响。 公开信息显示，紫金黄金国际成立于2007年，专注于全球优质黄 ...

Core Points - Chile's President Boric announced the "National Lithium Strategy" on April 20, 2023, which led to negotiations between Codelco and SQM authorized by Corfo on May 24, 2023 [1] - Codelco disclosed that discussions with Morgan Stanley regarding an "underground agreement" began 21 days prior to the announcement of the lithium strategy, with Morgan serving as a financial advisor during negotiations with SQM [1] - A financial advisory agreement between Codelco and Morgan Stanley was signed on March 30, 2023, prior to the announcement of the lithium strategy, with Morgan's commission set at 0.4% of the net profits from the Codelco-SQM collaboration [1] Company Developments - Codelco's president submitted a copy of the agreement with Morgan Stanley to the Chilean House of Representatives, revealing undisclosed terms, including a provision that no base commission would be paid until a final agreement with SQM was signed [1] - On May 15, 2023, Codelco announced the establishment of two subsidiaries, Codelco de Chile SpA and MineralTararSpA [1] - Codelco sent a letter to Corfo on May 22, 2023, agreeing to enter into cooperation negotiations with SQM [1]

在激烈市场博弈与竞争中，由于供需关系转换带来的 "周期熊" 还在持续深刻影响全球锂矿江 湖。 最新数据显示，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2507已经连续三天 （5月26日、27日、28日） 盘中跌破6 万元/吨关口，最低下探至5.95万元/吨，尽管随后小幅回升，报收6.04万元/吨，仍较2024年年末 下跌了22.23%。 在新能源强势崛起的背景下，作为国家级战略资源，锂价的每一轮剧烈波动，都会引发一轮市场 关注与争议风暴。回顾过去十年锂价的演进历程，期间历经多轮 "牛熊" 周期的洗礼，每一轮周 期变化都对产业格局产生了深远影响。 众所周知，2023年以来锂产业供需结构已经发生了根本性转变，具体而言，资金大举进入上游加 速产能释放的情况下，下游的需求却并未同步快速增长，导致整个锂电产业链都陷入产能过剩状 态，进而行业内卷加剧，新能源行业面临残酷洗牌，所以近乎一致的预期导致市场对锂价的下跌 毫无抵抗力。 尤其2024年是全球锂资源集中投产的重要一年，随着前期各国在锂资源开发和建设方面的布局逐 步完善，各主要矿区的新项目陆续投产并释放产能。然而，受锂价持续下跌的影响，从年中开 始，不少项目相继传出停产检修的消息，行业过 ...

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 28, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company Participants Isabel Bendeck - Investor RelationsRicardo Ramos - CEO & General ManagerBen Isaacson - Managing Director - Equity ResearchGerardo Illanes - VP - Services & FinanceJoel Jackson - Managing DirectorFelipe Smith - Senior Commercial VP - LithiumCarlos Díaz Ortiz - General Manager - Lithium Potassium DivisionAndres Fontannaz - Commercial Vice PresidentAlejandro Demichelis - Managing Director - Equity Resea ...