Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a balanced stock-bond allocation strategy to navigate market fluctuations and achieve stable long-term returns, particularly in the context of the current market conditions where valuations are approaching high levels [5][9][29]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Balance - The stock-bond balance strategy, first proposed by Benjamin Graham, aims to construct a portfolio using low-correlated assets to mitigate overall volatility while achieving average market returns [8]. - Historical data from 2005 to 2022 shows that different stock-bond allocations yield varying returns and risks, highlighting the need for investors to understand their own risk tolerance when determining their allocation [14][16]. Group 2: Allocation Strategies - Fixed Method: This method suggests maintaining a 50:50 stock-bond ratio, with periodic rebalancing to keep the allocation balanced as market conditions change [19][20]. - Dynamic Method: This approach allows for a more flexible allocation, keeping stock exposure between 30% and 70%, adjusting based on market valuations to optimize returns [21][22]. - Age-Based Method: This strategy recommends adjusting equity exposure based on age, with younger investors taking on more risk and older investors favoring bonds to reduce volatility [26][28]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Investor Behavior - The current market environment, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and valuations nearing 60°C, presents both opportunities and challenges for investors [5][29]. - Investors often struggle with emotional decision-making, leading to a cycle of chasing gains and fearing losses, which can be mitigated through disciplined adherence to a balanced allocation strategy [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields by the end of 2025, predicting a 10-year yield of 4.5% and a 2-year yield of 3.9% due to various economic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Predictions - The U.S. economy continues to grow above potential levels, with a tight labor market driving wage increases [3]. - The pace of inflation decline is slowing, with core PCE potentially not reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target until 2026 [3]. - Expectations for a rate cut cycle have been delayed, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the median federal funds rate to remain between 4.0% and 4.25% in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Implications of Yield Changes - An increase in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% may lead to significant adjustments in cross-asset allocations, potentially suppressing valuations in the tech sector due to rising corporate financing costs [3]. - Rising borrowing costs may pressure the real estate and high-yield bond markets [3]. - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields could lead to a return of foreign capital, increasing volatility in emerging market currencies [3]. - Traditional investment strategies may need reevaluation as the "stock-bond balance" strategy becomes ineffective [3]. Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Goldman Sachs warns of risks from economic overheating and policy missteps, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts could drive energy prices higher, potentially pushing the 10-year yield up to 5% in the short term [4]. - If the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates early due to financial stability risks, the yield curve may experience a steepening reversal [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamic balance of stock-bond portfolios, emphasizing its psychological benefits for investors, particularly in maintaining a sense of control during market fluctuations [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Control in Investment - Control is a crucial psychological concept that refers to an individual's belief in their ability to influence their environment, which is essential for emotional stability and overall well-being [4]. - There are two types of control: primary control, which involves direct actions to change external circumstances, and secondary control, which involves adjusting one's mindset to adapt to reality [5][6]. Group 2: Impact of Stock-Bond Balance on Investor Psychology - Investors often feel helpless during market downturns, especially when fully invested in stocks, leading to irrational decisions like panic selling [7]. - A balanced stock-bond portfolio allows investors to take proactive measures, such as selling bonds to buy stocks at lower prices, thus restoring a sense of control [12]. Group 3: Mechanisms of Stock-Bond Balance - A typical stock-bond portfolio, such as the "60/40" strategy, involves allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds, providing both growth potential and stability [8]. - Dynamic rebalancing is necessary when market fluctuations cause the actual asset allocation to deviate from the target, allowing investors to maintain their desired risk profile [9][10]. Group 4: Psychological Advantages of Stock-Bond Balance - The stock-bond balance strategy provides a structured approach to investing, reducing anxiety by allowing investors to act according to predetermined rules [18]. - The inherent lower volatility of a stock-bond portfolio compared to a 100% stock investment leads to a more comfortable holding experience, which is crucial for long-term investment success [19]. Group 5: Practical Suggestions for Implementing Stock-Bond Balance - Investors should establish clear rebalancing rules, such as specific thresholds for asset allocation deviations, to maintain control over their investment strategy [20]. - Documenting investment plans and rebalancing actions can enhance the sense of control and organization, contributing to long-term investment confidence [21]. - Setting an appropriate stock-bond ratio based on individual risk tolerance is essential for achieving a balanced and sustainable investment approach [22].