Report Industry Investment Ratings - Automobile Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Geely Automobile [44] - Logistics and Warehousing Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for the express delivery sector, continue to be optimistic about the opportunity for earnings and valuation repair of express delivery companies [22] - Real Estate Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating, expecting further adjustments to housing provident fund policies [32] - Yeast Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Angel Yeast [35] - Industrial Automation Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Yiheda [40] - Online Music Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for NetEase Cloud Music [54] - Steel Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Shougang Co., Ltd. [58] - Internet Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings [63] - Software Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Kingdee International [67] - Luggage Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for Samsonite [73] - Motorcycle Industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating for CF Motopower, and raise the target price [77] Core Views - **Macro Economy**: In July 2025, there was a divergence between money and credit. The growth rate of social financing stock increased, but loan growth turned negative. The growth rates of M2 and M1 both rebounded. The divergence was mainly due to the need to boost effective demand and the weakening of the scale complex of financial institutions. The government played an important role in credit expansion, and private sector asset - liability sheet repair influenced money - related phenomena [2][3][4] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A - shares has been increasing, and the dependence on overseas liquidity has been weakening. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are more closely related to the Chinese mainland. These changes may reflect new changes in the investment environment of Hong Kong stocks [6][7][8] - **Robot Industry**: The humanoid robot industry is driven by both "technology deepening" and "scenario implementation". Figure 02 has achieved breakthroughs in folding clothes and has innovative designs in dexterous hands, indicating the penetration from industrial to household scenarios [10][12][14] - **Solar Energy Industry**: The prices of the solar energy industry chain have stabilized, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Some companies plan to cut production in September, which will support prices, and the photovoltaic sector has continuous layout opportunities [16] - **Logistics and Warehousing Industry**: The "anti - involution" in the express delivery industry in 2021 - 2022 drove the double repair of performance and valuation. In 2025, the "anti - involution" intensity exceeded expectations, alleviating short - term competition pressure and ensuring long - term healthy competition [20][21] - **Real Estate Industry**: The housing provident fund system has played an important role in stabilizing the real estate market. Optimizing provident fund policies can potentially boost housing consumption, especially in second - and third - tier cities. There is still room for further adjustment of provident fund policies [30][31][32] - **Yeast Industry**: Angel Yeast's performance has continued to improve in 2025. Domestic sales have recovered, and overseas markets have maintained rapid growth. The company's internal structure adjustment has had a weakening impact, and cost and price factors have driven profit improvement [37][38] - **Industrial Automation Industry**: Yiheda's performance has accelerated growth, with significant improvement in gross profit margin, mainly driven by the lithium - battery and automotive sectors. The company is accelerating its global layout and improving its one - stop procurement platform capabilities [40][41][43] - **Automobile Industry**: Geely Automobile's operating performance in the first half of 2025 increased significantly, with a significant increase in sales volume. The company has a reasonable brand structure, and with the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, revenue and net profit are expected to continue to grow [44] - **Liquor and Beer Industry**: Zhenjiu Liudu's report has cleared risks, and the company is actively promoting new products. The new products are expected to drive the company's growth rate to improve quarter - on - quarter, taking advantage of the low - base effect in the second half of 2025 [50][51][52] - **Online Music Industry**: NetEase Cloud Music's membership subscription business has grown steadily, and it has significantly reduced promotion and advertising expenses. The company's financial structure has continued to improve, and the online music business has achieved high - quality growth, while the social entertainment business is under pressure [54][55] - **Steel Industry**: Shougang Co., Ltd.'s performance has increased due to falling raw material prices and product structure optimization. The company is building its fourth strategic product, and its depreciation expenses are expected to decrease. The industry's supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [58][59][60] - **Internet Industry**: Tencent Holdings has continued to invest in the AI field, which has promoted revenue and profit growth. Its international games have performed well, and AI has accelerated game content production. AI has also driven the iteration and upgrading of advertising and platform functions [63][64][65] - **Software Industry**: Kingdee International's revenue has grown in high - quality, and its cloud transformation has entered the harvest period. The large - enterprise business has achieved high growth, and the AI contract amount has exceeded 150 million yuan, indicating strong corporate AI application demand [67][70][71] - **Luggage Industry**: Samsonite's profitability in Q2 2025 improved quarter - on - quarter, and the decline in North American Tumi sales narrowed. The company is actively responding to US tariff adjustments, and its profitability is expected to continue to stabilize and improve in Q3 [73][74][75] - **Motorcycle Industry**: CF Motopower's mid - year report in 2025 was outstanding, with rapid growth in revenue and performance. The company's three major business lines have contributed to growth, and the electric two - wheeled vehicle business has provided a new growth curve [77][78][79] - **Financial Engineering**: Options in the domestic market provide tools for strategies. Overseas market's covered products can reduce the net - value volatility of the underlying index. The covered strategies constructed with 300ETF and 500ETF and their corresponding options have different effects in different market conditions [83][84] - **Finance**: In July 2025, social financing continued to expand, with government financing contributing the most. Credit demand from the private sector was insufficient, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and household deposits continued to move to risk assets [87][88][89] Summaries by Directory Macro专题: 《货币与信贷：为何背离》 - In July 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 9.0%, with new social financing of 1.16 trillion yuan. Government bonds increased significantly, while loans decreased. Credit decreased by 500 million yuan, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M2 and M1 rebounded. The divergence between money and credit was due to the need to boost effective demand and the weakening of the scale complex of financial institutions [2][3] 海外策略研究: 《对港股热点研究问题的思考 - 20250815》 - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A - shares has been increasing since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened. The liquidity of Hong Kong stocks has become less dependent on overseas factors, and its fundamentals are more closely related to the Chinese mainland. These changes may be due to geopolitical factors, the return of Chinese concept stocks, and the inflow of domestic capital [6][7][8] 行业跟踪报告: 机器人《Helix 模型助力 Figure 02 自主折衣，灵巧手工程创新实现突破》 - Figure 02 has mastered clothes - folding skills through algorithm optimization and data accumulation, demonstrating its technical generalization ability. Its dexterous hand design uses under - actuated modular finger components, which is an engineering innovation. The robot industry is driven by "technology deepening" and "scenario implementation", and is expected to expand from industrial to household scenarios [12][13][14] 行业跟踪报告: 太阳能《产业链价格持稳，供需情况有望修复》 - The prices of the solar energy industry chain have remained stable, with a slight increase in polysilicon prices. Some companies plan to cut production in September to relieve supply - demand pressure. The photovoltaic sector has continuous layout opportunities [16] 行业专题研究: 物流仓储《反内卷保障良性竞争，监管力度决定持续性》 - The "anti - involution" in the express delivery industry in 2021 - 2022 drove the double repair of performance and valuation. In 2025, the "anti - involution" intensity exceeded expectations, alleviating short - term competition pressure and ensuring long - term healthy competition. The regulatory intensity of the postal administration will determine the sustainability of price increases and future profit elasticity [20][21][22] 行业周报: 基础化工《全固态锂电池关键难题突破，世界机器人大会在北京开幕》 - With the development of emerging technologies, the demand for high - performance copper - clad laminates has increased. Solid - state batteries have broad application prospects, and the high - end new materials in the robot field are realizing import substitution. Chemical new - material companies such as Shengquan Group are recommended [24] 行业专题研究: 房地产《优化用途稳刚需，增加效用惠民》 - The housing provident fund system has developed rapidly in the past decade, with an expanding coverage and an increasing proportion of housing - related withdrawals. Optimizing provident fund policies can potentially boost housing consumption, especially in second - and third - tier cities. There is still room for further adjustment of provident fund policies [30][31][32] 公司半年报点评: 安琪酵母（600298）《盈利改善持续，扣非增速亮眼》 - In 2025, Angel Yeast's performance has continued to improve. Domestic sales have recovered, and overseas markets have maintained rapid growth. The company's internal structure adjustment has had a weakening impact, and cost and price factors have driven profit improvement [37][38] 公司半年报点评: 怡合达（301029）《锂电、汽车领域引领增长，毛利率提升显著；加速全球布局》 - Yiheda's performance has accelerated growth, with significant improvement in gross profit margin, mainly driven by the lithium - battery and automotive sectors. The company is accelerating its global layout and improving its one - stop procurement platform capabilities [40][41][43] 海外报告: 吉利汽车（0175）《2025 年上半年经营业绩大幅增长》 - Geely Automobile's operating performance in the first half of 2025 increased significantly, with a 47% increase in sales volume to 1.409 million vehicles. The company has a reasonable brand structure, and with the implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, revenue and net profit are expected to continue to grow [44] 海外报告: 珍酒李渡（6979）《报表释压，关注新品》 - Zhenjiu Liudu's report has cleared risks, and the company is actively promoting new products such as "Dazhen" liquor and "Bull Market News" beer. The new products are expected to drive the company's growth rate to improve quarter - on - quarter, taking advantage of the low - base effect in the second half of 2025 [50][51][52] 海外报告: 网易云音乐（9899）《会员订阅业务稳健增长，大幅削减推广及广告费用》 - NetEase Cloud Music's membership subscription business has grown steadily, and it has significantly reduced promotion and advertising expenses. The company's financial structure has continued to improve, and the online music business has achieved high - quality growth, while the social entertainment business is under pressure [54][55] 公司跟踪报告: 首钢股份（000959）《盈利修复增长，产品结构持续优化》 - Shougang Co., Ltd.'s performance has increased due to falling raw material prices and product structure optimization. The company is building its fourth strategic product, and its depreciation expenses are expected to decrease. The industry's supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [58][59][60] 海外报告: 腾讯控股（0700）《延续高质量增长，AI 建设能力不断强化》 - Tencent Holdings has continued to invest in the AI field, which has promoted revenue and profit growth. Its international games have performed well, and AI has accelerated game content production. AI has also driven the iteration and upgrading of advertising and platform functions [63][64][65] 海外报告: 金蝶国际（0268）《大型企业业务进展亮眼，合同彰显 AI 应用需求旺盛》 - Kingdee International's revenue has grown in high - quality, and its cloud transformation has entered the harvest period. The large - enterprise business has achieved high growth, and the AI contract amount has exceeded 150 million yuan, indicating strong corporate AI application demand [67][70][71] 海外报告: 新秀丽（1910）《25Q2 盈利能力环比改善，北美 Tumi 降幅收窄》 - Samsonite's profitability in Q2 2025 improved quarter - on - quarter, and the decline in North American Tumi sales narrowed. The company is actively responding to US tariff adjustments, and its profitability is expected to continue to stabilize and improve in Q3 [73][74][75] 公司半年报点评: 春风动力（603129）《中报表现亮眼，三大业务不断向上》 - CF Motopower's mid - year report in 2025 was outstanding, with rapid growth in revenue and performance. The company's three major business lines have contributed to growth, and the electric two - wheeled vehicle business has provided a new growth curve [77][78][79] 金融工程专题报告: 《基于 A 股市场的备兑策略研究》 - Options in the domestic market provide tools for strategies. Overseas market's covered products can reduce the net - value volatility of the underlying index. The covered strategies constructed with 300ETF and 500ETF and their corresponding options have different effects in different market conditions [83][84] 金融工程专题报告: 《行业轮动四象限策略综述》 - A monthly industry rotation model is constructed from four dimensions: prosperity, sentiment, technology, and macro - economy. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative return of the industry long - position portfolio was 18.1%, with a cumulative excess return of 8.3% compared to the benchmark portfolio [85] 事件点评: 《7 月金融数据全览》 - In July 2025, social financing continued to expand, with government financing contributing the most. Credit demand from the private sector was insufficient, and both corporate and household loans declined. The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and household deposits continued to move to risk assets [87][88][89]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported disappointing Q2 2025 results, with net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% at constant exchange rates, and adjusted EBITDA of $141 million, reflecting a decrease in EBITDA margin from 19.0% to 16.3% [1] Performance Summary - Q2 2025 net sales were $865 million, down 5.8% year-on-year at constant exchange rates; adjusted EBITDA was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3% compared to 19.0% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, down from $86.9 million in the previous year [1] - The company's performance was below expectations, primarily due to weaker results in Asia and North America [1] Development Trends - Management indicated that from 2021 to 2023, the company experienced significant sales growth with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outperforming the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [1] - Sales performance is expected to normalize in 2024 and 2025, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at approximately 4% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - For Q3 2025, sales performance is anticipated to be similar to Q2 2025, with a low single-digit decline expected [2] Sales Outlook - Management expects slight improvement in sales for the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by base effect, improved consumer sentiment, and clearer U.S. tariff outlook [2] - Non-travel product penetration increased, with sales accounting for 36.2% of total sales, up from 34.4% in the same period last year [2] - The lifestyle and outdoor brand Gregory, which has a sales contribution of less than 3%, saw a 14.7% year-on-year sales increase in the first half of the year at constant exchange rates [2] Profit Margin Outlook - The company anticipates a gross margin between 59% and 59.5% for 2025, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [2] - To mitigate margin pressure, the company plans to utilize inventory purchased in the first half of 2025 and implement price increases in the second half of 2025 [2] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia has further pressured gross margins, although this was partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion from 38% to 40% year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage, the company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 17% and 9% to $271 million and $316 million, respectively [2] - Despite the adjustments, the company maintains a strong market leadership position, with a target price of HKD 20, reflecting a 21% upside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecasts for Samsonite (01910) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion respectively, due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite reported 2Q25 net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% at constant exchange rates [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2Q25 was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 19.0% in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2Q25 was $71.4 million, compared to $86.9 million in the previous year [1] Group 2: Sales Outlook - The company expects sales performance in 3Q25 to be similar to 2Q25, with a low single-digit decline in sales [2] - Management anticipates a slight improvement in sales for the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven by base effects, improved consumer sentiment, and clearer U.S. tariff outlook [2] - The penetration rate of non-travel categories has increased, with sales accounting for 36.2%, up from 34.4% in the same period last year [2] Group 3: Profit Margin Outlook - CICC forecasts the company's gross margin for 2025 to be between 59% and 59.5%, impacted by U.S. tariffs [2] - The company is taking measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including utilizing inventory purchased in 1H25 and implementing price increases in 2H25 [2] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia has further pressured gross margins, although this was partially offset by an increase in direct sales ratio from 38% to 40% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecasts for Samsonite (01910) for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to $3.42 billion and $3.65 billion respectively, due to weaker sales momentum and unfavorable operating leverage [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite reported Q2 2025 net sales of $865 million, a year-on-year decline of 5.8% when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $141 million, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, down from 19.0% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $71.4 million, compared to $86.9 million in the previous year [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management noted that sales grew significantly during the post-pandemic recovery from 2021 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 37%, outpacing the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [3] - For 2024 to 2025, sales performance is expected to normalize, with long-term global passenger travel growth projected at around 4% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - Sales outlook for Q3 2025 is expected to be similar to Q2 2025, with a slight low single-digit decline in sales [3] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - CICC expects the gross margin for 2025 to be between 59% and 59.5%, impacted by U.S. tariffs on imports from major production countries [4] - The company plans to mitigate margin pressure through early inventory procurement in H1 2025 and price increases in H2 2025 [4] - The decline in high-margin sales from Asia further pressures the gross margin, although this is partially offset by an increase in direct sales proportion [4]

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Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target price for Samsonite (01910) from HKD 22 to HKD 21, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for the next 12 months, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 13.6% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Samsonite's fixed exchange rate sales decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, aligning with the bank's expectations, while reported sales fell by 4.8%, benefiting from favorable foreign exchange [1] - The bank anticipates a 6% decline in sales for the first half of the year, with a projected 4% decrease in sales for the second half, supported by foreign exchange fluctuations and price increases [1] - The management is expected to maintain stable gross margins for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Profitability and Forecasts - The report predicts that adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half will increase by 20 basis points to 16.4% due to cost savings [1] - Sales and gross margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 remain largely unchanged, but net profit estimates have been reduced by 5% to 7% due to the impact of stock-based compensation on tax rates [1] - Management has indicated that net sales will continue to improve in Q3 and the second half, despite low visibility for Q4 [1] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "highly confident outperform" rating for Samsonite, citing low valuation, continuous improvement potential, and dual listing opportunities [1] - The bank expects non-US regions, foreign exchange, and price increases to support reported sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citi has lowered the target price for Samsonite (01910) from HKD 22 to HKD 21, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for the next 12 months, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 13.6% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Samsonite's fixed exchange rate sales decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, aligning with Citi's expectations, while reported sales fell by 4.8% due to favorable foreign exchange movements [1] - Citi anticipates a 6% decline in sales for the first half of the year, with a projected 4% decrease in sales for the second half, supported by foreign exchange fluctuations and price increases [1] - The management is expected to maintain stable gross margins for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Profitability and Forecasts - The report predicts that adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half will increase by 20 basis points to 16.4% due to cost-saving measures [1] - Sales and gross margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 remain largely unchanged, but net profit estimates have been reduced by 5% to 7% due to the impact of stock-based compensation on tax rates [1] Group 3: Management Guidance - Management has indicated that net sales for Q3 and the second half of the year will continue to improve, despite low visibility for Q4 [1] - Citi expects that non-US regions, foreign exchange, and price increases will support reported sales [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for Samsonite, but it discusses the company's performance and outlook in detail, indicating a cautious but optimistic long-term view from management [5][12]. Core Insights - Samsonite's revenue and profit declined in 1H25, with net sales at USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, primarily due to weak demand in North America and Asia [2][8]. - Gross profit was USD 984 million, with a gross margin of 59.2%, down 1.0 percentage point YoY, affected by lower sales from higher-margin regions and increased promotions [2][8]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 19.4% YoY to USD 269 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2% [2][8]. - Management remains optimistic about long-term consumption demand despite short-term pressures from trade policy changes and macroeconomic uncertainties [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, net sales were USD 1.662 billion, down 6.0% YoY, with gross profit at USD 984 million, down 7.6% YoY, and adjusted net profit at USD 123 million, down 29.1% YoY [2][8]. - The adjusted free cash flow was USD 11.5 million, a decrease of USD 70 million YoY, with net debt increasing to USD 1.162 billion [2][8]. Regional Performance - Revenue in Asia was USD 626 million, down 7.3% YoY, with significant declines in China, South Korea, and Hong Kong [3][9]. - North America saw revenue of USD 561 million, down 7.7% YoY, with all brands declining, particularly American Tourister [3][9]. - Europe experienced modest growth, with revenue at USD 379 million, up 1.6% YoY, driven by strong performance in Germany [3][9]. Channel Performance - The DTC channel share rose to 39.6%, with e-commerce accounting for 11.3% and offline retail at 28.3% [4][10]. - Wholesale revenue fell 7.4% YoY, primarily due to cautious procurement by wholesale customers amid economic uncertainty [4][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is addressing tariff impacts through price increases and supplier negotiations, aiming to offset negative effects in North America [5][11]. - Management plans to enhance brand competitiveness through product innovation and expansion of the Tumi brand [5][11]. Management Outlook - Management expects improvement in the Chinese and Indian markets in the second half of 2025, with a generally stronger performance in the second half compared to the first [12].

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (1910.HK) experienced a stock price increase of over 7%, reaching HKD 17.72, despite reporting a 30% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders at USD 118 million [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales revenue for the period was USD 1.662 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in sales was attributed to increased macroeconomic uncertainties and changes in trade policies, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior from wholesale customers and weakened consumer sentiment [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that consumer sentiment will continue to slow, influenced by ongoing trade policy uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures affecting consumer demand [1] - There is an expectation for a possible improvement in sales revenue in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, although the economic environment and consumer demand remain difficult to predict [1]

为应付关税影响，公司在北美市场加价，并会根据新增关税而进一步调价。另外，公司会预先采购该市 场库存，同时与供应商协商以缓解汇率影响。中期将透过重新设计产品以控制成本。为反映严控经营开 支的成效，该行将2025至27年净利预测分别上调2.1%、3.7%及1.8%。 智通财经APP获悉，麦格里发布研报称，新秀丽(01910)次季收入同比跌4.8%，经调整EBITDA跌 18.1%，均符合该行预期。虽然管理层预期第三季销售将有所改善，但认为消费情绪疲弱令前景仍不明 朗。目标价由13.3元上调至14元，维持"中性"评级，认为公司下半年需求仍具挑战。 ...