Core Viewpoint - Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE) is currently trading at $166.17, close to its one-year high of $168.04, indicating potential for further price increases based on historical patterns [1]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Over the past five years, NUE has traded within 2% of its 52-week high on four occasions while the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) was in the 20th percentile or lower, a condition that is met again today with an SVI of 28%, in the 4th percentile of its annual range [2]. - Following similar setups, NUE has shown a 75% probability of being higher one month later, with an average gain of 7.1%. A similar increase from the current price would elevate shares to $177.96, marking the highest level since February 2024 [3]. Group 2: Support Levels - In the event of a short-term pullback, there is underlying support at the 30-day moving average, which could provide a safety net for the stock price [3].

Market Overview - Stock markets ended marginally lower amid thin year-end trading, influenced by persistent foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in global equities [1] - The 30-share BSE Sensex fell for the fifth consecutive day, decreasing by 20.46 points or 0.02% to settle at 84,675.08, with a daily high of 84,806.99 and a low of 84,470.94, resulting in a fluctuation of 336.05 points [2] - The 50-share NSE Nifty ended flat, slipping 3.25 points or 0.01% to 25,938.85 [3] Sector Performance - Among the 30-Sensex firms, the biggest laggards included Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, and Titan [3] - Conversely, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, and Axis Bank were noted as the biggest gainers [3] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,759.89 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 2,643.85 crore, indicating a net outflow from foreign investors [4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, increased by 0.47% to $62.23 per barrel [4]

Market Overview - Sentiment in Asian markets remains mixed as they brace for year-end, with focus on FOMC minutes and geopolitical developments in China, the Middle East, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Stock Indices Performance - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed flat at 3,965.12, ending a nine-day winning streak, with a trading range of 3,947.42 to 3,979.99 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.50 percent to close at 13,604.07, up from 13,537.10 [2] - Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 183 points or 0.36 percent to 50,343.50, with a trading range of 50,208.50 to 50,549.00 [2] - Korea's Kospi Index decreased by 6 points or 0.15 percent to 4,214.17, trading between 4,186.95 and 4,226.36 [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 219 points or 0.86 percent to 25,854.60, with a range of 25,930.22 to 25,611.23 [4] - Australia's S&P/ASX200 closed at 8,717.10, down 9 points or 0.10 percent, with a trading range of 8,706.60 to 8,751.90 [5] - New Zealand's NZX 50 gained 22 points or 0.16 percent to close at 13,548.13, trading between 13,518.17 and 13,569.85 [6] - Wall Street closed negatively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.51 percent to 48,746.93 and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.50 percent to 23,474.35 [7] Company Performance - Fujitsu and Nidec Corp both rallied more than 2.2 percent [3] - Dainippon Screen Mfg Co, Murata Mfg Co, and Nitori Holdings Co gained over 1 percent [3] - Sumitomo Metal Mining led losses with a decline of 4.8 percent, followed by Rakuten, Japan Steel Works, Mitsubishi Materials Corp, and TOTO, all losing more than 2 percent [3] - Netwealth Group rebounded by 2.1 percent, while Temple & Webster Group, Mirvac Group, Santos, and Centuria Capital Group all rallied more than 1.5 percent [5] - Silex Systems and Liontown both plunged more than 4.7 percent, with Newmont Corp losing 4.1 percent and Catalyst Metals and Evolution Mining losing more than 3 percent [5] - Synlait Milk topped gains with a surge of 3.2 percent, while Pacific Edge, NZX, Scales, and Sanford all rallied more than 2 percent [6] - KMD Brands, Summerset Group, Serko, and Genesis Energy all declined by more than 1 percent [6]

□ 金刚沈雯佳 重点行业绿色低碳转型并非一蹴而就，在实践中仍面临不少现实难题，集中体现在"愿不愿意转"和"能 不能转"两个方面。一方面，部分企业转型动力不足，不愿意转。节能降碳改造通常涉及工艺升级、设 备更新，短期内只有合规收益，经济收益难以迅速体现。在"内卷式"竞争的背景下，一些企业更倾向于 维持既有生产模式，对转型持观望态度。同时，我国不同地区监管标准和执行力度存在显著差异，也给 了相关企业通过易地搬迁躲避治理的空间，进一步制约了转型积极性。另一方面，一些企业即便具备转 型意愿，也受到现实能力约束，面临不能转的问题。重点行业节能降碳改造资金需求大、技术门槛高， 往往需要大规模、长期性的持续投入，而融资渠道受限、资本成本偏高等因素，使部分企业陷入"想转 却转不了"的困境。 夯实金融支点，既要用好绿色信贷形成刚性约束，也要通过转型金融提供必要支撑，更要以数智技术提 升政策执行和资源配置的有效性。只有在约束与激励并重、压力与支持并行的框架下，才能形成推动重 点行业节能降碳改造的长效机制，为实现我国"双碳"目标、推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长 提供坚实保障。 (作者分别为南京大学商学院副教授；苏银理财有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - Commercial Metals (CMC) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its improving earnings outlook and analysts' increasing earnings estimates [1][2]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - The trend of rising earnings estimate revisions reflects growing analyst optimism regarding the earnings prospects of Commercial Metals, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [2]. - For the current quarter, the earnings estimate is projected at $1.55 per share, marking a significant increase of +98.7% compared to the same period last year, with a 13.89% rise in consensus estimates over the last 30 days [6]. - For the full year, the expected earnings are $7.05 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of +125.2%, with one estimate raised and no negative revisions in the past month [7]. Zacks Rank and Performance - Commercial Metals currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), which is based on favorable estimate revisions and has historically shown strong performance, with Zacks 1 Ranked stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 2008 [3][8]. - Stocks with Zacks Rank 1 and 2 (Buy) have been shown to significantly outperform the S&P 500 [8]. Stock Performance - The stock has appreciated by 11.7% over the past four weeks due to strong estimate revisions, suggesting potential for further upside [9].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that successful investing is not about finding a single magic formula but rather about stacking multiple durable advantages, specifically value, momentum, trend, and credit [2][12][29] Value - Value investing is highlighted as the foundation for reducing risk and creating future returns by purchasing assets below their worth, which builds a margin of safety [3][11] - Ternium (NYSE:TX) is presented as a strong example of value, trading at earnings and cash flow multiples below normalized cycle peaks, indicating skepticism despite improved industry discipline [17] - Friedman Industries (NASDAQ:FRD) is noted for trading at valuation levels that assume mediocre outcomes, despite improving fundamentals [22] Momentum - Momentum is described as a measure of market reward, where securities with strong relative performance tend to continue outperforming due to gradual information absorption [4][11] - ATRenew (NYSE:RERE) shows improved momentum as results stabilize, shifting investor perception from survival to normalization [20] - The momentum for Friedman Industries has confirmed the value case, with the stock breaking higher and establishing an uptrend [23] Trend - Trend serves as a primary risk management tool, helping to align investments with market conditions and reducing catastrophic drawdowns [6][12] - The article suggests that when trend is combined with value and momentum, results can become spectacular, as it enforces discipline in capital allocation [12][28] Credit - Credit is identified as a crucial yet often underappreciated cornerstone, acting as an early warning system for market stress and a measure of individual security survival [8][9] - Ternium's strong balance sheet, characterized by low leverage and ample liquidity, allows it to invest during downturns, providing a margin of safety [18] - Seaboard Corporation (AMEX:SEB) exemplifies exceptional credit strength, maintaining low leverage and diversified cash flows, making it resilient during financial stress [27] Conclusion - The combination of value, momentum, trend, and credit creates a systematic approach to investing, allowing for extraordinary results by stacking probabilities rather than relying on single insights [12][15][29]

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked a significant breakthrough for precious metals, with both silver and gold reaching all-time highs, and the overall watchlist delivering a 281% return [1] Group 1: Volt Lithium (LibertyStream Infrastructure Partners) - Volt Lithium was renamed to LibertyStream Infrastructure Partners Inc., aligning with the current administration's support for commodity independence [2] - The company increased its direct lithium extraction testing, processing over 350,000 barrels of brine and conducting more than 2,500 tests, achieving its first lithium carbonate output of approximately 10 tons per annum [3] - CEO Alex Wylie adopted a hands-on approach, spending months in the Permian Basin, and the stock increased by 295.00% year-to-date [4] Group 2: Northern Superior Resources - Northern Superior Resources focused on exploration at the Chibougamau camp, yielding intercepts as high as 12g/t Au, indicating strong growth potential [5] - The company was acquired by IAMGOLD Corp. for 0.0991 IAMGOLD shares plus 0.19 Canadian dollars in cash per share, with the transaction closing on December 19 [6] - Northern Superior achieved a remarkable return of 493.75% in 2025 [6] Group 3: Sierra Madre Gold and Silver - Sierra Madre Gold and Silver commenced production in 2025, restarting commercial production at La Guitarra and producing about 165,000 silver-equivalent ounces [7] - Earnings increased from $4.8 million to $5.5 million over three quarters, driven by higher prices, with plans for a plant expansion to increase capacity significantly by 2027 [7][8] - The company agreed to acquire Del Toro Silver Mine, which includes three permitted underground sites and a processing circuit of 3,000 tons per day, with stock gaining 300.00% year-to-date [8] Group 4: Friedman Industries - Friedman Industries experienced a challenging start to the year with a net loss in the first quarter due to pricing pressures and low order activity [9] - Earnings rebounded in the second quarter as sales volumes surged to 166,500 tons amid rising steel prices [9] - The acquisition of Century Metals & Supplies in September 2025 introduced new product lines and opened new markets, leading to a stock increase of 35.19% year-to-date [10]

Market Performance - The BSE Sensex declined by 345.91 points or 0.41% to close at 84,695.54, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline [3] - The NSE Nifty fell by 100.20 points or 0.38% to settle at 25,942.10, also registering its third day of decline [3] Sector Performance - Major laggards included Adani Ports, HCL Tech, Power Grid, Trent, Bharat Electronics, and Bharti Airtel [4] - Gainers in the market were Tata Steel, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, and Eternal [4] Market Sentiment - Market appears to be lacking catalysts for further upside, with investors in holiday mode, indicating a potential consolidation phase [4] - Market sentiment is influenced by global cues and stock-specific developments, with light trading volumes observed [5] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 317.56 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 1,772.56 crore [6] Global Market Influence - In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi increased by over 2%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices ended lower [5] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.70% to USD 61.67 per barrel [6]

Core Viewpoint - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is a leading steel producer and metal recycler, with a market cap of $25.6 billion, and is expected to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 on January 26, 2026 [1]. Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate STLD will report a profit of $2.05 per share for the upcoming quarter, reflecting a 50.7% increase from $1.36 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year, STLD's expected EPS is $8.27, which is a 16% decrease from $9.84 in fiscal 2024, but is projected to rise to $13.53 in fiscal 2026, marking a 63.6% year-over-year increase [3]. Stock Performance - STLD shares have increased by 49.8% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 14.8% gains and the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's 7.2% returns during the same period [4]. - Following the Q3 results announcement, STLD shares closed up by 2.5%, with an EPS of $2.74 exceeding Wall Street expectations of $2.66, and revenue of $4.8 billion surpassing forecasts of $4.7 billion [5]. Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on STLD stock is moderately bullish, with a "Moderate Buy" rating. Out of 13 analysts, eight recommend a "Strong Buy," one a "Moderate Buy," and four a "Hold." The average analyst price target is $179.17, indicating a potential upside of 2.2% from current levels [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Basic Materials Sector**: The report covers the basic materials sector in China, focusing on metals, steel, cement, paper, glass, and solar materials [1][2][3]. Metals - **Copper**: LME copper price increased by 2.0% WoW to US$11,764/t, while China's price decreased by 1.4% to RMB 92,640/t [1][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose by 1.3% WoW to US$2,872/t; however, China's price fell by 1.0% to RMB 21,820/t, leading to a margin squeeze of RMB 170/t WoW to RMB 5,915/t [1][15]. - **Gold**: COMEX gold price increased by 0.7% WoW to US$4,330/oz [1][11]. - **Lithium**: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) averaged RMB 97,650/t, up 3.3% WoW [1][55]. - **Uranium**: U₃O₈ spot price rose by 1.8% WoW to US$77.2/lb [1][65]. - **Cobalt**: Shanghai Changjiang cobalt price increased by 1.2% WoW to RMB 417,000/t [1][63]. - **Tungsten**: Prices accelerated due to supply shortages and import uncertainties [1]. Steel - **Price Recovery**: Rebar prices rose by 1.5% WoW to RMB 3,322/t, and HRC gained 1.2% to RMB 3,312/t [2][66]. - **Consumption**: Apparent consumption decreased by 0.5% WoW to 8.4 million tons, while inventories edged down by 0.15% to 13.3 million tons [2][66]. - **Iron Ore**: Price climbed by 3.2% WoW to USD 108.4/t [2][71]. - **Margins**: Negative margins persisted, with rebar falling to -RMB 292/t and HRC to -RMB 360/t [2][76]. Cement - **Price Trends**: National average cement price pulled back by 0.3% WoW to RMB 348/t, with regional variations [3][89]. - **Shipment Ratio**: Nationwide shipment ratio dropped by 1.4 percentage points WoW to 32.8% [3][22]. - **Inventory Ratio**: Inventory ratio decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 62.3% [3][22]. Paper and Glass - **Paper Prices**: Paper prices edged down by 0.89% WoW to RMB 3,751/t, influenced by cautious market sentiment [3][99]. - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price declined by 1.2% WoW to RMB 1,151/t due to limited demand [3][98]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: Prices for N-type polysilicon and granular silicon remained stable at RMB 53/kg and RMB 51/kg, respectively [3][112]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass declined to RMB 18.5/sqm and RMB 11.5/sqm [3][121]. - **Inventory Days**: Solar glass inventory days expanded by 8.7% WoW to 35.92 [3][123]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a shift in market sentiment from traditional off-season to anti-involution expectations, impacting pricing and consumption dynamics [2][66]. - **Utilization Rates**: Blast furnace utilization rates decreased by 0.99 percentage points WoW to 85% [2][78]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting trends and data across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.