周四指数窄幅波动，沪指尾盘收红。周四 A 股全天窄幅波动，波幅仅 27 个指数点，虽然经历了连续 8 个交易日的上涨，市场观望情绪开始加大，追 涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐 点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线，预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。 热点板块：出口占比较高的行业，以及在东南亚大规模建厂的公司适度回避。但科技自主可控中 ...

商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关税冲击持续，关注内需优质渠道 和产品龙头—行业周报》-2025.4.13 《关注老铺黄金、毛戈平等高端消费 国潮品牌—行业周报》-2025.4.6 《业绩密集披露，关注高增持续兑现 及 结 构 优 化 的 标 的 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.3.30 2025 年 3 月社零同比+5.9%，期待后续消费潜力释放 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070031 3 月社零同比+5.9%，一季度社会消费开局良好 国家统计局发布 2025 年一季度社会消费品零售总额（下简称 ...

一季度净利润增幅排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩预告日 | 业绩预告类 | 预计净利润增幅中值 | 今年以来涨跌 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期 | 型 | （%） | （%） | | | 600206 | 有研新 材 | 2025.04.15 | 预增 | 14723.00 | 1.79 | 电子 | | 301165 | 锐捷网 | 2025.04.09 | 预增 | 4726.53 | -4.58 | 通信 | | | 络 | | | | | | | 688582 | 芯动联 | 2025.04.09 | 预盈 | 2815.01 | 28.86 | 电子 | | | 科 | | | | | | | 688186 | 广大特 | 2025.03.31 | 预增 | 1504.79 | 60.33 | 钢铁 | | | 材 | | | | | | | 002734 | 利民股 | 2025.04.08 | 预盈 | 1395.38 | 45.67 | 基础化 | | | 份 | | | | | 工 | | 600969 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，公司今日公布了2024年报，共实现营业收入276.75亿元，同比下降9.32%， 实现净利润15.67亿元，同比增长292.73%，基本每股收益为0.88元，加权平均净资产收益率为8.38%。 资金面上看，该股今日主力资金净流入3468.47万元，近5日主力资金净流入2035.14万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为5.96亿元，近5日增加721.67万元，增幅为1.23%。 按申万行业统计，百联股份所属的商贸零售行业共有30家公司公布了2024年度分配方案，派现金额最多 的是中国中免，派现金额为21.72亿元，其次是小商品城、中信金属，派现金额分别为18.10亿元、8.23 亿元。（数据宝） | 2024年度商贸零售行业分红排名 | | --- | | 简称 | | 每10股送转 | 每10股派现 | 派现金额（万 | 派现占净利润比例 | | 股息率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （股） | （元） | 元） | （%） | | （%） | | 中国中 | 免 | 0.00 | 10.5 | ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——4 月第 2 期：估值普跌 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 指数 PEG & PB-ROE: 红利 PEG 值最小，科创 50 风格 PB-ROE 值最小。 大类行业估值：原材料、设备制造、工业服务、交通运输、消费、科 技历史估值皆处于 50%以下，金融地产估值高于 50%历史分位。 一级行业估值：各行业估值分化，非银金融、煤炭、石油石化、有色 金属、公用事业、交通运输、农林牧渔估值处于近一年低位。 热门概念：华为鸿蒙、机器人、中字头央企等概念处于估值三年历史 较高分位。 盈利预期：各行业盈利预期普遍小幅下调，钢铁上调幅度最大；房地 产下调幅度最大. 市场估值普跌，消费、稳定 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.86%，A股成交量732.14亿股，成交金额8621.15亿 元，比上一个交易日增加8.15%。个股方面，4829只个股上涨，其中涨停123只，501只个股下跌。从申 万行业来看，商贸零售、综合、有色金属等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.27%、3.07%、2.77%；食品饮料、 家用电器等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.07%、0.01%。（数据宝） | 国防军工 | | | | 泰豪科技 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交通运输 | 0.16 | 244.29 | -6.84 | 海汽集团 | 9.99 | | 家用电器 | -0.01 | 150.60 | 15.35 | 海信视像 | -3.11 | | 食品饮料 | -0.07 | 245.69 | -13.26 | 贝因美 | -2.60 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.82%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.36% [1][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 13,484.81 billion yuan [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, electronics, automobiles, and machinery equipment led the gains, while agriculture, coal, and real estate sectors lagged [1][6] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.8% [1][6] - Internationally, all three major U.S. indices also closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 1.56%, S&P 500 by 1.81%, and Nasdaq by 2.06% [1][6] Important News - In Q1 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale reached 15.18 trillion yuan, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][7] - As of the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7% [2][7] - The U.S. government announced a product exemption list that includes a principle stating that if the U.S. component accounts for 20% or more of the total customs value of imported goods, it will not be subject to additional tariffs [2][7] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is expected to see an increase in domestic market share due to the ongoing tariff disputes, with a focus on the optimization of the competitive landscape for mature process chips [8][10] - The Chinese Semiconductor Industry Association has issued new rules for the origin of semiconductor products, which may enhance the competitiveness of domestic products against U.S. imports [8][10] - The initiative to prioritize the procurement of domestic advanced equipment and materials aims to strengthen the supply chain's autonomy and stability [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The acceleration of the semiconductor industry's domestic production process presents investment opportunities, particularly in the area of mature process chip manufacturers [11] - The comprehensive promotion of the "immediate buy and refund" service for outbound travelers is expected to enhance the attractiveness of international tourism in China, benefiting retail and travel sectors [15]

Market Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Trump's 2.0 tariffs, highlighting that both China and the US have imposed tariffs of 125% on each other's goods, with Canada and the EU also retaliating. Recent actions indicate a potential easing of tensions, as the US announced exemptions for certain products [1][10][12] - Major asset classes experienced volatility, with the VIX index rising sharply, US Treasuries and the dollar facing sell-offs, and gold prices surpassing 3200. The report notes a significant drop in oil prices and a recovery in A-shares after a sharp decline [1][12][13] Domestic Economic Indicators - In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline at -0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a wider decline at -2.5%. The PPI-CPI gap widened, indicating a growing disparity between production and consumer prices [2][30] - The report highlights a recovery in industrial production, with specific sectors like methanol and pure alkali showing improvement, while others like tire and polyester experienced declines [2][41] International Economic Indicators - US inflation rates continued to decline in March, with the CPI at 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.8%. The report notes a decrease in energy prices contributing to this trend [3][49][50] - The report tracks significant geopolitical events, including ongoing discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, which may impact global economic stability [3][45][46] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. It emphasizes the importance of valuation in the consumer sector and the potential for recovery driven by policy support [4][43]

资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流入11.09亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨3.77%，全天净流入资金98.31亿元，其次是银行行业，日涨幅为 0.27%，净流入资金为10.43亿元。 商贸零售行业今日下跌0.98%，全天主力资金净流出25.34亿元，该行业所属的个股共100只，今日上涨 的有47只，涨停的有5只；下跌的有52只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入 的个股有33只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有8只，净流入资金居首的是南宁百货，今日净流入资金 9933.25万元，紧随其后的是益民集团、小商品城，净流入资金分别为7066.99万元、4160.24万元。商贸 零售行业资金净流出个股中，资金净流出超亿元的有6只，净流出资金居前的有王府井、永辉超市、中 国中免，净流出资金分别为5.00亿元、4.67亿元、3.66亿元。（数据宝） 沪指4月11日上涨0.45%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有16个，涨幅居前的行业为电子、汽车，涨幅 分别为3.77%、2.20%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、煤炭，跌幅分别为3.18%、1.18%。商贸零售 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.16% on April 10, with 31 out of 38 industries experiencing gains, led by the retail trade and textile sectors, which increased by 4.83% and 3.78% respectively [1] - The net inflow of capital in the two markets reached 10.043 billion yuan, with 22 industries seeing net inflows [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The electronics industry had the largest net capital inflow, totaling 3.291 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 2.58% [1] - The food and beverage sector also saw a net inflow of 1.650 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.64% [1] - Nine industries experienced net capital outflows, with the computer industry leading at a net outflow of 1.780 billion yuan, followed by the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector with an outflow of 0.897 billion yuan [1] Retail Sector Performance - The retail trade industry increased by 4.83%, with a net capital inflow of 1.623 billion yuan, and 98 out of 100 stocks in this sector rose [2] - Notably, 16 stocks hit the daily limit up, while only 2 stocks declined, with 1 stock hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks by net capital inflow in the retail sector were Kidswant with 187 million yuan, Yonghui Superstores with 174 million yuan, and Zhongbai Group with 167 million yuan [2] Notable Stocks in Retail Sector - The following stocks had significant performance in the retail sector: - Kidswant: +8.62%, turnover rate 15.63%, net inflow 187.496 million yuan [2] - Yonghui Superstores: +3.15%, turnover rate 12.29%, net inflow 174.053 million yuan [2] - Zhongbai Group: +10.06%, turnover rate 22.14%, net inflow 166.897 million yuan [2] Stocks with Capital Outflows - The stocks with the largest capital outflows included: - China Duty Free: -4.99%, net outflow of 215.799 million yuan [3] - Dongbai Group: -4.08%, net outflow of 49.823 million yuan [3] - Sumec Group: -4.48%, net outflow of 21.374 million yuan [3]