Market Overview - On September 11, the oil service engineering sector rose by 0.15% compared to the previous trading day, with CNOOC Development leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] Individual Stock Performance - CNOOC Development (600968) closed at 3.97, with an increase of 1.28% and a trading volume of 620,900 shares, totaling a transaction value of 244 million yuan [1] - CNOOC Engineering (600583) closed at 5.39, up 0.75%, with a trading volume of 425,400 shares and a transaction value of 228 million yuan [1] - PetroChina Engineering (600871) closed at 2.10, up 0.48%, with a trading volume of 1,144,800 shares and a transaction value of 238 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Renji Co. (002629) at 7.20 (+0.42%) and Yingshisi (601808) at 13.91 (+0.36%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 126 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 157 million yuan [2] - The table indicates that CNOOC Development had a net inflow of 43.45 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.67 million yuan [3] - CNOOC Engineering saw a net inflow of 10.30 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 1.61 million yuan [3] Summary of Key Stocks - CNOOC Development (600968) had a significant institutional net inflow of 43.45 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.67 million yuan [3] - CNOOC Engineering (600583) had a net inflow of 10.30 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors seeing a net outflow of 1.61 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like PetroChina Engineering (600871) and Renji Co. (002629) also showed varied capital flows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The oil service engineering sector increased by 1.61% on September 10, with Tongyuan Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] - Major stocks in the oil service engineering sector showed significant price increases, with Tongyuan Petroleum rising by 14.88% to a closing price of 6.10 [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the oil service engineering sector was 334 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 291 million yuan [1] - The table of fund flows indicates that Tongyuan Petroleum had a main fund net inflow of 154 million yuan, accounting for 9.95% of its total [2] - Other notable stocks included Zhun Oil Co., which saw a main fund net inflow of 104 million yuan, representing 26.36% of its total [2]

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The oil supply and demand are showing signs of easing, with expectations for a strong performance in the petrochemical industry during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5] - In August 2025, Brent crude oil maintained a wide fluctuation, closing around $68.12 per barrel, with OPEC+ agreeing to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [5][6] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel for the remainder of the year, influenced by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] Group 2: Machinery Equipment Industry - In August 2025, excavator sales reached 16,523 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with domestic sales growing by 14.8% [10][11] - From January to August 2025, total excavator sales were 154,181 units, up 17.2% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 21.5% [10][11] - Major domestic machinery manufacturers such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion reported significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with net profits increasing by 46.0%, 16.63%, and 20.84% respectively [12][14] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Trends - The U.S. employment data was significantly revised downwards, indicating a loss of 910,000 jobs, which may impact economic growth and market sentiment [16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a special action plan for "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing," aiming to enhance the intelligent transformation of key industries [17] - The A-share market showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.51% to close at 3,807 points, indicating a cautious market sentiment [19][20]

Market Performance - The oil service engineering sector increased by 0.65% on September 5, with Beiken Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] Stock Performance - Beiken Energy (002828) closed at 10.63, up 2.90% with a trading volume of 136,300 shares and a turnover of 143 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Qianeng Hengxin (300191) at 20.91, up 2.85% [1] - Daoxian Petroleum (300164) at 5.29, up 2.72% [1] - Renji Co., Ltd. (002629) at 7.17, up 2.28% [1] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) at 7.57, up 2.16% [1] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net inflow of 43.6 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 56.1 million yuan [2][3] - The main stocks with significant capital flow included: - PetroChina Oilfield Services (600871) with a net inflow of 36.1 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CNOOC Engineering (600583) with a net inflow of 35.8 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) with a net inflow of 5.2 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 4, the oil service engineering sector declined by 1.05%, with Renji Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3765.88, down 1.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12118.7, down 2.83% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the oil service engineering sector showed varied performance, with potential gains for some and losses for others: - Qianeng Hengxin (300191) closed at 20.33, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 65,300 shares [1] - Beiken Energy (002828) closed at 10.33, up 1.18% with a trading volume of 140,500 shares [1] - Other notable declines included: - Renji Co. (002629) down 8.33% [1] - Shihua Oil Service (600871) down 6.70% [2] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 123 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 85.91 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Haiyou Engineering (600583) had a main fund net inflow of 28.32 million yuan [2] - Renji Co. (002629) faced a significant main fund net outflow of 9.67 million yuan [2] - The overall sentiment reflected a cautious approach from institutional investors while retail investors showed some interest [2]

证券之星消息，9月3日油服工程板块较上一交易日下跌1.72%，准油股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3813.56，下跌1.16%。深证成指报收于12472.0，下跌0.65%。油服工程板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002629 | 仁智股份 | 7.27 | 0.69% | 25.03万 | 1.83亿 | | 600968 | 海油发展 | 3.96 | -1.00% | 54.61万 | 2.17亿 | | 603727 | 博迈科 | 13.95 | -1.34% | 2.80万 | 3922.31万 | | 600871 | 石化油服 | 2.05 | -1.44% | 89.47万 | 1.85亿 | | 601808 | 中海油服 | 13.83 | -1.50% | 12.20万 | 1.69亿 | | 60361a | 中曼石油 | 19.08 | -1.50% | 9.05万 | 1.75亿 | | 300164 | 通源石油 | 5.33 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6][5]. Core Views - The company plans to raise 5.913 billion RMB through a private placement to its controlling shareholder, China National Petroleum Corporation, to strengthen its foundation in the Middle East market [1][4]. - The raised funds will be primarily used for project construction and to supplement working capital, including significant projects in Iraq and the UAE [2][4]. - The Iraq seawater pipeline project is expected to enhance the company's position in the Middle East, with a contract value of approximately 25.24 billion USD (about 180.32 billion RMB) [3][4]. - The fundraising is anticipated to improve the company's international competitiveness and support high-quality development, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 658.46 million RMB, 739.12 million RMB, and 800.75 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89.81 billion RMB, 93.53 billion RMB, and 97.18 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 4.54%, 4.13%, and 3.91% respectively [5][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.12 RMB, 0.13 RMB, and 0.14 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][12].

Market Overview - The oil service engineering sector experienced a decline of 0.63% on September 2, with Huibo leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the oil service sector included: - Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) with a closing price of 5.42, up 2.07% [1] - Zhun Oil Co. (002207) at 7.85, up 1.82% [1] - Keli Co. (920088) at 38.84, up 1.65% [1] - Major decliners included: - Huibo (002554) at 2.90, down 6.75% [2] - Renji Co. (002629) at 7.22, down 4.24% [2] - CNOOC Development (600968) at 4.00, down 1.72% [2] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 19.57 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Tongyuan Petroleum had a net outflow of 32.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Beiken Energy (002828) had a net inflow of 13.98 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - CNOOC Engineering (600339) experienced a net outflow of 3.86 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

Market Overview - On September 1, the oil service engineering sector rose by 1.04%, with Renji Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Renji Co., Ltd. (002629) closed at 7.54, with a gain of 10.07% and a trading volume of 324,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 239 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. (002207) at 7.71, up 4.76% [1] - Beiken Energy (002828) at 10.50, up 2.94% [1] - Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) at 5.31, up 2.31% [1] - CNOOC Development (600968) at 4.07, up 2.01% [1] Capital Flow - The oil service engineering sector experienced a net outflow of 37.07 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.85 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Renji Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 60.61 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 30.87 million from retail investors [3] - Zhun Oil Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 21.75 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.83 million from retail investors [3] - CNOOC Development had a net inflow of 13.31 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 21.32 million from retail investors [3]