来源：市场资讯 （来源：美港股观察社） 作者：Stone Fox Capital 编译：美港股观察社 从特朗普推动股价升至10美元，到Lithium Americas（下称LAC）股价显著回落至5美元以下。这家锂矿 企业虽已获得美国能源部贷款，有望完成内华达州萨克帕斯锂矿的建设，为美国国家安全保障重要锂资 源供应，但股市对其股票的兴趣已迅速降温。在经历此次大幅回调后，LAC或者值得投资者重新评判发 展前景。 特朗普相关协议 早在10月初，LAC就萨克帕斯锂矿建设事宜，与美国能源部达成了一项调整后的贷款协议。作为债务偿 还延期的交换条件，LAC需遵照特朗普总统的意愿，向美国政府让渡部分股权。 具体而言，为换取上述债务偿还延期，美国能源部将获得以下权益： ➢通过认股权证获得公司5%的股权，行使价为每股0.01美元，可凭此认购公司普通股； ➢通过认股权证获得该合资企业5%的经济权益，行使价为每单位0.01美元，对应的是合资企业的无投 票权、不可转让股权。 本质上，美国政府将持有该公司10%的权益，其中5%仅通过掌控萨克帕斯锂矿的合资企业间接持有。 美国政府此次提供的贷款总额为22.3亿美元，其中4.35亿美元已于1 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 95,400.00 | +4920.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -163,468.00 | +8642.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 343,199.00 | -21879.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -300.00 | +280.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 26,615.00 | +105.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 92,050.00 | -100.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 89,650.00 | -100.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -3,350.00 | -5020.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,180.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） | 9 ...

摩根士丹利最新研报显示，该行认为铝业的前景已有所改善，这得益于储能系统带来的需求远超其预 期，以及电力问题带来的供应挑战。因此，大摩目前预计中国宏桥盈利将有更大的增长空间。在此基础 上，大摩将中国宏桥目标价从30.6港元上调至44.7港元，并重申为首选股与"增持"评级。 中国宏桥(01378)盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，涨3.91%，报30.82港元，成交额9.4亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648) has a current carbonate production capacity of 150,000 tons, which includes 60,000 tons of Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC), 50,000 tons of Ethylene Carbonate (EC), 40,000 tons of Diethyl Carbonate (DEC), and Ethyl Methyl Carbonate (EMC) [1] Group 1 - The company’s carbonate products are utilized in downstream applications such as new energy and energy storage systems [1] - The company possesses a full industry chain advantage and a comprehensive product layout, covering mainstream products for four types of lithium battery electrolyte solvents [1] - The company aims to provide overall solutions for downstream electrolyte customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) has a current carbonate production capacity of 150,000 tons, which includes 60,000 tons of Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC), 50,000 tons of Ethylene Carbonate (EC), 40,000 tons of Diethyl Carbonate (DEC), and Ethyl Methyl Carbonate (EMC) [1] Group 1 - The company's carbonate products are utilized in downstream applications such as new energy and energy storage systems [1] - Satellite Chemical possesses a full industry chain advantage and a comprehensive product layout, covering four mainstream products used as lithium battery electrolyte solvents [1] - The company aims to provide overall solutions for downstream electrolyte customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Beijing Haibosichuang Technology Co., Ltd. and LEAG Clean Energy Co., Ltd. aims to establish a large-scale energy storage project in Germany, with a capacity of 1.6GWh, positioning it among Europe's significant battery storage facilities [3][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project, named "GigaBattery Boxberg 400," is a crucial part of LEAG's "Giga Factory" strategy, which integrates photovoltaic, wind power generation, energy storage, and hydrogen-compatible power plants [5]. - The Boxberg project will utilize Haibosichuang's 4-hour energy storage system solution, based on the proven HyperBlock III product, known for its excellent environmental adaptability and advanced cooling technology [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The project supports the regional integration of renewable energy and provides essential grid services such as peak shaving and frequency regulation, thereby enhancing energy supply security in Germany [6]. - LEAG's CEO emphasized that the project will accelerate the "Giga Factory" strategy and contribute to a carbon-neutral energy system, highlighting the indispensable role of battery storage in stabilizing renewable energy supply [6][9]. Group 3: Company Experience and Commitment - Haibosichuang has extensive experience in large-scale storage and commercial storage, having deployed over 45GWh of storage systems across more than 400 projects globally [6][7]. - The company will provide a comprehensive "turnkey" service covering project design, core equipment supply, commissioning, and long-term operational support to ensure high-quality project delivery [6][7]. Group 4: Market Context - The collaboration aligns with Germany's strategic direction to expand large-scale storage capacity, with the government recognizing storage systems as a core component of a secure, economical, and sustainable power system [7]. - The partnership is seen as a benchmark for battery storage deployment in Europe, showcasing the importance of global collaboration in advancing energy transition [9].

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem has secured a significant contract worth 3.76 trillion KRW (approximately 25.7 billion USD) for the supply of cathode materials for electric vehicle batteries, effective from November 15, 2025, to July 31, 2029, indicating strong demand in the EV sector [3]. Group 1: Contract Details - The newly acquired contract corresponds to an estimated battery shipment volume of about 60 GWh [4]. - LG Chem's existing U.S. customers include major automakers such as Toyota, General Motors, Tesla, and Hyundai [4]. - In October 2023, LG Chem signed a long-term supply contract with Toyota North America, expected to reach 2.86 trillion KRW by 2030 [4]. Group 2: Previous Agreements - In February of the previous year, LG Chem entered an eight-year supply agreement with General Motors valued at 25 trillion KRW, covering the period from 2026 to 2035 [5]. - In September of the previous year, LG Chem signed an agreement with Prime Planet Energy & Solutions (PPES) to supply cathode materials starting in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Developments - LG Chem currently has a cathode material production capacity of 150,000 tons across South Korea, China, and other regions, with a new plant under construction in Tennessee, USA, expected to produce 60,000 tons annually by 2026 [6]. - The company has also signed long-term supply contracts for core lithium battery materials with Huayou Cobalt, totaling 164,000 tons over five years [7]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - LG Chem has decided to exit the battery separator business and plans to lay off about 1,000 employees globally, focusing resources on strengthening its core areas such as cathode materials [7]. - The company is also exploring next-generation battery technologies, including sodium-ion batteries, and has signed a joint development agreement with Sinopec [7]. Group 5: LG Energy Solution's Strategy - LG Energy Solution is shifting its strategy towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) technology and expanding into the energy storage system (ESS) market to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating electric vehicle demand [8]. - The company plans to start mass production of LFP batteries in South Korea by 2027, marking its first domestic production of LFP batteries [8]. - As of the end of Q3 this year, LG Energy Solution has accumulated nearly 120 GWh of orders for energy storage batteries, primarily from North America and Europe [8]. Group 6: Market Context - Both LG Chem and LG Energy Solution's strategic shifts reflect their pursuit of new breakthroughs amid intense competition from Chinese and domestic rivals [9]. - U.S. government policies aimed at supply chain incentives are prompting companies like General Motors and Tesla to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers, which may benefit the South Korean lithium battery industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) has a current carbonate production capacity of 150,000 tons, which includes 60,000 tons of Dimethyl Carbonate (DMC), 50,000 tons of Ethylene Carbonate (EC), 40,000 tons of Diethyl Carbonate (DEC), and Ethyl Methyl Carbonate (EMC) [1] Group 1 - The company’s carbonate products are utilized in downstream applications such as new energy and energy storage systems [1] - The company possesses a full industry chain advantage and a comprehensive product layout, covering mainstream products for four types of lithium battery electrolyte solvents [1] - The company aims to provide overall solutions for downstream electrolyte customers [1]

Group 1 - The company has developed a bidirectional DC solid-state circuit breaker rated at 750VDC and 32A [2] - The new product is suitable for applications in smart buildings and energy storage systems [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a new historical high, driven by strong demand in the aluminum sector due to the rapid development of AI and electricity demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Hongqiao's stock rose over 5%, peaking at 34.08 HKD, and currently trading at 33.94 HKD with a transaction volume of 4.51 billion HKD [1] - Bank of America has raised its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2026-2030 by 5-14%, increasing the target price from 35 HKD to 38 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The aluminum sector is expected to have strong investment value due to significant electricity cost advantages, multiple growth drivers on the demand side, and tightening supply conditions [1] - Demand for aluminum is projected to grow by 2% by 2026, with notable increases expected from AI data centers, energy storage systems, and ultra-high voltage sectors [1] - Supply constraints are emerging as international producers like Century Aluminum, South32, and Rio Tinto face production cuts or shutdowns due to various electricity issues [1] Group 3: Investment Rationale - The investment rationale includes a projected dividend yield of 6-7%, the upcoming production of the Ximangdu project by the end of 2025, share buybacks, and a valuation advantage with a 9x P/E ratio expected in 2026 [1] - The cyclical nature of low-cost integrated producers like China Hongqiao is expected to diminish, leading to a potential revaluation of their stock [1]