1月30日，银河证券最新研报指出，2025年锂价走势可以年中为界，分为清晰的两半。上半年延续过剩 的一致预期，价格跌至锂辉石的现金成本附近，据称已有海外矿山计划减产，但还未及做出减产决策， 下半年行情就已经启动。三季度动储双轮驱动，叠加新矿产资源法对采矿证的影响，资金扭转空头思 路，交易周期拐点出现，行业趋势向好。截至年末，碳酸锂价格自低点翻倍有余，即使监管政策频繁出 台，也无法改变上涨趋势，短暂回调后不断创出新高。研报认为，锂作为能源转型的关键矿产，是全球 争夺电力定价权的重要基础，行业"反内卷"下长期趋势向好。2026年锂成为资金多头配置的优选，预计 锂价运行中枢抬升。但因全年仍有小幅过剩预期，节奏上较为曲折。上半年倾向于逢低买入，下半年供 应弹性提升后灵活把握套保节奏。 ...

作为全球领先的锂产品供应商，天齐锂业的资源布局一直在不断优化和强化。公司拥有的全球顶级锂资 源资产发挥了"压舱石"作用，格林布什锂矿的稳定供应和成本优势，为公司在行业下行阶段维持健康的 毛利空间提供了坚实保障。天齐锂业通过一系列举措成功将资源优势转化为成本优势，展现了卓越的运 营管理能力。过去一年里，公司坚定地推进内部流程优化和产业链协同，迎来了经营质量的实质性改 善。 展望未来，随着全球能源转型和电动汽车普及的长期趋势持续，储能市场的快速发展将为锂需求打开新 的增长空间。同时，行业调整期间，高成本产能的逐步出清有望优化供给格局，将进一步巩固天齐锂业 作为行业龙头企业的市场地位。 公司通过优化控股子公司的定价机制，显著缩短了锂矿的定价周期，公司全资子公司的化学级锂精矿定 价机制与公司锂化工产品销售定价机制在以前年度存在的时间周期错配的影响已大幅减弱。随着国内新 购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化，公司各锂化工产品生产基地的生产成本得以显著优化，有 效对冲了产品销售价格下滑带来的压力。同时公司抓住了2025年澳元走强带来的汇兑收益，成功在行业 筑底阶段巩固了自身的盈利韧性。 另外，值得关注的是，公司扣除非经 ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China has issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on key areas such as transportation services, housekeeping services, and inbound consumption [3] - The China National Space Administration plans to develop more "space+" future industries, including space tourism and space resource development, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - Apple reported a revenue of $143.76 billion for the first fiscal quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs has issued guidelines to promote technological innovation in civil affairs, aiming for significant improvements in innovation levels and the emergence of leading talents and enterprises by 2030 [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will enhance monitoring of new consumption formats and structural changes in consumption by 2026 [3] - Jiangbolong expects a net profit of between 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [9] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates a profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the previous year [9]

格隆汇1月29日丨天齐锂业(09696.HK)公告，公司财务部门按中国企业会计准则初步测算，预期集团截 至2025年12月31日止年度(i)归属于公司股东的净利润区间预计为人民币3.69亿元至人民币5.53亿元，而 上年同期集团录得归属于公司股东的亏损净额约为人民币79.05亿元；(ii)扣除非经常性损益后的净利润 区间预计为人民币2.4亿元至人民币3.6亿元，而上年同期集团录得扣除非经常性损益后的亏损净额约为 人民币79.2亿元；(iii)基本每股收益区间预计为人民币0.22元至人民币0.34元(上年同期：基本每股亏损 为人民币4.82元)。 ...

本次出售后，赣锋国际尚持有 PLS140,494,971 股普通股(包含领式期权交易的部分)，约占截至目前 PLS 已发行普通股总数的4.36%。 智通财经APP讯，赣锋锂业(01772)公布，2026 年 1 月，公司全资子公司 GFL International Co.,Ltd(以下 简称"赣锋国际")通过二级市场大宗交易出售PLS Group Ltd(曾用名：Pilbara Minerals Limited，证券代 码：PLS，以下简称"PLS")3219万股普通股，出售金额(扣除交易费用等后)共计约1.6亿澳元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 18.906 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.66% year-on-year, and a net loss of 2.074 billion yuan, marking a 141.92% decline from profit [7]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 8.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.65%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -531 million yuan, an increase of 30.13% in losses compared to the previous year [7]. - The third quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery, with revenue of 6.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.10%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, up 364.02% year-on-year [8]. - The estimated profit range for the fourth quarter of 2025 is between 1.074 billion and 1.624 billion yuan, with a potential quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 300% [8]. Key Drivers of Performance - The turnaround in performance is attributed to three main factors: an increase in the fair value of PLS stock holdings, the transfer of equity in a subsidiary to strategic investors, and losses from the fair value changes of convertible bonds due to stock price increases [5].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Ganfeng Lithium's Q4 2025 performance is impressive, with non-net profit slightly exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 153% to 180% [1] - For Q4 2025, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 1.07 billion to 1.62 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 93% to 192% [1] Profit Margins and Cost Structure - Due to self-supply of lithium carbonate, the company anticipates a slight increase in profit per watt-hour to 0.02 yuan per watt-hour in 2026 [1] Technological Developments - The company is advancing in solid-state technology, including solid-state electrolytes, lithium metal anodes, and solid-state batteries, with multiple technological routes being developed [1] Market Outlook - Considering the rising price of lithium carbonate, the company estimates that if the price reaches 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, lithium salt could contribute over 9 billion yuan in profit [1] - The net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1.48 billion, 9.4 billion, and 10.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 172%, 532%, and 16% [1] Valuation - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 103, 16, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Given the price elasticity of lithium carbonate and the company's comprehensive solid-state industry chain layout, a valuation of 25 times for 2026 is suggested, leading to a target price of 112 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

消息面上，天齐锂业公布，有关重要参股公司SQM与Codelco签署合伙协议及提起诉讼，收到智利最高 法院就诉讼作出判决书，维持智利法院裁决，该裁决驳回其提交的上诉请求，该判决为诉讼终审判决。 该集团指，上诉被驳回不改变有关减值测试相关假设，因此预计该诉讼判决暂不会对当期利润产生重大 影响。该集团将保留后续一切可能的维护公司权利途径，不排除采取进一步行动。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)盘中跌超5%，截至发稿，跌3.86%，报54.8港元，成交额2.74亿港 元。 该集团指，SQM披露子公司与Codelco的子公司合并先决条件解决，使合伙协议所涉交易生效。该集团 指，合伙协议风险方面，包括SQM丧失其核心锂业务控制权、SQM锂业务收益受到影响进而影响集团 投资回报和经济利益及集团参与SQM公司治理的权益受到影响。 ...

调控趋严、多空博弈，碳酸锂震荡走低 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 2026-01-28，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于182000元/吨，收于166280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.90%。当 日成交量为473223手，持仓量为410985手，前一交易日持仓量422433手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为5960元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单29966手，较上个交易日变化800手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价167000-177000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-500元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价164000-173000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2270美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。 碳酸锂昨日高开低走，一方面是高点回调，另一方面交易所为维护市场公平秩序，对碳酸锂品种各类违规行为保 持高压态势，一定程度上抑制了行情的急涨急跌。现货方面，由于下游库存水平较低，前期价格持续走高情况下， 现货成交情况较为清淡，但节前存在补库需求，对价格起到一定的支撑作用。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为108896吨，环比-783 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Dazhong Mining (001203.SZ) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Anhui Dazhong New Energy Investment Co., Ltd., has successfully passed the expert review by the Ministry of Natural Resources for its ecological restoration plan for the Gada Lithium Mine area [1]