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国信证券:维持滔搏(06110)“优于大市”评级 合理估值3.8-4港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities expresses optimism about the operational resilience and long-term cash returns of Tabo (06110), highlighting a narrowing decline in retail sales and stable gross margins despite a challenging retail environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, Tabo's revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.3 billion, with retail channel revenue at 10.6 billion (down 3.0%) and wholesale channel revenue at 1.62 billion (down 20.3%) [1] - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, generated 10.81 billion in revenue, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a 12.2% decline to 1.41 billion [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 9.8% to 790 million, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 41.0% and a net profit margin of 6.4% [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash flow decreased by 48.2% year-on-year to 1.35 billion, with a net cash ratio of 1.7 [1] - The interim dividend payout ratio was 102.2%, with a dividend of 0.13 per share [1] Group 3: Store and Membership Strategy - As of August 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased by 1,125 to 4,688 (down 19.4%), while total sales area declined by 14.1% [2] - The cumulative user base reached 89.1 million, with membership contributing 92.9% of sales, and high-value members accounting for nearly 35% of sales [2] Group 4: Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is strategically enhancing its presence in the running and outdoor segments, partnering with high-end brands and opening specialized stores [2] - Online retail business experienced double-digit growth, with significant contributions from content e-commerce and private domain operations [2]
国信证券:维持滔搏“优于大市”评级 合理估值3.8-4港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-27 08:09
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities expresses optimism about the operational resilience and long-term cash returns of Tmall (06110), highlighting a narrowing decline in retail and stable gross margins despite a challenging retail environment [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.3 billion, with retail channel revenue at 10.6 billion (down 3.0%) and wholesale channel revenue at 1.62 billion (down 20.3%) [1] - Main brand revenues (Nike, Adidas) fell by 4.8% to 10.81 billion, while other brands saw a 12.2% decline to 1.41 billion [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 9.8% to 790 million, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0% [1] - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 48.2% to 1.35 billion, with a net cash ratio of 1.7 [1] Store and Membership Strategy - As of August 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased by 1,125 to 4,688 (down 19.4%), while total sales area declined by 14.1% [2] - The cumulative user base reached 89.1 million, with membership contributing 92.9% of sales; high-value members accounted for nearly 35% of sales [2] - Online retail business experienced double-digit growth, with significant contributions from content e-commerce and private domain operations [2] Sales Trends - In the second quarter (June to August 2025), total sales for retail and wholesale businesses saw a high single-digit decline, with direct-operated store area decreasing by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter and 14.1% year-on-year [3] - Management indicated expectations for net profit to remain flat for the 2026 fiscal year, with guidance for improved net margins [3]
滔搏2025年上半财年营收123.0亿元,净利润7.9亿元
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-10-27 04:37
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.3 billion and a net profit of 790 million for the first half of the fiscal year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 2.54 billion [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - The company implements a "1+N" model in the omnichannel retail sector, centering around offline stores while integrating content e-commerce and private domain operations [1] - Online business achieved double-digit growth year-on-year, with over 800 Douyin and WeChat video accounts and more than 3,600 mini-program stores, accumulating over 89 million users [1] Group 2: Digital Transformation and Brand Expansion - The company is advancing its digital transformation, optimizing product management and circulation efficiency around integrated omnichannel strategies [1] - New brand partnerships include exclusive operations for Norwegian outdoor brand Norrøna and running brands soar and Ciele in China, alongside the introduction of the running multi-brand store brand ektos [1] Group 3: Customer Engagement and Sales Performance - Membership sales accounted for 92.9% of total retail sales from offline and mini-programs, with repeat members contributing 60% of membership consumption, highlighting high user stickiness [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on omnichannel retail, user operations, and business innovation while deepening digital empowerment [1]
交银国际每日晨报-20251027
BOCOM International· 2025-10-27 03:31
Group 1: Tongcheng Travel (同程旅行) - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 9% and profit growth of 13% in Q3, indicating stable growth despite weak performance in the travel industry due to overseas disruptions [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is set at HKD 25.50, representing a potential upside of 17.6% from the current price of HKD 21.68, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Tmall International (滔搏国际) - For the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, Tmall International's revenue is projected to decline by 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 9.8% to RMB 790 million, which is in line with expectations [2][3] - The company aims to maintain a flat year-on-year net profit for the full year, with an improvement in net profit margin, despite ongoing sales pressure and increased discounts [2][3] Group 3: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,160, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 27.24% [4] - Major commodities such as Brent crude oil and gold have shown price fluctuations, with Brent down 11.53% year-to-date and gold up 56.64% [4] - The report highlights the performance of various global indices, with the S&P 500 up 15.47% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up 20.17% [4] Group 4: Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. durable goods orders for September, expected to decline by 2.7%, and China's manufacturing PMI for October, anticipated to be at 49.80 [5]
滔搏(6110.HK):弱零售下新品售罄亮眼 延续高派息
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:03
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 12.3 billion yuan for FY25/26 H1, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and a net profit of 790 million yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, while proposing an interim dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 102.2% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The main brands (Nike + Adidas) and other brands (PUMA + Converse + VF, etc.) saw revenue declines of 4.8% and 12.2%, respectively, with total revenues of 10.81 billion yuan and 1.41 billion yuan, accounting for 87.9% and 11.5% of total revenue [1] - Retail and wholesale businesses experienced declines of 3.0% and 20.3%, with revenues of 10.60 billion yuan and 1.62 billion yuan, while online retail achieved double-digit growth [2] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, primarily due to increased discounts from a higher proportion of online sales, although retail sales and brand support partially offset this impact [2] - The end-of-period inventory decreased by 4.7% to 5.83 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days increasing by 1.7 days to 150 days [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities fell by 48.2% to 1.36 billion yuan, influenced by changes in accounts receivable and payable [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through a comprehensive retail strategy and expanding its presence in running and outdoor segments, adding new partner brands and opening a multifunctional running community store in Shanghai [3] - The company aims to improve profitability and maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expectations for profit stability in FY26 and improved margins in the long term [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-27 down by 20% and 23% to 1.30 billion yuan and 1.49 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a forecast of 1.70 billion yuan for FY28 [3] - The target price is set at 4.0 HKD, reflecting a PE ratio of 15.2x for FY27, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the company's leading position in comprehensive retail and attractive dividend yield [3]
滔搏(06110.HK):聚焦全域零售和运营效率 保持高比例派息
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:03
Core Viewpoint - The company's 1HFY26 performance met expectations, with a revenue decline of 6% year-on-year to 12.3 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 10% to 800 million yuan, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 102% [1][2]. Performance Review - Revenue was impacted by fluctuations in terminal retail, leading to a focus on optimizing offline channels and expanding online retail operations [1]. - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, saw a revenue decline of 5%, accounting for 88% of total revenue, while other brands experienced a 12% decline [1]. - Direct sales and wholesale revenues fell by 3% and 20% respectively, with a total of 4,688 direct stores, a decrease of 332 stores from the beginning of the fiscal year [1]. - The company opened a new running concept store, ektos, in Shanghai, showcasing innovation in offline retail formats [1]. - Online retail sales grew by double digits, supported by a diversified operational model [1]. Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 41%, influenced by increased promotional activities in online sales and a higher retail proportion [2]. - The overall expense ratio only increased by 0.1 percentage points to 33.2%, demonstrating effective cost management despite revenue decline [2]. - The net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4%, with a net profit decline of 9.8% [2]. - Inventory management was effective, with a 4.7% decrease in inventory by the end of August [2]. - The operating cash flow was healthy, with a net cash flow of 1.35 billion yuan, supporting a high dividend payout ratio [2]. Development Trends - Management indicated that terminal retail performance in September and October would align with 2QFY26, focusing on profit maintenance and improvement in net profit margin for FY26 [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 at 0.21 yuan and 0.26 yuan respectively, with current stock prices reflecting 15 and 12 times the FY26 and FY27 earnings [2]. - The target price has been raised by 23% to 4.17 HKD, corresponding to 18 and 15 times the FY26 and FY27 earnings, indicating a potential upside of 20% [2].
TOPSPORTS INTERNATIONAL(6110.HK):STILL FIGHTING AGAINST THE TIDE OF A STRUCTURAL SHIFT
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:03
Core Viewpoint - Topsports reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 1HFY26, attributed to ongoing challenges in offline retail, but aims to maintain a stable net profit and improve net profit margin for the full year [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 5.8% YoY to RMB12,299 million, while net profit fell by 9.7% YoY to RMB788 million, with total sales down by mid-single digits to high-single digits YoY in both Q1 and Q2 [2] - Gross profit margin remained stable at 41.0%, slightly down from 41.1% in 1HFY25, supported by incentives from brand partners [2] - The company closed 332 stores, reducing total store count to 4,688, a 19% YoY decline, and cut headcount by 16% YoY, leading to a 12% YoY reduction in rental expenses [2] Future Outlook - Topsports reiterated its full-year guidance of flattish net profit and improving net profit margin, implying an estimated 23% YoY growth in net profit for 2HFY26 [3] - The company is focusing on omni-channel expansion, including store-based livestreaming, to mitigate the impact of weaker offline sales [2][3] Brand Dependency - Revenue from Nike and Adidas remains critical, contributing 87.9% to total revenue, with a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points YoY [4] - Nike's recent updates indicate a prolonged recovery period in the Greater China market, adding uncertainty to Topsports' sales outlook [4] Valuation and Rating - The target price has been raised to HK$3.5 based on a 14x FY2027E P/E ratio [7] - The company maintains a HOLD rating, with an attractive dividend yield of over 9%, but faces potential share price pressure post-dividend date if fundamentals do not improve [6]
瑞银:升滔搏(06110)目标价至4.06港元 评级“买入”
智通财经网· 2025-10-24 09:25
Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Tmall (06110) experienced a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of 6% and 10% respectively for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, amounting to 12.299 billion yuan and 789 million yuan. The net profit aligns with UBS's expectations but is better than the market's anticipated 16% decline due to a slight revenue drop being offset by higher gross margins and reduced financial expenses [1] Group 1 - Tmall's management maintains guidance for flat net profit and improved net profit margin for the entire 2026 fiscal year, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency [1] - UBS raises the target price from 3.55 HKD to 4.06 HKD and adjusts net profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 upwards by 0% to 5% to reflect the long-term recovery prospects of American brand partners, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]
交银国际:维持滔搏“中性”评级 2026上半财年销售仍然承压
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The management of the company maintains guidance for full-year net profit to be flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin, while recent sales trends are similar to those in the second quarter, with discounts deepening year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, the company's revenue was 12.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, primarily due to fluctuations in consumer demand for sports products and offline foot traffic [1] - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, impacted by discount changes and an increase in online revenue share, although the contribution from retail business and support from brand partners partially offset negative effects [1] - The net profit for the first half of the year was 790 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, which was broadly in line with expectations [1] Group 2: Brand and Store Management - By brand, the main brand and other brands saw year-on-year declines of 4.8% and 12.2% respectively, with the main brand performing better than others and the overall performance [2] - The company is actively collaborating with main brands to improve online and offline channel management and overall discount levels [2] - The company plans to deepen its focus on running and outdoor segments, developing new brands such as norda, soar, Ciele, and Norr?na [2] Group 3: Store Structure and Online Business - As of August 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased by 332 to 4,688, continuing a downward trend, while total sales area decreased by 14.1%, but the average store area increased by 6.5% year-on-year [2] - The company is implementing a "selection + optimization" principle, applying stricter standards for new and renovated stores, resulting in larger store areas with more restrained renovation investments [2] - Online retail business experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with the company exploring a multi-dimensional operational model of "1 (offline store) + N (online multi-scenario layout)" [2]
交银国际:维持滔搏(06110)“中性”评级 2026上半财年销售仍然承压
智通财经网· 2025-10-24 08:02
Core Viewpoint - The management of the company maintains guidance for full-year net profit to remain flat year-on-year, with an improvement in net profit margin, while recent sales trends are similar to those in the second quarter, although discounts have deepened year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the company's revenue was 12.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, primarily due to fluctuations in consumer demand for sports products and offline foot traffic [1] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, impacted by discount changes and an increase in online revenue share, although the contribution from retail business and support from brand partners partially offset negative effects [1] - The operating expense ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points to 33.2%, benefiting from rental structure and operational team optimization; the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4%, with net profit declining by 9.8% to 790 million RMB, roughly in line with expectations [1] Brand Performance - By brand, the main brand and other brands saw year-on-year declines of 4.8% and 12.2% respectively, with the main brand performing better than other brands and the overall performance [2] - The company is actively collaborating with the main brand to improve online and offline channel management and enhance overall discount levels [2] Store Management and Strategy - The company continues to adjust its store structure and improve quality, with a net decrease of 332 directly operated stores to 4,688 as of August 2025, indicating a downward trend; total sales area decreased by 14.1%, but average store area increased by 6.5% year-on-year [2] - The management noted ongoing pressure on offline foot traffic, with a double-digit decline in same-store traffic during the period; the company is implementing stricter standards for new and renovated stores under the "selection + optimization" principle [2] - Online retail business experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with the company exploring a diversified operational model of "1 (offline store) + N (online multi-scenario layout)" [2]